Turkish general election, 2015

Next Turkish general election

June 7, 2015

All 550 seats of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey 276 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls   Leader Ahmet Davutoğlu Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Party AKP CHP Leader since 28 August 2014 22 May 2010 Leader's seat Konya İzmir (II) Last election 327 seats, 49.83% 135 seats, 25.98% Current seats 312 125 Seats needed 151   Leader Devlet Bahçeli Selahattin Demirtaş Figen Yüksekdağ Party MHP HDP Leader since 6 July 1997 22 June 2014 Leader's seat Osmaniye İstanbul (I) • Van Last election 53 seats, 13.01% 35 seats, 5.67%[1] Current seats 52 29 Seats needed 224 247

Incumbent Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu AKP

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The Turkish general election of 2015 will be held on June 7, 2015 to elect the 550 members of the Grand National Assembly. The election will be the 24th general election in the history of the Turkish Republic and the elected members will form the 25th Parliament of Turkey.

Background

The governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) will seek a fourth consecutive term in government. Its leader, Ahmet Davutoğlu, will seek a full term as Prime Minister of Turkey in his own right, having taken over from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in August 2014. The AKP's goal is likely to be to win more than 330 seats in order to have the right to put constitutional changes to a referendum, or more ideally 367 seats to bypass a referendum and change the constitution directly within parliament.^[2]

The Republican People's Party (CHP) will aim to surpass the 30% boundary and ideally aim to form a government, potentially with the help of smaller parties or in their own right. The CHP's leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has publicly stated that his party would target 35% of the vote, a rise of 9% from their 2011 result, in order to be able to form the next government.^[3] The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), having seen a surge in popular support during the 2014 local elections, would ideally aim to participate in a coalition government. However, several politicians from both the CHP and MHP have resigned in protest against their unrealistic electoral prospects and have formed their own parties. The most prominent break-away party is likely to be the Anatolia Party formed by former CHP MP Emine Ülker Tarhan in November 2014. Regardless, opposition parties would also need to overcome issues such as media bias and electoral fraud, both of which saw a sharp increase the preceding local and presidential elections.

Electoral cycle

This election is the last election scheduled in Turkey until 2019, meaning that the elected government will govern for four years without any electoral scrutiny. The next presidential, local and general elections will all occur in 2019. Argument as to whether this is by chance, or whether it was planned by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government when they proposed to reduce the parliamentary terms from five years to four in the 2007 constitutional referendum, are still ongoing.^[4] Speculation as to what the AKP government will do during four years of electorally unchecked power should they win has generated both favourable predictions and concerns. While four years without elections may allow the government to undertake widespread necessary economic reforms, critics of the AKP argue that it is an opportunity to further erode the diminishing checks and balances and separation of powers in the Turkish political and legal systems. The AKP also support a presidential system, which would give greater powers to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.^[5]

Early general election

The AKP government had allegedly proposed to hold an early general election in November 2014 if their candidate Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won the 2014 presidential election, especially due to opinion polls predicting a comfortable victory for Erdoğan in the first round.^[6] This would allow the AKP's new leader to seek an electoral mandate in their own right rather than serving the remainder of Erdoğan's term before seeking re-election. Although Erdoğan did win outright with 51.79% of the vote, his popular vote share was significantly below what opinion polls predicted. The presidential election results, according to several political commentators and journalists, greatly reduced the possibility of holding an early election, although some reports claimed that the government were preparing for an early election in April 2015.^[7] In October 2014, the AKP parliamentary group leader Naci Bostancı ruled out any prospect of holding the election early and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu stated in November that they would be held in June as per normal.^[8][9] Despite this, speculation in December 2014 as to whether the election would be brought forward in order not to clash with summer examinations remained.^[10] In the end, no such initiative was taken and YSK went on with the date June 7.^[11] Some schools subsequently changed the times of examinations in order to not clash with polling day.^[12]

The AKP are widely expected to target at least 330 seats in parliament in order to pursue constitutional reforms. In the 2014 local elections, the AKP won 42.87% of the vote, which would have translated into 285-300 seats had it been a general election. The opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) would have won 130-145 seats, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) would have won 75-85 and Kurdish nationalist independent candidates would win between 30-45 seats.^[13][14] Even if the AKP sought backing from independent Kurdish candidates as part of the ongoing solution process with Kurdish PKK rebels, it was still unlikely that they would hold a sufficient number of seats to put constitutional changes to a referendum. As a result, the prospect for an early general election on political grounds diminished.

Electoral system

Turkey elects 550 Members of Parliament to the Grand National Assembly using the D'Hondt method, a party-list proportional representation system. In order to return MPs to parliament, a party needs to gain more than 10% of the vote nationwide, meaning that parties may win the most votes in certain areas but not win any MPs due to a low result overall. The parliamentary threshold of 10% has been subject to intense scrutiny by opposition members, since all votes cast for parties polling under 10% are transferred to the winning party. This gives the party coming first a large winners bonus, as demonstrated in the 2002 general election where the AKP won with 34.28% of the vote but won nearly two-thirds of the seats.

The parliamentary threshold does not apply to independents, meaning that Kurdish nationalist politicians who poll strongly in the south-east but are not able to win 10% of the overall vote stand as independents rather than as a party candidate. This was the case in the 2007 and 2011 general election, where the Kurdish Democratic Society Party and the Peace and Democracy Party fielded independent candidates respectively.

Proposals for reform

The main criticism of the current system is the high 10% threshold necessary to gain seats and also that all votes cast for parties receiving below 10% are transferred to the winning party. In January 2015, the CHP renewed their parliamentary proposals to lower the threshold to 3% and proposed no changes to the proportional representation system, though the AKP are against lowering the threshold without wider electoral reform.^[15][16]

In July 2013, the AKP prepared new proposals, named the 'narrow district system' (darağıltılmış bölge sistemi), to change the proportional representation system into either a first-past-the-post system or create smaller constituencies which elect a fewer number of MPs.^[17] Under these proposals, the threshold would fall from 10% to either 7 or 8% while Turkey would be split into 129 electoral districts rather than the existing 85.^[18][19] İstanbul itself would have been split into 17 or 20 districts.^[18] The system will benefit the largest party as well as parties that are the strongest in certain regions, meaning that the AKP and Kurdish nationalist Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) would make the biggest gains. The two main opposition parties CHP and MHP do not have a substantial number of electoral strongholds, meaning that they would be negatively impacted by a narrow-district system.^[17] Proposals by the AKP to create a full first-past-the-post system with 550 single-member constituencies were allegedly unveiled in December 2014, though any change in electoral law would have to be passed by parliament at least a year before the election.^[20] The AKP's proposals for reform have raised concerns about gerrymandering.^[18]

Electoral districts

Turkey is split into 85 electoral districts, which elect a certain number of Members to the Grand National Assembly of Turkey. The Grand National Assembly has a total of 550 seats, which each electoral district allocated a certain number of MPs in proportion to their population. The Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey conducts population reviews of each district before the election and can increase or decrease a district's number of seats according to their electorate.

In all but three cases, electoral districts share the same name and borders of the 81 Provinces of Turkey, with the exception of İzmir İstanbul and Ankara. Provinces electing between 19 and 36 MPs are split into two electoral districts, while any province electing above 36 MPs are divided into three. As the country's three largest provinces, İzmir and Ankara are divided into two subdistricts while İstanbul is divided into three. The distribution of elected MPs per electoral district is shown below.^[21]

District MPs Adana 14 Adıyaman 5 Afyonkarahisar 5 Ağrı 4 Aksaray 3 Amasya 3 Ankara 32 Ankara (I) 18 Ankara (II) 14 Antalya 14 Ardahan 2 Artvin 2 Aydın 7

District MPs Balıkesir 8 Bartın 2 Batman 4 Bayburt 2 Bilecik 2 Bingöl 3 Bitlis 3 Bolu 3 Burdur 3 Bursa 18 Çanakkale 4 Çankırı 2 Çorum 4

District MPs Denizli 7 Diyarbakır 11 Düzce 3 Edirne 3 Elazığ 4 Erzincan 2 Erzurum 6 Eskişehir 6 Gaziantep 12 Giresun 4 Gümüşhane 2 Hakkâri 3 Hatay 10

District MPs Iğdır 2 Isparta 4 İstanbul 88 İstanbul (I) 31 İstanbul (II) 26 İstanbul (III) 31 İzmir 26 İzmir (I) 13 İzmir (II) 13 Kahramanmaraş 8 Kars 3 Kastamonu 3 Karabük 2

District MPs Karaman 2 Kayseri 9 Kilis 2 Kırklareli 3 Kırıkkale 3 Kırşehir 2 Kocaeli 11 Konya 14 Kütahya 4 Malatya 6 Manisa 9 Mardin 6 Mersin 11

District MPs Muğla 6 Muş 3 Nevşehir 3 Niğde 3 Ordu 5 Osmaniye 4 Rize 3 Sakarya 7 Samsun 9 Siirt 3 Sinop 2 Sivas 5 Şanlıurfa 12

District MPs Şırnak 4 Tekirdağ 6 Tokat 5 Trabzon 6 Tunceli 2 Uşak 3 Van 8 Yalova 2 Yozgat 4 Zonguldak 5 Total 550

Changes since 2011

A total of eight electoral districts had their number of MPs adjusted since the 2011 general election by the electoral council, as listed below. The two electoral districts of Ankara also had their boundaries changed.^[21]

District 2011 2015 change Ankara 31 32 1 Ankara (I) 16 18 2 Ankara (II) 15 14 1 Bayburt 1 2 1 Elazığ 5 4 1 İstanbul 85 88 3 İstanbul (I) 30 31 1

District 2011 2015 change İstanbul (II) 27 26 1 İstanbul (III) 28 31 3 Kütahya 5 4 1 Manisa 10 9 1 Muş 4 3 1 Ordu 6 5 1

Votes required per MP by province

The number of voters in each province was announced on 17 May 2015.^[22] In total, there are 53,741,838 voters in the provinces, which corresponds to 97,712 voters for each MP. However, because of the electoral system, this was not distributed equally to the provinces. In İzmir, where voters per MP was the highest, 118,669 votes corresponded to an MP, whereas in Bayburt, 27,089 voters were represented by an MP.

