United Kingdom general election, 2015
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The United Kingdom general election, 2015, will be held on 7 May 2015 and all 59 seats in Scotland are contested.
Political context
The general election in Scotland will be fought in the aftermath of the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, in which 1,617,989 voters (44.7%) backed independence while 2,001,926 (55.3%) did not. The referendum saw a record turnout of 84.59%, the "highest turnout in any nationwide ballot in Scotland since the advent of the mass franchise after the First World War". There is now speculation as to whether this will significantly affect the turnout in the general election.[1][2] An immediate consequence of the referendum was a massive rise in the membership of the pro-independence parties, with the SNP in particular adding 60,000 to its membership to reach over 85,000 within two months of the referendum.[3] This contrasts with the Labour Party in Scotland which had only 13,500 members at this time.
The prospect of an electoral alliance between pro-independence parties—specifically the SNP, the Scottish Greens, and the Scottish Socialist Party—was raised after the referendum and supported by elected SNP politicians,[4] but played down by Green co-convenor Patrick Harvie, who said party members did not want their "distinctive Green perspective" to be lost.[5] The SSP supported negotiations for a formal alliance until late in 2014.[6][7]
Contesting parties
Since 2005, the Scottish National Party had come first in the 2007 Scottish Parliament Election as well as the 2009 European Election. They had also won the Glasgow East by-election in 2008, which was one of the safest Labour seats in the UK. This boosted the party's confidence and the party's leader Alex Salmond set the ambitious target of 20 seats in the general election. Salmond himself was standing down as an MP because he wanted to focus more on his job as First Minister of Scotland. In the election, the party only increased their share of the vote by 2.3% and had their number of seats reduced to six after being overwhelmingly defeated in the Glasgow East constituency.
The Scottish Labour Party has held the majority of seats in Scotland in every general election since the 1960s. This is usually attributed to the North-South divide in British politics, where Scotland and the North of England tend to return mostly Labour MP's whereas the South of England tends to vote mostly for the Conservatives. Many prominent government officials were representing Scottish constituencies, such as the Prime Minister Gordon Brown and the Chancellor Alistair Darling. In the election, the Labour Party in Scotland increased its share of the vote by 2.5% and re-gained the Glasgow East and Dunfermline and West Fife constituencies giving them 41 out of 59 seats in Scotland.
The Scottish Conservative Party has not held the majority of Scottish seats in a general election since 1955 and it lost all eleven of its seats in the election of 1997. Since 2001, the party has only held one Westminster seat in Scotland. In 2005, following the re-organisation of Scottish constituencies, that seat was Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, a mostly rural constituency near the Scottish borders. in 2010 its share of the vote in Scotland increased by roughly 0.9% and retained the Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, as it only Scottish MP. It been reported the party could gain Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk.[8]
Minor parties such as the UK Independence Party, the British National Party and the Scottish Green Party will contest more Scottish seats than they did in the 2010 election. The United Kingdom Independence Party is targeting the sole Conservative seat in Scotland.[9][10] The Scottish Socialist Party is standing in four constituencies.[11]
Campaign events
- 31 March, First official day of the election campaign get under way, Scottish greens become the first party to launch its manifesto [12][13]
- 7 April; First TV debate was broadcast on STV[14]
- 8 April; Second TV debate was broadcast on BBC Scotland, with UKIP and the Scottish greens included.
- 10 April: Ed Milliband visits Edinburgh, to claim the SNP aim to have full control of tax in Scotland would create a £7.6bn financial "black hole",[15][16]
- 12 April; Third TV debate was broadcast on BBC Scotland,between the four main parties. The debate was criticised, with many of the public claiming it was a "Rammy".[17][18]
- 21 April: Sir John major enter into the row, and repeated claims by David cameron. about an Labour-SNP government was a "recipe for mayhem" and entering blackmail.[19] A number of former Conservative minsters entered into the debate claiming deep unease, about the retrick being spouted. Lord Tebbit said " Mr Cameron's repeated warnings about the SNP were "puzzling", "pointless" and might even push Scots to vote tactically for Labour.[20] Lord Forsyth claimed it was playing " short term and dangerous game" which could further threatens the union[21][22][23] Ed Miliband rejected the claims, while Nicola Sturgeon labelled Sir John's comments as "Silly over the top and an affront to democracy".[24]
Scottish leaders' debates
As in 2010, there will be televised debates ahead of the election, featuring the Scottish leaders of the three main UK parties as well as the leader of the SNP.[25] The first debate is to be broadcast on STV on 7 April. The second and third debates will be held on BBC One Scotland on 8 April with additional representatives from the Scottish Greens and UKIP. The last debate will take place on 3 May.[26]
The leaders from each of the main parties are:
Target Seats
Labour Party
Liberal Democrats
Scottish National Party
Conservative Party
References
