2015–16 South Pacific cyclone season

2015–16 South Pacific cyclone season
Season summary map
First system formed July 29, 2015
Last system dissipated Season ongoing
Strongest storm1 Ula – 945 hPa (mbar), 185 km/h (115 mph) (10-minute sustained)
Total disturbances 10
Total depressions 8
Tropical cyclones 5
Severe tropical cyclones 3
Total fatalities 4 total
Total damage Unknown
1Strongest storm is determined by lowest pressure
South Pacific tropical cyclone seasons
2013–14, 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18
Related articles

The 2015–16 South Pacific cyclone season is the period of the year when most tropical cyclones form within the South Pacific Ocean to, the east of 160°E. The season officially runs from November 1, 2015 to April 30, 2016, however a tropical cyclone could form at any time between July 1, 2015 and June 30, 2016 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored by the Fiji Meteorological Service and the Meteorological Service of New Zealand (MetService). Other warning centres like the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) will also monitor the basin. The FMS and MetService both use the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale and estimate windspeeds over a period of ten minutes, while the JTWC estimated sustained winds over a 1-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS).

Seasonal forecasts

Source/Record Tropical
Cyclone		 Severe
Tropical Cyclone		 Ref
Record high: 1997–98: 16 1982–83: 10 [1]
Record low: 2003–04:  3 2008–09:  0 [1]
Average (1969-70 - 2014-15): 7.3  — [2]
Fiji Meteorological Service 10-14 4-8 [2]
NIWA October 11-13 >6 [3]
Region Chance of
above average		 Average
number		 Actual
activity
Western South Pacific 15% 7 1
Eastern South Pacific 48% 10 4
Source:BOM's Seasonal Outlooks for Tropical Cyclones.[4]

After the occurrences of Tropical Cyclone Raquel and Tropical Depression 01F during July and August 2015, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) noted that an ongoing El Niño episode, might mean that more tropical cyclones occur in the basin than usual during the season.[5][6] It was also noted that during previous El Nino episodes the season started early, with systems developing before the start of the season on November 1.[5][6] As a result, the FMS expected the tropical cyclone season to start during October 2015.[5][6] During September 24, Meteo France announced that there was a 90% chance of either a moderate tropical storm, severe tropical storm or tropical cyclone, impacting the waters surrounding French Polynesia during the season.[7] Ahead of the cyclone season, the FMS, the BoM, Meteo France, New Zealand's MetService and National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2015.[3]

The outlook took into account the strong El Niño conditions that had been observed across the Pacific and analogue seasons that had ENSO neutral and weak El Niño conditions occurring during the season.[3] The outlook called for an above average number of tropical cyclones for the 2015–16 season, with eleven to thirteen named tropical cyclones to occur between 135°E and 120°W compared to an average of 10-12.[3] At least six of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while four could become category 4 severe tropical cyclones. It was also noted that Category 5 severe tropical cyclones, with 10-minute sustained windspeeds of 196 km/h (122 mph) were known to occur during El Nino events.[3] In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook the BoM and the FMS, issued their own seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region.[2][4] The BoM issued a seasonal forecast for both the Western and Eastern South Pacific.[4] The Western region between 142.5°E and 165°E was predicted to have a 15% chance of having an above average number of tropical cyclones, while the Eastern region between 165°E and 120°W was predicted to have a 48% chance of having an above average number of tropical cyclones.[4] Within their outlook the FMS predicted that between ten and fourteen tropical cyclones, would occur within the basin compared to an average of around 7.3 cyclones.[2] Between four and eight of these tropical cyclones were expected to intensify into category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while 3-7 might intensify into Category 4 or 5 severe tropical cyclones.[2] They also reported that the tropical cyclone genesis trough was expected to be displaced far eastwards of its long term average position.[2] This was based on the expected and predicted ENSO conditions, and the existence of the Pacific warm pool of sub-surface temperature anomalies in this region.[2]