Two factors caused this more than fourfold disparity.^[23] Namely, the electoral law favours provinces smaller in size, which caused İzmir, İstanbul and Ankara, Turkey's largest cities and provinces, to have the least representation per voter. Secondly, the distribution of MPs to provinces was based not on the number of eligible voters, but on total population, which made each vote more valuable in provinces with a young population. For example, the HDP stronghold Hakkari with 154,705 voters got 3 MPs, whereas Yalova with 166,060 voters got 2 MPs. Similarly, Van, another HDP stronghold with 596,809 voter got 8 MPs, whereas Muğla, a CHP stronghold with 665,608 voters got 6 MPs. In Şanlıurfa where AKP and HDP are strong, there were 12 MPs per 974,219 voters, whereas in Manisa, where CHP and MHP perform better than average, votes of 1,006,697 voters determined only 9 MPs. Yusuf Halaçoğlu's bill which would partly mitigate this disparity was rejected in the parliament.^[24]

Parliamentary arithmetic

In order to form a government, a party needs a simple majority in the Grand National Assembly in order to obtain a confidence vote to govern. In order to pursue constitutional changes, a party needs either a three-fifths majority or a two-thirds majority, which give the government different powers. These are documented in the table below.

• 276 seats – Form a government
• 330 seats – Put proposed constitutional changes to a referendum (three-fifths majority)
• 367 seats – Change the constitution without a referendum (two-thirds majority)

Contesting parties

Parties eligible

On 1 February, the Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey announced that 32 parties fit the criteria in order to field candidates in the general election. In order to be eligible, parties need to have formed local organisations at least six months before the election and have completed their party congresses by the election. Furthermore, they need local party offices in at least half of the 81 Provinces of Turkey. The eligible parties who are intending to contest the election by fielding partisan candidates are listed as follows.

Party Leader ANAPAR Anatolia Party Emine Ülker Tarhan MEP Centre Party Abdurrahim Karslı KP Communist Party Özlem Şen Abay MYP Conservative Ascension Party Ahmet Reyiz Yılmaz DP Democrat Party Gültekin Uysal DSP Democratic Left Party Masum Türker DGP Democratic Progress Party İdris Bal SP Felicity Party Mustafa Kamalak İLK First Party Eran Tapan HÜDA-PAR Free Cause Party Zekeriya Yapıcıoğlu ÖDP Freedom and Solidarity Party Alper Taş BBP Great Union Party Mustafa Destici YURT-P Homeland Party Sadettin Tantan BTP Independent Turkey Party Haydar Baş AKP Justice and Development Party Ahmet Davutoğlu EMEP Labour Party Selma Gürkan

Party Leader LDP Liberal Democrat Party Cem Toker MP Nation Party Aykut Edibali MİLAD Nation and Justice Party Mehmet Bozdemir MHP Nationalist Movement Party Devlet Bahçeli VP Patriotic Party Doğu Perinçek HYP People's Ascent Party Ragıp Önder Günay HTKP People's Communist Party of Turkey Umut Kuruç HKP People's Liberation Party Nurullah Ankut HDP Peoples' Democratic Party Selahattin Demirtaş CHP Republican People's Party Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu HEPAR Rights and Equality Party Osman Pamukoğlu HAK-PAR Rights and Freedoms Party Fehmi Demir HAP Rights and Justice Party Yiğit Zeki Öztürk TURK-P Social Reconciliation Reform and Development Party Ahmet Eyüp Özgüç DYP True Path Party Çetin Özaçıkgöz GP Young Party Cem Uzan

Parties fielding candidates

Parties that intended to contest the election were required to hand their candidate lists to the Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey (YSK) by 5pm local time on 7 April. 20 parties presented candidate lists before the deadline, while another, the First Party, was delayed by 22 minutes due to a traffic accident.^[25] The parties are listed below according to their position on the ballot paper.

The numer of electoral districts in which the party is fielding candidates is shown in brackets after the party's name.

Ballot #	Party			Leader	Position	Ideology	Districts contested
1		DYP	True Path Party	Çetin Özaçıkgöz	Centre right	Economic liberalism	56
2		ANAPAR	Anatolia Party	Emine Ülker Tarhan	Centre left	Kemalism	85
3		HAK-PAR	Rights and Freedoms Party	Fehmi Fırat	Left wing	Kurdish nationalism	75
4		KP	Communist Party	Özlem Şen Abay	Far left	Communism	85
5		MP	Nation Party	Aykut Edibali	Centre right	Turkish nationalism	85
6		HAP	Rights and Justice Party	Yiğit Zeki Öztürk	Centre	Social Justice	43
7		MEP	Centre Party	Abdurrahim Karslı	Centre	Centrism	73
8		TURK-P	Social Reconciliation Reform and Development Party	Ahmet Eyüp Özgüç	Centre	Centrism	55
9		HKP	People's Liberation Party	Nurullah Ankut	Left wing	Socialism	85
10		LDP	Liberal Democrat Party	Cem Toker	Centre right	Liberalism	58
11		MHP	Nationalist Movement Party	Devlet Bahçeli	Right wing	Turkish nationalism	85
12		HDP	Peoples' Democratic Party	Selahattin Demirtaş	Left wing	Democratic socialism	85
13		SP	Felicity Party (National Alliance with the BBP)	Mustafa Kamalak	Far right	Islamism	85
14		CHP	Republican People's Party	Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu	Centre left	Social democracy	85
15		AKP	Justice and Development Party	Ahmet Davutoğlu	Right wing	Conservative democracy	85
16		DSP	Democratic Left Party	Masum Türker	Centre left	Social democracy	85
17		YURT-P	Homeland Party	Saadettin Tantan	Centre right	Turkish nationalism	56
18		DP	Democrat Party	Gültekin Uysal	Centre right	Economic liberalism	85
19		VP	Patriotic Party	Doğu Perinçek	Left wing	Left-wing nationalism	85
20		BTP	Independent Turkey Party	Haydar Baş	Centre right	Conservatism	85

Parties contesting as independents

Since the parliamentary threshold of 10% does not apply to independent candidates, parties who poll significantly below the threshold may contest the election by fielding their candidates as independents in order to increase their chances of getting elected. This was a tactic employed by Kurdish nationalist parties during the 2007 and 2011 election. In the latter, the Peace and Democracy Party candidates won 5.67% of the vote and 35 were elected since they contested the election as independents and rejoined the BDP shortly after taking their seats.

The following parties have expressed intention of fielding independent candidates for the election.

Party			Leader
	HEPAR	Rights and Equality Party	Osman Pamukoğlu
	HÜDA-PAR	Free Cause Party	Zekeriya Yapıcıoğlu

Potential coalitions and pre-election alliances

Polls show that the AKP, CHP, MHP and potentially the HDP are the parties most likely to enter parliament during the election. A poll also showed the Anatolia Party polling close to the 10% parliamentary threshold at 8.04%, though more recent polls have not shown the party to command significant support. Any party winning below 10% of the vote does not gain any parliamentary representation and has their votes reallocated to the winning party's vote share, giving them a large winners bonus. If the HDP does enter parliament, no party is likely to win an outright majority.

A coalition government has been widely considered as a potential outcome to this election and would be the first such government since the 1999. Foreign embassies in Turkey have expressed their expectation for a coalition while speculation in the media has centred over the possible make-up of the incoming government.^[26] In April, the CHP announced that it could form a coalition with any party that supports judicial independence and the separation of powers and hinted at a possible CHP-MHP-HDP coalition, since all three parties are fiercely critical of the governing AKP.^[27] It was perceived to be unlikely that the MHP and HDP, which are right-wing Turkish nationalist and left-wing Kurdish nationalist parties respectively, would join a coalition together.^[28] This was confirmed when MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli recommended that those who suggested such a coalition to 'see a doctor'.^[29] However, the MHP formed a coalition with the centre-left Democratic Left Party in 1999 and fielded a joint presidential candidate with the centre-left CHP in 2014, making a potential coalition with the CHP a possibility. The HDP have also signalled a potential coalition with the CHP, though co-leader Selahattin Demirtaş staunchly rejected any electoral alliance between them.^[30]

The AKP are widely expected to negotiate with the HDP in order to put a series of constitutional changes to a referendum. In order to do so, the government would need 330 votes in parliament, which the AKP are unlikely to win if the HDP gains representation. A confidence-and-supply agreement with the HDP in such situations where more than a majority vote in parliament is needed is therefore expected.^[31] In the event that such an agreement breaks down, the MHP have a history of helping out the AKP, most notably during the 2007 presidential election. An AKP-MHP coalition is therefore also a possibility.

