United Kingdom general election, 2015

United Kingdom general election, 2015

7 May 2015[1]

All 650 seats to the House of Commons 326 seats are needed for a majority. Opinion polls   Leader David Cameron Ed Miliband Nick Clegg Party Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat Leader since 6 December 2005 25 September 2010 18 December 2007 Leader's seat Witney Doncaster North Sheffield Hallam Last election 306 seats, 36.1% 258 seats, 29% 57 seats, 23% Current seats 302 256 56 Seats needed 24 70 270

Incumbent Prime Minister David Cameron Conservative

2001 election • MPs

2005 election • MPs

2010 election • MPs

The United Kingdom general election of 2015 will be held on 7 May 2015, to elect the 56th Parliament of the United Kingdom.

The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (as amended by the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013) led to the mandated dissolution of the 55th Parliament on 30 March 2015 and the scheduling of the election on 7 May, the House of Commons not having voted for an earlier date.^[2] There are local elections scheduled to take place on the same day across most of England, with the exception of Greater London. There are no additional elections scheduled to take place in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland, apart from any local by-elections.

In UK general elections, voting takes place in all parliamentary constituencies of the United Kingdom to elect Members of Parliament (MPs) to seats in the House of Commons, the lower house of Parliament.

How the election is held

Each parliamentary constituency of the United Kingdom elects one MP to the House of Commons using the 'first past the post' system. If one party obtains a majority of seats, then that party is entitled to form the Government. If the election results in no single party having a majority, then there is a hung parliament. In this case, the options for forming the Government are either a minority government or a coalition government.^[3]

Although the Conservative Party planned the number of parliamentary seats to be reduced from 650 to 600, through the Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies under the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011, the review of constituencies and reduction in seats was delayed by the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 amending the 2011 Act.^[4][5][6][7] The next boundary review is now set to take place in 2018; thus the 2015 general election will be contested using the same constituencies and boundaries as in 2010. Of the 650 constituencies, 533 are in England, 59 in Scotland, 40 in Wales and 18 in Northern Ireland.

In addition, the 2011 Act mandated a referendum in 2011 on changing from the current 'first past the post' system system to an Alternative Vote system for elections to the Commons. The Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition agreement committed the coalition government to such a referendum.^[8] The referendum was held in May 2011 and resulted in the retention of the existing voting system. Before the previous general election, the Liberal Democrats had pledged to change the voting system, and the Labour Party pledged to have a referendum about any such change.^[9] The Conservatives, however, promised to keep the first past the post system, but to reduce the number of constituencies by 10%. Liberal Democrat plans were to reduce the number of MPs to 500 elected using a proportional system.^[10][11]

Ministers have increased the amount of money that parties and candidates are allowed to spend on the election by 23%, a move decided against Electoral Commission advice.^[12] The election sees the first cap on spending by parties in individual constituencies during the 100 days before Parliament's dissolution on 30 March: £30,700, plus a per-voter allowance of 9p in county constituencies and 6p in borough seats. An additional voter allowance of more than £8,700 is available after the dissolution of Parliament. UK political parties spent £31.1m in the 2010 general election, of which Conservatives spent 53%, the Labour Party spent 25% and the Liberal Democrats 15%.^[13]

This will be the first UK general election using individual rather than household voter registration. The change in registration system has been accompanied by a drop of almost 1 million in the number of registered voters.^[14]

Date of the election

An election is called following the dissolution of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. The 2015 General Election is the first to be held under the provisions of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. Prior to this, the power to dissolve Parliament was a Royal Prerogative, exercised by the Queen on the advice of the Prime Minister. Under the provisions of the Septennial Act 1716, as amended by the Parliament Act 1911, an election had to be announced on or before the fifth anniversary of the beginning of the previous parliament, barring exceptional circumstances. No Sovereign had refused a request for dissolution since the beginning of the 20th century, and practice had evolved such that a Prime Minister would typically call a general election to be held at a tactically convenient time within the final two years of a Parliament's lifespan, in order to maximize the chance of an electoral victory for his or her party. ^[15]

