Portuguese presidential election, 2016

January/February 2016

Portugal

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The 2016 Portuguese presidential election will be held in January 2016 and if no candidate achieves 50% of the votes in the first round there will be a second round in February 2016. This election will choose the successor of the current President Aníbal Cavaco Silva.

Procedure

Any Portuguese citizen over 35 years old has the opportunity to run for president. In order to do so it is necessary to gather between 7500 and 15000 signatures and submit them to the Portuguese Constitutional Court.

According to the Portuguese Constitution, to be elected, a candidate needs a majority (50% + 1). If no candidate gets this majority there will take place a second round between the two most voted candidates.

Candidates

Officially declared

Castanheira Barros, Independent, former member of the Social Democratic Party. ^[1]
Henrique Neto, member and former MP of the Socialist Party.^[2]
Paulo Freitas do Amaral, Independent. ^[3]
Paulo de Morais, Independent, former deputy mayor of Porto (2002-2005), strong advocate against corruption in Portugal.^[4]

Potential candidates

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, former leader of the Social Democratic Party (1996–1999).^[5]
António Guterres, former Prime Minister (1995–2002).^[6]
Fernando Nobre, Independent candidate that contested the 2011 presidential election.^[7]
António de Sampaio da Nóvoa, former Rector of the University of Lisbon (2006–2013).^[8]
António Vitorino, former European Commissioner (1999-2004).^[9]
Pedro Santana Lopes, former Prime Minister (2004–2005).^[10]
Rui Rio, former mayor of Porto (2002–2013).^[11]
Paulo Portas, leader of the People's Party (1998–2005, 2007– ), former Minister of National Defence (2002–2005) and of Foreign Affairs (2011–2013) and current Deputy Prime Minister (2013– ).^[12]
Manuel Carvalho da Silva, former union leader of CGTP (1986–2012).^[13]
Manuela Ferreira Leite, former leader of the Social Democratic Party (2008–2010).^[14]

Opinion Polling

Center-Right/Right

Date(s) administered	Poll source	Sample size										Others/ Undecided

			Marcelo PSD	Rio PSD	Santana PSD	Barroso PSD	Portas CDS–PP	Mendes PSD	Esteves PSD	Beleza PSD	Leite PSD
3–6 Mar	Aximage^[15]	600	49.8	35.7	5.6	-	-	-	-	-	7.0	1.9
3–6 Mar	Aximage^[16]	600	39.7	40.2	4.8	-	-	-	-	-	8.6	6.7
2015
6–9 Dez	Aximage	609	44.2	32.3	4.2	8.2	-	-	-	4.3	-	6.8
30 Oct–5 Nov	Eurosondagem	1,005	29.3	26.4	13.3	6.9	4.8	2.5	2.1	-	-	14.7
2013
5–7 Mar	Aximage	600	40.0	-	9.3	22.9	-	-	-	8.3	-	19.5
2012

Center-Left/Left

Date(s) administered	Poll source	Sample size										Others/ Undecided

			Costa PS	Guterres PS	Sócrates PS	Vitorino PS	Silva Ind.	Rodrigues PS	Nóvoa Ind.	Belém PS	Seguro PS
3–6 Mar	Aximage^[17]	600	-	-	-	39.5	20.0	-	-	25.7	8.8	6.0
3–6 Mar	Aximage^[16]	600	-	-	-	42.4	10.7	-	-	21.1	13.4	12.4
2015
6–9 Dez	Aximage	609	43.8	27.3	-	-	6.3	-	3.1	10.4	-	9.1
30 Oct–5 Nov	Eurosondagem	1,005	26.6	20.9	13.7	10.0	6.5	3.3	2.2	-	-	16.8
2013
5–7 Mar	Aximage	600	33.1	25.4	-	-	10.3	-	-	15.0	-	16.2
2012

Runoff polls

Date(s) administered	Poll source	Sample size

			Marcelo PSD	Rio PSD	Santana PSD	Barroso PSD	Guterres PS	Vitorino PS	Silva Ind.	Nóvoa Ind.	Belém PS	Gama PS


