Asturian parliamentary election, 2015

24 May 2015

All 45 seats in the Asturian General Junta 23 seats needed for a majority

Opinion polls
Registered	988,057 0.2%
Turnout	551,192 (55.8%) 4.7 pp
	First party	Second party	Third party

Leader	Javier Fernández	Mercedes Fernández	Emilio León
Party	PSOE	PP	Podemos
Leader since	23 October 2010	14 February 2012	1 April 2015
Last election	17 seats, 32.1%	10 seats, 21.5%	Did not contest
Seats won	14	11	9
Seat change	3	1	9
Popular vote	143,851	117,319	103,571
Percentage	26.5%	21.6%	19.1%
Swing	5.6 pp	0.8 pp	New party

	Fourth party	Fifth party	Sixth party

Leader	Gaspar Llamazares	Cristina Coto	Nicanor García
Party	IU-IX	FAC	C's
Leader since	24 January 2015	21 February 2015	18 April 2015
Last election	5 seats, 13.8%	12 seats, 24.8%	Did not contest
Seats won	5	3	3
Seat change	0	9	3
Popular vote	64,868	44,480	38,687
Percentage	11.9%	8.2%	7.1%
Swing	1.9 pp	16.6 pp	New party

President before election

Javier Fernández
PSOE

Elected President

Javier Fernández
PSOE

The 2015 Asturian parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 10th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias, the unicameral regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Asturias. At stake were all 45 seats in the General Junta, determining the President of the Principality of Asturias.

The election was held concurrently with the regional elections for 12 other autonomous communities, as well as the 2015 municipal elections.

Electoral system

The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias are elected in 3 multi-member districts using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Unlike other regions, districts do not coincide with provincial limits, being determined by law as such:

Central District, comprising the municipalities of: Aller, Avilés, Bimenes, Carreño, Caso, Castrillón, Corvera de Asturias, Gijón, Gozón, Illas, Las Regueras, Langreo, Laviana, Lena, Llanera, Mieres, Morcín, Noreña, Oviedo, Proaza, Quirós, Ribera de Arriba, Riosa, San Martín del Rey Aurelio, Santo Adriano, Sariego, Siero, Sobrescobio and Soto del Barco.
Eastern District, comprising the municipalities of: Amieva, Cabrales, Cabranes, Cangas de Onís, Caravia, Colunga, Llanes, Nava, Onís, Parres, Peñamellera Alta, Peñamellera Baja, Piloña, Ponga, Ribadedeva, Ribadesella and Villaviciosa.
Western District, comprising the municipalities of: Allande, Belmonte de Miranda, Boal, Candamo, Cangas del Narcea, Castropol, Coaña, Cudillero, Degaña, El Franco, Grado, Grandas de Salime, Ibias, Illano, Muros del Nalón, Navia, Pesoz, Pravia, Salas, San Martín de Oscos, Santa Eulalia de Oscos, San Tirso de Abres, Somiedo, Tapia de Casariego, Taramundi, Teverga, Tineo, Valdés, Vegadeo, Villanueva de Oscos, Villayón and Yernes y Tameza.

Each district is entitled to an initial minimum of 2 seats, with the remaining 39 seats allocated among the three districts in proportion to their populations. For the 2015 election, seats are distributed as follows: Central District (34), Eastern District (5) and Western District (6).

Voting is on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 3% of the total vote in each district (which include blank ballots—for none of the above) are entitled to enter the seat distribution.^[1]

Background

Following the 2012 election, regional PSOE leader Javier Fernández was able to be elected as President of Asturias thanks to a confidence and supply agreement with both IU-IX and UPyD. However, in November 2013 both parties announced they were withdrawing support from the government after the PSOE voted down a proposal to reform the autonomous community's electoral law (including, among other things, a removal of the three district-division of the Principality), leaving the regional government in minority.^[2]^[3] In order to prevent a parliamentary deadlock, however, the PSOE unexpectedly reached an agreement with the PP in order to obtain its parliamentary support to avoid political unstability,^[4]^[5]^[6] in what was dubbed by opponents as the duerno agreement.^[7]

Incumbent Socialist Javier Fernández announced his intention to run for re-election to a second term in office, being chosen as his party's candidate without opposition.^[8] Opposition leader Francisco Álvarez-Cascos announced on 12 February 2015 that he would not stand again as Asturias Forum's candidate,^[9] with Cristina Coto being elected as the party's candidate and leader the following month.^[10]^[11] Mercedes Fernández was elected as People's Party candidate for a second consecutive time,^[12] while Gaspar Llamazares was proclaimed as the candidate for United Left after a primary election held on 24 January 2015.^[13]

