Victorian state election, 2010

Victorian state election, 2010
Victoria (Australia)
27 November 2010
All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly
45 seats were needed for a majority
All 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council
  First party Second party
 
Leader Ted Baillieu John Brumby
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor
Leader since 8 May 2006 30 July 2007
Leader's seat Hawthorn Broadmeadows
Last election 32 seats 55 seats
Seats won 45 seats 43 seats
Seat change Increase13 Decrease12
Percentage 51.58% 48.42%
Swing Increase5.96 Decrease5.96
Premier before election

John Brumby
Labor

 Premier after election

Ted Baillieu
Liberal/National coalition

The 2010 Victorian state election was held on 27 November to elect members to all 88 Legislative Assembly seats and all 40 Legislative Council seats in the Parliament of Victoria. The incumbent centre-left Australian Labor Party government, led by John Brumby, was defeated by the centre-right Liberal/National Coalition opposition, led by Ted Baillieu. The election gave the Coalition a one-seat majority in both houses of parliament.

Victoria has compulsory voting and uses a mandatory preferential ballot in single-member seats for elections to the Legislative Assembly. By contrast, the single transferable vote in multi-member districts is used for elections to the Legislative Council. The election was conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC).

Background

At the 1999 election, the Labor Party led by Steve Bracks was able to form a minority government with the parliamentary support of 3 Independents, displacing the incumbent Jeff Kennett Liberal/National Coalition government. Labor was returned with a majority government after a landslide win at the 2002 election. Labor was elected for a third term at the 2006 election with a substantial but reduced majority. Labor won 55 of the 88 seats, a decrease of 7, and 54.4 percent of the two-party preferred vote, a decrease of 3.4 percent. Brumby replaced Bracks as Labor leader and Premier of Victoria in 2007.

Political changes

The previous elections took place on Saturday, 25 November 2006. At the 2006 election, the Labor Party won 55 of the 88 seats, the Liberal Party won 23, the National Party won 9, and there was 1 Independent. Since that date a number of political changes took place.

Both Premier Bracks and Deputy Premier John Thwaites resigned on 27 July 2007.

By-elections

Between the 2006 and 2010 elections, four by-elections took place. In Bracks' seat of Williamstown and Thwaites' seat of Albert Park in 2007, former minister Andre Haermeyer's seat of Kororoit in 2008, and former minister Lynne Kosky's seat of Altona in 2010. All four seats were retained by Labor. Labor MP Craig Langdon resigned from his seat of Ivanhoe in August 2010, however the by-election writ was discharged by the Parliamentary Speaker due to the proximity of the state election coupled with the cost of holding a by-election.[1]

Campaign

Adam Bandt, Brian Walters and Bob Brown of the Greens during the election campaign

The Liberal and National Parties contested the election as a Coalition, which they had not done since the previous agreement lapsed in 2000.[2] The Liberal Party departed from tradition and gave their preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens, thereby decreasing the chances of the Greens winning up to four inner city seats from Labor.[3]

The Coalition launched their campaign on 14 November 2010 at the Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre in the electoral district of Melbourne, with the slogan: "Fix the problems. Build the future." Labor launched their campaign on 16 November 2010 in the electoral district of Bendigo East, using the slogan: "For the times ahead." The Greens ran with the slogan "This time, I'm voting Green".

Issues

The Coalition campaigned heavily against the Brumby Government's new Myki ticketing system, which had been delivered at triple the projected cost and years behind schedule, as well as its construction of an expensive desalination plant that many claimed was unnecessary. Other issues included health, education, and law and order. Ted Baillieu promised to restore the budget to surplus, employ more nurses and police, make Victorian teachers the highest paid in the country, and abolish suspended sentences which were seen as out of touch with community standards.

Retiring MPs

Labor

Liberal

National

Results

Legislative Assembly

Lower house seat outcome of the Victorian 2010 election

Victorian state election, 27 November 2010[4][5]
Legislative Assembly
<< 2006 — 2014 >>

Enrolled voters 3,582,232
Votes cast 3,329,865 Turnout 92.96 +0.23
Informal votes 165,134 Informal 4.96 +0.40
Summary of votes by party
Party Primary votes % Swing Seats Change
  Liberal 1,203,654 38.03 +3.59 35 +12
  Labor 1,147,348 36.25 –6.81 43 –12
  Greens 354,697 11.21 +1.17 0 ±0
  National 213,492 6.75 +1.58 10 +1
  Family First 72,354 2.29 –2.00 0 ±0
  Country Alliance 42,938 1.36 +1.36 0 ±0
  Democratic Labor 28,176 0.89 +0.89 0 ±0
  Sex Party 17,252 0.55 +0.55 0 ±0
  Socialist Alliance 1,787 0.06 +0.02 0 ±0
  Christian Democrats 636 0.02 +0.02 0 ±0
  Other 82,395 2.60 +0.31 0 –1
Total 3,164,729     88  
Two-party-preferred
  Liberal/National 1,633,312 51.58 +5.97
  Labor 1,533,225 48.42 –5.97

