London mayoral election, 2016

London Mayoral Election, 2016
United Kingdom
5 May 2016

For details of all candidates see the article

 
Candidate Zac Goldsmith Sadiq Khan
Party Conservative Labour

Incumbent Mayor

Boris Johnson
Conservative

The 2016 London mayoral election will be held on 5 May 2016 to elect the Mayor of London, on the same day as the London Assembly election. It will be the fifth election to the position of Mayor, which was created in 2000 after a referendum in London. The election will use a supplementary vote system.

Incumbent Mayor Boris Johnson has chosen not to run for re-election for a third term in office, having been elected as the Conservative Party Member of Parliament for Uxbridge and South Ruislip at the 2015 General Election.[1]

The main contenders are expected to be the Conservative candidate, Zac Goldsmith, the MP for Richmond Park,[2] and the Labour Party candidate Sadiq Khan, the MP for Tooting,[3] both of whom were selected in September 2015, though candidates from several other parties have also announced their intentions to stand.[4]

This will be the first mayoral election, since the role's creation in 2000, in which the incumbent mayor is not standing for re-election.

Background

The outgoing Mayor of London, Boris Johnson

The position of Mayor of London was created in 2000 after a referendum in London.[5] The Mayor has a range of responsibilities covering policing, transport, housing, planning, economic development, arts, culture and the environment, controlling a budget of around £17 billion.[6] Mayors are elected for a period of four years, with no term limits.[7]

There have been two Mayors since the position's creation. The outgoing mayor, Boris Johnson of the Conservative Party was elected as Mayor in 2008, defeating incumbent Labour Party mayor Ken Livingstone. Johnson was re-elected, again ahead of Livingstone, in the 2012 election.[8] Neither Livingstone nor Johnson will be standing in 2016, making it the first London mayoral election which Livingstone will not be contesting.[9]

Since the previous mayoral vote, Labour took the majority of London votes and seats at the 2015 General Election, despite the Conservative Party winning the vote nationally.[9] Other parties and independent candidates are also likely to contest the election;[9] of these the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) (8.1%), the Liberal Democrats (7.7%, 1 seat) and the Green Party (4.7%) were the most popular parties in London at the 2015 election.[10]

Electoral system

The election uses a supplementary vote system, in which voters are invited to express a first and a second preference.[11] If no candidate receives an overall majority (over 50%) of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round. Voters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated have their second preference votes allocated, though only if their second preference candidate remains in contention. This means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.[12]

All registered electors (British, Irish, Commonwealth and European Union citizens) living in London who will be aged 18 or over on Thursday 5 May 2016 will be entitled to vote in the mayoral election. Those who are temporarily away from London (for example, away working, on holiday, in student accommodation or in hospital) will also be entitled to vote in the mayoral election. The deadline to register to vote in the election will be midnight on Tuesday, 19 April 2016.[13]

Possible candidates and their selection processes

The nomination period for mayoral candidates is from 21 to 31 March 2016. Confirmation of candidates will only occur after nominations formally open. Among other requirements, candidates must be over 18, submit the signatures of 330 supporters (ten from each borough), a £10,000 deposit, and not have been sentenced to over three months in prison in the previous five years.[14]

Conservative Party

Zac Goldsmith, Conservative candidate

Seven people registered to be candidates for the Conservative Party.[15] Of these, three candidates were eliminated: Philippa Roe, leader of Westminster City Council; Ivan Massow, financial services entrepreneur, gay rights campaigner, and media personality; and Sol Campbell, former England football player.[16] Four nominees went into a primary, registration to which was open to anyone in London who is on the electoral roll.[17] The candidate was announced on 2 October to be Zac Goldsmith, journalist, author and MP for Richmond Park.[18][19] The defeated nominees were: Andrew Boff, leader of the Conservative Party in the London Assembly;[15] Stephen Greenhalgh, businessman and Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime;[15] and Syed Kamall, academic, Chairman of the European Conservatives and Reformists, and MEP for London.[15]

Election Political result Candidate Party Votes % ±%
Conservative Party Candidate Selection [20]
Turnout: 9,227
Conservative Zac Goldsmith selected as
Candidate for Mayor of London
Majority: 5,037 (54.6%)
Zac GoldsmithConservative6,51470.6
Syed Kamall Conservative1,47716.0
Stephen Greenhalgh Conservative8649.4
Andrew Boff Conservative3724.0