Both the Island Climate Update and the FMS tropical cyclone outlooks assessed the risk of a tropical cyclone affecting a certain island or territory.[2][3] As the tropical cyclone genesis trough of low pressure was expected to be located near to and to the east of the International Dateline, normal or slightly above normal activity was expected for areas near the dateline.[2][3] With the exception of Kiribati, Papua New Guinea, New Caledonia, Niue, and Tonga, the Island Climate Update predicted that all areas would experience an elevated risk of being affected by multiple tropical cyclones.[3] The FMS's outlook predicted that the Solomon and Northern Cook Islands, Wallis and Futuna, Tokelau, Samoa, and French Polynesia had a highly elevated chance of being affected by a tropical cyclone.[2] Vanuatu, Fiji, Niue, and the Southern Cook Islands had an elevated risk, while a normal risk was anticipated for New Caledonia, Tuvalu, and Tonga.[2]

Seasonal summary

Cyclone Ula

As the 2015-16 tropical cyclone year opened, Tropical Cyclone Raquel was active within the Australian Region and affecting the Solomon Islands with heavy rain and high winds. The system subsequently moved into the basin as a weakening tropical depression during July 2, before it was last noted within the Australian region during July 5. Later that month RSMC Nadi started to monitor Tropical Disturbance 01F, which had developed to the north-northeast of Honiara in the Solomon Islands. Over the next few days the system slowly organised further, before it was classified as Tropical Cyclone 01P by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre during August 2.

Storms

Tropical Depression 01F

Tropical depression (Australian scale)
Tropical storm (SSHWS)
Duration July 29 – August 4
Peak intensity 65 km/h (40 mph) (1-min)  1000 hPa (mbar)

The first tropical depression of the season was first noted as a tropical disturbance by the FMS, while it was located about 920 km (570 mi) to the north-northeast of Honiara in the Solomon Islands.[8][9] The system lay to the north of an upper level subtropical ridge of high pressure in an area of moderate vertical wind shear.[8] Over the next couple of days the system slowly organised further as it steered south-eastwards into an area of decreasing vertical wind shear.[10] As a result of further organization it was classified as a tropical depression during August 1. Late on August 4, the FMS issued its final advisory on the system as it reported that the system was not expected to develop.

Tropical Depression 02F

Tropical depression (Australian scale)
Tropical storm (SSHWS)
Duration October 12 – October 18
Peak intensity 45 km/h (30 mph) (10-min)  1001 hPa (mbar)

During October 12, Tropical Disturbance 02F developed along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, while it was located about 450 km (280 mi) to the northwest of Rotuma.[11][12] The system was located within a favourable environment for further development, with low to moderate vertical wind shear, and it lay under an upper-level ridge of high pressure.[11][13] Despite all of this, the system dissipated on October 18.

Tropical Cyclone Tuni

Category 1 tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Tropical storm (SSHWS)
Duration November 23 – December 2
Peak intensity 75 km/h (45 mph) (10-min)  991 hPa (mbar)

On November 23, Tropical Disturbance 03F developed within a trough of low pressure, about 500 km (310 mi) to the northeast of Suva, Fiji.[14] The system lay in an area of low to moderate vertical wind shear, to the south of an upper-level ridge of high pressure.[14]

There was no significant damage recorded in Niue, as the system brushed the island nation.[15]

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula

Category 4 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Category 4 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
Duration December 26 – January 12
Peak intensity 185 km/h (115 mph) (10-min)  945 hPa (mbar)
Main article: Cyclone Ula

During December 26, Tropical Disturbance 05F developed within a monsoon trough, about 465 km (290 mi) to the south-east of the Honiara in the Solomon Islands. The system lay under an upper level ridge of high pressure in an area of moderate to high vertical wind shear. Over the next few days the system moved eastwards and gradually developed further, becoming a tropical depression during December 29, while it was located to the north of the Samoan Islands.