Prior to the 2010 general election, the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats pledged to introduce fixed-term elections.^[9] As part of the Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition agreement, the Cameron ministry agreed to support legislation for fixed-term Parliaments, with the date of the next general election being 7 May 2015.^[16] This resulted in the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, which removed the Prime Minister's power to advise the monarch to call an early election. The Bill only permits an early dissolution if Parliament votes for one by a supermajority of 66%, or if a government loses a vote of no confidence by a majority and no new government is subsequently formed within 14 days. ^[17] However, the Prime Minister does have the power, by order made by Statutory Instrument under section 1(5) of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, to provide that the polling day is to be held up to two months later than 7 May 2015. Such a Statutory Instrument must be approved by each House of Parliament. Under section 14 of the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013, the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 was amended to extend the period between the dissolution of Parliament and the following general election polling day from 17 to 25 working days. This has had the effect of moving forward the date of the dissolution of the present Parliament to 30 March 2015.^[2]

Delay

Occasionally, a constituency is forced to delay its polling day. In each of the two preceding general elections, one constituency delayed its poll due to the death of a candidate.^[18]

One 2015 candidate has died: Ronnie Carroll, a Northern Irish singer and 1960s Eurovision Song Contest contestant running as an independent for Hampstead and Kilburn. Since Carroll was an independent, the polling day will not be delayed, although Carroll's name will remain on the ballot.^[19][20][21]

Contesting political parties and candidates

Overview

As of 9 April 2015, the deadline for standing for the general election, the Electoral Commission's Register of Political Parties includes 428 political parties registered in Great Britain,^[22] and 36 in Northern Ireland.^[23] Candidates who do not belong to a registered party can use an "independent" label, or no label at all.

The Conservative Party and Labour Party have been the two biggest parties since 1922, and have supplied all UK prime ministers since that date. Polls predict that these parties will receive between 65-75% of the votes and win 80-85% of seats between them ^[24][25] and that as such the leader of one of these parities will be the prime minister after the election. The Liberal Democrats have been the third party in the UK for many years; but as described by various commentators, other parties have risen relative to the Liberal Democrats since the 2010 election.^[26][27] The Economist described a "familiar two-and-a-half-party system" (Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats) that "appears to be breaking down" with the rise of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), the Greens and the Scottish National Party (SNP).^[28] Newsnight^[29] and The Economist^[30] have described the country as moving into a six-party system, with the Liberal Democrats, SNP, UKIP and Greens all being significant. Ofcom, in their role regulating election coverage in the UK, have ruled that for the general election and local elections in May 2015, the major parties in Great Britain are the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats, with UKIP a major party in England and Wales, the SNP a major party in Scotland, and Plaid Cymru (PC) in Wales, and that the Greens are not a major party.^[31] The BBC's guidelines are similar but exclude UKIP from the category of "larger parties" in Great Britain and instead state that UKIP should be given "appropriate levels of coverage in output to which the largest parties contribute and, on some occasions, similar levels of coverage".^{[32] [33]} Seven parties (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP, SNP, PC and Green) participated in the election leadership debates.^[34]

Great Britain based

The main Great Britain based parties - several parties operate in Northern Ireland only, which has a mainly separate political culture - are listed below in order of seats being contested:

• Conservative Party: led by David Cameron, the current prime minister. The Conservatives were the larger party in the coalition government, having won the most seats (306) at the 2010 election. They are standing in 647 seats, not contesting 2 in Northern Ireland and the seat of the Speaker
• Labour Party: led by Ed Miliband. Labour had been in power from 1997 to 2010. They were the Opposition party after the 2010 election, having won 258 seats. They are standing in 631 of Great Britain's 632 constituencies,^{[note 1]} missing only the Speaker's seat.
• Liberal Democrats: led by Nick Clegg, the current deputy prime minister. The Liberal Democrats were the junior member of the 2010–15 Coalition Government, having won 57 seats. The Lib Dems are contesting the same 631 seats as the Labour Party.
• UK Independence Party: led by Nigel Farage MEP, who has not previously been in parliament but is standing in South Thanet in the general election. UKIP won the fourth most votes at the 2010 election, but failed to win any seats. They have since won two seats at by-elections in 2014 and won the highest share of votes at the 2014 European Elections. They will be contesting 624 seats across the United Kingdom.
• Greens. Two distinct but cooperating Green parties operate in Great Britain: the Green Party of England and Wales and the Scottish Green Party, with opinion polling generally making no distinction between the two. The Green Party of England and Wales is led by Natalie Bennett, who has not previously been elected to Westminster, but is standing in Holborn and St Pancras at the general election. Caroline Lucas was elected as the only Green MP in 2010, in which the two parties received a combined 1% of the vote and were seventh overall. The Greens will be standing in 568 seats in Great Britain.
• Scottish National Party: led by Nicola Sturgeon, who is an MSP and not standing in the general election. The SNP only contest seats in Scotland and will be standing in all 59 Scottish constituencies. The party got the second most votes in Scotland and sixth overall in 2010, winning 6 seats. They have since won the 2011 election to the Scottish Parliament and have had a surge of support since the Scottish independence referendum in September 2014, which they lost.^[35] Most projections suggest that they will be the third largest party overall after the 2015 election, in terms of seats won, overtaking the Liberal Democrats.^[25]
• Plaid Cymru: led by Leanne Wood, a member of the Welsh Assembly and not standing in the general election. Plaid Cymru organise in Wales where they will be contesting all 40 constituencies. They have three MPs and were fourth in Wales (eighth in Great Britain) by vote share in 2010, later finishing third in the 2011 Welsh Assembly elections.

