Opinion polling in United Kingdom constituencies, 2010–15
Prior to the upcoming 2015 United Kingdom general election, various polling organisations have conducted opinion polling in specific constituencies. The results of publicised opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article. However, most opinion polling covers Great Britain, where the results are published in this article here.
Opinion polls were conducted gradually from the months after the previous general election held on 6 May 2010, and increased in frequency before the upcoming general election which will take place on 7 May 2015. Though most opinion polls published are for general election voting intention, some polls shown are for voting intention in separate by-elections.
Polls of individual constituencies are expensive compared to national polling and were previously an infrequent practice in the UK. However, a large number of individual constituency polls have been carried out in this period, most commissioned from independent polling providers by Lord Ashcroft, a Conservative peer and sponsor. In addition to polls listed in this article, other polling of constituencies has been carried out in private, often by political parties.[1]
Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.[2]
Constituency polls
England
Amber Valley
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3–12 Jul 2014 | Ashcroft | 482 | 34% | 35% | 4% | 23% | 3% | 2% | 1% over Con |
| 14–20 Apr 2014 | Ashcroft | 421 | 29% | 41% | 6% | 20% | 2% | 2% | 12% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 45,958 | 38.6% | 37.4% | 14.4% | 2.0% | – | 7.6% | 1.2% over Lab |
Bedford
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23–30 Jul 2014 | Ashcroft | 419 | 30% | 39% | 9% | 17% | 4% | 2% | 9% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 45,102 | 38.9% | 35.9% | 19.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 3.0% over Lab |
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3–13 Sep 2014 | Ashcroft | 561 | 35% | 14% | 36% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 44,651 | 29.2% | 17.1% | 48.4% | – | 1.6% | 3.7% | 19.1% over Lab |
Berwick-upon-Tweed
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21–28 Aug 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 16% | 33% | 30% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 3% over LD |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 38,439 | 13.2% | 36.7% | 43.7% | 3.2% | – | 3.2% | 7% over Con |
Birmingham Edgbaston
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul–11 Aug 2014 | Ashcroft | 1001 | 48% | 29% | 3% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 19% over Con |
| 12–18 May 2014 | Ashcroft | 1000 | 44% | 33% | 5% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 11% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 41,571 | 40.6% | 37.6% | 15.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% over Con |
Birmingham Yardley
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27–31 Oct 2014 | Ashcroft | 503 | 31% | 12% | 34% | 19% | 2% | 1% | 3% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 40,850 | 32.2% | 19.2% | 39.6% | 2.9% | – | – | 7.3% over Lab |
Blackpool North and Cleveleys
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Mar–4 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 37% | 42% | 3% | 15% | 2% | 1% | 5% over Lab |
| 13–18 Oct 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 32% | 35% | 5% | 24% | 3% | 1% | 3% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 40,591 | 36.5% | 41.8% | 13.3% | 4.1% | - | 4.3% | 5.3% over Lab |
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | LD | UKIP | Lab | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22–24 Nov 2013 | Survation | 508 | 37% | 11% | 27% | 20% | 5% | 10% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 46,852 | 51.4% | 23.5% | 6.5% | 14.0% | 4.5% | 27.9% over LD |
Bolton West
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23–31 Jul 2014 | Ashcroft | 543 | 40% | 27% | 8% | 21% | 2% | 2% | 13% over Con |
| 21–27 Apr 2014 | Ashcroft | 470 | 41% | 28% | 10% | 17% | 2% | 1% | 13% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 47,576 | 38.5% | 38.3% | 17.2% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% over Con |
Boston and Skegness
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | LD | UKIP | Lab | Green | IFE | BNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan–5 Feb 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 38% | 5% | 35% | 17% | 3% | – | – | 2% | 3% over UKIP |
| 5–9 Sep 2014 | Survation/Alan Bown | 342 | 26.2% | 2.0% | 45.5% | 20.8% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 19.3% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 43,125 | 49.4% | 14.8% | 9.5% | 20.6% | – | – | 5.3% | 0.4% | 28.8% over Lab |
Bradford East
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | BNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–21 Jun 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 45% | 12% | 23% | 15% | 2% | – | 3% | 22% over LD |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 40,457 | 32.8% | 26.8% | 33.7% | – | – | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% over Lab |
Brent Central
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–22 Jun 2014 | Ashcroft | 478 | 54% | 13% | 19% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 35% over LD |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 45,324 | 41.2% | 11.2% | 44.2% | – | 1.5% | 2% | 3.0% over Lab |
Brentford and Isleworth
