Portuguese legislative election, 2015

Portuguese legislative election, 2015

On or before 11 October 2015

230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic 116 seats needed for a majority   Leader Pedro Passos Coelho António Costa Paulo Portas Party PSD PS CDS–PP Leader since 26 March 2010[1] 28 September 2014 21 April 2007 Leader's seat Vila Real[2] None Aveiro[3] Last election 108 seats, 38.7% 74 seats, 28.1% 24 seats, 11.7% Current seats 108 74 24 Seats needed 8 42 92   BE Leader Jerónimo de Sousa Catarina Martins Party CDU BE Leader since 27 November 2004 30 November 2014 Leader's seat Lisboa[4] Porto[5] Last election 16 seats, 7.9% 8 seats, 5.2% Current seats 16 8 Seats needed 100 108

Incumbent Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho PSD

The 2015 Portuguese legislative election will be held between Sunday, 20 September and Sunday, 11 October 2015, as provided by the Portuguese electoral law.^[6] At stake will be all 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic.

The ruling centre-right coalition of the Social Democratic Party and the Democratic and Social Centre–People's Party, will battle to seek re-election for a second term in office.

Politics of Portugal

The President has the power to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic by his own will. Unlike other countries the President can refuse to dissolve the parliament at the request of the Prime Minister or the Assembly of the Republic and all the parties represented in Parliament. If the Prime Minister resigns, the President must nominate a new Prime Minister after listening to all the parties represented in Parliament and then the nominee must be confirmed by the Assembly of the Republic. The last time a new Prime Minister was nominated, after the last one resigned, without new elections, was Pedro Santana Lopes in 2004. The electorate will elect the members of the 13th Legislature, who will assemble shortly before the oath of the Prime Minister elect.^[6]

Primaries

Socialist Party

The 2014 Portuguese Socialist Party prime ministerial primary was held on 28 September 2014. It was the first open primary in the history of the party, and of Portugal, and elected the party's candidate for Prime Minister for the 2015 general election. There were two candidates running, António José Seguro, General Secretary of the party at the time of the primary, and António Costa, mayor of Lisbon. António Costa won the primary by a landslide with 67.9% of the vote against the 31.7% of Antonio José Seguro, resulting in Seguro conceding defeat and resigning as General Secretary of the party. Costa was next elected new socialist's General Secretary on 22 November 2014.^[7]

Date

According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the President of Portugal but is not called at the request of the Prime Minister, however the President must listen all the parties represented in Parliament and the election day must be announce at least 60 days before the election.^[6] If an election is called in the middle of the legislature (Dissolution of Parliament) it must be held at least in 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seats constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. The next legislative election must, therefore, take place no later than 11 October 2015.^[8]

Electoral system

The Parliament of the Portuguese Republic consists of a single chamber, the Assembly of the Republic, composed of 230 members directly elected by universal adult suffrage for a maximum term of four years. Assembly members represent the entire country, rather than the constituencies in which they were elected. Governments require majority support in the Assembly in order to remain in office.

Each one of Portugal's eighteen administrative districts, as well as each one of the country's two autonomous regions - the Azores and Madeira - is an electoral constituency. Portuguese voters residing outside the national territory are grouped into two electoral constituencies - Europe and the rest of the world - each one of which elects two Assembly members. The remaining 226 seats are allocated among the national territory constituencies in proportion to their number of registered electors.

Political parties and party coalitions may present lists of candidates. The lists are closed, so electors may not choose individual candidates in or alter the order of such lists. Electors cast a ballot for a single list. The seats in each constituency are apportioned according to the largest average method of proportional representation (PR), conceived by the Belgian mathematician Victor d'Hondt in 1899. Although there is no statutory threshold for participation in the allocation of Assembly seats, the application of the d'Hondt method introduces a de facto threshold at the constituency level.^[9]

Parties

The parties that currently are represented in Parliament and their leaders, are:

• Left Bloc (BE), Catarina Martins
• Democratic Unity Coalition (CDU), Jerónimo de Sousa
• Socialist Party (PS), António Costa
• Social Democratic Party (PSD), Pedro Passos Coelho
• People's Party (CDS–PP), Paulo Portas

The Social Democratic Party and the People's Party will contest this election in a coalition.^[10]

Opinion Polling

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Graphical summary

15-day average trend line of poll results from June 2011 to the present day, with each line's colour corresponding to a political party.

Opinion polls

Seats

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 116 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of the Republic.

See also

• Elections in Portugal
• List of political parties in Portugal
• Politics of Portugal

Notes

References

External links

• Popstar Poll Tracker
• Marktest Opinion Poll Tracker
• Official results site, Portuguese Justice Ministry
• Portuguese Electoral Commission
• ERC - Official publication of polls
• NSD: European Election Database - Portugal publishes regional level election data; allows for comparisons of election results, 1991-2011

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