Finally, Ignacio Prendes, the only deputy of Union, Progress and Democracy, was expelled from the party and will contest as the candidate of Citizens (C's).^[14] Adán Fernández will substitute him as the candidate of the party.^[15]

The election will be influenced by the surge of two rising parties in opinion polls: Podemos (Spanish for We can), a left-wing party created in January 2014 to contest the 2014 European Parliament election and whose success brough it to establish itself as a fully-fledged party at the national level, and centrist Citizens (C's), whose rise in opinion polls early in 2015 and its success in the 2015 Andalusian election has brought it at the center of media attention. Emilio León will stand as Podemos' candidate after being elected in a primary election process held during the last weeks of March,^[16] Citizens will also run in the election,^[17] despite an early controversy resulted in the resignation of the former party's candidate Francisco Gambarte and the party staff considering whether to stand or not in the region.^[18] Nicanor García will be the candidate, while Ignacio Prendes, expelled from UPyD, will be the second person in the list.^[19]

On April 21, it was confirmed that 19 parties will take part in the election.^[20]

Opinion polls

Vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PSOE	FAC	PP	IU	UPyD	C's	P	Oth.	Lead
Date	Polling Firm/Source								Oth.	Lead
24 May 2015	Regional Election	26.5	8.2	21.6	11.9	0.8	7.1	19.1	4.8	4.9
Exit polls
17 May	Ipsos-Eco	30.4	10.3	17.9	11.5		12.6	13.3	4.0	12.5
17 May	NC-Report	24.1	11.7	23.3	8.7	2.3	13.2	14.0	2.4	0.8
23–30 Apr	Intercampo^{[lower-alpha 1]}	28.0	8.0	19.5	9.0		15.0	19.5	1.0	8.5
23 Mar–19 Apr	CIS	25.5	10.0	19.9	6.7	2.2	10.6	21.4	3.7	4.1
16 Mar–1 Apr	NC-Report	23.4	13.6	23.1	7.2	2.7	13.1	14.5	2.4	0.3
2015
24–28 Nov	EDA	27.3	22.1	19.3	8.3	3.6		14.0	5.4	5.2
1–10 Oct	EDA	25.4	21.5	18.0	5.8	3.1		20.6	5.6	3.9
23 Jul	TPA	24.1	14.6	23.8	8.3	3.6		18.7	6.9	0.3
25 May 2014	EP Election	26.1	4.2	24.2	12.9	6.0	2.5	13.6	10.4	1.9
2014
28 Nov–1 Dec	SyM	27.8	16.4	15.2	13.2	14.5			12.9	11.4
15 Apr–10 May	NC-Report^{[lower-alpha 2]}	31.3	26.5	18.5					23.7	4.8
2013
25 Mar 2012	Regional Election	32.1	24.8	21.5	13.8	3.7			4.1	7.3

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.

23 seats needed for majority
Date	Polling Firm/Source	PSOE	FAC	PP	IU	UPyD	C's	P	Others
Date	Polling Firm/Source								Others
24 May 2015	Regional Election	14	3	11	5	0	3	9	0
24 May	GAD3	14−16	5−7	9−11	2−3	0	3−4	7−9	0
Exit polls
17 May	GAD3	15−17	4−5	10−11	3	0	4−5	6−7	0
17 May	Ipsos-Eco	14−15	5−6	8−9	4−5	0	6−7	5−6	0
17 May	NC-Report	12−13	5−6	11−12	2−3	0	6−7	6−7	0
23–30 Apr	Intercampo	11−14	2−3	9−11	3−4	0	7−8	9−11	0
23 Mar–19 Apr	CIS	13	5	11	2	0	4	10	0
16 Mar–1 Apr	NC-Report	11−12	6−7	11−12	2−3	0	6−7	6−7	0
28 Mar	PSOE	15−18	3	9−10	3	0−1	0	10−12	0
2015
31 Oct	Llorente & Cuenca	12−14	6−9	12−14	4	2	0	5−7	0
22 Jul–22 Aug	Asturbarómetro	16	4	14	4	1	0	6	0
25 May 2014	EP Election	(16)	(1)	(14)	(5)	(2)	(0)	(7)	(0)
2014
28 Nov–1 Dec	PP	14	14	7	9	1	0	Did not exist	0
28 Nov–1 Dec	SyM	15−16	8	8−9	6−7	6−7	0		0
18 Nov	NC-Report	15−16	14−15	7−8	6−7	1	0		0
11 May	PP	15−17	15−17	6−8	5−6	0−2	0		0
15 Apr–10 May	NC-Report	16−17	13−14	9−10	6−7	1	0		0
2013
25 Mar 2012	Regional Election	17	12	10	5	1			0

