Ultimate fate of the universe

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The ultimate fate of the universe is a topic in physical cosmology. Many possible fates are predicted by rival scientific hypotheses, including futures of both finite and infinite duration.

Once the notion that the universe started with a rapid inflation nicknamed the Big Bang became accepted by the majority of scientists,^[1] the ultimate fate of the universe became a valid cosmological question, one depending upon the physical properties of the mass/energy in the universe, its average density, and the rate of expansion.

There is a growing consensus among cosmologists that the universe is flat and will continue to expand forever.^[2][3] The ultimate fate of the universe is dependent on the shape of the universe and what role dark energy will play as the universe ages.

Emerging scientific basis

Theory

Alexander Friedmann

The theoretical scientific exploration of the ultimate fate of the universe became possible with Albert Einstein's 1916 theory of general relativity. General relativity can be employed to describe the universe on the largest possible scale. There are many possible solutions to the equations of general relativity, and each solution implies a possible ultimate fate of the universe. Alexander Friedmann proposed a number of such solutions in 1922 as did Georges Lemaître in 1927.^[4] In some of these, the universe has been expanding from an initial singularity; this is, essentially, the Big Bang.

Observation

In 1931, Edwin Hubble published his conclusion, based on his observations of Cepheid variable stars in distant galaxies, that the universe was expanding. From then on, the beginning of the universe and its possible end have been the subjects of serious scientific investigation.

Big Bang and Steady State theories

In 1927, Georges Lemaître set out a theory that has since come to be called the Big Bang theory of the origin of the universe.^[4] In 1948, Fred Hoyle set out his opposing Steady State theory in which the universe continually expanded but remained statistically unchanged as new matter is constantly created. These two theories were active contenders until the 1965 discovery, by Arno Penzias and Robert Wilson, of the cosmic microwave background radiation, a fact that is a straightforward prediction of the Big Bang theory, and one that the original Steady State theory could not account for. As a result, The Big Bang theory quickly became the most widely held view of the origin of the universe.

Cosmological constant

When Einstein formulated general relativity, he and his contemporaries believed in a static universe. When Einstein found that his equations could easily be solved in such a way as to allow the universe to be expanding now, and to contract in the far future, he added to those equations what he called a cosmological constant, essentially a constant energy density unaffected by any expansion or contraction, whose role was to offset the effect of gravity on the universe as a whole in such a way that the universe would remain static. After Hubble announced his conclusion that the universe was expanding, Einstein wrote that his cosmological constant was "the greatest blunder of my life".^[5]

Density parameter

An important parameter in fate of the universe theory is the Density parameter, Omega (Ω), defined as the average matter density of the universe divided by a critical value of that density. This selects one of three possible geometries depending on whether Ω is equal to, less than, or greater than 1. These are called, respectively, the flat, open and closed universes. These three adjectives refer to the overall geometry of the universe, and not to the local curving of spacetime caused by smaller clumps of mass (for example, galaxies and stars). If the primary content of the universe is inert matter, as in the dust models popular for much of the 20th century, there is a particular fate corresponding to each geometry. Hence cosmologists aimed to determine the fate of the universe by measuring Ω, or equivalently the rate at which the expansion was decelerating.

Repulsive force

Starting in 1998, observations of supernovas in distant galaxies have been interpreted as consistent with a universe whose expansion is accelerating. Subsequent cosmological theorizing has been designed so as to allow for this possible acceleration, nearly always by invoking dark energy, which in its simplest form is just a positive cosmological constant. In general, dark energy is a catch-all term for any hypothesised field with negative pressure, usually with a density that changes as the universe expands.

Role of the shape of the universe

The ultimate fate of an expanding universe depends on the matter density Ω_M and the dark energy density Ω_Λ.

The current scientific consensus of most cosmologists is that the ultimate fate of the universe depends on its overall shape, how much dark energy it contains, and on the equation of state which determines how the dark energy density responds to the expansion of the universe.^[3] Recent observations conclude, from 7.5 billion years after the Big Bang, that the expansion rate of the universe has likely been increasing, commensurate with the Open Universe theory.^[6] However, other recent measurements by Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe suggest that the universe is either flat or very close to flat.^[2]

Closed universe

If Ω > 1, then the geometry of space is closed like the surface of a sphere. The sum of the angles of a triangle exceeds 180 degrees and there are no parallel lines; all lines eventually meet. The geometry of the universe is, at least on a very large scale, elliptic.

In a closed universe, gravity eventually stops the expansion of the universe, after which it starts to contract until all matter in the universe collapses to a point, a final singularity termed the "Big Crunch", the opposite of the Big Bang. Some new modern theories assume the universe may have a significant amount of dark energy, whose repulsive force may be sufficient to cause the expansion of the universe to continue forever — even if Ω > 1.^[7]

Open universe

If Ω < 1, the geometry of space is open, i.e., negatively curved like the surface of a saddle. The angles of a triangle sum to less than 180 degrees, and lines that do not meet are never equidistant; they have a point of least distance and otherwise grow apart. The geometry of such a universe is hyperbolic.

