United States presidential election in Arizona, 2008

United States presidential election in Arizona, 2008
Arizona
November 4, 2008
 
Nominee John McCain Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Arizona Illinois
Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,230,111 1,034,707
Percentage 53.39% 44.91%

County results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Arizona took place on November 4, 2008 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Arizona was won by Republican nominee and favorite son John McCain with an 8.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 16 of 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. It was the home state of John McCain and has only been carried by a Democrat once since 1948. However, polls taken near Election Day in 2008 showed Democrat Barack Obama closer than expected to winning the state.[1] McCain carried all but four of the state's 15 counties.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

  1. D.C. Political Report: Republican[2]
  2. Cook Political Report: Leaning Republican[3]
  3. Takeaway: Leaning McCain[4]
  4. Election Projection: Leaning McCain[5]
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Leaning Republican[6]
  6. Washington Post: Leaning McCain[7]
  7. Politico: Solid McCain[8]
  8. Real Clear Politics: Toss Up[9]
  9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid McCain[7]
  10. CQ Politics: Leaning Republican[10]
  11. New York Times: Solid Republican[11]
  12. CNN: Leaning Republican[12]
  13. NPR: Leaning McCain[7]
  14. MSNBC: Leaning McCain[7]
  15. Fox News: Republican[13]
  16. Associated Press: Republican[14]
  17. Rasmussen Reports: Safe Republican[15]

Polling

Opinion polls taken from February through to October 2008 showed McCain leading Obama by margins of between 1% and 21%. The final RealClearPolitics average gave the state an average of 53.8% for McCain, compared to 45.0% for Obama.[16]

Fundraising

John McCain raised $7,448,622. Barack Obama raised $5,491,056.[17]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $1,510,900 in the state. McCain and his interest groups spent just $751.[18] The Democratic ticket didn't visit the state. Arizona native John McCain visited the state 5 times in the election campaign.[19]

Analysis

Arizona has long been a Republican-dominated state. It is represented in the Senate by two Republicans (John McCain and Jon Kyl). It has only supported a Democrat for president once in the last 60 years, when Bill Clinton carried it in 1996. In addition, both the Arizona Senate and Arizona House of Representatives are controlled by Republicans - although the Governor was Democrat Janet Napolitano and Republicans held only four of Arizona's eight House seats before the election.

Arizona was McCain's home state and gave its 10 electoral votes to its favorite son. However, he won just under 54 percent of the vote. By comparison, he'd been reelected in 2004 with 77 percent of the vote, one of the largest margins of victory for a statewide race in Arizona history. This led to speculation that the race would have been far closer without McCain on the ballot.[20] One major factor is the growing Hispanic vote in the state, a voting bloc that tends to favor the Democrats, although both George W. Bush and John McCain held moderate positions on illegal immigration.

Arizona politics are dominated by Maricopa and Pima counties, home to Phoenix and Tucson respectively. Between them, these two counties cast almost three-fourths of the state's vote and elect a substantial majority of the legislature. Maricopa County, a Republican stronghold since 1948, gave McCain an 11-point victory. This alone was more than enough to make up for Obama's narrow victory in Democratic-leaning Tucson. McCain also did well elsewhere throughout the state, winning the more sparsely populated counties by double-digits.

The election also saw Republicans making gains in the state legislature, as the GOP picked up one seat in the State Senate and three seats in the State House. The Democrats, however, managed to win the open seat in Arizona's 1st congressional district, with former state representative Ann Kirkpatrick cruising to victory over Republican Sydney Hay.

Results

Constitution Party nominee Chuck Baldwin, Boston Tea Party nominee Charles Jay and independent candidate Jonathan Allen were registered write-in candidates in Arizona.

Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 1,230,111 53.39% 10
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 1,034,707 44.91% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 12,555 0.54% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 11,301 0.49% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 3,406 0.15% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin (write-in) Darrell Castle 1,371 0.06% 0
Independent Charles Jay (write-in) Barry Hess 16 0.00% 0
Independent Jonathan Allen (write-in) Jeffrey Stath 8 0.00% 0
Invalid or blank votes 27,376 1.18% —
Totals 2,320,851 100.00% 10
Voter turnout 77.69%
Source: [21]