Dozens of other minor parties are standing in Great Britain. The Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, founded as an electoral alliance of socialist parties in 2010 have 128 candidates and are the only other party to have more than 40 candidates.^[36] Respect enter into the election with one MP (George Galloway), who was elected at the 2012 Bradford West by-election, but are standing just 4 candidates. The British National Party, a far-right nationalist party which finished fifth with 1.9% of the vote for its 338 candidates at the 2010 General Election, are standing only 8 candidates following a collapse in support.^[37] There are 753 other candidates standing at the general election, including all independents, Northern Ireland-based party candidates, and candidates from other parties.^[37]

Northern Ireland

The main parties in Northern Ireland (with 18 constituencies) described by Ofcom,^[31] the BBC^[38] and others, ordered by vote share in 2010, are:

• Sinn Féin: Sinn Féin won most votes in Northern Ireland in 2010, but came second in seats, winning five constituencies. They were second in the 2011 Assembly elections, but first in the 2014 European elections. Sinn Féin operate a policy of abstentionism with respect to the Commons and have never so far taken their seats there. The party also organises in the Republic of Ireland, where it does take seats in parliament. They are standing in all 18 Northern Irish constituencies.
• Democratic Unionist Party: the DUP won 8 seats in 2010, making them the biggest party from Northern Ireland, and the fourth biggest in the UK as a whole. The party also won the 2011 Northern Ireland Assembly election, but were second in the 2014 European election. They will be contesting 16 seats, having entered into an electoral pact with the Ulster Unionist Party in 2.
• Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP): the SDLP were third in terms of votes and seats in the 2010 and 2011 elections, and fourth in the 2014 European elections. They have three MPs. The SDLP has a relationship with the Labour Party in Great Britain, with SDLP MPs generally following the Labour whip. They are expected to support Labour in June in the event of a hung Parliament^[39] and are contesting all 18 constituencies at the election.
• Ulster Unionist Party: in 2010 the UUP shared an electoral alliance with the Conservative Party and finished 4th in terms of votes in Northern Ireland, but won no MPs. However, they have an MEP, having been third in the 2014 European elections. They were fourth in the 2011 Assembly elections. They will contest 15 seats, not running due to an electoral pact with the DUP in 2 seats or in the seat of their former member and current independent MP Lady Hermon.
• Alliance Party of Northern Ireland: the Alliance Party had an MP (Naomi Long) elected for the first time in 2010. They were fifth in the 2010 election by vote share, fifth overall in 2011 and sixth in 2014. Alliance has a relationship with the Liberal Democrats in Great Britain: the party's former leader sits in the House of Lords as a Liberal Democrat, but Alliance's one MP elected in 2010 sat on the opposition benches in the Commons and not with the Liberal Democrats on the government benches. They are contesting all 18 Northern Irish constituencies in 2015.

Smaller parties in Northern Ireland include Traditional Unionist Voice (standing in 7 seats) and the Green Party in Northern Ireland (standing in 5 seats), both of whom have one current Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA). The independent MP Lady Hermon will once again be running for election in North Down.