Tropical Depression 07F

Tropical depression (Australian scale)
Duration December 28 – January 1
Peak intensity Winds unknown  995 hPa (mbar)

Three people died in seagoing accidents related to Tropical Depression 07F, while four others went missing.[16]

Severe Tropical Cyclone Victor

Category 3 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Category 2 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
Duration January 10 – January 24
Peak intensity 150 km/h (90 mph) (10-min)  960 hPa (mbar)

During January 10, the FMS reported that Tropical Disturbance 08F had developed about 100 km (60 mi) to the northwest of Penrhyn in the Northern Cook Islands.[17] A few days later, the system was classified as an invest, until JTWC classified it with a low-chance of developing to a tropical cyclone on January 13.[18] Later in that same day, 08F was upgraded to a tropical depression.[19] On January 14, the JTWC issued a TCFA alert as 08F was located in moderate wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures, which were conductive for tropical development.[20] Hours later, the JTWC upgraded 08F to a tropical cyclone as it was designated as 07P and started issuing advisories, located 368 mi (592 km) east of Pago Pago, American Samoa.[21] On January 15, 08F was upgraded to a Category 1 tropical cyclone and was therefore named Victor.[22] On January 18, Victor intensified into a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone, while the JTWC upgraded it to a Category 2 cyclone.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston

Winston 1

Satellite image

Forecast map
Current storm status
Category 2 tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Current storm status
Category 1 tropical cyclone (1-min mean)
As of: 12:00 FST (00:00 UTC), February 15
Location: 22°42′S 179°48′E / 22.7°S 179.8°E / -22.7; 179.8 (Winston)

416 nmi (770 km) S of Suva, Fiji

Winds: 110 km/h (70 mph) sustained (10-min mean)
120 km/h (75 mph) sustained (1-min mean)
Pressure: 975 hPa (mbar; 28.64 inHg)
Movement: ESE at 13 kn (24 km/h; 15 mph)
See more detailed information.

Tropical Cyclone Tatiana

Category 2 tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Tropical storm (SSHWS)
Duration February 12 (Entered basin) – February 13
Peak intensity 95 km/h (60 mph) (10-min)  983 hPa (mbar)

During February 12, Tropical Cyclone Tatiana moved across 160°E and moved into the South Pacific basin, as a Category 2 tropical cyclone with 10-minute sustained winds of 95 km/h (60 mph).[23]

Other systems

As the 2015-16 tropical cyclone year opened on July 1, Tropical Cyclone Raquel, was located in the Australian region to the north-west of Honiara.[24] Over the next 24 hours, the system recurved eastwards and weakened into a tropical depression, as it entered the basin on July 2.[25] The system subsequently moved westwards and out of the basin during July 4, as it impacted the Solomon Islands, with high wind gusts and heavy rain.[24][25] Tropical Disturbance 04F was first noted on December 1, while it was located about 640 km (400 mi) to the northeast of Papeete in French Polynesia.[26] Over the next day the poorly organised system moved westwards, underneath an upper level ridge of high pressure before it dissipated during December 2.[27][28] On December 27, Tropical Disturbance 06F formed just south of Tropical Depression 05F in the Eastern South Pacific. Over the next few days the system struggled with high vertical wind shear from 05F, which later strengthened into Tropical Cyclone Ula, as it finally got absorbed into 05F on December 30.

Storm names

Within the Southern Pacific a tropical depression is judged to have reached tropical cyclone intensity should it reach winds of 65 km/h, (40 mph) and it is evident that gales are occurring at least halfway around the center. With tropical depressions intensifying into a tropical cyclone between the Equator and 25°S and between 160°E - 120°W named by the RSMC Nadi. However should a tropical depression intensify to the south of 25°S between 160°E and 120°W it will be named in conjunction with RSMC Nadi by TCWC Wellington. Should a tropical cyclone move out of the basin and into the Australian region it will retain its original name and vice versa.[29]

  • Tuni
  • Ula
  • Victor
  • Winston (active)
  • Yalo (unused)
  • Zena (unused)
  • Amos (unused)
  • Bart (unused)
  • Colin (unused)
  • Donna (unused)

Season effects

This table lists all the storms that developed in the South Pacific to the east of longitude 160°E during the 2015–16 season. It includes their intensity on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale, duration, name, landfalls, deaths, and damages. All data is taken from RSMC Nadi and/or TCWC Wellington, and all of the damage figures are in 2015 USD.