4–8 Feb	Aximage	608	65.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	34.1	-
			65.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	34.3
			62.8	-	-	-	-	37.2	-	-	-	-
			-	59.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	40.4	-
			-	67.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	32.3
			-	54.8	-	-	-	45.2	-	-	-	-
			-	-	24.9	-	-	75.1	-	-	-	-
			-	-	35.2	-	-	-	-	-	64.8	-
			-	-	34.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	65.1
8–14 Jan	Eurosondagem	1,010	47.5	-	-	-	52.5	-	-	-	-	-
			-	45.9	-	-	54.1	-	-	-	-	-
			-	-	44.8	-	55.2	-	-	-	-	-
			48.0	-	-	-	-	52.0	-	-	-	-
			-	46.1	-	-	-	53.9	-	-	-	-
			-	-	43.4	-	-	56.6	-	-	-	-
			61.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	38.9	-	-
			-	56.5	-	-	-	-	-	43.5	-	-
			-	-	58.3	-	-	-	-	41.7	-	-
2015
17–21 Nov	Eurosondagem	1,033	-	-	-	39.7	60.3	-	-	-	-	-
			47.4	-	-	-	52.6	-	-	-	-	-
			-	-	41.3	-	58.7	-	-	-	-	-
			-	44.2	-	-	55.8	-	-	-	-	-
			-	-	-	40.7	-	59.3	-	-	-	-
			48.2	-	-	-	-	51.8	-	-	-	-
			-	-	44.5	-	-	55.5	-	-	-	-
			-	47.5	-	-	-	52.5	-	-	-	-
			-	-	-	55.2	-	-	44.8	-	-	-
			64.9	-	-	-	-	-	35.1	-	-	-
			-	-	58.0	-	-	-	42.0	-	-	-
			-	64.8	-	-	-	-	35.2	-	-	-
			-	-	-	69.5	-	-	-	30.5	-	-
			70.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	29.8	-	-
			-	-	65.1	-	-	-	-	34.9	-	-
			-	70.6	-	-	-	-	-	29.4	-	-
2014

References

↑ Os candidatos presidenciais “outsider” que já estão no terreno, Observador, 8 January 2015. Retrieved 9 April.
↑ Henrique Neto candidata-se a Belém com soluções à esquerda e à direita , Jornal I, 25 March 2015. Retrieved 25 March 2015.
↑ Os candidatos presidenciais “outsider” que já estão no terreno, Observador, 8 January 2015. Retrieved 9 April.
↑ Mais um candidato a Belém. Agora é Paulo Morais, Observador, 9 April 2015. Retrieved 9 April.
↑ Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa admite candidatura às presidenciais de 2016, SIC Notícias, 27 October 2013. Retrieved 22 June 2014.
↑ Socialistas católicos apoiam Guterres para presidenciais de 2016, Rádio Renascença, 18 June 2014. Retrieved 22 June 2014.
↑ Presidenciais Nobre a caminho de Belém? "Sou um putativo candidato", Notícias ao Minuto, 14 February 2014. Retrieved 22 June 2014.
↑ Sampaio da Nóvoa. O novo ídolo da esquerda, Jornal i, 15 September 2013. Retrieved 22 June 2014.
↑ PS vira-se para Vitorino, mas não confirma desistência de Guterres, Publico, 7 February 2015. Retrieved 8 February 2015.
↑ Presidenciais Santana Lopes quer suceder a Cavaco em Belém, Notícias ao Minuto, 27 October 2013. Retrieved 22 June 2014.
↑ Presidenciais. Sem Marcelo e sem Durão, Rio é o presidenciável que se segue, Jornal i, 21 January 2014. Retrieved 22 June 2014.
↑ Pires de Lima: "Paulo Portas é um bom candidato a Presidente da República", Dinheiro Vivo, 9 January 2014. Retrieved 22 June 2014.
↑ Mário Soares disponível para apoiar Carvalho da Silva nas presidenciais de 2016, Público, 21 June 2012. Retrieved 22 June 2014.
↑ Manuela Ferreira Leite não afasta candidatura a Belém, Público, 19 February 2015. Retrieved 22 February 2015.
↑ Only PSD and CDS–PP voters asked.
↑ 16.0 16.1 All voters asked.
↑ Only PS, BE and CDU voters asked.

External links

Elections and referendums in Portugal

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