Results breakdown

By county

County McCain# McCain% Obama# Obama% Barr# Barr% Nader# Nader% McKinney# McKinney% Others# Others% Total
ballots		 Total eligible
registration		 Voter
turnout
Apache 8,551 34.3% 15,390 61.8% 111 0.4% 109 0.4% 75 0.3% 26 0.1% 24,907 41,425 60.13%
Cochise 29,026 58.8% 18,943 38.4% 371 0.8% 356 0.7% 90 0.2% 34 0.1% 49,390 70,715 69.84%
Coconino 22,186 40.4% 31,433 57.3% 267 0.5% 309 0.6% 117 0.2% 32 0.1% 54,861 69,855 78.54%
Gila 14,095 62.0% 7,884 34.7% 150 0.7% 156 0.7% 31 0.1% 17 0.1% 22,717 31,132 72.97%
Graham 8,376 68.8% 3,487 28.7% 60 0.5% 56 0.5% 23 0.2% 5 0.0% 12,170 17,282 70.42%
Greenlee 1,712 57.7% 1,165 39.3% 16 0.5% 17 0.6% 3 0.1% 0 0.0% 2,968 4,337 68.43%
La Paz 3,509 61.9% 1,929 34.0% 39 0.7% 53 0.9% 14 0.2% 8 0.1% 5,671 8,195 69.20%
Maricopa 746,448 54.0% 602,166 43.6% 7,605 0.6% 6,095 0.4% 1,799 0.1% 849 0.1% 1,380,571 1,730,886 79.76%
Mohave 44,333 64.3% 22,092 32.0% 433 0.6% 561 0.8% 111 0.2% 75 0.1% 68,930 105,200 65.52%
Navajo 19,761 54.3% 15,579 42.8% 158 0.4% 182 0.5% 70 0.2% 50 0.1% 36,366 58,528 62.13%
Pima 182,406 45.9% 206,254 51.9% 1,923 0.5% 1,995 0.5% 683 0.2% 167 0.0% 397,503 496,667 80.03%
Pinal 59,421 56.0% 44,254 41.7% 530 0.5% 562 0.5% 116 0.1% 0 0.0% 106,095 145,704 72.82%
Santa Cruz 4,518 33.4% 8,683 64.1% 49 0.4% 35 0.3% 17 0.1% 1 0.0% 13,542 21,287 63.62%
Yavapai 61,192 60.6% 36,889 36.6% 638 0.6% 638 0.6% 185 0.2% 106 0.1% 100,904 118,923 84.85%
Yuma 24,577 55.5% 18,559 41.9% 205 0.5% 177 0.4% 72 0.2% 25 0.1% 44,256 67,315 65.74%
Total 1,230,111 53.0% 1,034,707 44.6% 12,555 0.5% 11,301 0.5% 3,406 0.1% 1,395 0.1% 2,230,851 2,987,451 77.69%
Source: [21]

By congressional district

McCain won a majority of the vote in six of Arizona's eight congressional districts, while Obama won two. McCain won two districts (AZ-08 and AZ-05) represented by Democrats (Gabrielle Giffords and Harry Mitchell, respectively), and one other (AZ-01) represented by a Republican at the time but which voted for a Democrat (Ann Kirkpatrick) in the simultaneous U.S. House elections. Both districts Obama carried are represented by Democrats.[22]

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 54.42% 44.25% Rick Renzi (110th Congress)
Ann Kirkpatrick (111th Congress)
2nd 60.75% 38.07% Trent Franks
3rd 56.47% 42.34% John Shadegg
4th 33.02% 65.73% Ed Pastor
5th 51.7% 47.17% Harry Mitchell
6th 61.32% 37.55% Jeff Flake
7th 41.65% 57.19% Raul Grijalva
8th 52.37% 46.43% Gabrielle Giffords

Electors

Technically the voters of Arizona cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arizona is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[23] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[24][25]

  1. Bruce Ash
  2. Kurt Davis
  3. Wes Gullett
  4. Sharon Harper
  5. Jack Londen
  6. Beverly Lockett Miller
  7. Lee Miller
  8. Bettina Nava
  9. Randy Pullen
  10. Michael Rappoport

References

  1. ↑ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Arizona". Retrieved 2008-12-20.
  2. ↑ D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries
  3. ↑ Presidential | The Cook Political Report
  4. ↑ Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions
  5. ↑ Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results
  6. ↑ Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 Based on Takeaway
  8. ↑ POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com
  9. ↑ RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
  10. ↑ CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008
  11. ↑ "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  12. ↑ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  13. ↑ "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  14. ↑ roadto270
  15. ↑ Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™
  16. ↑ "Arizona: McCain vs. Obama". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved June 3, 2009.
  17. ↑ "Presidential Campaign Finance: AZ Contributions to All Candidates by 3 digit Zip Code". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved June 3, 2009.
  18. ↑ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  19. ↑ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  20. ↑ Todd, Chuck and Gawiser, Sheldon. How Barack Obama Won. New York City: Vintage, 2009.
  21. ↑ 21.0 21.1 "STATE OF ARIZONA OFFICIAL CANVASS: 2008 General Election - November 4, 2008" (PDF). Secretary of State of Arizona. 2008-12-01. Retrieved 2008-12-06.
  22. ↑ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008". Swing State Project. December 15, 2008. Retrieved June 3, 2009.
  23. ↑ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
  24. ↑ Full Listing
  25. ↑ Az presidential electors include ex-governors, activists - Tucson Citizen Morgue (1992-2009)

See also