Goldsmith, a member of the prominent Goldsmith family, grew up in Ham, London. His early career was spent working in think-tanks and for The Ecologist magazine, of which he was editor from 2000 until 2006.[21][22] He left The Ecologist in 2006 when he became deputy chairman of the Conservative Party's Quality of Life Policy Group,[22] and he was subsequently elected as Conservative MP for Richmond Park at the 2010 general election. Goldsmith is a social and economic liberal,[23] arguing for a small state with direct democracy.[24] An environmentalist, Goldsmith opposes expansion of Heathrow and has vowed to continue investment in public transport.[25] He is in favour of 'right-to-buy' schemes for buying homes, and wants to expand housing stock through low-density, low-rise construction.[25] He is a Eurosceptic, though supports the Conservative Party policy of trying to renegotiate the UK's membership of the European Union.[26] Goldsmith's aristocratic background has been commented on, particularly in contrast to Khan's working-class roots, though some have suggested this may give Goldsmith an advantage.[27]

Labour Party

Sadiq Khan, Labour candidate

Eight politicians registered an interest in becoming the Labour Party candidate, of whom two—Keran Kerai, Labour Party member in Harrow East and Neeraj Patil, former Mayor of Lambeth and former Lambeth Borough Councillor for Larkhall Ward—were not shortlisted.[28] Between 14 August and 10 September, affiliated and registered supporters and members of the Labour Party in London voted for their preferred candidate.[28] The winning candidate was Sadiq Khan, with 59% of the vote.[3] He defeated: Diane Abbott, former Shadow Minister for Public Health, candidate for leader in 2010 and MP for Hackney North and Stoke Newington;[28] Tessa Jowell, former Olympics Minister and former MP for Dulwich and West Norwood;[28] David Lammy, former Universities Minister and MP for Tottenham;[28] Gareth Thomas, Shadow Foreign Office Minister, Chair of the Co-operative Party and MP for Harrow West; and Christian Wolmar, journalist, author, and railway historian.[28]

Khan was elected to Parliament as MP for Tooting at the 2005 general election, having previously worked as a Human rights lawyer.[29] After being the campaign manager for Ed Miliband in the latter's successful bid to become Labour Party leader,[30] Khan was appointed to the Shadow Cabinet as Shadow Secretary of State for Justice in 2010, a post from which he resigned after the 2015 General Election and Miliband's resignation as Labour leader.[31]

Labour Party Candidate Selection[32]
Round Sadiq Khan Tessa Jowell Diane Abbott David Lammy Christian Wolmar Gareth Thomas
Votes Percent Votes Percent Votes Percent Votes Percent Votes Percent Votes Percent
First round 32,926
37.5% 26,121
29.7% 14,798
16.8% 8,225
9.4% 4,729
5.4% 1,055Red X
1.2%
Second round 33,141
37.8% 26,406
30.1% 14,957
17.0% 8,392
9.6% 4,927Red X
5.6%
Third round 34,813
40.0% 27,272
31.3% 15,878
18.2%9,147Red X
10.5%
Fourth round38,440
44.7% 29,785
34.6%17,849Red X
20.7%
Fifth round48,151Green tick
58.9%33,575Red X
41.1%

Khan's selection as a candidate was seen as part of a wider move towards the left in Labour that emerged during the leadership election that followed Miliband's resignation.[3] Key policies that Khan has proposed include a London 'living rent';[33] a quota system for ethnic minority officers in the Metropolitan Police;[34] increased home building;[35] and a campaign for a London Living Wage.[36] Commentators raised Khan's Muslim religion as a potential barrier to election, after a poll (not mentioning Khan by name) suggested that 31% of Londoners would be 'uncomfortable' with a Muslim mayor.[37] Khan, who was London's first Muslim MP, argued that the election of a Muslim could encourage London to become recognised as a more cosmopolitan city.[37] While Khan previously stated that he would serve a full term as MP for Tooting if he were to become Mayor of London,[38] he has since said he would stand down as MP for Tooting if he was elected Mayor.[39]