Candidates

The deadline for parties and individuals to file candidate nomination papers to the acting returning officer (and the deadline for candidates to withdraw) was 4 p.m. on 9 April 2015.^{[40][41][42][43]} The total number of candidates is 3,971; the is the second-highest number in history, slightly down from the record 4,150 candidates at the last election in 2010.^[37][44]

There are a record number of female candidates standing in terms of both absolute numbers and percentage of candidates: 1,020 (26.1%) in 2015, up from 854 (21.1%) in 2010.^[37][44] The proportion of female candidates for major parties ranges from 41% of Alliance Party candidates to 12% of UKIP candidates. ^[45] According to UCL's Parliamentary Candidates UK project ^[46] the major parties had the following percentages of black and ethnic minority candidates: the Conservatives 11%, the Liberal Democrats 10%, Labour 9%, UKIP 6%, the Greens 4%.^[47] The average age of the candidates for the seven major parties is 45 ^[46] The youngest candidates are all aged 18: Solomon Curtis (Labour, Wealden); Niamh McCarthy (Independent, Liverpool Wavertree; Michael Burrows (UKIP, Inverclyde) Declan Lloyd (Labour, South East Cornwall); and Laura-Jane Rossington (Communist Party of Britain, Plymouth Sutton and Devonport.^[48][49][50] The oldest candidate is Doris Osen, 84, of the Elderly Persons' Independent Party (EPIC), who is standing in Ilford North.^[49] Other oldest candidates running in the election include two longtime Labour MPs running for reelection: Sir Gerald Kaufman, 84, of Manchester Gorton, and Dennis Skinner, 83, of Bolsover.

2010 results

The table below shows the figures for seats won by each party at the 2010 election and the seat changes that have taken place before the next election.

Affiliation		Members[51]
		After 2010 General Election	At dissolution of Parliament
	Conservative	306	302
	Labour	258	256
	Liberal Democrat	57	56
	DUP	8	8
	SNP	6	6
	Independent	1	5
	Sinn Féin	5	5
	Plaid Cymru	3	3
	SDLP	3	3
	UKIP	0	2
	Alliance	1	1
	Green	1	1
	Respect	0	1
	Speaker	1	1
Total number of seats		650	650
Actual government majority		83	73

Notes

• See here for a full list of changes during the fifty-fifth Parliament.
• The actual government majority is calculated as Conservative and Liberal Democrat MPs less all other parties. This calculation excludes the Speaker, Deputy Speakers (two Labour and one Conservative) and Sinn Féin.

MPs not standing for re-election

While at the previous election there had been a record 148 MPs not standing for re-election,^[52] the 2015 election saw 90 MPs standing down.^[53] These comprised 38 Conservative, 37 Labour, 3 Independent, 1 Sinn Fein and 1 Plaid Cymru MP. The highest profile Members of Parliament leaving were: Gordon Brown, a former Prime Minister, Leader of the Labour Party (both 2007-2010) and Chancellor of the Exchequer (1997-2007); and William Hague, the outgoing First Secretary of State and Leader of the House of Commons and former Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs (2010-2014), Leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Opposition (both 1997-2001). ^[54] Alongside Brown and Hague, 17 former cabinet ministers stood down at the election, including Stephen Dorrell, Jack Straw, Alistair Darling, David Blunkett, Sir Malcolm Rikfind and Dame Tessa Jowell.^[54] The highest profile Liberal Democrat to stand down was former leader Sir Menzies Campbell, while the longest serving MP (the "Father of the House") Sir Peter Tapsell also retired having served from 1959-1964 and then continuously since the 1966 general election.^[54]

Television debates

The first series of televised leaders' debates in the United Kingdom were held in the previous election. After much debate and various proposals,^[55][56] a seven-way debate with the leaders of Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, UKIP, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru was held, with a series of related programmes.

Opinion polling

━━━━ Conservative   ━━━━ Labour   ━━━━ Lib Dem   ━━━━ UKIP   ━━━━ Greens

The chart shows the positions of the political parties from 13 May 2010 to the date of the last published opinion poll. Each line corresponds to a party: blue for the Conservatives, red for Labour, yellow for the Liberal Democrats, purple for UKIP, and green for the Greens. Although not shown, other parties such as the Scottish National Party have on occasion polled higher than one or more of the parties shown in the chart. Each dot represents a party's results in opinion polls; the lines are then created by a 15-day moving average.

Throughout the present parliament, first and second place have without exception alternated between the Conservatives and Labour. The Liberal Democrats and the UK Independence Party have tended to hold either third or fourth place in each individual poll. The combined Green parties consistently polled at least fifth and have on occasions polled fourth – level with or ahead of UKIP for a period in 2010, or more recently the Liberal Democrats.