The centre-left Democratic Left Party (DSP) has said that it would consider joining a coalition with the CHP should it win representation in Parliament, though has ruled out a pre-election alliance deal that the two parties had made in the 2007 general election.^[32] The Patriotic Party (VP) has proposed a merger with the CHP on the condition that it stood up for the 6 principles of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, though the CHP has said it would not take such proposals seriously.^[33] Two minor parties, namely the Revolutionary People's Party (DHP) and Socialist Workers' Party of Turkey (TSİP) backed the CHP.^[34] In the event that ANAPAR does enter parliament, a triple CHP-MHP-ANAPAR coalition is also likely.^[35]

According to the newspaper Cumhuriyet, a senior CHP politician was quoted as saying that an AKP-CHP coalition with Abdullah Gül as AKP leader is a potential eventuality.^[36] Gül, who was President of Turkey from 2007 to 2014, was known for his mediating stance in contrast to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's controversial and allegedly polarising speeches at times of political crisis.

The Nationalist Movement Party claimed that they would consider an electoral alliance with the Felicity Party (SP) and the Great Union Party (BBP), but said nothing regarding the Conservative Ascension Party (MYP), which had long called for a union of nationalist parties.^[37] In the end, the MHP decided not to pursue a formal electoral alliance, but said it was open to defectors from any party.^[38] The BBP has since decided to contest the election under the SP banner, and will thus be absent from the ballot papers. The Nation and Justice Party (MİLAD) planned to join the SP and BBP,^[39] but it did not actualise.^[40] The new electoral alliance between these parties was named the National Alliance (Millî İttifak). The candidate lists were drawn up such that BBP candidates were placed top in electoral districts in which they won more votes than the SP in 2011, while SP candidates were placed top in provinces in which the SP had beaten the BBP in 2011. This meant that an SP candidate was placed first in 55 provinces, while a BBP candidate was placed first in 30. The remaining positions subsequently alternated between SP and BBP candidates.^[41]

The True Path Party (DYP) has expressed its intention to form an alliance with six other parties in order to overcome the 10% election threshold.^[42] The party's leader Çetin Özaçıkgöz met with the leaders of the Centre Party, Rights and Equality Party (HEPAR) and the Great Union Party (BBP).^[42]

MPs standing down

This list only contains MPs who have not applied for renomination. MPs of the 24th Parliament who applied to become candidates but failed to make it onto their party's lists are not included.

AKP three-term limit

An AKP by-law dictates that members of parliament can only serve 3 successive terms from AKP lists. Therefore, 70 of AKP's 312 MPs will have to stand down in the 2015 elections, which includes 9 members of the Davutoğlu Cabinet and other prominent AKP people who have been MPs since 2002.^[43]

Ömer Çelik, Adana Mehmet Necati Çetinkaya, Adana Ali Küçükaydın, Adana Sait Açba, Afyonkarahisar Ruhi Açıkgöz, Aksaray Ali Rıza Alaboyun, Aksaray Ali Babacan, Ankara (I) Reha Denemeç, Ankara (I) Bülent Gedikli, Ankara (I) Cemil Çiçek, Ankara (II) Cevdet Erdöl, Ankara (II) Haluk İpek, Ankara (II) Salih Kapusuz, Ankara (II) Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, Antalya Mehmet Vecdi Gönül, Antalya Fahrettin Poyraz, Bilecik Vahit Kiler, Bitlis Bayram Özçelik, Burdur

Bülent Arınç, Bursa Mehmet Danış, Çanakkale Murat Yıldırım, Çorum Mehmet Mehdi Eker, Diyarbakır Recep Akdağ, Erzurum Hüseyin Çelik, Gaziantep Mehmet Sarı, Gaziantep Nurettin Canikli, Giresun Sadullah Ergin, Hatay Mustafa Ataş, İstanbul (I) Egemen Bağış, İstanbul (I) Nimet Baş, İstanbul (II) Burhan Kuzu, İstanbul (II) Abdülkadir Aksu, İstanbul (III) Halide İncekara, İstanbul (III) Ünal Kaçır, İstanbul (III) Mehmet Sayım Tekelioğlu, İzmir (I) Binali Yıldırım, İzmir (II)

Nevzat Pakdil, Kahramanmaraş Mehmet Ali Şahin, Karabük Mevlüt Akgün, Karaman Hakkı Köylü, Kastamonu Mustafa Elitaş, Kayseri Sadık Yakut, Kayseri Taner Yıldız, Kayseri Beşir Atalay, Kırıkkale Muzaffer Baştopçu, Kocaeli Nihat Ergün, Kocaeli Kerim Özkul, Konya Harun Tüfekçi, Konya Soner Aksoy, Kütahya Hasan Fehmi Kinay, Kütahya Hüseyin Tanrıverd, Manisa Durdu Mehmet Kasdal, Osmaniye Nusret Bayraktar, Rize Hayati Yazıcı, Rize

Hasan Ali Çelik, Sakarya Şaban Dişli, Sakarya Ayhan Sefer Üstün, Sakarya Cemal Yılmaz Demir, Samsun Mustafa Demir, Samsun Suat Kılıç, Samsun Ahmet Yeni, Samsun Afif Demirkıran, Siirt Yahya Akman, Şanlıurfa Faruk Çelik, Şanlıurfa Tevfik Ziyaeddin Akbulut, Tekirdağ Zeyid Aslan, Tokat Şükrü Ayala, Tokat Faruk Nafız Özak, Trabzon Bekir Bozdağ, Yozgat Köksal Toptan, Zonguldak

HDP two-term limit

The HDP party constitution imposes a two-term limit on elected members who have served under the banner of the HDP or its predecessor BDP. This means that eight HDP MPs who served throughout the 24th Parliament cannot stand for re-election. The members who are barred from standing due to the two-term limit are as follows.^[44]

Aysel Tuğluk, Van Emine Ayna, Diyarbakır Ayla Akat Ata, Batman Bengi Yıldız, Batman

Sebahat Tuncel, İstanbul (I) İbrahim Binici, Şanlıurfa Hasip Kaplan, Şırnak Özdal Üçer, Van

MPs not seeking re-election

AKP[45] Erdoğan Bayraktar, Trabzon Zafer Çağlayan, Mersin[46] Ömer Dinçer, İstanbul (III) Gürsoy Erol, İstanbul (I) Azize Sibel Gönül, Kocaeli Muammer Güler, Mardin[47] Nursuna Memecan, Sivas Yıldırım Mehmet Ramazanoğlu, Kahramanmaraş Mehmet Kerim Yıldız, Ağrı

CHP[48] Hüseyin Aygün, Tunceli Aykan Erdemir, Bursa Oğuz Oyan, İzmir (I) Alaattin Yüksel, İzmir (II) Oktay Ekşi, İstanbul (III) Şevki Kulkuloğlu, Kayseri Sabahat Akkiraz, İstanbul (III)[49] Osman Aydın, Aydın Kemal Ekinci, Bursa Mehmet Haberal, Zonguldak Osman Kaptan, Antalya Turhan Tayan, Bursa Binnaz Toprak, İstanbul (III) İhsan Kalkavan, Samsun Süheyl Batum, Eskişehir

MHP[50] Tunca Toskay, Antalya Enver Erdem, Elazığ Sinan Oğan, Iğdır Engin Alan, İstanbul (I) Sümer Oral, Manisa Reşat Doğru, Tokat

Independents Nazmi Haluk Özdalga, Ankara (I) Hasan Hami Yıldırım, Budur İdris Bal, Kütahya İhsan Barutçu, İstanbul (III) Muhammed Çetin, İstanbul (I) Birgül Ayman Güler, İzmir (II) Ertuğrul Günay, İzmir (I) Erdal Kalkan, İzmir (II) Ahmet Öksüzkaya, Kayseri

Campaigns

On 5 January 2015, the Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey announced that the general election would take place on 7 June and also released a decision in regards to the process for standing as a candidate. Senior judicial officials including judges, municipal mayors, municipal and provincial councillors and senior members of any public supervisory board must present their resignation or retirement applications to their employer by 10 February 2015 in order to be eligible to stand.^[51]

On 20 January, the Supreme Electoral Council ruled that candidates wishing to stand as an independent must resign any party memberships they may hold.^[52]

Justice and Development Party (AKP)

Prime Minister Erdoğan, who was re-elected for a third time in the 2011 general election, was barred from standing as an MP for a fourth term by the AKP's by-laws. Erdoğan became his party's presidential candidate for the 2014 presidential election and won narrowly in the first round with 51.79% of the vote. His ascension to the presidency required him to sever all ties with political parties and step down from parliament, requiring the AKP to elect a new leader. Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu was announced as a candidate for the leadership by the party's Central Executive Committee on 21 August and was unanimously elected unopposed during the party's 1st Extraordinary Congress held on 27 August.

