World population estimates

Estimates of world population for various points in history have been a subject of study for many years. Many authoritative sources exist for historical population estimates (e.g. U.S. Census estimates of historical world population). This article lists many of these estimates. Estimates previous to the year 10,000 BCE can be made only from archaeological evidence.

The last human point Homo sapiens hit a dangerous low, coming close to extinction, was at approximately 70,000 people during the Toba catastrophe. The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign estimates human world population in between 1,000 and 10,000 couples.[1][2][3]

Later bottlenecks have appeared, with important local effects, but not global to the whole world population. For example, during the Last glacial period, population across Europe decreased and people had to gather in refugia. Nevertheless, population outside Europe was mostly unaffected.[4]

Table

The following table uses astronomical year numbering for dates, negative numbers corresponding roughly to the corresponding year BCE (i.e. -10000 = 10,001 BCE, etc.). The table starts counting around the Late Glacial Maximum period, in which ice retreated and humans started to spread into the northern hemisphere.

Year United States Census Bureau

(2014)[5]

 Population Reference Bureau

(1973–2014)[6]

 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs

(2013)[7]

 HYDE

(2007)[8]

 Maddison

(2003)[9]

 Tanton

(1994)[10]

 Biraben

(1980)[11]

 McEvedy &

Jones (1978)[12]

 Thomlinson

(1975)[13]

 Durand

(1974)[14]

 Clark

(1967)[15]