Early in the parliament, there was a collapse in Liberal Democrat support,^[57] which primarily went to the Labour party. In 2012 there was an increase in UKIP support,^[58] largely from the Conservatives, meaning that Labour had a substantial polling lead.^[59]

In 2013 the Labour lead over the Conservatives declined from around 10% to around 6%, and it then fell again to just under two points in 2014.^[60] In 2014 there was a noticeable increase in Green support from around 2% to their highest levels of support since the late 1980s. UKIP support rose overall in 2014, particularly because of defections and by-elections.^[60]

Particularly since the Scottish Independence Referendum, the Scottish National Party has gained substantial leads in Scotland.^[60]

The UK's electoral system and its use of first-past-the-post means that there is no direct relationship between national vote share and seats won.^[61] Thus parties like UKIP and the Greens are expected to underperform in seats won compared to the vote shares predicted by polling, while parties standing only in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are expected to do much better in seat terms than their overall vote share.

Endorsements

Seat predictions

The first-past-the-post system used in UK general elections means that the number of seats won is not closely related to vote share.^[61] Thus, a number of approaches are used to convert polling data and other information into seat predictions. The table below lists a number of regularly updated predictions. ElectionForecast is being used by Newsnight and FiveThirtyEight. May2015.com is a project run by the New Statesman magazine.^[62]

Such approaches may just use Great Britain polling, may look at polling in the different constituent nations or may additionally incorporate constituency level polling. Approaches may or may not use uniform national swing (UNS). Approaches may just use current polling, i.e. a 'nowcast' (e.g. Electoral Calculus, May2015.com and The Guardian), or add in a predictive element about how polling shifts based on historical data (e.g. ElectionForecast and Elections Etc.).^[63] An alternative approach is to use the wisdom of the crowd and base a prediction on betting activity: the Sporting Index column below covers bets on the number of seats each party will win with the midpoint between asking and selling price, while FirstPastThePost.net aggregates the betting predictions in each individual constituency. Some predictions cover Northern Ireland, with its distinct political culture, while others do not. Parties are sorted by current number of seats in the House of Commons:

Party	ElectionForecast[63][64] (Newsnight Index) as of 1 May 2015	Electoral Calculus[65] as of 1 May 2015	Elections Etc[66] as of 1 May 2015	The Guardian[67] as of 1 May 2015	May2015.com[68] as of 1 May 2015	Sporting Index[69] as of 1 May 2015	First Past the Post[70] as of 30 April 2015
Conservatives	280	282	290	276	275	286	278
Labour	269	275	258	267	267	271	271
Liberal Democrats	26	18	25	27	27	24	25
DUP	9	Included under Other	GB forecast only	Included under Other	Included under Other	No market	8.7
SNP	50	52	53	55	56	46	48
UKIP	1	1	3	3	2	3.5	4
SDLP	2	Included under Other	GB forecast only	Included under Other	Included under Other	No market	2.7
Plaid Cymru	4	3	3	Included under Other	3	3.6	3.1
Greens	1	1	1	1	1	1.15	0.7
Other	Sinn Féin 5 UUP 1 Sylvia Hermon 1 Speaker 1	18 (including 18 NI seats)	GB forecast only, but does not sum to 632 due to rounding	21 (including 18 NI seats)	19 (including 18 NI seats & Respect 1)	No market	Sinn Féin 4.7 Hermon 1 Speaker 1 UUP 1 Respect 0.6
Overall result (probability)	Hung Parliament (98%)	Hung Parliament (83%)	Hung Parliament (90%)	Hung Parliament	Hung Parliament	Hung Parliament	Hung Parliament

Other predictions have been published.^[71] An election forecasting conference on 27 March 2015 yielded 11 forecasts of the result in Great Britain (including some included in the table above).^[72] Averaging these predictions gives Labour 283 seats, Conservatives 279, Liberal Democrats 23, UKIP 3, SNP 41, Plaid Cymru 3 and Greens 1.^[73] In that situation, no two parties (excluding a Lab-Con coalition) would be able to form a majority without the support of a third. On 27 April, Rory Scott of the bookmaker Paddy Power predicted Conservatives 284, Labour 272, SNP 50, UKIP 3, and Greens 1.^[74]

LucidTalk for the Belfast Telegraph have a monthly prediction, incorporating some dedicated polling, of the result in Northern Ireland. Latest prediction: DUP 9, SF 5, SDLP 3, Lady Hermon 1, with the only seat changing hands being the DUP gaining Belfast East from Alliance.^[75]

Target seats

Under the first-past-the-post system, parties usually focus their efforts on winnable seats, described as targeting. Possible target seats are described in a list of target seats at the United Kingdom general election, 2015.