The AKP has publicly targeted 330 seats in order to be able to submit constitutional changes to a referendum. With drafting a new constitution being a central part of the AKP's manifesto, the party is expected to promote a presidential system and an advancement in the Solution process with Kurdish rebels in a new constitution. Critics have aruged that such efforts would lead to a further decline in the separation of powers and democratic checks and balances, while the AKP has argued that the current constitution is outdated. Despite being constitutionally barred from being partisan, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made several statements in the lead-up to the election that set the AKP's electoral targets higher at 400 MPs, though even pro-AKP polling organisations show that such an eventuality is highly unlikely.^[53] Announcing the party's manifesto on 15 April, Davutoğlu claimed that his party aimed to win 55% of the votes, and criticised Kılıçdaroğlu for his target of 35%.^[54]

Due to the AKP by-law that had barred Erdoğan from standing for a third term, 70 other AKP MPs who had served since 2002 were also unable to contest the election. The AKP continued its policy of renewing its parliamentary candidates by deselecting 105 of its serving MPs, notably including controversial Balıkesir MP Tülay Babuşcu. 99 of the AKP's 550 parliamentary candidates were women.^[55] Notable yet unsuccessful applicants were singer İbrahim Tatlıses, former model Tuğçe Kazaz, Ankara Mayor Melih Gökçek's son Osman Gökçek and former Undersecretary to the National Intelligence Organisation (MİT) Hakan Fidan.^[56][57] President Erdoğan's son-in-law and former CHP leader Deniz Baykal's chief advisor were selected as AKP candidates.^[58]

In the run-up to the election, the media observed a potential disagreement between the AKP government and President Erdoğan, with Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç openly criticising Erdoğan's comments on the ongoing Solution process with Kurdish rebels.^[59] Erdoğan's allegedly critical stance on government policy was widely perceived to be an attempt to win back nationalist voters who had defected to the MHP.^[60] A polemic subsequently took place between Arınç and Ankara Mayor Melih Gökçek, with Gökçek demanding the former's resignation for criticising the President and accusing him of being a follower of Fethullah Gülen. Despite a statement from Prime Minister Davutoğlu warning both men to end their arguments, Arınç made a statement accusing Gökçek of bringing personal and family issues into the political sphere and attempting to secure parliamentary candidacy for his son, for which he would not respect the Prime Minister's demands.^[61] The Ankara Attorney General began a criminal investigation into both individuals, though Arınç has parliamentary immunity from prosecution until the election.^[62]

The party's manifesto emphasises the need for an updated, civil constitution and a presidential system. Turkish nationalists particularly criticised the party's apparent commitment to remove the word 'Turk' from the constitution.^[63] The manifesto was accompanied by a 100-point 'New Turkey Contract' that outlined the party's key constitutional amendment proposals.^[64] Other policies included raising pensions, investing in infrastructure, continue developing the Kanal Istanbul project and expand Turkey's high speed rail system and 4G coverage despite President Erdoğan's insistence that 4G would be a waste of time.^[65] The manifesto also commits to a greater foreign policy role in the Middle East and North Africa and continuing to aim for European Union membership.^[66] The party will hold its first electoral rally in Erzurum on 25 April.^[67]

Republican People's Party (CHP)

The party leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu stated that his party would lead the next government if they won 35% of the vote. This indicates a 9% rise since the 2011 general election.^[3] Kılıçdaroğlu had been re-elected as leader during the party's 18th Extraordinary Convention held in September 2014, which had been convened after the party's poor performance in the 2014 local elections and the 2014 presidential election.

Candidate applications ended on 2 March 2015 with 2,822 applications. Party lists were selected either by the party leader or though preliminary elections that were held in 51 provinces.^[68][69] Kılıçdaroğlu himself decided to contest preliminary elections in İzmir's 2nd electoral district. Candidates who applied for selection by the party leadership were chosen in early April. Key candidates such as Kamer Genç, Hüseyin Aygün and Umut Oran failed to make the party lists. A female Armenian candidate and a Romani candidate were both amongst the CHP lists, with the potential to become the first female Armenian and Romani MP in the history of the Turkish Republic.^[70]

The CHP has expressed interest in negotiating with the left-wing HDP as well as other left-wing parties such as the Labour Party (EMEP) and the Freedom and Solidarity Party (ÖDP). Despite this, CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu identified the HDP as a threat to the party's support base during a Central Executive Committee meeting on 29 January and has sought to take 'measures' against the HDP.^[71] The ÖDP has ruled out negotiating with the CHP while the EMEP leader Selma Gürkan has stressed the importance of doing so.^[72] Despite key HDP leaders being opposed to talks with the CHP, the party's deputy leader Sezgin Tanrıkulu was allegedly engaged in closed negotiations with the HDP so that the talks do not generate controversy within the party's parliamentary group or voters.

In March 2015, a document allegedly regarding a closure case against the Republican People's Party was leaked online, causing many opposition politicians to accuse the AKP of attempting to eliminate competition through anti-democratic practices.^[73][74] The party's leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu confirmed the claims, stating that he had known about the preparations for a closure case for some time. AKP leader Ahmet Davutoğlu denied the claims and called for Kılıçdaroğlu to meet with him to put forward a constitutional amendment that would make it impossible for a political party to be shut down by the courts.^[75]

The government has consistently accused the CHP of allegedly maintaining links with exiled cleric Fethullah Gülen and his Cemaat Movement. A former ally of the AKP and widely known for his influence in the Turkish judiciary, Gülen had allegedly sought to increase influence over the CHP after falling out with Erdoğan in 2013. The difference between Gülen's Islamist and the CHP's secular ideology resulted in inner-party controversy and led to the resignation of İzmir MP Birgül Ayman Güler in January 2015.^[76] The party voiced support Bank Asya, a pro-Gülen bank that the AKP government attempted to shut down in 2014 and also applied to visit the head of the pro-Gülen Samanyolu TV in Silivri Prison.^[77]

The CHP planned 50 electoral rallies throughout Turkey in what Kılıçdaroğlu styled as a 'meeting marathon' (Miting maratonu). During visits to different provinces, Kılıçdaroğlu is also due to make unplanned visits to town centres and other public places to meet with voters directly. Special measures were taken for people with disabilities, with the party accompanying its televised electoral rallies with sign language.^[78] The party's inaugural electoral rally was held on 11 April in the Kartal district of İstanbul. The rally was styled as the 'National Applause rally' (Milletçe Alkışlıyoruz mitingi). During the rally, Kılıçdaroğlu appeared to unveil a new slogan, 'Do not be afraid, do not give up, do not cower' (Korkmayın, yılmayın, sinmeyin).^[79] The CHP has also targeted to win votes from the centre-right.^[80][81]

The CHP manifesto announced on 19 April includes measures to increase disability benefits, the minimum wage to ₺1,500 and to extend general health insurance to 3.2 million people in order to combat poverty. A significant pledge made by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, signed by a notary, is to grant payouts to pensioners twice a year on Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha. The party also planned to abolish the controversial 'Taşeron' workers contract in order to guarantee workers' rights. The party aims to lower inflation to 4% and unemployment to 5%.^[82]

Nationalist Movement Party (MHP)

The MHP has implemented one of the lowest application fees of any party for potential candidates. Between 12 and 18 March, all male, female and disabled citizens wishing to apply had to pay a fee of ₺2,000. The MHP had charged ₺2,500 in the 2011 general election.^[83] In response to plans to build a hotel in a greenfield site at İstinye in İstanbul, the MHP organised a seed-planting protest in the area In January. Actor Mehmet Aslan allegedly declared his potential candidacy during the event.^[84][85]

The MHP's manifesto pledged to extend education to nine years and to end the Solution process with Kurdish militants. In their constitutional reform proposals, the party promised to keep a constitutional reference to the Turkish ethnicity while not allowing other minorities to obtain constitutional recognition. Pressing for a manufacturing based economy, the MHP has also pledged to investigate every individual involved in the 2013 government corruption scandal and to establish an anti-corruption commission to lead the investigation. The MHP has also promised a strong response to terrorism.^[86]

Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP)

Emboldened by the 9.77% of the vote won by Peoples' Democratic Party co-leader Selahattin Demirtaş in the 2014 presidential election, The HDP is due to contest the election by fielding party candidates rather than independent candidates by the order of Abdullah Öcalan. This has been controversial since all of the HDP's votes would be transferred to the AKP in the event that the HDP fails to win above 10% of the vote. There has been speculation as to whether the AKP forced Öcalan to pressure the HDP to contest the election as a party in order to boost their own number of MPs.^[87] The party charged a ₺2,000 application fee for prospective male candidates, a ₺1,000 fee for female and young candidates under the age of 27 and no fee was collected from disabled applicants. Applications for candidacy were received between 16 February and 2 March.^[83]

According to Habertürk, the party has proposed to field Kurdish candidates in the west and Turkish candidates in the east, which is the opposite of the demographic make-up of the country. The party is also expected to increase its popularity by offering candidacies to famous individuals, such as actor Kadir İnanır.^[88] According to a private poll conducted by the HDP in January 2015, the party needs to gather around 600,000 more supporters by the general election in order to surpass the election threshold of 10% and win 72 MPs.^[89][90] Polling organisations such as Metropoll, however, prodict that the party would win around 55 MPs if they won more than 10%.^[91] It is hoped by HDP candidates that the victory of the left-wing SYRIZA in the 2015 Greek legislative election in January would result in a boost in popularity.^[92]

In order to maximise their votes, the party's co-leader Figen Yüksekdağ has announced that the HDP will begin negotiations with the United June Movement, a socialist intellectual and political platform that includes left-wing parties such as the Freedom and Solidarity Party (ÖDP) and the Labour Party (EMEP). Negotiations between parties began taking place in early 2015, with the intention of forming a broad alliance rather than a strict political coalition. Although Yüksekdağ ruled out negotiating with the CHP since they were 'closed to dialogue' and Demirtaş was opposed to negotiations, CHP deputy leader Sezgin Tanrıkulu said that the CHP was open for talks and that the two parties had until 7 April to come to an agreement.^[72] In the end, no such initiative was taken.