Green Party

Green Party candidate Siân Berry

Jenny Jones, the Green party's candidate in 2012, and Natalie Bennett, leader of the Green Party of England and Wales, both declined to stand for the Green nomination.[40] Six candidates were shortlisted for the nomination,[40][41] with Siân Berry, the party's candidate in 2008, selected by London-based members of the Green Party.[42] Unsuccessful nominees were Jonathan Bartley (candidate for Streatham in the 2015 general election, co-founder of Ekklesia, and Work and Pensions Spokesperson for the Green Party);[40] Tom Chance (candidate for Lewisham West and Penge in the 2015 general election and Housing Spokesperson for the Greens);[40] Benali Hamdach (Equalities Spokesperson for the Green Party, and former NHS researcher);[40] Rashid Nix (a Camera operator and candidate for Dulwich and West Norwood in the 2015 general election;[40] and Caroline Russell (Islington Borough Councillor for Highbury East Ward since 2014 and clean air campaigner).[40]

Election Political result Candidate Party Votes % ±%
Green Party Candidate Selection [43]
Turnout: 1,890 (16.4%)
Green Siân Berry selected as
Candidate for Mayor of London
Majority: ~686 (36.3%)
Siân BerryGreen~94349.9
Jonathan Bartley Green~25713.6
Caroline Russell Green~25113.3
Rashid Nix Green~20410.8
Tom Chance Green~1598.4
Benali Hamdach Green~723.8
Re-open Nominations Green~40.2

Berry joined the Green Party aged 28, becoming a prominent green transport campaigner.[44][45] She was Principal Speaker of the Green Party from 2006–07, before becoming the Green candidate for the 2008 mayoral election.[46] Having first stood for election at Camden Borough Council, where she lives, in 2002, she was elected to the council in May 2014.[47] Having had a variety of jobs,[46] she is now primarily an author as well as working for the Campaign for Better Transport.[47] Berry has made increasing affordable housing a key policy area in her mayoral campaign,[44] through brownfield building, capping rents and preventing foreign businesses from purchasing homes.[48] Her aim is to prioritise sustainability oriented policies over those which seek economic growth.[49]

Liberal Democrats

Caroline Pidgeon, Liberal Democrat candidate

The Liberal Democrats opened their selection process on 8 June 2015. Applications were due by noon on 22 June 2015[50] and six potential nominees stood to be candidates.[51] Four of these were not shortlisted: Brian Haley, a former Labour councillor in Haringey, he unsuccessfully stood for the Liberal Democrat candidacy in 2012; Teena Lashmore, a criminologist, community activist and Liberal Democrat candidate in Bethnal Green and Bow at the 2015 general election; Marisha Ray, a former councillor in Islington; and Paul Reynolds, former councillor.[51][52] Of the remaining candidates, Duwayne Brooks OBE, former councillor in Lewisham, subsequently withdrew due to his commitments to a review of police stop and search powers.[52] This left Caroline Pidgeon, leader of the Liberal Democrats on the London Assembly,[53][54] as the only remaining candidate. She was selected, winning 90% of the 3669 votes on a 39% turnout, against the option to Re-Open Nominations,[55][56] as announced on 17 September 2015.[57]

Pidgeon graduated from the University College of Wales, Aberystwyth in 1994, moving to London to work in local government and later for the NHS.[58] She was elected as a councillor in Southwark in 1998, where she served until being elected to the London Assembly in 2008.[58] She became leader of the Liberal Democrat assembly group, a position she held after their number was reduced to just 2 in the 2012 London Assembly Election,[59] the same year in which she was awarded an MBE for public service.[60] Pidegon has promised to focus on housing, affordable childcare, air pollution and public transport.[61] She has emphasised the need to ensure that workers can live in the city by using rent control and reducing public transport costs.[61]

UK Independence Party

The UKIP candidate was elected via a selection committee, contrasting with previous Mayoral candidate selections that had been chosen by London-based party members.[62] While the supposed favourite for selection among party members was Suzanne Evans, UKIP Deputy Chairman, former Interim Leader, Welfare Spokesman and candidate for Shrewsbury and Atcham in the 2015 general election,[63] press such as The Spectator speculated that the decision had been moved to a committee to allow for the selection of leader Nigel Farage's preferred candidate, Peter Whittle, Culture Spokesman and candidate for Eltham in the 2015 general election.[62][63] UKIP claimed that the changed selection process was intended to produce a candidate with the potential for receiving the most votes.[62] Whittle was eventually selected, and announced as the candidate at the UKIP party conference on 26 September 2015.[64][65] No shortlist was released but others who had stated their intention to stand had included: Alan Craig, former Leader of and Mayoral candidate in 2008 for the Christian Peoples Alliance, and UKIP candidate for Brent North in the 2015 general election;[66] Peter Harris, candidate for Dagenham and Rainham in the 2015 general election;[66] Richard Hendron, LGBT activist and candidate for Brentford and Isleworth in the 2015 general election;[63][67] Elizabeth Jones, candidate for Dartford in the 2015 general election;[41] David Kurten, candidate for Camberwell and Peckham in the 2015 general election;[68] Winston McKenzie, perennial candidate and UKIP candidate for Croydon North in the 2015 general election;[41] and Shneur Odze, former Hackney councillor.[69]

