M. King Hubbert

Marion King Hubbert (October 5, 1903 – October 11, 1989) was a geoscientist who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. He made several important contributions to geology, geophysics, and petroleum geology, most notably the Hubbert curve and Hubbert peak theory (a basic component of peak oil), with important political ramifications. He was often referred to as "M. King Hubbert" or "King Hubbert".

Biography

Hubbert was born in San Saba, Texas. He attended the University of Chicago, where he received his B.S. in 1926, his M.S. in 1928, and his Ph.D in 1937, studying geology, mathematics, and physics. He worked as an assistant geologist for the Amerada Petroleum Company for two years while pursuing his Ph.D., additionally teaching geophysics at Columbia University. He also served as a senior analyst at the Board of Economic Warfare. He joined the Shell Oil Company in 1943, retiring from that firm in 1964. After he retired from Shell, he became a senior research geophysicist for the United States Geological Survey until his retirement in 1976. He also held positions as a professor of geology and geophysics at Stanford University from 1963 to 1968, and as a professor at UC Berkeley from 1973 to 1976.

Hubbert was also an avid technocrat. He co-founded Technocracy Incorporated with Howard Scott. Hubbert wrote a study course^[2] that was published without authorship called Technocracy Study Course,^[3] the precedent document of that group which advocates a non-market economics form of energy accounting,^[4] in contrast to the current Price System method.^[5] Hubbert was a member of the Board of Governors, and served as Secretary of education to that organisation.^[6]

Research

A bell-shaped production curve, as originally suggested by M. King Hubbert in 1956

Hubbert made several contributions to geophysics, including a mathematical demonstration that rock in the Earth's crust, because it is under immense pressure in large areas, should exhibit plasticity, similar to clay. This demonstration explained the observed results that the Earth's crust deforms over time. He also studied the flow of underground fluids.

Hubbert is most well known for his studies on the size of oil fields and natural gas reserves, and the limits these impose on rates of oil and gas production. He predicted that, for any given geographical area, from an individual oil field to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production of the reserve over time would resemble a bell curve. Based on his theory, he presented a paper to the 1956 meeting of the American Petroleum Institute in San Antonio, Texas, which predicted that overall petroleum production would peak in the United States between 1965, which he considered most likely, and 1970, which he considered an upper-bound case.^[7] At first his prediction received much criticism, for the most part because many other predictions of oil capacity had been made over the preceding half century, but these had usually been based on the reserves-to-production ratio, had not taken into account future discoveries, and had proven false.^[8] Hubbert became famous when this prediction proved correct in 1970.

Between October 17, 1973, and March 1974, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) ceased shipments of petroleum to the United States, because of the U.S. giving relief to Israel during the Israeli–Arab war, thus causing what has been called the 1973 energy crisis.

In 1974, Hubbert projected that global oil production would peak in 1995 "if current trends continue".^[9] Various subsequent predictions have been made by others as trends have fluctuated in the intervening years. Hubbert's theory, and its implications for the world economy, remain the only factual proof about the case.

Hubbert believed that solar power would be a practical renewable energy replacement for fossil fuels, and that nuclear energy in breeder reactors would be able to sustain us for centuries.^[7] He also states that "provided world population can somehow be brought under control, we may at last have found an energy supply (uranium) adequate for our needs for at least the next few centuries of the 'foreseeable future.'"^[10]

Contributions

Hubbert's contributions to science have been summarized^[11] as follows:

• Correct statement of Darcy's Law.
• Mathematical demonstration that rock in the Earth's crust is plastic, and that the Earth's crust deforms over time.
• Prediction of migration paths of hydrocarbons.
• Predictions of peak rates of oil and gas production, based on a consistent mathematical model which ties reserves, discovery rates, and production rates. His model remains highly influential, and has been widely applied to other finite resources.

Renewable resources

• Fisheries: At least one researcher has attempted to perform Hubbert linearization (Hubbert curve) on the whaling industry, as well as charting the transparently dependent price of caviar on sturgeon depletion.^[12] The Atlantic northwest cod fishery was a renewable resource, but the numbers of fish taken exceeded the fish's rate of recovery. The end of the cod fishery does match the exponential drop of the Hubbert bell curve. Another example is the cod of the North Sea.^[13] The comparison of the cases of fisheries and of mineral extraction tells us that the human pressure on the environment is causing a wide range of resources to go through a depletion cycle which follows a Hubbert curve.

Accolades

Hubbert was a member of the National Academy of Sciences and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He was long affiliated with the Geological Society of America, receiving their Arthur L. Day Medal in 1954, being elected President of the Society in 1962, and receiving the Society's Penrose Medal in 1973. He received the Vetlesen Prize from the G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation and Columbia University in 1981. He also received the Elliott Cresson Medal in 1981.

Unsourced quotes

• Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know.
• I was in New York in the 30’s. I had a box seat at the depression. I can assure you it was a very educational experience. We shut the country down because of monetary reasons. We had manpower and abundant raw materials. Yet we shut the country down. We’re doing the same kind of thing now but with a different material outlook. We are not in the position we were in 1929–30 with regard to the future. Then the physical system was ready to roll. This time it’s not. We are in a crisis in the evolution of human society. It’s unique to both human and geologic history. It has never happened before and it can’t possibly happen again. You can only use oil once. You can only use metals once. Soon all the oil is going to be burned and all the metals mined and scattered.

Hubbert on peak oil

Hubbert explaining some aspects of world wide 'peak' oil 1976 video clip of M King Hubbert speaking about fossil fuel depletion on YouTube.

See also

• Bioeconomics (biology)
• Fred Meissner

Notes

External links

Wikiquote has quotations related to: M. King Hubbert

• M. King Hubbert Bibliography
• M. King Hubbert papers at the University of Wyoming - American Heritage Center

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