In the party's manifesto, the HDP has pledged to create a Ministry of Women and to establish 8 March International Women's Day as a national holiday. The party also promised to abolish the Presidency of Religious Affairs and the Council of Higher Education while reforming the university examination system to make universities more democratic and affordable. The party has also proposed policies to counter homophobia, to open the border with Armenia, to stop all investment into nuclear power, to raise the minimum wage to ₺1,800, reduce the maximum weekly working hours to 35, to establish a co-Prime Ministerial system for parties with more than one leader and to introduce elections to elect provincial governors (currently appointed by the government).^[93] On the issue of a presidential system, HDP co-leader Selahattin Demirtaş stated that the HDP would never support such a constitutional change, adding that he had always firmly opposed a presidential system despite allegations that the HDP had agreed to support the AKP on the matter behind closed doors.^[31][94][95]

Conduct

Ballot boxes

On 28 October 2014, the Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey determined that one ballot box would be used per 360-380 voters, while villages that had a population of less than 400 would be able to collectively vote using one ballot box.^[96]

Overseas voting

The Supreme Electoral Council scrapped the appointment-voting system that had been used in 2014 presidential election, where overseas citizens needed to book an appointment at a consulate to cast their votes. The system was blamed for the unexpectedly low turnout of less than 10% overseas compared to the 74.13% within Turkey. According to the new decision by the Council, overseas voters will be able to cast their votes up to 24 days before the actual general election within Turkey takes place without booking an appointment.^[97]

Votes cast overseas will be counted in Turkey and will be distributed throughout each electoral district in proportion to turnout.

Opinion polling

Opinion polling for the 2015 general election

Results

Summary of the results of the Turkish general election, 2015
Party	Justice and Development Party (AKP)	Republican People's Party (CHP)	Nationalist Movement Party (MHP)	Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP)
Leader	Ahmet Davutoğlu	Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu	Devlet Bahçeli	Selahattin Demirtaş Figen Yüksekdağ
Total votes
Seats won
	0 / 550	0 / 550	0 / 550	0 / 550

Parliamentary composition

The following table reflects the composition of the 24th parliament elected in 2011, the composition of the 24th parliament at dissolution and the composition of the elected 25th parliament.

Party			24th Parliament (12 June 2011 – 4 April 2015)			25th Parliament (7 June 2015 – )
			2011 vote %	Elected	At dissolution	Elected
	AKP	Justice and Development Party	49.83	327 / 550	312 / 550	TBD
	CHP	Republican People's Party	25.98	135 / 550	125 / 550	TBD
	MHP	Nationalist Movement Party	13.01	53 / 550	52 / 550	TBD
		Independents	6.57	35 / 550	12 / 550	TBD
	HDP	Peoples' Democratic Party	New Party		29 / 550	TBD
	DBP	Democratic Regions Party*	Contested as independents		1 / 550	Not contesting
	MİLAD	Nation and Justice Party	New Party		1 / 550	Not contesting
	ANAPAR	Anatolia Party	New Party		1 / 550	TBD
	eP	Electronic Democracy Party	New Party		1 / 550	Not contesting
	MEP	Centre Party	New Party		1 / 550	TBD
Total			95.39	550	535^	550
* The Democratic Regions Party was known as the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) in 2011 and fielded candidates as independents to bypass the 10% threshold. The Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) will contest the 2015 general election on their behalf. ^15 seats have been vacated during the 24th Parliament (4 deaths, 10 elected mayors, 1 elected president).

Electoral fraud

Electoral fraud in Turkey has usually been most extensive during local elections, where individual votes have significantly larger impact in determining local administrations. Although the 2014 presidential election saw little evidence of electoral misconduct, issues regarding voter records as well as extensive media bias have been controversial issues that have remained largely unaddressed.^[98] In both the local and presidential elections in 2014, several voters reported that ballot papers had been sent to addresses that are wrong or do not exist as well as voters that have been dead for a substantial amount of time.^[99][100]

In March 2015, an unnamed AKP source close to one of the party's deputy leaders Süleyman Soylu revealed that his party had staged electoral fraud during the 2014 local elections and claimed that several AKP employees were uncomfortable with their tactics. The source claimed that the party had a 5-point plan for every election.

• The use of bogus opinion polls
• The intentional miscalculation of votes during counting, resulting in incorrect results being recorded and sent to the electoral council
• The bribery or threatening of returning officers to stop the miscounting being reported to the authorities
• The misleading announcement of the AKP's scale of victory early on in the election night to demotivate opposition counting observers and incentivising them to abandon the ballot boxes
• The use of fake addresses and dead people as voters

The source also confirmed that the sharp rise in electricity cuts during election nights were deliberate and were intended to disrupt the counting process.^[101][102]

Pre-election campaigning restrictions

On 3 March, the governor of İzmir took a series of decisions curbing the ability of citizens to protest against the 'established order', limiting freedom of expression and limiting all forms of political propaganda and demonstrations to written statements only. The İzmir Bars Association stated that they would appeal against the decisions, accusing them of being undemocratic and counterproductive.^[103] The decisions were later reversed by the governor's office amid heavy protests on social media.^[104]

Overprinting of ballot papers

In preparation for the election, the Supreme Electoral Council ordered the printing of 73,988,955 ballot papers despite a domestic electorate of about 53 million. 897,000 of these ballot papers were to be sent to 33 customs gates for voters voting at the border or airports, while 2,917,200 were printed for Turkish expats voting abroad. The significantly large number of ballot papers printed despite the total electorate renewed controversy that had been caused during the 2014 local and presidential elections, where opposition candidates voiced concerns about how spare ballot papers would be utilised.^[105][106]

Media censorship

On 7 April, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and 166 other websites were blocked for distributing the images of DHKP-C terrorists taking İstanbul prosecutor Mehmet Selim Kiraz hostage. The court responsible for the block argued that the images could be used as propaganda for the terrorist organisation and were distressing for the prosecutor's family. In addition, criminal investigations were launched into four newspapers that also features the images.^[107] The proximity of the block to the election, which bears similarity to the blocking of social media sites just weeks before the 2014 local elections, raised accusations of growing government censorship against opposition views.^[108] Allegations were also made that social media sites were blocked to stop potential incriminating evidence regarding the government's involvement in the hostage crisis from emerging.^[109]

The state-funded broadcaster Turkish Radio and Television Corporation (TRT) took the decision to not broadcast a campaign advert by the opposition CHP, because it was perceived to be openly critical of the governing AKP.^[110] The advert featured a cat walking near a transformer, seen as a reference to the AKP Minister of Energy Taner Yıldız's claims that nationwide electricity cuts during the 2014 local elections occurred due to cat entering a transformer.^[111] The TRT, which has previously been accused of pro-government bias, was accused of censorship and subsequently taken to court by the CHP.^[112] A CHP delegate to the media regulator RTÜK, Ali Öztunç, later claimed that the advert had not broken any laws and that the AKP was directly behind the censorship.^[113] A tradesman from Düzce sent the CHP to court for causing provocation and protesting rival parties by applauding, referencing the CHP's 'National Applause' themed election campaign.^[114] The individual was later discovered to be the director of public broadcasting for the pro-AKP Diriliş newspaper.^[115]

23 Turkish film-makers withdrew their films from the İstanbul Film Festival after a documentary set in PKK militant camps was withdrawn from the schedule. While the Ministry of Culture claimed that the documentary did not have the correct registration certificate, one film-maker claimed that the government were trying to increase their influence in the creative sector, similar to their record in the media sector. A documentary on the Gezi Park protests had been removed from the Antalya Golden Orange film festival in 2014.^[116]

On April 30, television presenter Cüneyt Özdemir claimed on Twitter that the press was under pressure from both financial and moral intimidation. He claimed that since he had joined the channel Kanal D he had come under increased intimidation from multiple sources, whom he said were 'scared' of a objective and neutral media.^[117]

Electricity cuts

Turkish elections have been increasingly sabotaged by electricity cuts during the vote counting process during recent years. The most recent example was the power cuts taking place on the eve of 30 March 2014, on the eve of the 2014 local elections. Energy minister Taner Yıldız caused outrage by blaming the power outages in 21 different provinces on a cat entering a transformer, which the BBC initially thought was an April fools joke.^[118] The opposition has alleged that electricity cuts on election nights are intentional and the commotion they cause is used to manipulate the counting process in the governments favour. Several whistleblowers within the AKP have also confirmed such allegations.^[102]