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17–26 Sep 2014 | Ashcroft | 419 | 32% | 45% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 13% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 53,765 | 37.2% | 33.6% | 23.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.6% over Lab |
Brighton Kemptown
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–21 Sep 2014 | Ashcroft | 529 | 37% | 33% | 6% | 13% | 10% | 1% | 4% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 42,705 | 34.9% | 38.0% | 18.0% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 0.5% | 3.1% over Lab |
Brighton Pavilion
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Green | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–20 Nov 2014 | Ashcroft | 644 | 38% | 28% | 21% | 5% | 8% | 1% | 10% over Lab |
| 5–12 Jun 2014 | Ashcroft | 606 | 32% | 33% | 18% | 5% | 9% | 2% | 1% over Green |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 51,834 | 31.3% | 28.9% | 23.7% | 13.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 2.4% over Lab |
Bristol North West
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17-23 April 2015 | Ashcroft | 673 | 34% | 43% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 0% | 9% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 50,336 | 25.9% | 38.0% | 32.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 5.5% over LD |
Bristol West
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17-23 April 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,001 | 38% | 14% | 20% | 2% | 25% | 1% | 13% over Green |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 55,347 | 27.5% | 18.4% | 48.0% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 20.5% over Lab |
Broxtowe
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | BNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jun–4 Jul 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 30% | 39% | 7% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 9% over Con |
| 8–13 Apr 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 30% | 44% | 10% | 13% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 14% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 52,727 | 39.0% | 38.3% | 16.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 2.7% | – | 0.7% over Lab |
Burnley
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | BNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27–30 Oct 2014 | Ashcroft | 469 | 11% | 38% | 23% | 25% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 13% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 41,845 | 16.6% | 31.3% | 35.7% | 2.2% | – | 9.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% over Lab |
Bury North
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-14 October 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,004 | 32% | 41% | 5% | 20% | 2% | 1% | 9% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 44,961 | 40.2% | 35.2% | 17% | 2.9% | - | 4.8% | 5% over Lab |
Camborne and Redruth
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | MK | OMRLP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24–26 Mar 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,001 | 37% | 24% | 13% | 14% | 8% | – | – | 3% | 13% over Lab |
| 25 Nov 2014 | Survation/University of Exeter | 500 | 30.0% | 22.4% | 6.3% | 33.0% | 6.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 3% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 42,493 | 37.6% | 16.3% | 37.4% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | – | 0.4% | 0.2% over LD |
Cambridge
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24–28 Mar 2015 | Ashcroft | 1000 | 17% | 31% | 40% | 3% | 9% | – | 9% over Lab |
| 3–12 Sep 2014 | Ashcroft | 1000 | 19% | 33% | 32% | 7% | 8% | 1% | 1% over LD |
| 4–8 Apr 2014 | ICM/Lord Oakeshott | 500 | 18% | 41% | 28% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 13% over LD |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 50,130 | 25.6% | 24.3% | 39.1% | 2.4% | 7.6% | 1.0% | 13.5% over Con |
Cannock Chase
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | BNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16–24 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,002 | 38% | 32% | 5% | 21% | 3% | – | 1% | 6% over Con |
| 22–27 Oct 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 32% | 27% | 8% | 30% | 2% | – | 1% | 2% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 45,559 | 33.1% | 40.1% | 17.0% | 3.5% | – | 4.8% | 1.6% | 7% over Lab |
Carlisle
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-16 Jul 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,001 | 30% | 41% | 5% | 18% | 3% | 3% | 11% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 42,200 | 39.3% | 37.3% | 15.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 4.1% | 2.0% over Lab |
Carshalton and Wallington
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct–6 Nov 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 12% | 23% | 43% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 20% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 45,918 | 8.7% | 36.8% | 48.3% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 11.5% over Con |
Castle Point
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15–24 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 12% | 41% | 2% | 36% | 3% | 5% | 5% over UKIP |
| 26 Jan–5 Feb 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,002 | 16% | 37% | 3% | 36% | 2% | 6% | 1% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 45,026 | 14.7% | 44.0% | 9.4% | – | - | 31.9% | 17.0% over Ind |
Cheadle
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15–22 Aug 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 19% | 30% | 34% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 4% over CON |
