United States presidential election in Tennessee, 2008

United States presidential election in Tennessee, 2008
Tennessee
November 4, 2008
 
Nominee John McCain Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Arizona Illinois
Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,479,178 1,087,437
Percentage 56.85% 41.79%

County Results
  Obama—60-70%
  Obama—50-60%
  Obama—<50%
  McCain—50-60%
  McCain—60-70%
  McCain—70-80%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Tennessee took place on November 4, 2008 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Tennessee was won by Republican nominee John McCain by 15.06 percentage points. Prior to the election, 17 news organizations considered Tennessee a win for McCain. Early polling in Tennessee gave a solid edge to McCain over Democrat Barack Obama by up to a 20-point margin. The expected "landslide" by McCain in Tennessee meant there was little campaigning there. Most news organizations immediately called Tennessee for McCain as soon as all the polls in the state closed. McCain even improved upon George W. Bush's performance in 2004, a much better year nationally for the Republicans.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

Elections in Tennessee

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

  1. D.C. Political Report: Republican[1]
  2. Cook Political Report: Solid Republican[2]
  3. Takeaway: Solid McCain[3]
  4. Election Projection: Solid McCain[4]
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Strong Republican[5]
  6. Washington Post: Solid McCain[6]
  7. Politico: Solid McCain[7]
  8. Real Clear Politics: Solid McCain[8]
  9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid McCain[6]
  10. CQ Politics: Safe Republican[9]
  11. New York Times: Solid Republican[10]
  12. CNN: Safe Republican[11]
  13. NPR: Solid McCain[6]
  14. MSNBC: Solid McCain[6]
  15. Fox News: Republican[12]
  16. Associated Press: Republican[13]
  17. Rasmussen Reports: Safe Republican[14]

Polling

McCain won every single pre-election poll, and each by a double digit margin of victory. The final 3 polls averaged McCain leading 55% to 40%.[15]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $2,941,065 in the state. Barack Obama raised $3,481,341.[16]

Advertising and visits

Obama spent $518,659. The Republican ticket spent just $3,526.[17] Obama visited the state once, going to Nashville. McCain visited the state twice, visiting Nashville and Blountville.[18]

Analysis

Despite narrowly voting for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 when native son Al Gore was on the ticket as Vice President, the state has steadily been trending Republican since then. George W. Bush narrowly carried the state in 2000 over Tennessee native Gore and easily won in 2004 over John Kerry. The state was one of five states that swung even more Republican in 2008 with John McCain soundly defeating Barack Obama in the Volunteer State.

McCain won both East Tennessee and Middle Tennessee by landslide margins. Historically, East Tennessee, which is a part of Appalachia, has voted Republican ever since the party was founded; however, Middle Tennessee has Democratic roots based on liberal economic policies, most famously Franklin D. Roosevelt's Tennessee Valley Authority. Middle Tennessee voted strongly for Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, but Middle Tennessee native Al Gore narrowly lost the region in 2000—a loss that ultimately cost him Tennessee, and the election. In contrast, it was one of the few regions in the country which voted more Republican than in 2004.[19] This is largely due to a growing social conservative trend in the region, particularly in the Nashville suburbs; some of the most politically active churches in the state are located there.

On the other hand, Barack Obama did improve relatively well upon John Kerry's performances in the traditionally Democratic cities of Nashville and Memphis. In the former, support amongst progressive whites led to a 3-2 victory for Obama in Davidson County.[19] In Memphis, heavy African American turnout ensured him the largest margin in the state in Shelby County, although far from enough to outweigh his losses everywhere else in the state. McCain, however, carried the third- and fourth- most populated cities of Chattanooga in Hamilton County as well as Knoxville in Knox County.

During the same election, at the state level, Republicans picked up four seats in the Tennessee House of Representatives and three seats in the Tennessee Senate to obtain control of both chambers of the state legislature for the first time since Reconstruction.