On 31 March, a nationwide blackout hit Turkey, causing disruption throughout the country for more than a day. The government have yet to confirm the reason behind the blackout, thought several theories by electrical engineers have proposed that such a large blackout could have been intentional or due to cyber terrorism.^[119] Opposition journalists and whistleblowers on Twitter put forward several accusations, claiming that the cuts were used to steal the passwords of the Supreme Electoral Council (YSK) or were an attempt to get voters used to electricity cuts so that a power outage on the eve of the election is not taken as a surprise.^[119]

Following the nationwide power blackout, the YSK requested electricity generators for election night.^[120]

Voting record irregulities

In Adana, the records 28,800 voters were erased from electoral register after the metropolitan municipality conducted a controversial opinion poll about peoples' voting intentions for the general election.^[121]

'Perception operation'

Following similar allegations for the 2014 local elections and 2014 presidential election, the government have been accused of continuing to conduct a 'perception operation' (algı operasyonu) before the election through the use of disputed and fake opinion polls.^[122] The term 'algı operasyonu' has since become a common political term in Turkey, symbolising political bias within the media.^[123] Polling companies in Turkey rarely include a detailed breakdown of their operations and several poll companies, such as 'Pollmark', do not have any official records of existence. Many pollsters lack official websites and instead announce poll results on Facebook or Twitter, while some companies such as 'Politic's Communication and Research' have grammatical errors in their names that place their existence in doubt.^[124] Numerous polling companies are also owned by politicians, for example the owner of ANAR is AKP former Deputy Prime Minister Beşir Atalay.

The opinion polling for the 2014 presidential election was particularly controversial, with poll results varying substantially from the actual results. One polling company, KONDA, issued a letter of apology after predicting Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's vote to be above 57% three days before the election, whereas the actual result was 51.8%.^[125] The polling for the election was criticised by the owner of another polling company, Metropoll, who accused rival companies of conducting a 'perception operation' with their polls.^[126][127] The opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) also criticised polling companies for confusing voters and being controlled by the government.^[128]

The CHP deputy leader Sezgin Tanrıkulu proposed a new law that would inflict a penalty fine on polling companies that had margins of error above 5 or 6% and declare them 'biased'. The proposed law would also impose custodial sentences on the companies' owners of between two to five years. Tanrıkulu claimed that polling companies had lost the trust of the electorate over the years and accused their inaccurate polling on contributing to a low turnout in the presidential elections.^[129] However, polling companies accused of supporting the opposition, such as SONAR, have also been accused of releasing bogus polls.^[130]

The manager of the Gezici polling organisation that works for the pro-opposition Sözcü newspaper, Murat Gezici, claimed that he had received death threats after releasing polling results that showed the AKP's vote share being below 40% in March 2015.^[131] He was later attacked outside his home.

According to several news agencies, no candidates applied to become CHP candidates in 11 electoral districts, with just one applying in four other districts.^[132] However, the CHP's spokesperson Haluk Koç later presented the lists of applications for these districts, falsifying the claims that no-one had applied. He claimed that the false stories were attempts to make the CHP look weaker prior to the election.^[133]

SEÇSİS controversy

The Supreme Electoral Council uses a system called SEÇSİS, a computer-aided central voter index system, in order to securely collect results and voter data. Its main aims are described to be to lower voter queues, allow voters to easily access information, reduce the number of complaints and also provide a basis for the eventual computerisation of voting.^[134] However, the system has received strong criticism for being susceptible to outside interference and hacking due to its use of Java.^[135] This has led to several opposition journalists and politicians to bring these claims before the Electoral Council and the Constitutional Court, accusing AKP politicians of using the system for their own gain.^[136][137] Eight months after initially being asked by CHP MPs, the Supreme Electoral Commission confirmed that the SEÇSİS system did not carry a security certificate, meaning that results entered into the system can be changed without notice.^[138]

In response to the revelations, the CHP claimed that it would take measures in order to stop the election being manipulated by SEÇSİS. The AKP MP Metin Külünk subsequently admitted that SEÇSİS had been developed under the influence of Fethullah Gülen, a common theory put forward by opposition journalists before 2013 when Gülen was aligned with the AKP.^[139] Külünk stated that due to Gülen's influence, the CHP would not have the 'luxury' to complain about SEÇSİS being used during future elections.^[140]

Following a proposal by the Liberal Democrat Party in 2014, results will now have to be uploaded to SEÇSİS as soon as possible in order to obtain results for each ballot box quicker online.^[141]

Political violence

In December 2014, a football match between the teams from the CHP-run district of Yenimahalle and the AKP-run district of Gölbaşı in Ankara was cancelled due to a breakout of violence between the two sides. The match was due to have been refereed by the nephew of an AKP MP, which had initially led to a rise in tensions.^[142]

A MHP youth wing leader and Ege University student, Fırat Yılmaz Çakıroğlu was killed by PKK militants who raided the university in Izmir on 21 February. The HDP, which originates from Kurdish nationalist parties, blamed the government for not taking necessary precautions despite repeated threats.^[143] Three people were injured after clashes broke out between Turkish nationalists and HDP supporters in Erzurum after prayers were held in Çakıroğlu's memory.^[144][145] Tensions also rose between MHP-supporting university students and HDP activists in Adıyaman.^[146]

In March 2014, the manager of the Gezici polling company Murat Gezici, who conducts an opinion polls for the pro-opposition Sözcü newspaper, was attacked by three people outside his home after revealing an opinion poll that placed the AKP's vote share below 40%. Gezici had previously stated in an interview that he had received death threats.^[133]

Attacks against political parties

Two people were arrested in connection to a shooting at the CHP district office in Maltepe, İstanbul. There were no casualties since the office was empty at the time.^[147] An armed individual was also arrested after entering the AKP Kartal district headquarters also in İstanbul with unknown intentions, shooting what was later determined to be blank rounds and hanging a Turkish flag accompanied with a sword.^[148] Later on 23 April, a CHP election campaign bus in Antalya was stoned by unknown perpetrators, smashing two windows but not causing any casualties.^[149]

On 18 April, armed men opened fire on the HDP headquarters, with two people later being taken into custody. Prime Minister Davutoğlu and President Erdoğan both condemned the attack, which occurred at 4am in the morning when the building was empty.^[150][151]

On 23 April, an armed attack on the AKP offices in Batman led to the death of the son of a former AKP Member of Parliament. The perpetrator was wounded and apprehended while trying to flee the scene. The incident was attributed to an asset-based dispute and not part of the wider political tensions.^[152]

On 24 April, an armed man waiting near a block of flats in Afyonkarahisar where Ahmet Davutoğlu's wife Sare Davutoğlu was due to visit was arrested on suspicion of a potential assassination attempt.^[153]

On 26 April, a HDP party office in Yalova was attacked by an armed gunman, who fired three shots at the office windows. Nobody was injured during the incident.^[154]

On 30 April, a HDP election stand in Uşak was approached by a mob, whom the stand's managers claimed were armed with clubs and were chanting anti-HDP slogans. Three people were injured during the ensuring fight, while the HDP leaflets and flags were burnt. The HDP activists were taken to a nearby HDP office under police escort.^[155]

DHKP-C hostage crisis

On 31 March 2015, a nationwide blackout occurred in 49 out of the 81 Provinces of Turkey, disrupting transportation systems and lasting for much of the day. It was considered the worst power blackout for 15 years.^[156] The government responded by stating that all possible causes, including terrorism, would be considered when attempting to locate the cause. At the same time, President Erdoğan claimed that the blackout showed that the country needed to invest in nuclear energy. With relations between the government and president already appearing to be waning following a public disagreement between Erdoğan and Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç, energy minister Taner Yıldız openly criticised the proposals to invest in nuclear power. His statement was perceived to be another indication that the relationship between the President and the government was widening.^[157] On 1 April, it was alleged that the electricity cut was caused intentionally by individuals loyal to Fethullah Gülen.^[158]

The blackout caused a political debate regarding possible motives, with electricity engineers alleging that such a large blackout continuing for almost a day was most likely caused intentionally.^[159] During the power-cut, two left-wing militants from the Revolutionary People's Liberation Party–Front (DHKP-C) infiltrated the Istanbul Çağlayan Justice Palace and abducted a prosecutor responsible for investigating the death of Berkin Elvan, who had been shot by police during the 2013 Gezi Park protests. The militants demanded information on the officer who shot Elvan in return for prosecutor Mehmet Selim Kiraz's release.^[160] Police forces later conducted an operation resulting in the death of the two terrorists and Kiraz, all of whom died from gunshot wounds.^[161]

The hostage crisis led to a debate about how militants managed to enter what currently is the largest courthouse in Europe with guns and flags without being stopped, as well as whether the incident and the massive power outage were related. Amid speculation that the government would use the incident to their own political gain, former Deputy Prime Minister Emrullah İşler claimed in a tweet that the militants were from the same organisation as the Gezi Park protestors in 2013.^[162] CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu later publically criticised the government for trying to associate his party with the terrorists.^[163] The mother of Şafak Yayla, one of the militants, accused the government of hiding the real perpetrators behind the hostage crisis and killing her son instead.^[164] A similar situation had occurred in January, where DHKP-C claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing, before removing this claim from their website when the perpetrator was later linked to ISIS instead.