Pacts and possible coalitions

With the United Kingdom electoral system, coalitions have been rare as one party has usually won an overall majority in the Commons. However, with the current Government being a coalition and with opinion polls not showing a large or consistent lead for any one party, there has been much discussion about possible post-election coalitions or other arrangements such as confidence and supply agreements.^[76] The run-up to the general election has been marked by a rise in multi-party politics, with increased support for UKIP, the SNP and the Greens. That, coupled with the two main parties, Conservative and Labour having similar levels of support, has led to discussion of another hung parliament and what government would then be formed.^[29] Because of the first past the post electoral system, the number of seats won by parties can be very different from their vote share, complicating predictions.^[77][78]

Pre-election pacts

Some UK political parties that only stand in part of the country have reciprocal relationships with parties standing in other parts of the country. These include:

• Labour (in Great Britain) and SDLP (in Northern Ireland)
• Liberal Democrats (in Great Britain) and Alliance (in Northern Ireland)
• SNP (in Scotland) and Plaid Cymru (in Wales)
  • Plaid Cymru have also recommended supporters in England vote Green,^[79] while SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has said she would vote for Plaid Cymru were she in Wales, and Green were she in England.^[80]
• Green Party of England and Wales (in England and Wales), Scottish Greens (in Scotland) and the Green Party in Northern Ireland (in Northern Ireland)

On 17 March 2015, after six months of discussion, the Democratic Unionists and Ulster Unionists agreed an election pact whereby the DUP will not stand candidates in Fermanagh and South Tyrone (where a joint unionist candidate just lost to Sinn Féin in the most marginal result in the UK in 2010) and Newry and Armagh (where the UUP and DUP were third and fourth respectively in 2010). In return, the UUP will stand aside in Belfast East (which the DUP lost to the Alliance in 2010) and Belfast North (DUP hold in 2010). Of these four seats, Belfast East elected Naomi Long (the Alliance Party's sole MP), Belfast North is held by the DUP, and the other two elected Sinn Féin MPs in 2010. The Unionist parties were unable to agree on a pact for the SDLP-held Belfast South constituency.^[81] The election pact between the two largest Unionist parties may be advantageous to both parties: the UUP lost their last constituency in 2010, whilst a ninth seat for the DUP would further strengthen their position as the dominant political force in Northern Ireland.

The SDLP rejected a similar pact suggested by Sinn Féin, citing that they believe election pacts to be 'clinging to the past',^[82][83] and rejected the proposal again when it was repeated after the announcement of the UUP/DUP agreement.^[84]

The DUP has also called on voters in Scotland to support whichever pro-Union candidate is best placed to beat the SNP.^[85]

Party positions

The Conservatives and Labour both say that they are aiming to achieve an overall majority of seats, rendering a coalition unnecessary. The Conservatives have largely refused to discuss possible coalition scenarios.^[86] Labour and the Conservatives are also reported to be preparing for the possibility of a second election in the year.^[87]

If neither of them achieves an overall majority, the Liberal Democrats have said that they will talk first to whichever party wins the most seats.^[88] Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, also said that he would "find it very difficult to imagine the circumstances" in which the Lib Dems and UKIP would sit together in Cabinet.^[89] The Liberal Democrats also said they would not be involved in a coalition with the SNP. On 24 April 2015, Clegg said he ruled out "any arrangements" with UKIP or the SNP. He continued: "I would never recommend to the Liberal Democrats that we help establish a government which is basically on a life support system, where Alex Salmond could pull the plug any time he wants."^[90][91]

Labour initially ruled out a coalition with the SNP, but not a less formal arrangement.^[92] On 26 April, Miliband ruled out a confidence and supply arrangement with the SNP too.^[93] Labour have also ruled out a coalition with Plaid Cymru.^[94] The Conservatives previously ruled out a coalition with the SNP,^[95] while the Liberal Democrat Business Secretary, Vince Cable, also said that the Liberal Democrats will not enter a coalition with the SNP.^[96]

Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, asked about a deal with UKIP in the Scottish leaders' debate, replied, "No deals with UKIP." She continued that her preference and the Prime Minister's preference in a hung Parliament is for a minority Conservative government.^[97]