| 26 May-1 Jun 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,003 | 21% | 29% | 32% | 15% | 2% | 1% | 3% over CON |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 52,512 | 9.4% | 40.8% | 47.1% | 2.7% | – | – | 6.3% over CON |
Cheltenham
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct-1 Nov 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 7% | 34% | 42% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 8% over CON |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 52,768 | 5.1% | 41.2% | 50.5% | 2.3% | – | 0.9 | 9.3% over CON |
Chippenham
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14-20 Aug 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 39% | 14% | 24% | 16% | 6% | 1% | 15% over LD |
| 26 May-1 Jun 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 35% | 12% | 26% | 19% | 7% | 1% | 9% over LD |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 52,385 | 41.0% | 6.9% | 45.8% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 2% | 4.8% over Con |
City of Chester
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb-5 Mar 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 45% | 34% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 11% over Con |
| 13–18 Oct 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 37% | 36% | 7% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 1% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 46,853 | 35.1% | 40.6% | 19.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 5.5% over Lab |
Clacton
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | UKIP | LD | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2014 | Clacton by-election Result | 35,365 | 24.6% | 11.2% | 59.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 35.1% over Con |
| 29 Aug–1 Sep 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,001 | 27% | 19% | 48% | 3% | 3% | <0.5% | 21% over Con |
| 29 Aug–1 Sep 2014 | Ashcroft (By-election polling) | 1,001 | 24% | 16% | 56% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 32% over Con |
| 28–29 Aug 2014 | Survation (By-election polling) | 700 | 20% | 13% | 64% | 2% | 1% | <0.5% | 44% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 43,123 | 53.0% | 25.0% | – | 12.9% | 1.2% | 7.8% | 28.0% over Lab |
Cleethorpes
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-11 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,001 | 38% | 36% | 6% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 2% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 44,966 | 42.1% | 32.6% | 18.2% | 7.1% | - | 3.9% | 9.5% over Lab |
Colchester
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4–14 Nov 2014 | Ashcroft | 505 | 17% | 22% | 36% | 18% | 6% | 1% | 14% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 46,139 | 12.3% | 32.9% | 48.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 15.1% over Con |
Colne Valley
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16–22 April 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 35% | 37% | 8% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 2% over Lab |
| 2–12 Feb 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 34% | 33% | 9% | 13% | 9% | 1% | 1% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 55,296 | 26.4% | 37.0% | 28.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 4.7% | 8.7% over LD |
Corby
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–17 Sep 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 40% | 30% | 5% | 21% | 2% | 2% | 10% over Con |
| 15 Nov 2012 | Corby by-election Result | 35,665 | 48.4% | 26.6% | 5.0% | 14.3% | 1.1% | 4.6% | 21.8% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 54,180 | 38.6% | 42.2% | 14.5% | – | – | 4.7% | 3.6% over Lab |
Crewe and Nantwich
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | UKIP | LD | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–9 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 38% | 41% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 3% over Con |
| 22–24 Nov 2013 | Survation/Alan Bown | 500 | 33% | 46% | 11% | 6% | 5% | 13% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 51,084 | 45.8% | 34.0% | 2.8% | 15.0% | 2.3% | 11.8% over Lab |
Croydon Central
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | UKIP | LD | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26-30 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,003 | 44% | 40% | 10% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 4% over Lab |
| 3–12 Mar 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 37% | 41% | 13% | 3% | 5% | 1% | 4% over Con |
| 14–18 Oct 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 33% | 39% | 19% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 6% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 49,757 | 39.5% | 33.5% | 2.0% | 13.2% | 1.2% | 10.6% | 6.0% over Lab |
Derby North
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 May-4 Jun 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 23% | 44% | 17% | 12% | 2% | 2% | 21% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 45,080 | 31.7% | 33% | 28% | 1.8% | – | 5.4% | 1.3% over Con |
Dewsbury
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15-23 Jul 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 30% | 40% | 4% | 18% | 6% | 3% | 10% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 54,008 | 35% | 32.2% | 16.9% | - | 1.6% | 14.3% | 2.8% over Lab |
Doncaster North
Note: Michael Ashcroft initially published incorrect results for his 18–23 Nov 2014 poll,[3] erroneously showing only a small Labour lead. The corrected poll results are below.