Even without dark energy, a negatively curved universe expands forever, with gravity negligibly slowing the rate of expansion. With dark energy, the expansion not only continues but accelerates. The ultimate fate of an open universe is either universal heat death, the "Big Freeze", or the "Big Rip", where the acceleration caused by dark energy eventually becomes so strong that it completely overwhelms the effects of the gravitational, electromagnetic and strong binding forces.

Conversely, a negative cosmological constant, which would correspond to a negative energy density and positive pressure, would cause even an open universe to re-collapse to a big crunch. This option has been ruled out by observations.

Flat universe

If the average density of the universe exactly equals the critical density so that Ω = 1, then the geometry of the universe is flat: as in Euclidean geometry, the sum of the angles of a triangle is 180 degrees and parallel lines continuously maintain the same distance. Measurements from Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe have confirmed the universe is flat with only a 0.4% margin of error.^[2]

In absence of dark energy, a flat universe expands forever but at a continually decelerating rate, with expansion asymptotically approaching zero. With dark energy, the expansion rate of the universe initially slows down, due to the effect of gravity, but eventually increases. The ultimate fate of the universe is the same as an open universe.

Theories about the end of the universe

The fate of the universe is determined by the density of the universe. The preponderance of evidence to date, based on measurements of the rate of expansion and the mass density, favors a universe that will continue to expand indefinitely, resulting in the "big freeze" scenario below.^[8] However, observations are not conclusive, and alternative models are still possible.^[9]

Big Freeze or heat death

The Big Freeze is a scenario under which continued expansion results in a universe that asymptotically approaches absolute zero temperature.^[10] This scenario in combination with the Big Rip scenario is currently gaining ground as the most important hypothesis.^[11] It could, in the absence of dark energy, occur only under a flat or hyperbolic geometry. With a positive cosmological constant, it could also occur in a closed universe. In this scenario, stars are expected to form normally for 10¹² to 10¹⁴ (1-100 trillion) years, but eventually the supply of gas needed for star formation will be exhausted. As existing stars run out of fuel and cease to shine, the universe will slowly and inexorably grow darker. Eventually black holes will dominate the universe, which themselves will disappear over time as they emit Hawking radiation.^[12] A related scenario is heat death, which states that the universe goes to a state of maximum entropy in which everything is evenly distributed, and there are no gradients — which are needed to sustain information processing, one form of which is life. The heat death scenario is compatible with any of the three spatial models, but requires that the universe reach an eventual temperature minimum.^[13] Random quantum fluctuations or quantum tunneling can produce another Big Bang in years.^[14] Over an infinite time there would be a spontaneous entropy decrease by Poincaré recurrence theorem, thermal fluctuations^[15][16] and Fluctuation theorem.^[17][18]

Big Rip

In the special case of phantom dark energy, which has even more negative pressure than a simple cosmological constant, the density of dark energy increases with time, causing the rate of acceleration to increase, leading to a steady increase in the Hubble constant. As a result, all material objects in the universe, starting with galaxies and eventually (in a finite time) all forms, no matter how small, will disintegrate into unbound elementary particles and radiation, ripped apart by the phantom energy force and shooting apart from each other. The end state of the universe is a singularity, as the dark energy density and expansion rate becomes infinite.

Big Crunch

The Big Crunch. The vertical axis can be considered as either plus or minus time.

The Big Crunch hypothesis is a symmetric view of the ultimate fate of the universe. Just as the Big Bang started a cosmological expansion, this theory assumes that the average density of the universe is enough to stop its expansion and begin contracting. The end result is unknown; a simple estimation would have all the matter and space-time in the universe collapse into a dimensionless singularity, but at these scales unknown quantum effects need to be considered (see Quantum gravity). Recent evidence suggests that this scenario is not likely but it has not been ruled out as measurements are only available over a short period of time and could reverse in the future.^[11]

This scenario allows the Big Bang to be immediately after the Big Crunch of a preceding universe. If this occurs repeatedly, it creates a cyclic model, which is also known as an oscillatory universe. The universe could then consist of an infinite sequence of finite universes, each finite universe ending with a Big Crunch that is also the Big Bang of the next universe. Theoretically, the cyclic universe could not be reconciled with the second law of thermodynamics: entropy would build up from oscillation to oscillation and cause heat death. Current evidence also indicates the universe is not closed. This has caused cosmologists to abandon the oscillating universe model. A somewhat similar idea is embraced by the cyclic model, but this idea evades heat death, because of an expansion of the branes that dilutes entropy accumulated in the previous cycle.

Big Bounce

The Big Bounce is a theorized scientific model related to the beginning of the known universe. It derives from the oscillatory universe or cyclic repetition interpretation of the Big Bang where the first cosmological event was the result of the collapse of a previous universe.