The Green Party of England & Wales, Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party have all ruled out working with the Conservatives, and have agreed to work together "wherever possible" to counter austerity.^{[98][99][100]} Each would also make it a condition of any agreement with Labour that Trident nuclear weapons are not replaced; the Green Party of England and Wales have stated that 'austerity is a red line.'^[101] The SNP have actively campaigned on a position that they could hold the balance of power and would use this influence to ensure greater devolution for Scotland, as was promised in the referendum campaign. The SNP have said they "are prepared to work with Labour and the Liberal Democrats."^[95] The SNP have said a formal coalition with Labour is "highly unlikely" (in the words of party leader Nicola Sturgeon),^[102] but have left open the possibility of more informal support.^[103] In the Scottish leaders' debate on STV on 7 April, pressed on the point by the Scottish Labour leader, Sturgeon said, "I don't want David Cameron to be prime minister, I'm offering to help make Ed Miliband prime minister."^[104] The SNP manifesto says:

The SNP will never put the Tories into power.
Instead, if there is an anti-Tory majority after the election, we will offer to work with other parties to keep the Tories out.^[105]

Nicola Sturgeon has also said that, although not an MP, she will lead any post-election negotiations.^[106]

Plaid Cymru also prefer a confidence and supply arrangement with Labour.^[107] The Green Party of England and Wales have also ruled out joining any coalition,^[101] even though a Labour/SNP/Green coalition was the outcome in the event of a hung parliament that attracted most support among the general public in an ICM opinion poll.^[108]

UKIP say they could support any government that offered a referendum on EU membership^[109] through a confidence and supply arrangement, but have ruled out joining a formal coalition.^[110] UKIP leader, Nigel Farage subsequently said he would support a minority Conservative government through a confidence and supply arrangement in return for a referendum before Christmas 2015. He also spoke of the DUP joining UKIP in this arrangement.^[111] UKIP and DUP have said they will work together in Parliament.^[112] In the 16 April opposition leaders' debate, Farage said UKIP "could have worked with" Labour had they offered a referendum on the EU, but that Labour had "turned their backs" on the idea.^[113]

The DUP have welcomed the possibility of a hung Parliament and the influence that this would bring them.^[87] The party's deputy leader, Nigel Dodds, has said that the party could work with the Conservatives or Labour, but that the party is "not interested in a full-blown coalition government".^[114] Their leader, Peter Robinson, has said that the DUP will talk first to whichever party wins the most seats.^[115] In March 2015, Peter Robinson said, "We are one of those parties that has not determined that we will only speak to one party."^[116] The DUP have said they want, for their support, a commitment to 2% defence spending, a referendum on EU membership, and a reversal of the under-occupation penalty. They oppose the SNP being involved in government.^[117][118] The UUP have also indicated that they would not work with the SNP if it wanted another independence referendum in Scotland.^[119]

The leader of the SDLP, Alasdair McDonnell, has said, "We will be the left-of-centre backbone of a Labour administration", and that, "the SDLP will categorically refuse to support David Cameron and the Conservative Party".^[116] Sinn Féin have reiterated their abstentionist stance.^[87]

Media speculation

The most likely outcomes of the election have been described in the media as: a Labour majority, a Labour/SNP informal relationship, Labour/Liberal Democrats/SNP power-sharing, a Labour/Liberal Democrats coalition, a Conservative/Liberal Democrats coalition, or a Conservative majority, but with the possible involvement of one or some of the smaller parties (SDLP, Green, Plaid Cymru, DUP and UKIP) as well.^[116] With Sinn Féin abstaining from Parliament, 323 seats are needed for a majority (presuming Sinn Féin have 5 seats, holding the ultra-marginal of Fermanagh and South Tyrone). Labour are seen as having more potential support in Parliament than the Conservatives. The SDLP will support Labour; the independent MP Lady Hermon is expected to support the formation of a Labour government; and Respect, if elected, will not support a Conservative government. The SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens have all said they will not support the Conservatives.^[120] That leaves fewer parties who might support either of the biggest two parties.