On 30 November, Brumby announced that he was standing down as Labor leader. The new Liberal/National government was sworn in on 2 December 2010,[6] and Daniel Andrews was elected Labor leader on 3 December.[7]

Legislative Council

Victorian state election, 27 November 2010[4]
Legislative Council
<< 2006 — 2014 >>

Enrolled voters 3,582,232
Votes cast 3,328,861 Turnout 92.93 +0.20
Informal votes 112,475 Informal 3.37 −0.91
Summary of votes by party
Party Primary votes % Swing Seats Change
  Labor 1,137,461 35.36 −6.09 16 –3
  Liberal (metropolitan) 792,702 24.65 +3.35 12 +3
  Liberal/National 595,330 18.51 +0.83    
    Liberal (country) 6 ±0
    National 3 +1
  Greens 386,172 12.01 +1.43 3 ±0
  Family First 91,982 2.86 −0.99 0 ±0
  Democratic Labor 75,080 2.33 +0.36 0 −1
  Sex Party 61,542 1.91 +1.91 0 ±0
  Country Alliance 53,149 1.65 +1.20 0 ±0
  Christian Democrats 12,322 0.38 +0.18 0 ±0
  Other 10,646 0.33 0 ±0
Total 3,216,386     40  

In the 40-member upper house where all members are up for re-election every term, the Coalition won a majority of 21 seats, with 16 seats won by Labor and 3 won by the Greens.[8][9]

Seats changing hands

Seat Pre-2010 Swing Post-2010
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Bentleigh   Labor Rob Hudson 6.3 -7.1 0.8 Elizabeth Miller Liberal  
Burwood   Labor Bob Stensholt 3.7 -9.6 5.9 Graham Watt Liberal  
Carrum   Labor Jenny Lindell 6.7 -8.7 2.0 Donna Bauer Liberal  
Forest Hill   Labor Kirstie Marshall 0.8 -3.9 3.2 Neil Angus Liberal  
Frankston   Labor Alistair Harkness 3.2 -5.3 2.1 Geoff Shaw Liberal  
Gembrook   Labor Tammy Lobato 0.7 -7.5 6.8 Brad Battin Liberal  
Gippsland East   Independent Craig Ingram 9.1 -21.1 12.0 Tim Bull National  
Mitcham   Labor Tony Robinson 2.0 -4.7 2.8 Dee Ryall Liberal  
Mordialloc   Labor Janice Munt 3.5 -5.6 2.1 Lorraine Wreford Liberal  
Mount Waverley   Labor Maxine Morand 0.3 -7.8 7.4 Michael Gidley Liberal  
Prahran   Labor Tony Lupton 3.6 -7.8 4.3 Clem Newton-Brown Liberal  
Seymour   Labor Ben Hardman 6.7 -7.9 1.2 Cindy McLeish Liberal  
South Barwon   Labor Michael Crutchfield 4.1 -6.2 3.9 Andrew Katos Liberal  

In 2006, the final Gippsland East 2PP count included Independent and Liberal, however in 2010 the final 2PP count included Independent and Nationals

Key dates

Terms are fixed at four years. Elections occur in line with the fixed term provisions laid out in the Electoral Act 2002.[10]

Key dates for the election were:[11]

Polling

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is performed via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1000 electors, with the declared margin of error at ±3 percent.