Name Dates active Peak classification Sustained
wind speeds		 Pressure Land areas affected Damage
(USD)		 Deaths Refs
Raquel July 2 – 4 Tropical depression 45 km/h (30 mph) 998 hPa (29.47 inHg) Solomon Islands None None
01F July 29 – August 4 Tropical depression Not Specified 1000 hPa (29.53 inHg) Solomon Islands, Vanuatu None None
02F October 12 – 18 Tropical depression 45 km/h (30 mph) 1001 hPa (29.56 inHg) Vanuatu None None
Tuni November 23 – December 2 Category 1 tropical cyclone 75 km/h (45 mph) 991 hPa (29.26 inHg) Tuvalu, Wallis and Futuna
Samoan Islands, Niue 		None None
04F December 1 – 2 Tropical disturbance Not Specified 1003 hPa (29.62 inHg) French Polynesia None None
Ula December 26 – January 12 Category 4 severe tropical cyclone 185 km/h (115 mph) 945 hPa (27.91 inHg) Tuvalu, Samoan Islands, Tonga, Fiji
Vanuatu, New Caledonia 		None 1
06F December 27 – 30 Tropical disturbance Not Specified 997 hPa (29.44 inHg) Wallis and Futuna None None
07F December 28 – January 1 Tropical depression Not Specified 995 hPa (29.38 inHg) Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Fiji None 3 [30]
Victor January 10 – 24 Category 3 severe tropical cyclone 150 km/h (90 mph) 960 hPa (28.35 inHg) Northern Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga None None
Winston February 7 – present Category 4 severe tropical cyclone 175 km/h (110 mph) 947 hPa (27.96 inHg) Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga None None
Tatiana February 12 – 13 Category 2 tropical cyclone 95 km/h (60 mph) 983 hPa (29.03 inHg) None None None
Season Aggregates
10 systems July 29 – Present 185 km/h (115 mph) 945 hPa (27.91 inHg) Unknown 4