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | BNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18–23 Nov 2014 | Ashcroft, Corrected | 1,000 | 13% | 54% | 4% | 25% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 29% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 41,483 | 21.0% | 47.3% | 14.9% | 4.3% | – | 6.8% | 5.6% | 26.3% over Con |
Dover
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-9 April 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,002 | 32% | 40% | 3% | 20% | 4% | - | 8% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 50,385 | 33.5% | 44% | 15.8% | 3.5% | - | 3.2% | 10.5% over Lab |
Dudley North
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | UKIP | LD | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–27 Nov 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,001 | 37% | 24% | 34% | 3% | 3% | 3% over UKIP |
| 28 Apr–4 May 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 40% | 24% | 27% | 4% | 5% | 13% over UKIP |
| 22–24 Nov 2013 | Survation | 526 | 45% | 25% | 23% | 2% | 5% | 20% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 38,602 | 38.7% | 37.0% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 5.3% | 1.7% over Con |
Dudley South
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7-10 April 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 35% | 39% | 3% | 18% | 4% | 4% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 38,165 | 33% | 43.1% | 15.7% | 8.2% | - | 10.1% over Lab |
Ealing Central and Acton
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–6 Dec 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 34% | 40% | 11% | 6% | 7% | 2% | 6% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 47,200 | 38.0% | 30.1% | 27.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 7.9% over Lab |
Eastbourne
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug-5 Sep 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 7% | 25% | 46% | 18% | 2% | 2% | 21% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 52,142 | 4.8% | 40.7% | 47.3% | 2.5% | - | 4.6% | 6.6% over Con |
Eastleigh
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | LD | Con | UKIP | Lab | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–28 Aug 2014 | Ashcroft | 538 | 40% | 25% | 21% | 12% | 2% | 1% | 15% over Con |
| 29 May–6 Jun 2014 | Ashcroft | 523 | 39% | 27% | 22% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 12% over Con |
| 14–17 Apr 2014 | Survation/Alan Bown | 369 | 27.1% | 28.2% | 31.6% | 11.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 3.4% over Con |
| 28 Feb 2013 | Eastleigh by-election Result | 42,649 | 32.1% | 25.4% | 27.8% | 9.8% | – | 4.9% | 4.3% over UKIP |
| 22–24 Feb 2013 | Ashcroft (By-election polling)[4] | 416 | 33% | 28% | 23% | 12% | – | 4% | 5% over Con |
| 19–22 Feb 2013 | Populus/Times (By-election polling)[5] | 408 | 33% | 28% | 25% | 11% | – | 4% | 5% over Con |
| 18–22 Feb 2013 | Survation/Mail on Sunday (By-election polling) | 402 | 29% | 33% | 21% | 13% | – | 4% | 4% over LD |
| 6–8 Feb 2013 | Survation/Mail on Sunday[6] | 321 | 36% | 33% | 16% | 13% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 3% over Con |
| 4–5 Feb 2013 | Ashcroft (By-election polling)[7] | 314 | 31% | 34% | 15% | 19% | 1% | 1% | 3% over LD |
| 2–5 Aug 2010 | Ashcroft | 513 | 31% | 43% | – | 20% | – | 6% | 12% over LD |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 53,650 | 46.5% | 39.3% | 3.6% | 9.6% | – | 1.0% | 7.2% over Con |
Elmet and Rothwell
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8–13 Dec 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 39% | 35% | 6% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 4% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 55,789 | 42.6% | 34.5% | 16.3% | 2.9% | – | 3.6% | 8.1% over Lab |
Enfield North
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17–25 Sep 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 34% | 44% | 3% | 12% | 3% | 3% | 10% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 44,453 | 42.3% | 38.5% | 12.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% over Lab |
Erewash
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-14 Oct 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,003 | 30% | 38% | 5% | 22% | 3% | 2% | 8% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 47,642 | 39.5% | 34.2% | 17.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 5.3% over Lab |
Folkestone and Hythe
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | LD | UKIP | Lab | Green | Respect | TUSC | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3–4 Apr 2014 | Survation/Mail on Sunday | 529 | 36.4% | 9.6% | 32.9% | 17.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 3.5% over UKIP |
