Friedman's k-percent rule

Friedman's k-percent rule is the monetarist proposal that the money supply should be increased by the central bank by a constant percentage rate every year, irrespective of business cycles. Milton Friedman coauthored a book with Anna Schwartz to summarise a historical analysis of monetary policy, called "Monetary History of the United States 1867-1960". The book attributed inflation to excess money supply generated by a central bank. It attributed deflationary spirals to the reverse effect of a failure of a central bank to support the money supply during a liquidity crunch. Friedman proposed a fixed monetary rule, called Friedman's k-percent rule, where the money supply would be calculated by known macroeconomic and financial factors, targeting a specific level or range of inflation.

Under this rule, there would be no leeway for the central reserve bank as money supply increases could be determined "by a computer" and business could anticipate all monetary policy decisions.^[1]^[2]

Definition

According to Friedman, "The stock of money [should be] increased at a fixed rate year-in and year-out without any variation in the rate of increase to meet cyclical needs" (Friedman, 1960). Friedman was of the view that the main policy to be avoided is countercyclical monetary policy, the standard Keynesian policy recommendation at the time. He believed giving governments any flexibility in setting money growth would lead to inflation and therefore, the central bank should follow an acyclical monetary policy and expand the money supply at a constant rate, equivalent to the rate of growth of real GDP.

Monetary policy

Monetary policy is the process by which the monetary authority of a country controls the supply of money, often targeting a rate of interest for the purpose of promoting economic growth and stability. The official goals usually include relatively stable prices and low unemployment.

Framing the monetary policy is a very complicated and difficult task as balance has to be maintained between different economic variables. A tradeoff usually has to be made between these economic variables. Policymakers often make use of monetary rules like Friedman's k-percent rule or the Taylor rule to design more effective monetary policies.

Rules vs. discretion in monetary policies

Many economists have argued whether using preset rules in framing monetary policies is better than the discretion of the policy maker or not. The rules vs. discretion debate was the mainstream argument of monetary policy framing in the 1960s to the 1980s and there is still no single opinion on what is better. However, some economists like John B. Taylor are inclined towards using rules rather than discretion. Taylor said, "You do not prevent bailouts by giving the government more power to intervene in a discretionary manner. You prevent bailouts by requiring adequate capital based on simple, enforceable rules and by making it possible for failing firms to go through bankruptcy without causing disruption to the financial system and the economy," indicating a clear preference for rules rather than discretion in monetary policies.

Economists and policy makers strive to formulate monetary policies using Rules but allowing scope for discretion so as to adjust the policies appropriate to the current economic situation so as to make these policies more effective.

The Friedman's k-percent rule, however, does not allow any interference from central banks in framing the monetary policy, as Friedman believed that discretion would be counterproductive and could lead to increased levels of inflation instead of controlling it. The K-percent rule does not allow any discretion in framing of monetary policies and believes in strict adherence to the proposed rule. This has caused many economists to criticise Freidmans k-percent rule.

Modified k-percent rule

Economists and policy makers have modified Friedman's k-percent rule and have developed more sophisticated rules for framing monetary policy, using the k-percent rule as a base. Joachim Scheide, head of the Forecasting Center at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany, has modified the k-percent rule to make it more applicable in context of Germany's economy. He uses three new variables "nominal domestic demand," "central bank money," and "error term with the standard characteristics" to give a more suitable model.

The k-percent rule is considered a no feedback rule, which does not allow central banks to alter monetary policy to adjust to current economic situations; thus, it is not effective in the short term.

References

↑ Thomas Palley, "Milton Friedman: The Great Conservative Partison"
↑ Ip, Greg; Whitehouse, Mark (2006-11-17). "How Milton Friedman Changed Economics, Policy and Markets". The Wall Street Journal.

Africa	Bank of Central African States Central Bank of West African States Bank of Algeria National Bank of Angola Bank of Botswana Bank of the Republic of Burundi Bank of Cape Verde Central Bank of the Comoros Central Bank of the Congo Central Bank of Djibouti Central Bank of Egypt Bank of Eritrea National Bank of Ethiopia Central Bank of The Gambia Bank of Ghana Central Bank of the Republic of Guinea Central Bank of Kenya Central Bank of Lesotho Central Bank of Liberia Central Bank of Libya Central Bank of Madagascar Reserve Bank of Malawi Central Bank of Mauritania Bank of Mauritius Bank Al-Maghrib (Morocco) Bank of Mozambique Bank of Namibia Central Bank of Nigeria National Bank of Rwanda Central Bank of São Tomé and Príncipe Central Bank of Seychelles Bank of Sierra Leone Central Bank of Somalia Bank of Somaliland South African Reserve Bank Bank of South Sudan Central Bank of Sudan Central Bank of Swaziland Bank of Tanzania Central Bank of Tunisia Bank of Uganda Bank of Zambia Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe

Americas	Central Bank of Argentina Central Bank of Aruba Central Bank of The Bahamas Central Bank of Barbados Bermuda Monetary Authority Central Bank of Brazil Bank of Canada Central Bank of Chile Bank of the Republic (Colombia) Central Bank of Cuba Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Cayman Islands Monetary Authority Central Bank of Ecuador Bank of Guatemala Bank of the Republic of Haiti Central Bank of Honduras Bank of Jamaica Bank of Mexico Central Bank of Nicaragua Central Reserve Bank of Peru Central Bank of Suriname Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago Federal Reserve System (United States) Central Bank of Uruguay Central Bank of Venezuela

Asia	Da Afghanistan Bank Central Bank of Bahrain Bangladesh Bank Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan Brunei Currency and Monetary Board Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam National Bank of Cambodia People's Bank of China Hong Kong Monetary Authority Reserve Bank of India Bank Indonesia Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran Central Bank of Iraq Bank of Israel Bank of Japan Central Bank of Jordan National Bank of Kazakhstan National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic Bank of Korea Central Bank of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea Central Bank of Kuwait Banque du Liban Monetary Authority of Macao Bank Negara Malaysia Maldives Monetary Authority Bank of Mongolia Central Bank of Myanmar Nepal Rastra Bank Central Bank of Oman State Bank of Pakistan Palestine Monetary Authority Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Qatar Central Bank Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency Monetary Authority of Singapore Central Bank of Sri Lanka Central Bank of Syria Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) Bank of Thailand Central Bank of Turkmenistan Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates Central Bank of Uzbekistan State Bank of Vietnam Central Bank of Yemen

Europe	European Central Bank (Eurosystem) National Bank of the Republic of Abkhazia Bank of Albania Central Bank of Armenia National Bank of Austria Central Bank of Azerbaijan National Bank of the Republic of Belarus National Bank of Belgium Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgarian National Bank Croatian National Bank Central Bank of Cyprus Czech National Bank Danmarks Nationalbank (Denmark) Deutsche Bundesbank (Germany) Bank of England Bank of Estonia Bank of Finland Banque de France National Bank of Georgia Bank of Greece Hungarian National Bank Central Bank of Iceland Central Bank of Ireland Banca d'Italia Central Bank of Kosovo Bank of Latvia Bank of Lithuania Central Bank of Luxembourg National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia Central Bank of Malta National Bank of Moldova Central Bank of Montenegro De Nederlandsche Bank Norges Bank Central Bank of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus National Bank of Poland Banco de Portugal National Bank of Romania Central Bank of Russia National Bank of Serbia National Bank of Slovakia Bank of Slovenia Gosbank (Soviet Union) Bank of Spain Swedish National Bank Swiss National Bank Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey National Bank of Ukraine

Oceania	Reserve Bank of Australia Reserve Bank of Fiji Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bank of Papua New Guinea Central Bank of Samoa Central Bank of Solomon Islands National Reserve Bank of Tonga

Policies and implementation

Policies	Capital requirement Contractionary monetary policy Expansionary monetary policy Basel II Basel III Basel 4

Implementation	Capital control Discount rate Interest rates Money creation Open market operation Sovereign wealth fund

Bretton Woods system

International Monetary Fund World Bank Group International Bank for Reconstruction and Development International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes International Development Association International Finance Corporation Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency

Lists

List of central banks Central banks and currencies of Africa Central banks and currencies of the Caribbean Central banks and currencies of Central America and South America

Names in italics indicate non-sovereign (dependent) territories, former countries, or states with limited recognition

Milton Friedman

Academic career	Monetarism Friedman rule Friedman test Friedman's k-percent rule Friedman–Savage utility function Miracle of Chile Permanent income hypothesis

Works	Essays in Positive Economics (1953) Capitalism and Freedom (1962) A Monetary History of the United States (1963) Free to Choose (1980) Milton Friedman bibliography

Family	Rose Friedman (wife) David D. Friedman (son) Patri Friedman (grandson)

This article is issued from Wikipedia - version of the Thursday, February 11, 2016. The text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution/Share Alike but additional terms may apply for the media files.