Notes

    See also

    References

    1. 1 2 Climate Services Division; RSMC Nadi — Tropical Cyclone Centre (October 26, 2010). Tropical Cyclone Guidance for Season 2010/11 for the Fiji and the Southwest Pacific (Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 27, 2012. Retrieved July 10, 2012.
    2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 RSMC Nadi — Tropical Cyclone Centre (October 22, 2015). "2015–16 Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook in the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre Nadi – Tropical Cyclone Centre (RSMC Nadi – TCC) Area of Responsibility (AOR)". Fiji Meteorological Service. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 22, 2015. Retrieved October 22, 2015.
    3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 "Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook: El Niño expected to produce severe tropical storms in the Southwest Pacific" (Press release). New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. October 14, 2015. Archived from the original on October 16, 2015. Retrieved October 22, 2014.
    4. 1 2 3 4 National Climate Centre (October 14, 2015). "2015–2016 South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on October 16, 2015. Retrieved October 16, 2015.
    5. 1 2 3 Moceituba, Atasa (August 17, 2015). "'Cyclones in October'". The Fiji Times (Suva, Fiji). Archived (PDF) from the original on August 25, 2015. Retrieved October 7, 2015.
    6. 1 2 3 Moceituba, Atasa (October 6, 2015). "Cyclone Shift". The Fiji Times (Suva, Fiji). Archived (PDF) from the original on October 7, 2015. Retrieved October 7, 2015.
    7. ↑ "Saison chaude 2015-2016: le risque cyclonique est de plus de 90% sur la Polynésie française" [Hot season 2015-2016: the cyclone risk is over 90% in French Polynesia]. La Dépêche de Tahiti (in French) (Papeete, Tahiti). September 24, 2015. Archived from the original on October 10, 2015. Retrieved October 10, 2015.
    8. 1 2 RSMC Nadi — Tropical Cyclone Centre (July 29, 2015). "Tropical Disturbance Summary July 29, 2015 23z". Fiji Meteorological Service. Archived from the original on July 30, 2015. Retrieved July 31, 2015.
    9. ↑ Young, Steve (August 31, 2015). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks: July 2015". Australian Severe Weather. Archived from the original on October 10, 2015. Retrieved October 10, 2015.
    10. ↑ RSMC Nadi — Tropical Cyclone Centre (July 31, 2015). "Tropical Disturbance Summary July 31, 2015 09z". Fiji Meteorological Service. Archived from the original on July 31, 2015. Retrieved July 31, 2015.
    11. 1 2 RSMC Nadi — Tropical Cyclone Centre (October 12, 2015). "Tropical Disturbance Summary October 12, 2015 21z". Fiji Meteorological Service. Archived from the original on October 14, 2015. Retrieved October 18, 2015.
    12. ↑ Climate Services Division (November 8, 2015). Fiji Climate Summary: October 2015 (Report) 36. Fiji Meteorological Service. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 12, 2015. Retrieved January 5, 2015.
    13. ↑ http://www.webcitation.org/6cFn8zDsC
    14. 1 2 RSMC Nadi — Tropical Cyclone Centre (November 23, 2015). "Tropical Disturbance Summary November 23, 2015 21z". Fiji Meteorological Service. Archived from the original on November 24, 2015. Retrieved December 1, 2015.
    15. ↑ "Niue escapes major damage from Cyclone Tuni". ABC News.
    16. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone Ula – Situation Report No. 8 (as of 1600 hours, 03/01/2016)". Fiji Sun. National Emergency Operation Centre. January 3, 2016. Retrieved January 9, 2016.
    17. ↑ "Tropical Disturbance Summary January 10, 2016 23z". Fiji Meteorological Service. January 10, 2016. Archived from the original on January 11, 2016. Retrieved January 11, 2016.
    18. ↑ "SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZJAN2016". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. January 13, 2016.
    19. ↑ "Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W". Fiji Meteorological Agency. January 13, 2016. Retrieved January 14, 2016.
    20. ↑ "WTPS21 PGTW 141030". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. January 14, 2016.
    21. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone 07P (Seven) Warning Nr 001". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. January 14, 2016. Retrieved January 15, 2016.
    22. ↑ http://www.webcitation.org/6eYYa8yDI
    23. ↑ http://www.webcitation.org/6fH9Vt2rh
    24. 1 2 Young, Steve (July 27, 2015). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks: June 2015". Australian Severe Weather. Archived from the original on August 2, 2015. Retrieved August 2, 2015.
    25. 1 2 Queensland Regional Office (2015). Tropical Cyclone Raquel (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on September 11, 2015. Retrieved September 11, 2015.
    26. ↑ RSMC Nadi — Tropical Cyclone Centre (December 1, 2015). "Tropical Disturbance Summary December 1, 2015 21z". Fiji Meteorological Service. Archived from the original on December 1, 2015. Retrieved December 3, 2015.
    27. ↑ RSMC Nadi — Tropical Cyclone Centre (December 2, 2015). "Tropical Disturbance Summary December 2, 2015 09z". Fiji Meteorological Service. Archived from the original on December 2, 2015. Retrieved December 3, 2015.
    28. ↑ Joint Typhoon Warning Center (December 2, 2015). "Significant Tropical Weather Outlook for the Western and South Pacific Ocean December 2, 2015 06z". United States Navy, United States Airforce. Archived from the original on December 2, 2015. Retrieved December 2, 2015.
    29. ↑ RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee (May 5, 2015). Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for the South-East Indian Ocean and the Southern Pacific Ocean 2014 (PDF) (Report). World Meteorological Organization. Retrieved August 2, 2015.
    30. ↑ http://www.pacificdisaster.net/pdnadmin/data/original/FJI_TC_Ula_NEOC_SitRep_12.pdf

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