Whittle was born in Peckham, before studying at the University of Kent.[70] He worked in journalism, before founding the New Culture Forum think-tank in 2006.[64] He became UKIP's cultural spokesperson in 2013[65] and stood for Eltham a the 2015 general election, receiving 15% of the vote.[70] Whittle is the only LGBT candidate currently selected by any of the major parties for this election.[71] Whittle supports the UK's exit from the European Union, and believes that this would not damage London's financial industries.[64] He has pledged to work to ensure that workers can afford to live in London, and opposes further expansion of Heathrow Airport.[64]

Other parties

Independents

The following independent candidates have announced they are intending to run:

Opinion polls

In the run up to the election, several polling organisations will carry out public opinion polling in regard to voting intentions. Results of these polls are displayed below. Some polls are reported excluding undecideds, while for others, they are reported as a separate group.

2016

Date Firm Sample Size First Round Second Round
Goldsmith Khan Berry Pidgeon Whittle Galloway Others Goldsmith Khan
4-6 Jan YouGov 1,156 35% 45% 5% 4% 6% 2% 2% 45% 55%

2015

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Conservatives Labour Greens Lib Dems UKIP Others
18–21 November 2015[n 1] YouGov 1,008 24% 26% 3% 3% 4% 2%
16–24 September 2015 ICM 2,006 36% 40% 7% 6% 6% 1%
17 August 2015 Survation 1,000 35% 44% 6% 5% 7% 3%
8 June–12 August 2015 YouGov 3,436 38% 42% 4% 5% 9% 1%

Campaign

Before October 2015

Early campaigning began with the process of major parties selecting candidates, after the 2015 General Election. The first party candidate to be announced was Lindsey Garrett of the Something New party on 18 May,[90] though she later decided not to stand.[91] The major parties all parties declared candidates in September.[41] Early issues that were highlighted by multiple candidates included:[92]

Early Campaign: October 2015 – present

The final polls from before the announcement of candidates gave Labour a four-point lead over the Conservative Party.[109] From early in the campaign, the contest has been presumed to be between the Labour and Conservative party candidates, with both expected to comfortably reach the second round of voting.[110] While Zac Goldsmith - who was the last of the main candidates to be announced, on 3 October 2015 - was widely anticipated to be the Conservative candidate,[111] Khan's selection was more of a surprise.[112]

The first months of the campaign were dominated by the heightened terrorist threat in London, following a series of successful and planned attacks by Islamic State in 2015, particularly the November 2015 Paris attacks and a lone knife attack at Leytonstone tube station in on 6 December.[113] Khan's comments on how British Muslims might respond to the Paris attacks raised positive comments from both supporters and opponents.[114][115] A subsequent leaflet distributed by Goldmsith's campaign team described Khan as "divisive and radical”, comments that Labour claimed were an attempt to associate Khan with radical Islam.[116][117] The Conservative Party rejected the accusation, claiming that Khan was "playing the race card"[118]

Elsewhere in the campaign, transport remained a major issue. David Cameron's deferral in December 2015 of a decision on plans for a third runway at Heathrow Airport until after the election was interpreted as an attempt to avoid a clash with Goldsmith, his party's candidate, on the issue.[119] Caroline Pidgeon and Siân Berry both promised changes to the fares system to reduce commuter costs on the Tube,[120] while Khan and incumbent Conservative mayor Boris Johnson clashed over planned Tube strikes.[121] An early January 2016 poll gave Khan a 10-point lead over Goldsmith,[122] with bookmakers and pundits all favouring a Khan victory, though most agreed that the race was still open.[123]

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  1. Poll does not re-allocate those not expressing a preference for a candidate - 32% of respondents were undecided and 5% answered that they would not vote. Of those voters expressing a preference for a candidate, the proportions supporting each candidate/party would be in the following ranges (the bounds of the ranges are rounded to the nearest integer): Con 37-40%, Lab 40-43%, Green 4-6%, LD 4-6%, UKIP, 5-7%, Others 2-4%
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