| 22–24 Nov 2013 | Survation/Alan Bown | 548 | 35% | 10% | 28% | 21% | 4% | – | – | 2% | 7% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 52,800 | 49.4% | 30.3% | 4.6% | 10.8% | 1.2% | – | – | 3.6% | 19.1% over LD |
Gloucester
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Mar–4 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1001 | 40% | 36% | 9% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 4% over Lab |
| 24 Sep–2 Oct 2014 | Ashcroft | 496 | 34% | 33% | 12% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 1% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 50,764 | 39.9% | 35.2% | 19.2% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 4.8% over Lab |
Great Grimsby
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | UKIP | LD | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15–24 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1000 | 42% | 24% | 25% | 5% | 4% | 17% over UKIP |
| 20–27 Nov 2014 | Ashcroft | 448 | 35% | 20% | 34% | 8% | 4% | 1% over UKIP |
| 5–11 May 2014 | Ashcroft | 410 | 38% | 21% | 26% | 10% | 5% | 12% over UKIP |
| 18–22 Oct 2013 | Survation | 434 | 40% | 21% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 17% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 32,954 | 32.7% | 30.5% | 6.2% | 22.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% over Con |
Great Yarmouth
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | UKIP | LD | Green | BNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15–24 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 441 | 36% | 34% | 24% | 2% | 4% | - | 1% | 2% over Lab |
| 11–16 Jul 2014 | Ashcroft | 441 | 33% | 28% | 32% | 3% | 3% | 1%[8] | 1% | 1% over UKIP |
| 21–27 Apr 2014 | Ashcroft | 377 | 32% | 31% | 29% | 5% | 2% | <0.5%[9] | 1% | 1% over Lab |
| 22–24 Nov 2013 | Survation | 507 | 27% | 37% | 30% | 3% | 2% | 7% over UKIP | ||
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 43,057 | 43.1% | 33.2% | 4.8% | 14.4% | 1.0% | 3.3% | 0.2% | 9.9% over Lab |
Halesowen and Rowley Regis
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Feb–5 Mar 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 37% | 39% | 4% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 2% over Con |
| 24 Sep–3 Oct 2014 | Ashcroft | 509 | 34% | 35% | 2% | 24% | 4% | 1% | 1% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 43,979 | 41.2% | 36.6% | 14.8% | 6.4% | – | 1.0% | 4.6% over Lab |
Hampstead and Kilburn
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | UKIP | LD | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul–3 Aug 2014 | Ashcroft | 583 | 30% | 47% | 2% | 13% | 6% | 1% | 17% over Con |
| 21–27 Apr 2014 | Ashcroft | 509 | 30% | 41% | 3% | 19% | 6% | 0% | 11% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Result | 52,822 | 32.7% | 32.8% | 0.8% | 31.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% over Con |
Harrow East
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar–4 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1000 | 40% | 44% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4% over Con |
| 1–7 Dec 2014 | Ashcroft | 524 | 40% | 37% | 6% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 3% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 48,006 | 44.7% | 37.6% | 14.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | – | 7.1% over Lab |
Hazel Grove
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4–15 Nov 2014 | Ashcroft | 564 | 15% | 29% | 35% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 6% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 41,981 | 12.5% | 33.6% | 48.8% | 5.1% | – | – | 15.2% over Con |
Hendon
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18–29 Jun 2014 | Ashcroft | 511 | 35% | 45% | 4% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 10% over Con |
| 31 Mar–6 Apr 2014 | Ashcroft | 490 | 38% | 41% | 5% | 13% | 2% | 1% | 3% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 46,374 | 42.3% | 42.1% | 12.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | – | 0.2% over Lab |
Heywood and Middleton
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2014 | Heywood and Middleton by-election Result | 28,472 | 40.9% | 12.3% | 5.1% | 38.7% | 3.1% | – | 2.2% over UKIP |
| 30 Sep–4 Oct 2014 | Ashcroft (By-election polling) | 1,000 | 47% | 16% | 5% | 28% | 4% | – | 19% over UKIP |
| 30 Sep 2014 | Survation/The Sun (By-election polling) | 551 | 50% | 13% | 4% | 31% | 3% | – | 19% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 46,125 | 40.1% | 27.2% | 22.7% | 2.6% | - | 7.4% | 12.9% over Con |
High Peak
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17-23 April 2015 | Ashcroft | 639 | 38% | 40% | 7% | 10% | 5% | 1% | 2% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 50,337 | 31.6% | 40.9% | 21.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 9.3% over Lab |
Hornsey and Wood Green
