2015–16 Australian region cyclone season

2015–16 Australian region cyclone season
Season summary map
First system formed 17 December 2015
Last system dissipated Season ongoing
Strongest storm1 Stan – 975 hPa (mbar), 110 km/h (70 mph) (10-minute sustained)
Tropical lows 7
Tropical cyclones 3
Total fatalities 0 total
Total damage Unknown
1Strongest storm is determined by lowest pressure
Australian region tropical cyclone seasons
2013–14, 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18
Related articles

The 2015–16 Australian region cyclone season is a current event in the ongoing cycle of tropical cyclone formation. It officially started on 1 November 2015, and will end on 30 April 2016; however a tropical cyclone could form at any time between 1 July 2015 and 30 June 2016 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored, by one of the five Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs) that operate in this region. Three of the five centres are operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in Perth, Darwin, and Brisbane, while the other two are operated by the National Weather Service of Papua New Guinea in Port Moresby and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics in Jakarta, Indonesia. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France and the Fiji Meteorological Service will also monitor the basin during the season.

The season had a very late start, with the first named storm, Stan, developing by the end of January. However unofficially, Raquel formed very early in the month of July, though it was considered to be part of the 2014-15 season.

Seasonal forecasts

Region Average
number		 Chance of
more		 Chance of
less		 Actual
activity
Whole 11 9% 91% 3
Western 7 25% 75% 2
North-Western 5 15% 85% 1
Northern 3 36% 64%
Eastern 4 27% 83% 1
Western South Pacific 7 15% 85% 1
Eastern South Pacific 10 48% 52% 4
Source: BOM's Seasonal Outlooks for Tropical Cyclones.[1][2]

Ahead of the cyclone season, the FMS, the BoM, Meteo France, New Zealand's MetService and National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2015.[3] The outlook took into account the strong El Niño conditions that had been observed across the Pacific and analogue seasons that had ENSO neutral and weak El Niño conditions occurring during the season.[3] The outlook called for an above average number of tropical cyclones for the 2015–16 season, with eleven to thirteen named tropical cyclones to occur between 135°E and 120°W compared to an average of 10-12.[3] At least six of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while four could become category 4 severe tropical cyclones. It was also noted that Category 5 severe tropical cyclones, with 10-minute sustained windspeeds of 196 km/h (122 mph) were known to occur during El Nino events.[3]

In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, the BoM issued seven seasonal forecasts during October 2015, for the Australian region and the Southern Pacific with each forecast covering the whole tropical cyclone year.[1] It was forecast that the region would less active than during previous years, with a 91% chance of a below average amount of tropical cyclones, because of the strong El Niño episode that had developed over the Pacific Ocean.[1] It was also noted that the first tropical cyclone landfall might be later than usual, with the average first landfall taking place in January during El Niño conditions.[1] For the Western region between 90°E and 125°E, the BoM forecast that the area would also see activity below its average of 7, with a 25% chance of an above average number of tropical cyclones occurring.[1] TCWC Perth also noted that there was a likelihood of two tropical cyclones and a significant likelihood of at least one severe tropical cyclone impacting Western Australia.[4] For the North-Western subregion between 105°E and 130°E, it was predicted that activity would be below average, with a 15% chance of above average tropical cyclone activity.[1] The Northern Territory which was defined as being between as being 125°E and 142.5°E had a 36% chance of an above average season.[1] The Eastern region between 142.5°E and 160°E was predicted to have a near normal tropical cyclone season, though it was noted that there was a possibility of a delayed start to the season.[1] The BoM issued a seasonal forecast for both the Western and Eastern South Pacific.[2] The Western region between 142.5°E and 165°E was predicted to have a 15% chance of having an above average number of tropical cyclones, while the Eastern region between 165°E and 120°W was predicted to have a 48% chance of having an above average number of tropical cyclones.[2]

Seasonal summary

As the 2015-16 tropical cyclone year started on 1 July, Tropical Cyclone Raquel moved into the Australian region from the South Pacific basin as it impacted the Solomon Islands with heavy rain. Over the next day the system weakened below tropical cyclone intensity, as it moved eastwards and back into the South Pacific basin. The system subsequently moved back into the Australian region during 4 July, before it was last noted during the next day as it rapidly lost its tropical characteristics.

Storms

Tropical Low 04U

Tropical low (Australian scale)
Duration 17 December – 23 December
Peak intensity Winds unknown  1006 hPa (mbar)

On 16 December, TCWC Perth mentioned that a tropical low may develop northwest of Christmas Island.[5] The agency declared to be a tropical low by the next day when it was producing convection in its area.[6] On 20 December, TCWC Jakarta issued an advisory as the low was inside their area of responsibility, as it was located about 567 km (352 mi) south-southwest of Tanjung Karang.[7] TCWC Perth forecast the low would intensify to a tropical cyclone and move into the Western Region by 24 hours on 21 December.[8] The low was later designated as 04U on 23 December, however this was the last advisory issued by TCWC Perth and rapidly dissipated overnight.[9][10]

