Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016

Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016
United States
February 1 – June 14, 2016
4,763 delegates to the Democratic National Convention
2,382 delegates votes needed to win
 
Candidate Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton
Home state Vermont New York
Delegate count 36 32
States carried 1 1
Popular vote 151,584[1] 95,252[2]
Percentage 60.40% 37.95%

First place finisher (popular vote and/or pledged delegates)

  Hillary Clinton (1)
  Bernie Sanders (1)

Previous Democratic nominee before election

Barack Obama

 Democratic nominee

TBD

The 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries and caucuses will take place in the 50 states, the District of Columbia and U.S. territories, as well as among U.S. citizens living all over the world,[3] prior to the 2016 general election to determine the Democratic Party's nominee for the Presidency of the United States.[4] These primaries and caucuses are staggered between February 1 and June 14. Incumbent president and 2012 nominee, Barack Obama, is ineligible for re-election due to term limits under the Twenty-second Amendment.

Background

In the weeks following the re-election of incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama in the 2012 election, media speculation regarding potential candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination in the 2016 presidential election began to circulate. The speculation centered on the prospects of Hillary Clinton, then Secretary of State, making a second presidential bid in the 2016 election. Clinton had previously served as a U.S. Senator (2001–09) and was the First Lady of the U.S. (1993–2001).[5][6] A January 2013 Washington Post–ABC News poll indicated that she had high popularity among the American public.[7][8] This polling data prompted numerous political pundits and observers to anticipate that Clinton would mount a second presidential bid in 2016, entering the race as the early front-runner for the Democratic nomination.[9]

Within the party's liberal left wing came calls for a more progressive candidate to challenge what was perceived by many within this segment as the party's establishment.[10] U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren quickly became a highly touted figure within this movement as well as the object of an ongoing draft movement to run in the primaries,[11] despite her repeated denials of interest in doing so.[10][12] The MoveOn.org campaign 'Run Warren Run', announced that it would disband on June 8, 2015, and instead focus its efforts toward progressive issues.[13] The draft campaign's New Hampshire staffer Kurt Ehrenberg has joined Bernie Sanders' team and most of the remaining staffers are expected to do the same.[14]

Given the historical tendency for sitting Vice Presidents to seek the presidency in election cycles in which the incumbent President is not a candidate, there was also considerable speculation regarding a potential presidential run by incumbent Vice President Joe Biden,[15][16] who had previously campaigned for the Democratic presidential nomination in the election cycles of 1988 and 2008.[17] This speculation was further fueled by Biden's own expressions of interest in a possible run in 2016.[17][18] However, on October 21, 2015, speaking from a podium in the Rose Garden with his wife and President Obama by his side, Biden announced his decision not to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination in the 2016 election.[19][20][21]

Independent U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders is running as a presidential candidate for the Democratic nomination.[22] He officially announced his run for candidacy on April 30, 2015.[23] Bernie Sanders is seen as the biggest rival to Hillary Clinton, backed up by a strong grassroots campaign.[24]

In November 2014, Jim Webb, a former U.S. Senator who had once served as the U.S. Secretary of the Navy during the Reagan administration, announced the formation of an exploratory committee in preparation for a possible run for the Democratic presidential nomination.[25] This made Webb the first major potential candidate to take a formal action toward seeking the party's 2016 nomination.[25]

Martin O'Malley, former Governor of Maryland as well as a former Mayor of Baltimore, made formal steps toward a campaign for the party's nomination in January 2015 with the hiring and retaining of personnel who had served the previous year as political operatives in Iowa – the first presidential nominating state in the primary elections cycle – as staff for his political action committee (PAC). O'Malley had started the "O’ Say Can You See" PAC in 2012 which had, prior to 2015, functioned primarily as fundraising vehicles for various Democratic candidates, as well as for two 2014 ballot measures in Maryland.[26] With the 2015 staffing moves, the PAC ostensibly became a vehicle for O'Malley – who had for several months openly contemplated a presidential bid – to lay the groundwork for a potential campaign for the party's presidential nomination.[27]

In August 2015, Lawrence Lessig unexpectedly announced his intention to enter the race, promising to run if his exploratory committee raised $1 million by Labor Day.[28][29] After accomplishing this, Lessig formally announced his campaign.[30] Lessig has described his candidacy as a referendum on campaign finance reform and electoral reform legislation. His campaign is unique for clearly prioritizing a single issue: restoring democracy via The Citizen Equality Act, a proposal that couples campaign finance reform with other laws aimed at curbing gerrymandering and ensuring voting access.[31][32]

Candidates

Individuals included in this section have taken one or more of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy; filed as a candidate with Federal Election Commission (FEC) (for other than exploratory purposes). They are listed alphabetically by surname.

Candidates featured in major polls

The following candidates have been listed in five or more major independent nationwide polls, participated in all televised debates and forums, are on the ballot in all states that have finalized them, and have been endorsed by superdelegates.

(Candidates are listed by total delegates, the sum of pledged delegates and superdelegates as sourced in the sections below.)