There have been discussions and debates about whether the Liberal Democrats would continue in coalition with the Conservatives, or enter a new Lib–Lab pact. Some commentators^[121] suggest that the election result might mean that the Liberal Democrats could not form a majority two-party coalition with either Labour or Conservatives, and that the Liberal Democrats may prefer not to be in a coalition anyway.^[87]

The most likely right-of-centre coalition of three parties is seen as being the Conservatives, the UK Independence Party and the Democratic Unionist Party, although a Conservative minister, Rob Wilson, suggested that a second General Election would be more likely than a three-party coalition. An agreement of some description between the Conservatives and the DUP without UKIP would be less controversial and easier to negotiate.^[122] The possibility of a Conservative/LibDem/DUP coalition has also been mooted in the media. Likely arrangements on the left of centre would see Labour supported by the SNP, the Liberal Democrats or both. Various smaller parties (Green, Plaid Cymru, SDLP) could also support therm.^[123]

There has also been discussion of the possibility of a Conservative-Labour coalition,^[124][125] although this is seen as unlikely.^[126][127]

Timetable

Counting of the votes is expected to be finished on 8 May 2015. Parliament is due to sit again on 18 May and will begin by electing or re-electing the Speaker. The Queen's Speech and State Opening are due on 27 May.^[2] After a few days of debate, there will be a vote on the Queen's Speech, which is generally regarded as a test of whether the new government formed can stay in office (although it does not constitute an explicit vote of no confidence under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act).^[128]

The UK has an unordered government formation process: that is, the parties can negotiate with each other as they wish. The incumbent ministerial team remain in office until a new government is formed, but are expected not to take any major decisions.^[115]

See also

• Constitution of the United Kingdom

Footnotes

References

External links

Polls and forecasts

• Election 2015 polls and predictions
• UK Polling Report Blog
  • UK Polling Report – 2015 Election Guide
• UK 2015 Parliamentary Election Forecast
• Another hung Parliament: what next?, video from UCL Constitution Unit

News sites

• General Election 2015 - BBC News
• General Election 2015 at the Guardian
• General Election 2015 at the Daily Telegraph

Manifestos

• Alliance Party of Northern Ireland: Step forward, not back
• Communist Party of Britain: 2015 Communist Party general election manifesto
• Conservative Party: Strong leadership, a clear economic plan, a brighter, more secure future
• Democratic Unionist Party: Standing Up for Northern Ireland
• English Democrats Party: Putting England First
• Green Party in Northern Ireland: For the Common Good
• Green Party of England and Wales: For the common good
• Labour Party: Britain can be better
• Liberal Democrats: Stronger economy. Fairer society. Opportunity for everyone
• Liberal Party: General election mini manifesto 2015
• Mebyon Kernow: Vote for Cornwall... and a new approach to politics
• Plaid Cymru: Working For Wales
• Scottish Green Party: An economy for the people, a society for all
• Scottish National Party: Stronger for Scotland
• Scottish Socialist Party: For an independent socialist Scotland: Standing up for Scotland's working class majority
• Sinn Féin: Equality not austerity
• Social Democratic and Labour Party: Prosperity not austerity
• Socialist Labour Party: Socialist Labour Party manifesto
• Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition: TUSC's general election policies
• UK Independence Party: Believe in Britain
• Ulster Unionist Party: One day, one vote, one chance for change

Boundary Commissions

• Boundary Commission for England
• Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland
• Boundary Commission for Scotland
• Boundary Commission for Wales ((in Welsh))

United Kingdom general election, 2015 ← 2010 election Constituencies Debates MPs who stood down Endorsements Opinion polling Parties Target seats Incumbent Prime Minister: David Cameron (Conservative) Subsequent Prime Minister: TBD Incumbent Deputy Prime Minister: Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrats) Subsequent Deputy Prime Minister: TBD Parties elected to the House of Commons Conservative (David Cameron) Labour (Ed Miliband) Liberal Democrats (Nick Clegg) Democratic Unionist Party (Peter Robinson) Scottish National Party (Nicola Sturgeon) Sinn Féin (Gerry Adams) Plaid Cymru (Leanne Wood) Social Democratic and Labour Party (Alasdair McDonnell) UK Independence Party (Nigel Farage) Green Party of England and Wales (Natalie Bennett) Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (David Ford) Respect (George Galloway) Parties represented in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, London, or the European Parliament Green Party in Northern Ireland (Steven Agnew) Scottish Green Party (Patrick Harvie/Maggie Chapman) Ulster Unionist Party (Mike Nesbitt) Traditional Unionist Voice (Jim Allister) Other Full list of parties standing candidates Results by area Northern Ireland Scotland Wales England London Cornwall West Yorkshire United Kingdom local elections, 2015

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