Results

United States presidential election in Tennessee, 2008[20]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 1,479,178 56.85% 11
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 1,087,437 41.79% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 11,560 0.44% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 8,547 0.33% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 8,191 0.31% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 2,499 0.10% 0
Write-ins Write-ins Write-ins 2,333 0.09% 0
Socialist Brian Moore Stewart Alexander 1,326 0.05% 0
Boston Tea Charles Jay Thomas Knapp 1,011 0.04% 0
Totals 2,601,982 100.00% 11
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 55.5%

Results breakdown

By county

County Obama# Obama% McCain# McCain%
ANDERSON 11,396 36.1% 19,675 62.3%
BEDFORD 5,027 32.4% 10,217 65.9%
BENTON 2,645 40.8% 3,696 57.0%
BLEDSOE 1,517 31.7% 3,166 66.2%
BLOUNT 15,253 29.5% 35,571 68.9%
BRADLEY 9,357 24.5% 28,333 74.2%
CAMPBELL 3,867 30.6% 8,535 67.6%
CANNON 2,011 36.9% 3,322 60.9%
CARROLL 3,980 34.2% 7,455 64.0%
CARTER 5,587 25.7% 15,852 72.8%
CHEATHAM 5,498 33.5% 10,702 65.8%
CHESTER 1,797 27.8% 4,587 71.0%
CLAIBORNE 3,078 29.5% 7,175 68.9%
CLAY 1,248 41.7% 1,676 56.0%
COCKE 3,340 26.7% 8,945 71.7%
COFFEE 7,132 34.4% 13,250 63.7%
CROCKETT 1,967 32.6% 3,994 66.2%
CUMBERLAND 7,889 30.7% 17,436 67.8%
DAVIDSON 158,423 59.7% 102,915 38.8%
DECATUR 1,566 32.9% 3,101 65.1%
DEKALB 2,832 40.2% 4,085 57.8%
DICKSON 7,506 38.5% 11,677 59.8%
DYER 4,411 30.5% 9,859 68.2%
FAYETTE 6,892 35.8% 12,173 63.2%
FENTRESS 1,831 27.2% 4,789 71.1%
FRANKLIN 6,613 37.9% 10,539 60.5%
GIBSON 7,406 34.8% 13,516 63.6%
GILES 4,614 39.5% 6,902 59.0%
GRAINGER 2,066 27.5% 5,297 70.6%
GREENE 7,110 28.8% 17,151 69.5%
GRUNDY 1,971 42.6% 2,563 55.3%
HAMBLEN 6,807 30.0% 15,508 68.4%
HAMILTON 64,246 43.4% 81,702 55.2%
HANCOCK 604 27.0% 1,588 70.9%
HARDEMAN 5,919 52.7% 5,225 46.5%
HARDIN 2,794 27.8% 7,077 70.5%
HAWKINS 5,930 28.2% 14,756 70.1%
HAYWOOD 4,893 60.3% 3,165 39.0%
HENDERSON 3,021 27.9% 7,669 70.8%
HENRY 5,153 38.0% 8,182 60.4%
HICKMAN 3,563 41.9% 4,784 56.4%
HOUSTON 1,678 50.0% 1,608 47.9%
HUMPHREYS 3,600 47.5% 3,818 50.4%
JACKSON 2,224 49.4% 2,185 48.5%
JEFFERSON 5,178 47.9% 13,092 70.6%
JOHNSON 1,837 27.7% 4,621 70.1%
KNOX 70,215 37.7% 113,015 60.7%
LAKE 1,024 45.8% 1,175 52.5%
LAUDERDALE 4,322 46.3% 4,933 52.8%
LAWRENCE 5,161 32.2% 10,566 66.0%
LEWIS 1,804 37.3% 2,951 61.0%
LINCOLN 3,695 28.1% 9,231 70.3%
LOUDON 6,058 27.3% 15,815 71.3%
MACON 2,060 28.0% 5,145 69.9%
MADISON 20,209 46.1% 23,290 53.1%
MARION 4,506 39.4% 6,746 59.0%
MARSHALL 4,320 38.3% 6,755 59.8%
MAURY 13,058 38.7% 20,288 60.1%
MCMINN 5,539 29.9% 12,984 70.1%
MCNAIRY 3,131 30.6% 7,134 69.4%
MEIGS 1,372 32.4% 2,797 66.0%
MONROE 5,053 30.1% 11,484 68.5%
MONTGOMERY 25,716 45.5% 30,175 53.3%
MOORE 881 29.8% 2,010 68.1%
MORGAN 1,969 28.9% 4,717 69.1%
OBION 4,308 32.2% 8,873 66.3%
OVERTON 3,419 42.3% 4,497 55.6%
PERRY 1,329 44.3% 1,596 53.2%
PICKETT 854 32.0% 1,786 66.9%
POLK 2,124 32.7% 4,267 65.6%
PUTNAM 9,739 35.7% 17,101 62.6%
RHEA 2,907 26.2% 8,042 72.4%
ROANE 7,224 31.0% 15,658 67.3%
ROBERTSON 9,318 33.7% 17,903 64.8%
RUTHERFORD 40,460 39.7% 59,892 58.8%
SCOTT 1,720 25.4% 4,931 72.7%
SEQUATCHIE 1,717 31.7% 3,610 66.4%
SEVIER 8,604 25.3% 24,922 73.4%
SHELBY 256,297 63.4% 145,458 36.0%
SMITH 2,992 38.7% 4,563 58.9%
STEWART 2,470 44.9% 2,956 53.7%
SULLIVAN 18,354 28.7% 44,808 70.0%
SUMNER 21,487 31.9% 44,949 66.7%
TIPTON 7,931 31.5% 17,165 67.8%
TROUSDALE 1,475 45.5% 1,688 52.1%
UNICOI 2,107 29.2% 5,011 69.4%
UNION 1,829 28.6% 4,467 69.8%
VAN BUREN 849 38.3% 1,294 58.7%
WARREN 5,515 38.5% 8,562 59.5%
WASHINGTON 15,941 32.5% 32,341 66.0%
WAYNE 1,355 24.5% 4,076 73.7%
WEAKLEY 4,596 33.6% 8,855 64.7%
WHITE 3,372 35.0% 6,103 63.3%
WILLIAMSON 27,886 29.7% 64,858 69.1%
WILSON 15,886 31.1% 34,595 67.6%