Issues and developments

Civil liberties

The elections will be held at a time when Turkey's human rights record has come under increased domestic and international scrutiny, particularly from the European Union.^[165] The AKP's supposed commitment to human rights has thus also come under doubt, with the governments of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Ahmet Davutoğlu both presiding over controversial curbs on civil liberties since 2011. Following proposals to limit rights to protest after the Autumn 2014 Kurdish riots, critics have accused the government of turning Turkey into a police state.^[166] A long-time ban against headscarves in the civil service was abolished in 2013.

A spate of anti-government demonstrations began in May 2013 and continued throughout the year, protesting against the authoritarianism of Erdoğan, police brutality and media censorship. The government responded with what many critics perceived to be disproportionate force that claimed the lives of 22 people and injured over 8,000. Images of police using slingshots against protestors, the use of dangerous chemicals in water cannon spray and tear gas, as well as the involvement of many AKP youth wing members armed with clubs assisting the police drew particular outrage.^{[167][168][168][169]} Erdoğan responded by calling the protestors 'looters' and refused to resign as Prime Minister.

Since 2013, critics have accused media outlets of being under government control and the CHP have claimed that the AKP are the 'biggest media boss in Turkey'. A CHP party report claimed that 1,863 journalists have been fired during AKP rule.^[170] Turkey ranks first in the world in terms of imprisoned journalists, with 40 in prison according to the Committee to Protect Journalists.^[171] A new Internet law passed in 2013 has also allowed the government to block websites without court order, which was implemented in March 2014 with the banning of both Twitter and YouTube.^{[172][173][174]}

In February 2015, a 13-year-old boy was arrested after allegedly criticising President Erdoğan on Facebook.^[175] In March, a Patriotic Party youth leader was arrested for calling Erdoğan a dictator, with the prosecution requesting a prison sentence of one year and two months.^[176] Three more Twitter users were taken into custody for allegedly insulting the President and other senior government officials on 13 March.^[177]

Economy

Although Turkey boasted a period of strong economic growth after the 2008 financial crash, several forecasts for the future have been downgraded due to political turmoil and a lack of structural reforms.^[178] Economists, as well as former AKP Prime Minister and President Abdullah Gül have stressed the need for Turkey to adopt a new economic model, potentially becoming an export-led economy.^[179] In early 2015, the official unemployment rate rose above 10% for the first time in years while youth unemployment rose above 20%. The economic downturn has been attributed to Turkey's over-reliance on foreign investment to sustain growth.^[180] 20% of Turks live below the poverty line while child poverty has risen to 63.5%. Furthermore, political uncertainty has resulted in sharp falls in the Istanbul stock exchange.^[181] Regardless, the AKP government have continued investment in major infrastructure, such as the Yavuz Sultan Selim Bridge, the Ankara-Istanbul high-speed railway, the İzmit Bay Bridge currently under construction as well as the M5 metro line in İstanbul.

Pre-election giveaways have since included a government pledge to grant subsidies to first-time home buyers, contributing 15% of their savings to the purchase of their first home.^[182] Since the incoming government will be in office for four years without facing any sort of election, it is expected that large-scale structural reforms to the economy will take place after the general election.

Foreign policy

The three main parties contesting the election broadly associate themselves with significantly different outlooks on foreign policy. These are the Muslim Brotherhood-inspired Pan-Islamist or Neo-Ottoman foreign policy of the AKP, the western-orientated foreign policy of national autonomy advocated by the CHP, the Kurdish nationalist foreign policy advocated by the HDP and the pan-Turkist policy of expansionism promoted by the MHP.^{[183][184][185]} As the architect of the AKP's foreign policy outlook while serving as Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu was initially praised for redefining Turkey's international role as a regional power.^[186][187] During the latter years of his tenure, he has been criticised for his policy failures regarding the Syrian Civil War and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS).^[188]

The elections come at a time when Turkey has become increasingly isolated in the international sphere due to the AKP's insistence that Bashar Al Assad should be removed as President of Syria before giving support to the United States during their airstrikes against ISIS.^[189][190] In the 2014 UN Security council elections, Turkey lost a seat to Spain, which was seen as a sign of global disapproval against the AKP's foreign policy.^[191][192] As a result, the opposition has widely criticised the AKP's foreign policy, which they claim has resulted in growing problems with neighbours as opposed to 'zero problems with neighbours' that Davutoğlu initially hoped to achieve as Foreign Minister.^[193]

Particular foreign policy conflicts between parties have centred on the issue of Israel and the European Union. Both the AKP and CHP blame each other for being pro-Israel, with the former accusing the latter of being associated with 'pro-Israel' Islamic cleric Fethullah Gülen.^[194] The CHP has accused the AKP of increasing their business relations with Israel despite their strong anti-Israeli rhetoric.^[195] While Davutoğlu has claimed that EU membership is a strategic target for his government, accession talks have stalled and the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declared that the EU 'should mind their own business' after they condemned the mass arrest of journalists in late 2014.^{[196][197][198]}

Government corruption scandal

The AKP's election campaign has revolved around dismantling the 'parallel state' that it accuses Fethullah Gülen of using to incriminate the government in a 2013 corruption scandal. After parliament rejected an opposition-backed motion to send AKP former ministers Zafer Çağlayan, Muammer Güler, Egemen Bağış and Erdoğan Bayraktar to the Supreme Criminal Court (Turkish: Yüce Divan) on corruption charges on 21 January 2015, Ahmet Davutoğlu declared that the corruption scandal had been proven to be a coup attempt. This was despite the fact that parliament voted against the motion since the government held a majority of the seats before the election and that at least 27 AKP MPs took advantage of the anonymous voting in order to vote in favour of conviction.^[199] Several AKP MPs, such as Hakan Şükür, İdris Bal and İdris Naim Şahin had resigned following the scandal and in some cases formed their own parties.

The corruption scandal emerged when incriminating phone recordings of ministers, including Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, were published on social media. Six people have been since been accused of bugging the phones of said ministers. Although the recordings were identified as 'fakes' by the government, they failed to obtain any conclusive identification that proved the recordings to be fake. The CHP demanded the government's immediate resignation, though the then-Prime Minister Erdoğan refused to do so. The anti-corruption issue was strongly reflected in the CHP's local election campaign.

Kurdish peace process

Despite Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç claiming that AKP would not be so 'undignified' or 'dishonourable' to negotiate with terrorists in 2010, a peace process focusing on disarming the PKK separatists has been in place since December 2012 with the intention of ending a conflict ongoing since 1984. The government's negotiation with terrorists as well as the terms of the solution process has since come under heavy scrutiny.^[200] Since then, Deputy Prime Minister Yalçın Akdoğan claimed that the AKP are the owners of the solution process.^[201]

During the 2014 presidential election campaign, the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) candidate Selahattin Demirtaş criticised the government for not complying with the terms of their own solution process. The peace process nearly dissolved during the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant rebels' siege of the city of Kobanî due to the breakout of Kurdish nationalist demonstrations in protest at the government's lack of response.^[202] The death toll was estimated at over 50 people, while three soldiers were killed by the PKK.^[203] The AKP government subsequently blamed the HDP for the violence, with Davutoğlu claiming that their actions would result in the HDP losing all influence throughout the process. The government has also set up a Solution Process Council as well as a 'Board of Wise People' to oversee the ongoing efforts.^[204] During the initial formation of the parliamentary solution process commission, the CHP and MHP both boycotted the parliamentary vote that allowed the commission to be set up.^[205]

As the main opposition party, the CHP supports the notion of a peace process with separatist rebels and has called for such a process to include projects to alleviate poverty in south-east Anatolia.^[206] Closer involvement by the CHP in the peace process has been supported by HDP leader Selahattin Demirtaş, who claimed that the involvement of multiple parties in the process would increase transparency.^[207] In order to increase the party's appeal to Kurdish areas where the CHP has traditionally polled poorly, Kılıçdaroğlu began a new initiative named 'New CHP' (Yeni CHP or YCHP), which led to the opposition several nationalist MPs such as Emine Ülker Tarhan.^[208] On 29 November 2014, Kılıçdaroğlu made a speech in Diyarbakır and made a 12-point legislative proposal in regards to the solution process, which included motions to reduce the parliamentary threshold to 3%, clearing mines from land and assigning property rights to landless villagers, abolishing the village guard system and changing a new prison in Diyarbakır into a democracy museum.^[209]

In 2013, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) took several government officials, all 63 members of the 'Wise People Committee' and then-Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to court for acting unconstitutionally by negotiating with the PKK.^[210] However in December 2014, the party agreed to support the process on the condition that the PKK unconditionally disarms.^[211] Journalists have speculated that the MHP manifesto would propose to end the solution process.^[212]