 Better Premier ratings^
Labor
Brumby		 Liberal
Baillieu
2010 election – –
23 – 25 Nov 2010 48% 38%
9 – 11 Nov 2010 50% 36%
Sep – Oct 2010 49% 31%
Jul – Aug 2010 52% 27%
May – Jun 2010 47% 31%
Mar – Apr 2010 49% 29%
Jan – Feb 2010 51% 29%
Nov – Dec 2009 54% 26%
Sep – Oct 2009 52% 27%
Jul – Aug 2009 52% 27%
May – Jun 2009 54% 21%
Jan – Feb 2009 54% 22%
Nov – Dec 2008 49% 27%
Sep – Oct 2008 45% 27%
Jul – Aug 2008 48% 26%
May – Jun 2008 51% 28%
Mar – Apr 2008 49% 23%
Jan – Feb 2008 48% 25%
Nov – Dec 2007 51% 22%
Sep – Oct 2007 51% 25%
2006 election – –
22 – 23 Nov 2006 53%1 30%
Polling conducted by Newspoll
and published in The Australian.
1 Steve Bracks.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.
Legislative Assembly (lower house) opinion polling
Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB NAT GRN OTH ALP L/NP
2010 election 36.3% 38.0% 6.7% 11.2% 7.8% 48.4% 51.6%
23 – 25 Nov 2010 33% 40% 5% 15% 7% 48.9% 51.1%
9 – 11 Nov 2010 37% 39% 5% 14% 5% 51% 49%
Sep – Oct 2010 35% 36% 4% 19% 6% 52% 48%
Jul – Aug 2010 38% 32% 4% 17% 9% 55% 45%
May – Jun 2010 34% 36% 4% 18% 8% 51% 49%
Mar – Apr 2010 37% 38% 3% 14% 8% 52% 48%
Jan – Feb 2010 39% 36% 3% 14% 8% 54% 46%
Nov – Dec 2009 41% 32% 3% 14% 10% 57% 43%
Sep – Oct 2009 43% 32% 3% 15% 7% 57% 43%
Jul – Aug 2009 43% 35% 2% 12% 8% 56% 44%
May – Jun 2009 42% 34% 3% 14% 7% 56% 44%
Jan – Feb 2009 46% 31% 2% 15% 6% 60% 40%
Nov – Dec 2008 45% 34% 3% 13% 5% 57% 43%
Sep – Oct 2008 37% 37% 4% 15% 7% 51% 49%
Jul – Aug 2008 41% 34% 4% 12% 9% 54% 46%
May – Jun 2008 41% 35% 3% 14% 7% 55% 45%
Mar – Apr 2008 44% 33% 3% 12% 8% 58% 42%
Jan – Feb 2008 43% 34% 3% 12% 8% 56% 44%
Nov – Dec 2007 51% 31% 3% 9% 6% 60% 40%
Sep – Oct 2007 49% 36% 4% 6% 5% 56% 44%
2006 election 43.1% 34.4% 5.2% 10.0% 7.3% 54.4% 45.6%
22 – 23 Nov 2006 45% 32% 5% 9% 9% 56% 44%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.


Sky News exit polls in marginal seats recorded a Coalition 54-46 Labor result.[12]

Newspaper endorsements

Dailies   Sundays
Newspaper Endorsement Newspaper Endorsement
The Age Labor[13] The Sunday Age Labor[14]
The Australian Labor[15] The Weekend Australian
The Australian Financial Review Labor[16]
The Herald Sun Labor[17] Sunday Herald Sun Labor[18]

References

  1. ↑ Speaker decides against Ivanhoe by-election, ABC News, 14 September 2010.
  2. ↑ Best, Catherine (2008-02-11). "Coalition reunites in Victoria". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 2010-03-14.
  3. ↑ "Greens still hopeful of winning seats". Abc.net.au. 1980-10-02. Retrieved 2012-02-01.
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 "State Election 2010 results". Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 11 December 2010.
  5. ↑ "Statistical overview of the election" (PDF). Report to Parliament on the 2010 Victorian State election. Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 1 January 2012.
  6. ↑ "Baillieu sworn in as Premier". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 2012-02-01.
  7. ↑ 5 Minutes 10 Minutes. "Daniel Andrews new Victorian Labor leader". Theaustralian.com.au. Retrieved 2012-02-01.
  8. ↑ "Upper house summary". ABC. Retrieved 2012-02-01.
  9. ↑ "Coalition wins Upper House majority". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 14 December 2010.
  10. ↑ "Section 63, Electoral Act 2002". Retrieved 2010-09-06.
  11. ↑ "2010 Victorian state election information: VEC". Vec.vic.gov.au. 2010-08-20. Retrieved 2010-11-28.
  12. ↑ "'Swing is on' as voters turn against Labor: ABC News 27 November 2010". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 2010-11-28.
  13. ↑ "Leaders have delivered a choice between clear alternatives". Melbourne: The Age. 26 November 2010. Retrieved 2010-11-27.
  14. ↑ "Labor? Liberal? What difference would it make?". Melbourne: The Sunday Age. 21 November 2010. Retrieved 2010-11-27.
  15. ↑ "The compelling case for a vote against complacency". The Australian. 26 November 2010. Retrieved 2010-11-27.
  16. ↑ "Brumby earns another term". The Australian Financial Review. 26 November 2010. Retrieved 2010-11-27.
  17. ↑ "A tight contest between clones". The Herald Sun. 26 November 2010. Retrieved 2010-11-27.
  18. ↑ "Victoria deserves strong leadership from next state government". Sunday Herald Sun. 21 November 2010. Retrieved 2010-11-27.