−100002,431,2144,000,0001,000,000 to 10,000,000
−90003,564,408
−80005,000,0005,136,4625,000,000 to 10,000,000
−70007,561,696
−600011,461,003
−500017,920,1725,000,0005,000,000 to 20,000,000
−400028,370,4307,000,000
−300044,819,89314,000,000
−200072,108,13327,000,000
−1000115,065,66650,000,000
−500100,000,000
−400162,000,000
−200231,000,000150,000,000
0300,000,000300,000,000188,239,090230,820,000150,000,000255,000,000170,000,000200,000,000270,000,000 to 330,000,000
14256,000,000
100195,062,192
200202,309,553256,000,000190,000,000
300205,316,554
350254,000,000
400208,909,834206,000,000190,000,000
500210,429,837206,000,000190,000,000
600212,642,769206,000,000200,000,000237,000,000
700225,835,012207,000,000210,000,000
800240,487,640224,000,000220,000,000261,000,000
900268,747,448226,000,000240,000,000
1000310,000,000295,040,195267,573,000254,000,000265,000,000275,000,000 to 345,000,000 280,000,000
1100352,606,919301,000,000320,000,000
1200450,000,000393,081,041400,000,000360,000,000384,000,000
1250400,000,000416,000,000350,000,000 to 450,000,000
1300392,403,532300,000,000432,000,000360,000,000400,000,000
1340443,000,000378,000,000
1400389,774,828374,000,000350,000,000
1500500,000,000461,367,658438,428,000460,000,000425,000,000440,000,000 to 540,000,000 427,000,000
1600553,956,117556,148,000579,000,000545,000,000498,000,000
1650500,000,000545,000,000500,000,000516,000,000
1700603,167,544603,490,000600,000,000679,000,000610,000,000600,000,000641,000,000
1750795,000,000791,000,000813,664,160770,000,000720,000,000700,000,000735,000,000 to 805,000,000 731,000,000
1800978,000,000989,818,305900,000,000954,000,000900,000,000900,000,000890,000,000
18201,041,834,000
18501,265,000,0001,262,000,0001,262,682,0741,241,000,0001,200,000,0001,200,000,000
18701,271,915,000
18751,325,000,000
19001,656,000,0001,650,000,0001,654,430,9791,563,622,0001,600,000,0001,633,000,0001,625,000,0001,600,000,0001,650,000,000 to 1,710,000,000 1,668,000,000
19101,750,000,0001,777,175,381
19131,791,091,000
19201,860,000,0001,912,110,9351,968,000,000
19252,000,000,000
19302,070,000,0002,091,893,6262,145,000,000
19402,300,000,0002,307,348,1072,340,000,000
19502,557,628,6542,516,000,0002,525,778,6692,544,876,9522,524,324,0002,400,000,0002,527,000,0002,500,000,0002,400,000,0002,499,000,000
19512,594,919,6572,572,850,917
19522,636,732,6312,619,292,068
19532,681,994,3862,665,865,392
19542,730,149,8842,713,172,027
19552,782,001,1542,761,650,9812,766,471,000
19562,835,182,2932,811,572,031
19572,891,211,7932,863,042,795
19582,947,979,2872,916,030,167
19593,000,544,3252,970,395,814
19603,042,828,3803,026,002,9423,042,794,8253,038,795,000
19613,083,799,9683,082,830,266
19623,139,919,0513,141,071,5313,132,691,0003,036,000,000
19633,209,631,8953,201,178,277
19643,280,981,8623,263,738,832
19653,350,186,1153,329,122,4793,328,882,000
19663,420,416,4983,397,475,2473,397,631,0003,288,000,000
19673,490,051,1633,468,521,724
19683,562,007,5033,541,674,891
19693,636,825,8003,616,108,749
19703,712,338,7083,691,172,6163,709,837,1473,685,058,0003,637,000,0003,600,000,0003,600,000,000 to 3,700,000,000
19713,789,941,2253,766,754,345
19723,866,158,4043,842,873,611
19733,941,664,9713,919,182,3323,923,325,6293,916,489,000
19744,016,159,5863,995,304,922
19754,088,621,0624,071,020,4344,065,408,0003,900,000,0004,000,000,000
19764,159,718,1994,146,135,850
19774,231,619,2364,220,816,737
19784,303,647,7364,295,664,825
19794,378,565,5894,371,527,871
19804,450,929,7614,449,048,7984,460,709,9754,435,598,000
19814,533,928,5184,528,234,634
19824,614,015,8534,608,962,418
19834,695,112,9994,691,559,840
19844,773,874,9624,776,392,828
19854,855,692,1314,863,601,5174,830,813,0005,000,000,000
19864,939,715,0934,953,376,710
19875,026,262,6675,045,315,871
19885,113,554,7415,138,214,688
19895,200,376,3545,230,452,409
19905,287,869,2285,320,816,6675,307,597,2685,259,502,000
19915,370,833,5205,408,908,724
19925,455,716,1835,494,899,570
19935,538,201,9675,578,865,109
19945,618,942,4385,661,086,346
19955,699,768,3925,760,000,0005,741,822,4125,677,287,000
19965,780,312,5115,821,016,750
19975,859,124,8175,840,000,0005,898,688,337
19985,936,610,6925,975,303,6575,914,930,000
19996,013,679,3546,051,478,0105,997,967,000
20006,090,319,3996,067,000,0006,127,700,4286,144,834,3076,071,144,0005,750,000,000
20016,167,064,3996,204,147,0266,149,006,000
20026,243,867,8516,215,000,0006,280,853,817
20036,320,371,1756,314,000,0006,357,991,749
20046,397,322,9226,396,000,0006,435,705,595
20056,474,229,1446,477,000,0006,514,094,605
20066,552,104,4986,555,000,0006,593,227,977
20076,630,764,0076,625,000,0006,673,105,937
20086,709,620,6056,705,000,0006,753,649,228
20096,788,203,5786,809,972,0006,834,721,933
20106,866,054,2816,892,319,0006,916,183,482
20116,943,437,4386,986,951,0006,997,998,760
20127,020,760,2257,057,075,0007,080,072,417
20137,098,495,2317,136,796,0007,162,119,434
20147,176,023,0557,238,184,0007,243,784,121
20157,253,260,1127,324,782,225
20167,330,119,6397,404,976,783
20177,406,521,2167,484,325,476
20187,482,239,0287,562,760,049
20197,557,130,0747,640,244,883
20207,631,071,6907,716,749,0428,000,000,000
20217,704,115,6887,792,209,448
20227,776,293,3437,866,579,808
20237,847,482,2867,939,876,856
20247,917,600,1748,012,143,175
20257,986,584,2688,000,000,0008,083,412,759
20268,054,512,4578,153,677,369
20278,121,441,0568,222,926,554
20288,187,308,5248,291,192,823
20298,252,088,7878,358,519,176
20308,315,758,3098,444,000,0008,424,937,474
20318,378,365,2178,490,455,587
20328,439,982,4358,555,067,634
20338,500,602,3368,618,773,635
20348,560,208,2958,681,569,042
20358,618,767,7518,743,446,952
20368,676,328,4198,804,405,816
20378,732,942,4848,864,436,768
20388,788,587,1018,923,514,713
20398,843,232,6738,981,607,338
20408,896,844,5799,038,687,151
20418,949,450,3769,094,743,549
20429,001,084,6019,149,768,513
20439,051,710,6889,203,740,560
20449,101,286,5739,256,636,273
20459,149,777,8229,308,438,178
20469,197,214,2839,359,139,840
20479,243,623,7559,408,741,189
20489,288,977,0199,457,240,781
20499,333,247,7059,504,640,288
20509,376,416,9759,683,000,0009,550,944,891
20519,596,160,310
20529,640,298,273
20539,683,379,446
20549,725,429,894
20559,766,475,107
20569,806,530,407
20579,845,614,720
20589,883,762,213
20599,921,012,280
20609,957,398,588
20619,992,942,091
206210,027,657,203
206310,061,562,395
206410,094,674,166
206510,127,006,921
206610,158,578,935
206710,189,401,603
206810,219,473,319
206910,248,786,569
207010,277,339,229
207110,305,145,554
207210,332,223,181
207310,358,578,322
207410,384,216,409
207510,409,149,043
207610,433,384,559
207710,456,948,830
207810,479,892,851
207910,502,280,113
208010,524,161,005
208110,545,552,880
208210,566,460,628
208310,586,904,845
208410,606,903,863
208510,626,467,422
208610,645,602,142
208710,664,297,922
208810,682,524,227
208910,700,237,846
209010,717,401,021
209110,733,987,343
209210,749,979,712
209310,765,365,331
209410,780,129,870
209510,794,252,256
209610,807,702,741
209710,820,441,927
209810,832,420,339
209910,843,578,834
210010,853,848,570
22008,250,000,000, 000,*

* Note: McEvedy & Jones estimated figures for 2200 shown above, but estimate may be unreliable.