Name Most recent position State Candidacy Popular
vote[lower-alpha 1]		 Pledged
delegates[lower-alpha 2] 		Super
delegates[lower-alpha 3]		Total delegates [lower-alpha 4] States carried [lower-alpha 5]

Bernie Sanders		   Senator from Vermont  
(2007–present)
Vermont
(Campaign • Positions)		151,57836 (1%)14 (2%) 50 (1%) NH

Hillary Clinton		 67th
Secretary of State
(2009–2013)
New York
(Campaign • Positions)		95,24932 (1%) 420 (59%) 452 (10%) IA

Other featuring candidates

The following notable individuals have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy or filed as a candidate with Federal Election Commission. As of January 2016, none have been featured in a national poll.

The following candidate is on enough ballots to theoretically win the nomination in the primaries:

The following candidates are on the ballot in three states or more:

The following candidates were only on the ballot in one state:

As of March 2016, these candidates have not qualified for ballot access in any state primary or caucus:

In addition, the following candidates are on the ballot in multiple states: James Valentine of Miami Beach, Florida is on the ballot in both Arkansas[39] and New Hampshire,[35] attorney Michael A. Steinberg of Florida is on the ballot in Arizona, Oklahoma, Texas, Georgia[50] and New Hampshire, and Steve Burke of New York is on the ballot in New Hampshire and Louisiana,[51] qualifying each for ballot status in Arizona.

Other candidates with confirmed ballot status only in the New Hampshire primary include Eric Elbot of Massachusetts, Mark Stewart Greenstein of Connecticut,[52] Brock C. Hutton of Maryland, Lloyd Kelso of North Carolina, William D. French of Pennsylvania, William H. McGaughey, Jr. of Minnesota, Robert Lovitt of Kentucky, David John Thistle of Star Locke, Texas, Raymond Michael Moroz of New York, Richard Lyons Weil of Colorado, Jon Adams of New York, Steven Roy Lipscomb of New Mexico, Edward Sonnino of New York, Edward T. O’Donnell, Jr. of Pennsylvania, and Graham Schwass of Massachusetts. Kennedy K. Brown of Alabama is on the ballot in that state's primary.

Withdrew during the primaries

Withdrew before the primaries

Timeline

Active campaigns
Ended campaigns
Iowa Caucuses
Super Tuesday
Convention 2016
Election Day
Inauguration Day
Jim Webb presidential campaign, 2016 Lincoln Chafee presidential campaign, 2016 Lawrence Lessig presidential campaign, 2016 Martin O'Malley presidential campaign, 2016 Bernie Sanders presidential campaign, 2016 Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, 2016

Process

The Democratic Party presidential primaries and caucuses are indirect elections in which voters elect delegates to the 2016 Democratic National Convention; these delegates in turn directly elect the Democratic Party's presidential nominee. In some states, the party may disregard voters' selection of delegates or selected delegates may vote for any candidate at the state or national convention (non-binding primary or caucus). In other states, state laws and party rules require the party to select delegates according to votes, and delegates must vote for a particular candidate (binding primary or caucus).

There are 3,636 pledged (or "hard") delegates in the 2016 cycle. Under the party's delegate selection rules, the number of pledged delegates allocated to each of the 50 U.S. states and Washington, D.C. is determined using a formula based on two main factors:

  1. The proportion of votes each state gave to the Democratic candidate in the last three presidential elections (2004, 2008, and 2012)
  2. The number of electoral votes each state has in the United States Electoral College.

For the U.S. territories of Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and for Democrats Abroad, fixed numbers of pledged delegates are allocated. Each state and U.S territory will also be awarded bonus pledged delegates based on whether they schedule their primary or caucus later in the primary season. All states and territories then must use a proportional representation system, where their pledged delegates are awarded proportionally to the election results.[53]

The current 704 unpledged superdelegates (or "soft" delegates) will include members of the United States House of Representatives and Senate, state and territorial governors, members of the Democratic National Committee, and other party leaders. Because of possible deaths, resignations, or the results of intervening or special elections, the final number of these superdelegates may be reduced before the convention.[53]

The Democratic National Committee has also imposed rules for states wishing to hold early contests in 2016. No state will be permitted to hold a primary or caucus in January, and only Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada are entitled to February contests. Any state that violates these rules will be penalized half of its pledged delegates and all of its unpledged delegates to the 2016 convention.[53]

Superdelegate endorsements

The table below shows the current endorsement positions of superdelegates. These numbers however are provisional since superdelegates can switch their endorsements anytime until the 2016 Democratic National Convention.

Candidate Distinguished party leaders Governors Senators Representatives DNC members Totals
Hillary Clinton 8 13 39 158 202 420
Bernie Sanders 1 0 1 2 10 14
Uncommitted 11 7 7 32 219 276
Totals 20 20 47 193 432 712

Note: candidate counts do not sum to totals because two delegates' last verifiable indication of support was for Martin O'Malley's candidacy - he has since suspended his campaign.