Tropical Low 05U

Tropical low (Australian scale)
Duration 21 December – 1 January
Peak intensity 55 km/h (35 mph) (10-min)  994 hPa (mbar)

Tropical Low 05U developed over land near Borroloola in the Northern Territory during 21 December.[11] Over the next couple of days, the system gradually deepened further as it moved west-northwest inland and passed near Daly Waters and Katherine. The system subsequently approached Darwin during 24 December, where it was causing near gale force winds offshore. On 26 December, 05U was embedded within a monsoon, giving a potential of intensifying into a tropical cyclone.[12] Couple of days later, 05U drifted southeastwards towards land and failed to reach tropical cyclone intensity.[13] The system was last noted on 2 January while it was located over the Simpson Desert in Queensland, as it was not clear if the low continued towards the east coast or another system had developed.[11]

Tropical Cyclone Stan

Category 2 tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Category 1 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
Duration 27 January – 31 January
Peak intensity 110 km/h (70 mph) (10-min)  975 hPa (mbar)

During 27 January, the BoM reported that Tropical Low 08U had developed about 750 km (465 mi) to the north of Port Hedland, Western Australia.[14] The system was located within a favourable environment for further development and was forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days, as it moved southwards towards the coast of Western Australia. 08U was subsequently declared a Category 1 tropical cyclone during 29 January and was named Stan by the BoM.

Tropical Cyclone Uriah

Category 2 tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Tropical storm (SSHWS)
Duration 8 February – 14 February (Exited basin)
Peak intensity 95 km/h (60 mph) (10-min)  982 hPa (mbar)

The system that became Tropical Low 09U was first noted within the monsoon trough, to the northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands on 8 February. Over the next few days the system struggled to develop further as it moved eastwards in a marginal area for further development, before it turned to the south-southwest as TCWC Perth started issuing advisories on 12 February.

Tropical Cyclone Tatiana

Category 2 tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Tropical storm (SSHWS)
Duration 10 February – 13 February
Peak intensity 95 km/h (60 mph) (10-min)  983 hPa (mbar)

On 10 February, TCWC Brisbane started to monitor a tropical low south of the Solomon Islands.[15] Later, the JTWC classified the low as a tropical storm with the identifier of 12P.[16] On 11 February, the agency started issuing advisories and was therefore designated as 10U.[17] Later that same day, 10U had intensified into a Category 1 tropical cyclone, and was named Tatiana.[18]

Other systems

Tropical Low 06U over in the Indian Ocean on 26 December

During 1 July as the 2015-16 tropical cyclone year opened, the newly named Tropical Cyclone Raquel moved south-westwards into the Australian region.[11][19] During that day the system started to move eastwards in response to the background westerly flow, before it weakened below tropical cyclone intensity as it moved back into the South Pacific basin during July 2.[11][19][20] The system subsequently moved back into the Australian region during 4 July, as it moved through the Solomon Islands.[19][21] The system was subsequently last noted by the BoM to the south-west of Guadalcanal, during 5 July as it rapidly lost its tropical characteristics.[22]

A low-pressure developed east of the 90th meridian east or the border of the basin on 26 December, and had a moderate chance of intensifying into a tropical cyclone.[23] TCWC Perth later classified it as a weak tropical low with the identifier of 06U.[24] On 28 December, as the low slowly moved south, unfavorable environments hinder the chance of being a cyclone.[25] TCWC Perth made its final bulletin of the tropical low as it slowly drifted west on 29 December.[26] During 19 January Tropical Low 07U developed within the monsoon trough of low pressure, about 300 km (185 mi) to the west of West Island in the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.[27] Over the next couple of days the system moved north-eastwards and tried to develop further in a marginally conducive environment for further development.[28] However, the system weakened during 21 January before it was last noted during 24 January as it was not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.[29][30]


Storm names

TCWC Jakarta

TCWC Jakarta monitor Tropical Cyclones from the Equator to 11S and from 90E to 145E. Should a Tropical Depression reach Tropical Cyclone strength within TCWC Jakarta's Area of Responsibility then it will be assigned the next name from the following list.[31]

Cempaka (unused) Dahlia (unused) Flamboyan (unused) Kenanga (unused) Lili (unused)
Mawar (unused) Seroja (unused) Teratai (unused) Anggrek (unused) Bakung (unused)

TCWC Port Moresby

Tropical cyclones that develop north of 11°S between 151°E and 160°E are assigned names by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Tropical cyclone formation in this area is rare, with no cyclones being named in it since 2007.[32] As names are assigned in a random order the whole list is shown below.

Alu (unused) Buri (unused) Dodo (unused) Emau (unused) Fere (unused)
Hibu (unused) Ila (unused) Kama (unused) Lobu (unused) Maila (unused)

Bureau of Meteorology

Since the start of the 2008–09 season, there has only been one list that the Bureau of Meteorology have assigned names to tropical cyclones from.[31] However the Bureau of Meteorology still operates the various TCWCs in Perth, Darwin & Brisbane. They monitor all tropical cyclones that form within the Australian region, including when tropical cyclones exist in either TCWC Jakarta's or Port Moresby's area of responsibility.