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Mar 2015 | Liberal Democrats (fieldwork by Survation) | 325 | 15% | 37% | 36% | 4% | 7% | 1% | 1% over LD |
| 3–13 Sep 2014 | Ashcroft | 553 | 14% | 43% | 30% | 3% | 8% | 1% | 13% over LD |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 55,042 | 16.7% | 34.0% | 46.5% | – | 2.3% | 0.6% | 12.5% over Lab |
Hove
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar–4 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1000 | 37% | 43% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 1% | 6% over Con |
| 17–27 Sep 2014 | Ashcroft | 568 | 34% | 37% | 6% | 11% | 12% | <0.5% | 3% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 49,819 | 36.7% | 33.0% | 22.6% | 2.4% | 5.2% | 0.2% | 3.7% over Lab |
Lancaster and Fleetwood
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jun–4 Jul 2014 | Ashcroft | 482 | 27% | 39% | 3% | 19% | 11% | 2% | 12% over Con |
| 8–13 Apr 2014 | Ashcroft | 480 | 29% | 43% | 6% | 12% | 9% | 1% | 14% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 42,701 | 36.1% | 35.3% | 19.1% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 0.8% over Lab |
Manchester Withington
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–21 Jun 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 56% | 7% | 22% | 4% | 10% | 1% | 34% over LD |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 45,075 | 40.5% | 11.1% | 44.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 4.1% over Lab |
Newark
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jun 2014 | Newark by-election Result | 38,707 | 45.0% | 17.7% | 3% | 25.9% | 8% | 19% over UKIP |
| 2–3 Jun 2014 | Survation | 678 | 42% | 22% | 4% | 27% | 5% | 15% over UKIP |
| 27 May–1 Jun 2014 | Ashcroft (By-election polling) | 1,000 | 42% | 20% | 6% | 27% | 5% | 15% over UKIP |
| 27–28 May 2014 | Survation/The Sun | 606 | 36% | 27% | 5% | 28% | 5% | 8% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 51,228 | 53.9% | 22.3% | 20.0% | 3.8% | – | 31.5% over Lab |
North East Cambridgeshire
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan–5 Feb 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 17% | 46% | 7% | 25% | 4% | 1% | 21% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 52,064 | 17.8% | 51.6% | 20.0% | 5.4% | - | 5.2% | 31.5% over LD |
North Warwickshire
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18–28 Jun 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 41% | 30% | 2% | 22% | 2% | 2% | 11% over Con |
| 31 Mar–6 Apr 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,001 | 43% | 35% | 3% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 8% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 47,265 | 40.1% | 40.2% | 11.6% | 2.8% | – | 0.9% | 0.1% over Lab |
Norwich North
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24-30 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 38% | 36% | 6% | 12% | 8% | 1% | 2% over Con |
| 4–12 Feb 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 35% | 34% | 5% | 18% | 10% | 0% | 1% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 42,573 | 31.4% | 40.6% | 18.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 9.2% over Lab |
Norwich South
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–21 Jun 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 33% | 18% | 12% | 15% | 20% | 1% | 13% over Green |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 47,551 | 28.7% | 22.9% | 29.4% | 2.4% | 14.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% over Lab |
Nuneaton
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | BNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb-5 Mar 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 38% | 35% | 3% | 14% | 8% | – | 2% | 3% over Con |
| 24 Sep–3 Oct 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 39% | 36% | 3% | 19% | 2% | – | 1% | 3% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 44,646 | 36.9% | 41.5% | 15.3% | – | – | 6.3% | - | 4.6% over Lab |
Oxford West and Abingdon
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21–28 Aug 2014 | Ashcroft | 550 | 18% | 38% | 30% | 9% | 4% | <0.5% | 8.0% over LD |
| 30 May–5 Jun 2014 | Ashcroft | 527 | 18% | 36% | 25% | 11% | 8% | 1% | 11% over LD |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 56,480 | 10.6% | 42.3% | 42.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% over LD |
Pendle
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar–4 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1000 | 41% | 37% | 8% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 4% over Lab |
| 8–14 Dec 2014 | Ashcroft | 525 | 36% | 33% | 11% | 17% | 2% | 1% | 3% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 45,045 | 38.9% | 30.9% | 20.2% | 3.3% | – | 6.7% | 8.0% over Lab |
Plymouth Moor View