See also

References

  1. ↑ Stanley H. Ambrose (1998). "Late Pleistocene human population bottlenecks, volcanic winter, and differentiation of modern humans". Journal of Human Evolution 34 (6): 623–651. doi:10.1006/jhev.1998.0219. PMID 9650103.
  2. ↑ Ambrose, Stanley H. (2005). "Volcanic Winter, and Differentiation of Modern Humans". Bradshaw Foundation. Retrieved 2006-04-08.
  3. ↑ Robock, A., C.M. Ammann, L. Oman, D. Shindell, S. Levis, and G. Stenchikov (2009). "Did the Toba volcanic eruption of ~74k BP produce widespread glaciation?". Journal of Geophysical Research 114 (D10): D10107. Bibcode:2009JGRD..11410107R. doi:10.1029/2008JD011652.
  4. ↑ Pala et al. 2012 Mitochondrial DNA signals of late glacial recolonization of Europe from near eastern refugia. http://europepmc.org/abstract/MED/22560092/reload=0;jsessionid=Ex1l76DwTiCwb3huDcM9.6
  5. ↑ Data from U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base Retrieved on June 10, 2014
  6. ↑ Data from Population Reference Bureau.
    2014 estimate: (a) Carl Haub, 2014, "2014 World Population Data Sheet".
    2013 estimate: (b) Carl Haub, 2013, "2013 World Population Data Sheet".
    2012 estimate: (c) Carl Haub, 2012, "2012 World Population Data Sheet".
    2011 estimate: (d) Carl Haub, 2011, "2011 World Population Data Sheet".
    2010 estimate: (e) Carl Haub, 2010, "2010 World Population Data Sheet".
    2009 estimate: (f) Carl Haub, 2009, "2009 World Population Data Sheet".
    2008 estimate: (g) Carl Haub, 2008, "2008 World Population Data Sheet".
    2007 estimate: (h) Carl Haub, 2007, "2007 World Population Data Sheet".
    2006 estimate: (i) Carl Haub, 2006, "2006 World Population Data Sheet".
    2005 estimate: (j) Carl Haub, 2005, "2005 World Population Data Sheet".
    2004 estimate: (k) Carl Haub, 2004, "2004 World Population Data Sheet".
    2003 estimate: (l) Carl Haub, 2003, "2003 World Population Data Sheet".
    2002 estimate: (m) Carl Haub, 2002, "2002 World Population Data Sheet".
    2000 estimate: (n) 2000, "9 Billion World Population by 2050".
    1997 estimate: (o) 1997, "Studying Populations".
    Estimates for 1995 and prior: (p) Carl Haub, 1995, "How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?" Population Today, Vol. 23 (no. 2), pp. 5–6.
  7. ↑ Data from United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
    1950–2100 estimates (only medium variants shown): (a) World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
    Estimates prior to 1950: (b) "The World at Six Billion", 1999.
    Estimates from 1950 to 2100: (c) "Population of the entire world, yearly, 1950 - 2100", 2013.
  8. ↑ Data from History Database of the Global Environment. K. Klein Goldewijk and G. van Drecht, "HYDE 3.1: Current and historical population and land cover", in Eds. A. F. Bouwman, T. Kram, and K. Klein Goldewijk, "Integrated modelling of global environmental change. An overview of IMAGE 2.4", Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
  9. ↑ Angus Maddison, 2003, The World Economy: Historical Statistics, Vol. 2, OECD, Paris, ISBN 92-64-10412-7.
  10. ↑ John H. Tanton, 1994, "End of the Migration Epoch? Time For a New Paradigm", The Social Contract, Vol. 4 (no 3), pp. 162–173.
  11. ↑ Slightly updated data from original paper in French: (a) Jean-Noël Biraben, 1980, "An Essay Concerning Mankind's Evolution", Population, Selected Papers, Vol. 4, pp. 1–13. Original paper in French: (b) Jean-Noël Biraben, 1979, "Essai sur l'évolution du nombre des hommes", Population, Vol. 34 (no. 1), pp. 13–25.
  12. ↑ Colin McEvedy and Richard Jones, 1978, Atlas of World Population History, Facts on File, New York, ISBN 0-7139-1031-3.
  13. ↑ Ralph Thomlinson, 1975, Demographic Problems: Controversy over population control, 2nd Ed., Dickenson Publishing Company, Ecino, CA, ISBN 0-8221-0166-1.
  14. ↑ John D. Durand, 1974, "Historical Estimates of World Population: An Evaluation", University of Pennsylvania, Population Center, Analytical and Technical Reports, Number 10.
  15. ↑ Colin Clark, 1967, Population Growth and Land Use, St. Martin's Press, New York, ISBN 0-333-01126-0.

Further reading

External links