Stan Tatiana Uriah Yvette (unused) Alfred (unused) Blanche (unused) Caleb (unused)
Debbie (unused) Ernie (unused) Frances (unused) Greg (unused) Hilda (unused) Isobel (unused) Joyce (unused)

Season effects

Name Dates active Peak classification Sustained
wind speeds		 Pressure Land areas affected Damages
(AUD)		 Damages
(USD)		 Deaths Refs
04U 17 – 23 December Tropical low Not specified1006 hPa (29.71 inHg) Indonesia None None None
05U 21 December – 1 January Tropical low 55 km/h (35 mph)994 hPa (29.35 inHg) Northern Territory None None None
06U 27 – 29 December Tropical low Not specifiedNot specified None None None None
07U 19 – 25 January Tropical low Not specifiedNot specified None None None None
Stan 27 – 31 January Category 2 tropical cyclone 110 km/h (70 mph)975 hPa (28.79 inHg) Western Australia None None None
Uriah 8 – 14 February Category 2 tropical cyclone 95 km/h (60 mph)982 hPa (29.00 inHg) Cocos (Keeling) Islands None None None
Tatiana 10 – 13 February Category 2 tropical cyclone 95 km/h (60 mph)983 hPa (29.03 inHg) Solomon Islands, Queensland None None None
Season Aggregates
7 systems 17 December – Currently active 110 km/h (70 mph) 975 hPa (28.79 inHg) Unknown Unknown 0

See also

References

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 National Climate Centre (13 October 2014). "2015–16 Australian tropical cyclone season outlook: El Niño likely to decrease Australian cyclone numbers". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Retrieved 13 October 2014.
  2. 1 2 3 National Climate Centre (October 14, 2015). "2015–2016 South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on October 16, 2015. Retrieved October 16, 2015.
  3. 1 2 3 4 "Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook: El Niño expected to produce severe tropical storms in the Southwest Pacific" (Press release). New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. October 14, 2015. Archived from the original on October 16, 2015. Retrieved October 22, 2014.
  4. ↑ Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (12 October 2015). "Western Australia Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2015-16". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on 12 October 2015. Retrieved 12 October 2015.
  5. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region for the period until midnight WST Saturday 19 December 2015". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 16 December 2015. Retrieved 19 December 2015.
  6. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region for the period until midnight WST Sunday 20 December 2015". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 17 December 2015. Retrieved 19 December 2015.
  7. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area on 20th December 2015". Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC). 20 December 2015. Retrieved 20 December 2015. line feed character in |agency= at position 61 (help)
  8. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region for the period until midnight WST Thursday 24 December 2015". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 21 December 2015. Retrieved 23 December 2015.
  9. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region for the period until midnight WST Saturday 26 December 2015". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 26 December 2015. Retrieved 23 December 2015.
  10. ↑ "SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/231800Z-241800ZDEC2015//". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 23 December 2015. line feed character in |title= at position 53 (help)
  11. 1 2 3 4 "The Australian Tropical Cyclone Database" (CSV). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. A guide on how to read the database is available here.
  12. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 29 December 2015". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 26 December 2015. Retrieved 18 January 2016.
  13. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria for the period until midnight CS Thursday 31 December 2015". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 28 December 2015. Retrieved 18 January 2016.
  14. ↑ http://www.webcitation.org/6eqpVtLua
  15. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea for the period until midnight EST Saturday 13 February 2016". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. Retrieved 10 February 2016.
  16. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone 12P (Twelve) Warning Nr 001". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. February 10, 2016.
  17. ↑
  18. ↑
  19. 1 2 3 Queensland Regional Office (2015). Tropical Cyclone Raquel (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on September 11, 2015. Retrieved September 11, 2015.
  20. ↑ http://www.webcitation.org/6Zit0I5QY
  21. ↑ Young, Steve (August 31, 2015). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks: July 2015". Australian Severe Weather. Archived from the original on August 2, 2015. Retrieved August 2, 2015.
  22. ↑ Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (July 5, 2015). "Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: Australia: Eastern Region: July 5, 2015 12z". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on July 5, 2015. Retrieved September 11, 2015.
  23. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 29 December 2015". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 26 December 2015. Retrieved 18 January 2016.
  24. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 30 December 2015". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 27 December 2015. Retrieved 18 January 2016.
  25. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region for the period until midnight WST Thursday 31 December 2015". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 28 December 2015. Retrieved 18 January 2016.
  26. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region for the period until midnight WST Friday 1 January 2016". Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 29 December 2015. Retrieved 18 January 2016.
  27. ↑ http://www.webcitation.org/6ejCxQYdT
  28. ↑ http://www.webcitation.org/6ejCx9Fnr
  29. ↑ http://www.webcitation.org/6ejCwZ1Sc
  30. ↑ http://www.webcitation.org/6er4g8ogF
  31. 1 2 "Tropical Cyclone Operational plan for the South Pacific & Southeast indian Ocean, 2012 Edition" (PDF). WMO. Retrieved 2013-07-04.
  32. ↑ Gary Padgett (2008). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary October". Australian Severe Weather. Retrieved 2013-07-01.

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