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15–23 Jul 2014 | Ashcroft | 506 | 35% | 26% | 5% | 30% | 2% | 1% | 5% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 41,526 | 37.2% | 33.3% | 16.9% | 7.7% | 1.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% over Con |
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15–23 Jul 2014 | Ashcroft | 506 | 39% | 26% | 6% | 21% | 8% | 1% | 8% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 43,894 | 31.7% | 34.3% | 24.7% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 2.6% over Lab |
Portsmouth South
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct–6 Nov 2014 | Ashcroft | 490 | 20% | 30% | 25% | 17% | 6% | 1% | 5% over LD |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 41,264 | 13.7% | 33.3% | 45.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 12.6% over Con |
Redcar
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug–6 Sep 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 44% | 12% | 18% | 23% | 2% | 1% | 21% over UKIP |
| 17–19 Apr 2014 | ICM/Lord Oakeshott | 500 | 47% | 15% | 15% | 19% | 2% | 2% | 28% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 41,963 | 32.7% | 13.8% | 45.2% | 4.5% | – | 3.8% | 12.5% over Lab |
Rochester and Strood
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15–22 April 2015 | Ashcroft | 1000 | 36% | 24% | 3% | 33% | 4% | 1% | 3% over UKIP |
| 20 Nov 2014 | Rochester and Strood by-election Result | 40,065 | 34.8% | 16.8% | 0.9% | 42.1% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 7.3% over Con |
| 7–10 Nov 2014 | Ashcroft | 543 | 36% | 21% | 2% | 35% | 5% | 1% | 1% over UKIP |
| 7–10 Nov 2014 | Ashcroft (By-election polling) | 543 | 32% | 17% | 2% | 44% | 4%[10] | 1% | 12% over Con |
| 27–28 Oct 2014 | Survation | 1,012 | 33% | 16% | 1% | 48% | 1.7% | 2% | 15% over Con |
| 17–21 Oct 2014 | ComRes[11] | 949 | 30% | 21% | 3% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 13% over Con |
| 4 Oct 2014 | Survation/Mail on Sunday | 677 | 31% | 25% | 2% | 40% | 1% | 0.4% | 9% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 47,971 | 49.2% | 28.5% | 16.3% | – | 1.5% | 4.5% | 20.7% over Lab |
Rother Valley
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | UKIP | LD | Green | BNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24–29 Nov 2014 | Ashcroft | 480 | 18% | 40% | 34% | 4% | 3% | <0.5% | 2% | 6% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 46,768 | 28.4% | 40.9% | 5.6% | 17.3% | – | 7.7% | – | 12.5% over Con |
Sheffield Hallam
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22–28 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 37% | 15% | 36% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 1% over LD |
| 22–28 Mar 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,001 | 36% | 16% | 34% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 2% over LD |
| 22–29 Jan 2015 | Survation/Unite | 1,011 | 33% | 22% | 23% | 9% | 12% | <0.5% | 10% over LD |
| 20–22 Nov 2014 | Ashcroft | 962 | 30% | 19% | 27%[12] | 13% | 10% | 1% | 3% over LD |
| 29 Apr–4 May 2014 | ICM/Lord Oakeshott | 500 | 33% | 24% | 23% | 10% | 8% | 1% | 9% over Con |
| 1–4 Oct 2010 | Populus/Ashcroft | 1,000 | 31% | 28% | 33% | N/A | N/A | 8% | 2% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Result | 51,135 | 16.1% | 23.5% | 53.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 29.9% over Con |
Solihull
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul–10 Aug 2014 | Ashcroft | 545 | 12% | 37% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 1% | 9% over LD |
| 12–18 May 2014 | Ashcroft | 507 | 12% | 37% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 1% | 9% over LD |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 55,129 | 8.9% | 42.6% | 42.9% | 2.2% | – | 3.5% | 0.3% over Con |
Southampton Itchen
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Feb-7 Mar 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 35% | 30% | 7% | 20% | 8% | – | 5% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 44,412 | 36.8% | 36.3% | 20.8% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% over Con |
South Basildon and East Thurrock
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan–5 Feb 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,001 | 28% | 35% | 3% | 29% | 3% | 1% | 6% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 44,735 | 31.0% | 43.9% | 13.4% | 5.9% | - | 5.9% | 12.9% over Lab |
South Swindon
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22–28 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 37% | 36% | 6% | 16% | 4% | - | 1% over Lab |
| 3–12 Mar 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 36% | 35% | 5% | 19% | 4% | 2% | 1% over Lab |