Schedule and results of primaries and caucuses

As of January 2016, the tentative schedule for the 2016 presidential primaries is as follows:

Schedule of primary elections, by month and/or date
Date[291][292][293] State/territory Delegates Available[294] Type[lower-alpha 6] Delegates Gained Popular vote (or equivalent)[295]
Clinton Sanders Clinton Sanders
P[lower-alpha 7] U[lower-alpha 8] T[lower-alpha 9] P[295] U[lower-alpha 10] T P[295] U[lower-alpha 11] T
February 1, 2016 Iowa 44 8 52 Semi-open caucus 23 7 3021 0 21 701[lower-alpha 12] (50%) 697[lower-alpha 13] (50%)
February 9, 2016 New Hampshire 24 8 32 Semi-closed primary 9 6 15 15 0 15 95,249 (38%) 151,578 (60%)
February 20, 2016 Nevada 35 8 43 Closed caucus 0 3 3 0 1 1
February 27, 2016 South Carolina 53 6 59 Open primary0 33 0 0 0
March 1, 2016Alabama53760Open primary055000
March 1, 2016American Samoa6410Closed caucus000000
March 1, 2016Arkansas32537Open primary055000
March 1, 2016Colorado661379Closed caucus099000
March 1, 2016Georgia10215117Open primary01111000
March 1, 2016Massachusetts9125116Semi-closed primary01616011
March 1, 2016Minnesota771693Open caucus01010011
March 1, 2016Oklahoma38442Semi-closed primary000000
March 1, 2016Tennessee67976Open primary066000
March 1, 2016Texas22230252Open primary01616000
March 1, 2016Vermont161026Open primary044022
March 1, 2016Virginia9514109Open primary01313000
March 5, 2016Kansas33437Closed caucus000000
March 5, 2016Louisiana51859Closed primary022000
March 5, 2016Nebraska25530Closed caucus033000
March 5, 2016Maine25530Closed caucus033011
March 1-8, 2016Democrats Abroad13417Closed primary011000
March 8, 2016Michigan13017147Open primary01010000
March 8, 2016Mississippi36541Open primary033011
March 12, 2016Marianas6511TBD011000
March 15, 2016Florida21432246Closed primary02222000
March 15, 2016Illinois15626182Open primary02020000
March 15, 2016Missouri711384Open primary01010000
March 15, 2016North Carolina10714121Semi-closed primary066011
March 15, 2016Ohio14316159Semi-open primary088000
March 22, 2016Arizona751085Closed primary055011
March 22, 2016Idaho23427Open caucus011000
March 22, 2016Utah33437Semi-open caucus022000
March 26, 2016Alaska16420Closed caucus000000
March 26, 2016Hawaii25934Closed caucus044000
March 26, 2016[296]Washington10117118Open caucus01010000
April 5, 2016Wisconsin861096Open primary044000
April 9, 2016Wyoming14418Closed caucus044000
April 19, 2016New York24744291Closed primary03939000
April 26, 2016Connecticut551570Closed primary01313000
April 26, 2016Delaware211031Closed primary055000
April 26, 2016Maryland9523118Closed primary01414000
April 26, 2016Pennsylvania18921210Closed primary01717000
April 26, 2016Rhode Island24933Semi-closed primary066000
May 3, 2016Indiana83992Open primary066000
May 7, 2016Guam7512Closed caucus022000
May 10, 2016West Virginia29837Semi-closed primary011011
May 17, 2016Kentucky55560Closed primary011000
May 17, 2016Oregon611374Closed primary055000
June 4, 2016Virgin Islands7512Closed caucus011000
June 5, 2016Puerto Rico60767Open primary044000
June 7, 2016California47571546Semi-closed primary04343000
June 7, 2016Montana21627Open primary000000
June 7, 2016New Jersey12616142Semi-closed primary099022
June 7, 2016New Mexico34943Closed primary044000
June 7, 2016North Dakota18523Open primary011011
June 7, 2016South Dakota20525Semi-open primary000000
June 14, 2016District of Columbia202545Closed primary01616011
-TOTAL4,0517094760-3242045236145095,249 (38%)151,578 (60%)
     Hillary Clinton      Bernie Sanders

Notes

  1. ↑ see "Schedule and results of primaries and caucuses" below for detail
  2. ↑ 4,051 available; see "Schedule and results of primaries and caucuses" below for detail
  3. ↑ 702 available; see "Superdelegate endorsements" below for detail
  4. ↑ 4,763 available; 2,382 needed to secure nomination
  5. ↑ (according to popular vote or equivalent); see below for detail
  6. ↑ Differences between types:
    • Open: Individuals can vote regardless of their registered party affiliation.
    • Closed: One must be registered as a Democrat to vote in this election.
    • Semi-open: As long as one is not registered as a Republican, one can vote in this election.
    • Semi-closed: One must be registered as either a Democrat or undeclared to vote in this election.
  7. ↑ Pledged Delegates, these are allocated based on votes
  8. ↑ Unpledged delegates, also known as "Superdelegates," these officials can vote for any candidate they wish
  9. ↑ Total Delegates
  10. ↑ see above
  11. ↑ see above
  12. ↑ State Delegate Equivalents
  13. ↑ State Delegate Equivalents

References

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