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Asturian General Junta election results
Party		Vote			Seats

Party		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	143,851	26.48	5.62	14	3
	People's Party (PP)	117,319	21.59	0.06	11	1
	We Can (Podemos)	103,571	19.06	New	9	9
	United Left of Asturias (IU-IX)	64,868	11.94	1.83	5	±0
	Asturias Forum (FAC)	44,480	8.19	16.61	3	9
	Citizens-Party of the Citizenry (C's)	38,687	7.12	New	3	3
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	4,358	0.80	2.94	0	1
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	3,975	0.73	0.44	0	±0
	Blank Seats (Eb)	3,442	0.63	0.19	0	±0
	Vox (VOX)	3,226	0.59	New	0	±0
	Equo (EQUO)	1,986	0.37	0.14	0	±0
	Andecha Astur (AA)	990	0.18	0.05	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	888	0.16	±0.00	0	±0

Parties with less than 0.1% of the vote		1,433	0.26	–	±0
	Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero)	417	0.08	0.06	±0
	Citizen Democratic Renewal Movement (RED)	364	0.07	New	±0
	Republican Social Movement (MSR)	301	0.06	0.02	±0
	Asturian Renewal Union (URAS)	249	0.05	0.04	±0
	Spanish Falange of the JONS (FE-JONS)	59	0.01	New	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	43	0.01	±0.00	±0

	Blank ballots	10,271	1.89	0.46

Total		543,345	100.00		45	±0

Valid votes		543,345	98.58	0.57
Invalid votes		7,847	1.42	0.57
Votes cast / turnout		551,192	55.79	4.64
Abstentions		436,865	44.21	4.64
Registered voters		988,057

Source: Argos Information Portal

Vote share

PSOE			26.48%
PP			21.59%
Podemos			19.06%
IU-IX			11.94%
FAC			8.19%
C's			7.12%
Others			3.74%
Blank			1.89%

Parliamentary seats

PSOE			31.11%
PP			24.44%
Podemos			20.00%
IU-IX			11.11%
FAC			6.67%
C's			6.67%

Notes

↑ This poll provides data ranges and/or approximations. In order to simplify, the average of these data is given.
↑ Poll results are shown projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other polls, a rule of three has been applied to the poll projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.

References

↑ "Law 14/1986, of 26 December, on the regulation of elections to the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias".
↑ "UPyD breaks with the PSOE in Asturias and leaves the regional government in minority" (in Spanish). El País. 2013-11-01.
↑ "UPyD and IU announce the rupture of the legislature pact with the PSOE in Asturias" (in Spanish). ABC. 2013-11-01.
↑ "PSOE switches allies and relies on the PP to keep governing Asturias" (in Spanish). El Confidencial. 2014-03-19.
↑ "PSOE and PP agree the budget in Asturias" (in Spanish). InfoLibre. 2014-11-17.
↑ "PSOE and PP close the legislature with an unforeseen budgetary agrement in Asturias" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2014-12-28.
↑ "García-Pumarino denounces that the 'duerno agreement' "is more alive than ever"" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2014-10-05.
↑ "Javier Fernández (PSOE) stand for re-election in Asturias: "I have strength, ambition and am not afraid"" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2014-09-20.
↑ "Cascos renounces to head his party's candidacy in the regional election" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2015-02-12.
↑ "Cristina Coto will opt to relieve Álvarez-Cascos at the head of FAC" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2015-02-16.
↑ "Cristina Coto will be Forum's President without the support from the Gijon and Siero sectors" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-02-22.
↑ "Mercedes Fernández, PP candidate to the Principality's Presidency" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-03-06.
↑ "Gaspar Llamazares elected as IU candidate to the presidency of the Principality" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-01-25.
↑ "Prendes will be the Citizens candidate after resigning to its seat for UPyD" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-04-10.
↑ "Adán Fernández, new candidate of UPyD in the Principality" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-04-18.
↑ "Emilio León, Podemos' candidate to the presidency of Asturias" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-04-01.
↑ "Uncertainty marks electoral candidacies in Asturias" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2015-04-04.
↑ "Citizens will repeat primaries in Asturias after its candidate's renounce" (in Spanish). El Confidencial Autonómico. 2015-03-13.
↑ "Nicanor García será el candidato autonómico de Ciudadanos con Prendes como número dos" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2015-04-18.
↑ "Los partidos que darán la batalla electoral" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-04-21.

External links

2015 election results (Spanish)
NC Report/La Razón survey (13/05/2013)

Elections in the Principality of Asturias

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