Criticisms of the solution process have mainly entered around the AKP's concessions to the PKK as well as the future of their currently imprisoned leader Abdullah Öcalan. Furthermore, the creation of PKK checkpoints around south-eastern cities by separatists as well as the lowering of a Turkish flag in Diyarbakır in 2014 has also caused concern that the south-east of Anatolia was effectively becoming an independent Kurdistan.^{[213][214][215]} Opposition journalists have alleged that the PKK have continued to attack soldiers and criticised the mainstream media for not reporting their deaths.^[216]

In March 2015, Erdoğan allegedly demanded that the government should suspend the peace process after noting that a significant portion of AKP voters were likely to defect to the MHP.^[217] The allegation comes at a time when relations between the government and president have become strained due to disagreements on the peace process. On 17 March, Erdoğan publicly denied that Turkey had a 'Kurdish problem'.^[218] In April, a military operation in Ağrı resulted in the death of 5 PKK militants, while 8 soldiers were injured and allegedly abandoned by the army after the operation. HDP leader Selahattin Demirtaş accused the government of planning the operation to sabotage the peace process and win votes by intentionally letting soldiers die, adding that HDP supporters helped the 8 wounded soldiers to reach a hospital after army helicopters abandoned them.^[219] Erdoğan retaliated by strongly denying the claims.^[220]

Presidential system

On 19 January 2015, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan chaired his first cabinet meeting since being elected President and became the first President to chair a cabinet meeting for over a decade. The Constitution of Turkey allows for the president to do so on consultation and advisory matters, although Erdoğan's decision to chair the meeting generated opposition as well as a domestic debate on his influence over the government. During the meeting, Erdoğan allegedly told ministers that Turkey needed a presidential system.^[221] The opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) claimed that there was no legitimate reason as to why Erdoğan would chair a cabinet meeting, stating that the President should give a reason before doing so. The CHP further accused Erdoğan for having an unlimited thirst for power.^[222]

On 27 January 2015, Erdoğan stated that the transfer from a parliamentary to a presidential system should and would be on the election agenda. He claimed that the type of the presidential system should be debated according to their various merits as shown by the different systems in France and the United States. Erdoğan put forward the major advantages of a presidential system to be more efficient decision-making as well as the end to the need of argument between the Prime Minister and President. He gave his often feudal relationship with former President Ahmet Necdet Sezer as an example and compared it to the considerably more relaxed relationship with Abdullah Gül. Claiming that the presidential system is a form of government that he had supported ever since his years as the Mayor of İstanbul, Erdoğan gave the United States as an example where separation of powers existed in response to accusations that his underlying agenda was to eradicate checks and balances.^[223]

Opinion polling on this issue indicate that the public strongly prefer the incumbent parliamentary system over any other alternative and also indicate that less than half of AKP voters support a change to a form of presidential system.

'Parallel state'

Opposition politicians and journalists have accused the government of conducting a 'perception operation' in order to vindicate themselves of any wrongdoing following a corruption scandal in December 2013. Since blaming the scandal on a 'coup attempt' by the exiled cleric Fethullah Gülen, the government began a crackdown against Gülen's alleged supporters (called Cemaat) in high judicial and law enforcement positions who were accused of running a 'parallel state'. The arrests of several policemen involved in investigating corruption charges have been labelled by the opposition as a 'perception operation' aiming to increase the legitimacy of the government's claims, with many having since been released a short while after being taken into custody.^[224][225] In retaliation, government ministers such as Erdoğan Bayraktar have blamed the opposition for conducting a 'perception operation' against the AKP by bringing the corruption allegations into the mainstream agenda and portraying the government in a bad way.^[226]

Fethullah Gülen was at one time a close ally of the AKP and had several supporters within the judiciary that helped imprison several army officers which the AKP considered to be a coup threat in 2007, through the use of the controversial Sledgehammer and Ergenekon trials. Gülen withdrew support from the AKP after the 2013 anti-government protests.

Government crackdowns against 'parallel' individuals within judicial and law enforcement offices have come under international scrutiny. While the AKP claims that the individuals arrested are part of a coup attempt orchestrated by Gülen, the opposition have condemned it as an erosion of democracy and judicial independence that has arisen from the AKP's attempts to eliminate opposition supporters from important offices. The government's crackdown against the 'parallel state' have included the reclaiming of overseas schools claimed to have been run by Cemaat, raiding the headquarters of the Zaman newspaper and attempting to close down Bank Asya.^{[227][228][229][230]} Tourism Minister Ömer Çelik has referred to the parallel state as a national security issue that is 'one of the gravest in the history of the republic'.^[230]

The AKP have also accused the opposition CHP and MHP of implicitly forming an alliance with Gülen, particularly during the 2014 local elections. However, CHP deputy leader Gürsel Tekin claimed on 19 January 2015 that the AKP's accusations came without evidence or foundation, further criticising to the AKP's 12 years of close alliance with the Cemaat Movement.^[231]

Political polarisation

According to the AKP Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç, the political scene in Turkey has deteriorated into a 'politics of hatred', emphasising how the government had suffered a heavy loss of respect from the opposition and a rise in the use of harsh and derogatory language between rival politicians. He claimed that despite this, the AKP had still won 50% of the vote in 2011 and it was the government's responsibility to smoothen the political situation.^[232]

A sharp rise in political polarisation has been observed since the Gezi Park protests, where the government openly responded with a heavy handed crackdown and referred to protestors as 'looters' and 'terrorists'.^[233] The AKP have used similar language to describe the CHP and MHP, which it claims are affiliated with the Gülen Movement. In response to the government corruption scandal in 2013, the CHP have referred to AKP politicians as 'thieves'. In retaliation, 320 AKP MPs allegedly sent CHP MPs using the term to court in 2014.^[234] Following the Soma mine disaster in 2014, the AKP were also called 'murderers' for what was widely interpreted to be a lack of workers' rights laws in the country.^[235] Political smearing has thus remained high throughout the election campaign.

Political disagreements and polarisation has also resulted in several cases of politically motivated assault, both between members of the public and also MPs within the Grand National Assembly. On 17 February 2015, AKP MPs threw chairs at the opposition, injuring five MPs including HDP MP Sebahat Tuncel, who was hit by a hammer.^[236][237] A second fight in parliament broke out two days later, resulting in the injury of two CHP MPs.^[238]

Women's rights

In February 2015, a student named Özgecan Aslan was murdered after resisting rape in Tarsus, Mersin Province, causing national outrage and a large-scale campaign to encourage other women to share their experiences with harassment.^[239] Upon the capture of the perpetrators, who admitted the murder, debates regarding the reintroduction of the death penalty surfaced and received support from the Nationalist Movement Party.^[240]

The government received condemnation for a lack of action on the issue of women's rights, with particular criticism being directed to individuals who attempted to justify rape on social media by claiming that wearing non-conservative attire such as mini-skirts provoked it.^[241] The pro-government newspaper Yeni Akit, singer Nihat Doğan and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan were all criticised for their response to the incident, with Doğan being particularly criticised for relating the incident to the effects of the secular system of government.^[242] Erdoğan, who was the AKP Prime Minister between 2003 to 2014, had previously declared that women are not equal to men and also criticised feminists for going against Islam during their protests following the incident.^[243][244] Women's rights activists linked comments made by Erdoğan and his fellow party members, such as "you cannot make men and women equal" by Erdoğan and "women should not laugh out loud in public" by Bülent Arınç to an alleged attempt to solidify gender roles and suppress women's rights.^[245]

CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu accused the government of intervening in the private lives of citizens while not taking action against a sharp increase in sexual harassment, referring to a 658% rise in child drug use and a 1,400% rise in harassment claims since 2002.^[246]

Workers' rights

Turkey has the highest number of workers' deaths within Europe, which is the third highest in the world according to the International Labour Organisation. The Turkish Statistics Office claims that 1,754 workers deaths have occurred between 2009 and 2014.^[247]

In May 2014, 301 miners were killed in Soma, Mersin Province after a coal mine collapsed. Although the government announced a period of mourning, heavy political opposition to the AKP's worker rights record resulted in a breakout in protests and a subsequent police crackdown.^[248] Particular attention was given to the fact that the opposition CHP had proposed a parliamentary motion to investigate previous mining accidents at Soma just two weeks before the incident, only to be rejected by the government.^[249] The AKP subsequently passed a law waiving the debts of the deceaseds' families, lowering the retirement age and also requiring companies to assign job security experts to their employees.^[250] The CHP have proposed abandoning the subcontractor system, strengthening trade unions and raising the wages of workers.^[251] The debate resurfaced after another mining incident occurred in Ermenek, Karaman Province in October 2014.^[252]

As a result of the mining disaster, AKP energy minister Taner Yıldız was expelled from the Ankara Board of Electrical Engineers in March 2015 for misusing his office for personal gain and in a way that did not conform to the standards of the Board or observe the safety of citizens.^[253]

References

External links

Elections and referendums in Turkey Presidential elections 2014 General elections 1923 1927 1931 1935 1939 1943 1946 1950 1954 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2002 2007 2011 2015 Local elections 1930 1934 1938 1942 1946 1950 1955 1963 1968 1973 1977 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 Senate elections 1961 1964 1966 1968 1973 1975 1977 1979 Referendums 1961 1982 1987 1988 2007 2010 By-elections 1986 2003 See also: Elections in the Ottoman Empire