By congressional district

John McCain swept the state and carried seven of the state's nine congressional districts, including three districts held by Democrats. Barack Obama carried the state's two congressional districts anchored by the two largest cities of Memphis and Nashville.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 69.77% 28.77% David Davis (110th Congress)
Phil Roe (111th Congress)
2nd 64.21% 34.28% John J. Duncan, Jr.
3rd 61.87% 36.86% Zach Wamp
4th 64.06% 34.25% Lincoln Davis
5th 42.94% 55.85% Jim Cooper
6th 61.87% 36.59% Bart Gordon
7th 64.76% 34.29% Marsha Blackburn
8th 56.01% 42.73% John S. Tanner
9th 22.51% 76.92% Steve Cohen

Electors

Technically the voters of Tennessee cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Tennessee is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[21] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:

  1. Sara Sellers
  2. Jim Haslam
  3. Wayne Cropp
  4. Lisa Wheeler
  5. Beth Campbell
  6. Albert McCall
  7. Shirley Curry
  8. Marilucile Counce
  9. Colin Richmond
  10. Winfield Dunn
  11. Chrystal Horn

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Predictions.html
  2. ↑ http://www.cookpolitical.com/presidential#belowMap
  3. ↑ http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/
  4. ↑ http://www.electionprojection.com/2008elections/president08.shtml
  5. ↑ http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Dec31.html
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 Based on Takeaway
  7. ↑ http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html
  8. ↑ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5
  9. ↑ http://innovation.cq.com/prezMap08/
  10. ↑ The New York Times http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/key-states/map.html?scp=1&sq=electoral%20college%20map&st=cse. Retrieved May 26, 2010. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  11. ↑ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  12. ↑ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  13. ↑ http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/campaign_plus/roadto270/
  14. ↑ http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update
  15. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=47
  16. ↑ http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/MapAppState.do?stateName=TN&cand_id=P00000001
  17. ↑ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  18. ↑ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 "Election Results 2008". New York Times. Retrieved 2009-05-17.
  20. ↑ "Official General Election Results". The Green Papers. Retrieved 2008-12-12.
  21. ↑ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Retrieved 2008-11-01.

See also