According to one version of the Big Bang theory of cosmology, in the beginning, the universe had infinite density. Such a description seems to be at odds with everything else in physics, and especially quantum mechanics and its uncertainty principle. It is not surprising, therefore, that quantum mechanics has given rise to an alternative version of the Big Bang theory. Also, if the universe is closed, this theory would predict that once this universe collapses it will spawn another universe in an event similar to the Big Bang after a universal singularity is reached or a repulsive quantum force causes re-expansion.

In simple terms, this theory states that the universe will continuously repeat the cycle of a Big Bang, followed up with a Big Crunch.

Multiverse: no complete end

One multiverse hypothesis states that our observable universe is merely one among an infinite number of expanding regions of "normal" space within a larger volume of inflationary space.^[19]

During the early universe, a period of cosmic inflation occurred, where space expanded very rapidly (in a false vacuum state dominated by an "inflationary field"). The conventional model of cosmic inflation assumes that the entire universe changes state from inflationary to non-inflationary state at the same time. The eternal inflation model, by contrast, assumes that different parts of the universe undergo vacuum decay from inflationary to non-inflationary states at different times. The end result is to produce many regions of normal space surrounded by still-expanding regions of inflationary space where the vacuum has not yet decayed.

These regions of normal space cannot contact each other, and so can each be considered separate universes. While any given universe eventually reaches heat death, there are always other regions that haven't, and new universes being produced within the inflationary volume, so the multiverse as a whole never ends.

False vacuum

If the vacuum is not in its lowest energy state (a false vacuum), it could tunnel into a lower energy state.^[20] This is called the vacuum metastability event. This has the potential to fundamentally alter our universe; in more audacious scenarios even the various physical constants could have different values, severely affecting the foundations of matter, energy, and spacetime. It is also possible that all structures will be destroyed instantaneously, without any forewarning.^[21] Studies of a particle similar to the Higgs boson support the theory of a false vacuum collapse billions of years from now.^[22]

According to the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, the universe will not end this way. Instead, each time a quantum event happens that causes the universe to decay from a false vacuum to a true vacuum state, the universe splits into several new worlds. In some of the new worlds the universe decays; in some others the universe continues as before.

Cosmic uncertainty

Each possibility described so far is based on a very simple form for the dark energy equation of state. But as the name is meant to imply, very little is actually currently known about the actual physics of the dark energy. If the theory of inflation is true, the universe went through an episode dominated by a different form of dark energy in the first moments of the Big Bang; but inflation ended, indicating an equation of state far more complex than those assumed so far for present-day dark energy. It is possible that the dark energy equation of state could change again resulting in an event that would have consequences which are extremely difficult to predict or parametrize. As the nature of dark energy and dark matter remain enigmatic, even hypothetical, the possibilities surrounding their coming role in the universe are currently unknown.

Observational constraints on theories

Choosing among these rival scenarios is done by 'weighing' the universe, for example, measuring the relative contributions of matter, radiation, dark matter and dark energy to the critical density. More concretely, competing scenarios are evaluated against data on galaxy clustering and distant supernovae, and on the anisotropies in the Cosmic Microwave Background.

See also

References

Further reading

• Adams, Fred; Gregory Laughlin (2000). The Five Ages of the Universe: Inside the Physics of Eternity. Simon & Schuster Australia. ISBN 0-684-86576-9. 
• Chaisson, Eric (2001). Cosmic Evolution: The Rise of Complexity in Nature. Harvard University Press. ISBN 0-674-00342-X. 
• Dyson, Freeman (2004). Infinite in All Directions (the 1985 Gifford Lectures). Harper Perennial. ISBN 0-06-039081-6. 
• Harrison, Edward (2003). Masks of the Universe: Changing Ideas on the Nature of the Cosmos. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-77351-2. 
• Penrose, Roger (2004). The Road to Reality. Alfred A. Knopf. ISBN 0-679-45443-8. 
• Prigogine, Ilya (2003). Is Future Given?. World Scientific Publishing. ISBN 981-238-508-8. 
• Smolin, Lee (2001). Three Roads to Quantum Gravity: A New Understanding of Space, Time and the Universe. Phoenix. ISBN 0-7538-1261-4. 

External links

• Baez, J., 2004, "The End of the Universe".
• Caldwell, R. R.; Kamionski, M.; Weinberg, N. N. (2003). "Phantom Energy and Cosmic Doomsday". Physical Review Letters 91 (7): 071301. arXiv:astro-ph/0302506. Bibcode:2003PhRvL..91g1301C. doi:10.1103/physrevlett.91.071301. PMID 12935004. 
• Hjalmarsdotter, Linnea, 2005, "Cosmological parameters."
• George Musser (2010). "Could Time End?". Scientific American 303 (3): 84–91. doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0910-84. PMID 20812485. 
• Vaas, R., 2006, "Dark Energy and Life's Ultimate Future," in Burdyuzha, V. (ed.) The Future of Life and the Future of our Civilization. Springer: 231–247.
• A Brief History of the End of Everything, a BBC Radio 4 series.
• Cosmology at Caltech.