| 1–6 Dec 2014 | Ashcroft | 508 | 34% | 34% | 7% | 20% | 4% | 1% | Tied |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 47,119 | 41.8% | 34.3% | 17.6% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 7.5% over Lab |
South Thanet
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | UKIP | LD | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22-28 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 34% | 26% | 32% | 3% | 5% | 2% over UKIP |
| April 2015 | Survation/Alan Bown [13] | 1,000 | 30% | 26% | 39% | 2% | 2% | 9% over Con |
| 13-18 March 2015 | ComRes/Chartwell Political | 1,003 | 31% | 29% | 30% | 5% | 5% | 1% over UKIP |
| 18–20 Feb 2015 | Survation/Alan Bown [14] | 1,011 | 27% | 28% | 38% | 2% | 5% | 10% over Lab |
| 23–24 Nov 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,003 | 33% | 27% | 32% | 4% | 4% | 1% over UKIP |
| 11–16 July 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 29% | 29% | 33% | 4% | 5% | 4% over Con & Lab |
| 21–27 April 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 32% | 31% | 27% | 7% | 3% | 1% over Lab |
| 22–24 Nov 2013 | Survation | 515 | 28% | 35% | 30% | 5% | 2% | 5% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 45,933 | 48.0% | 31.4% | 5.5% | 15.1% | – | 16.6% over Lab |
South West Surrey
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | LD | UKIP | Lab | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4–5 Dec 2014 | Survation/Unite | 587 | 57% | 8% | 15% | 11% | 7% | 1% | 42% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 57,259 | 58.7% | 30.2% | 2.6% | 6.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 28.5% over LD |
St Austell and Newquay
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2015 | Ashcroft | 1002 | 32% | 10% | 26% | 20% | 6% | 4% | 6% over LD |
| 6–16 Aug 2014 | Ashcroft | 493 | 27% | 13% | 26% | 25% | 6% | 3% | 1% over LD |
| 19–25 May 2014 | Ashcroft[15] | 473 | 32% | 10% | 24% | 25% | 4% | 5% | 7% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 47,238 | 40.0% | 7.2% | 42.7% | 3.7% | – | 6.4% | 2.8% over Con |
Stevenage
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8–13 Dec 2014 | Ashcroft | 497 | 38% | 33% | 7% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 5% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 44,651 | 33.4% | 41.4% | 16.6% | 4.5% | – | 4.1% | 8.0% over Lab |
Stockton South
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar–4 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1000 | 39% | 44% | 3% | 9% | 1% | 3% | 5% over Con |
| 6–12 Nov 2014 | Survation/Unite | 571 | 39.1% | 36.5% | 2.8% | 18.2% | 3.1% | 0.2% | 2.6% over Lab |
| 26 Jun–4 Jul 2014 | Ashcroft | 521 | 35% | 38% | 4% | 19% | 2% | 2% | 3% over Con |
| 7–13 Apr 2014 | Ashcroft | 512 | 36% | 43% | 5% | 12% | 0% | 3% | 7% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 50,284 | 38.9% | 38.3% | 15.1% | 2.9% | – | 4.8% | 0.6% over Lab |
Stroud
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–16 Jul 2014 | Ashcroft | 561 | 30% | 41% | 6% | 11% | 11% | <0.5% | 11% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 57,973 | 40.8% | 38.6% | 15.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 0.2% | 2.2% over Lab |
Sutton and Cheam
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-16 August 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 11% | 27% | 45% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 18% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 48,508 | 7.0% | 42.4% | 45.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% over Con |
Thurrock
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | UKIP | LD | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17-23 April 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 30% | 31% | 35% | 1% | 3% | 4% over Lab |
| 18–26 June 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,002 | 28% | 30% | 36% | 2% | 4% | 6% over Lab |
| 31 Mar–6 Apr 2014 | Ashcroft | 394 | 27% | 37% | 29% | 4% | 3% | 8% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 45,822 | 36.8% | 36.6% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 0.2% over Lab |
Twickenham
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | UKIP | LD | Green | BNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2014 | ICM/Oakeshott | 278 | 34% | 23% | 5% | 32% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 2% over LD |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 59,721 | 34.1% | 7.7% | 1.5% | 54.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 20.3% over Con |
Warwick & Leamington
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–6 Dec 2014 | Ashcroft | 534 | 38% | 34% | 7% | 14% | 7% | <0.5% | 4% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 49,032 | 42.6% | 35.4% | 18.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 7.2% over Lab |
Watford
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–20 Nov 2014 | Ashcroft | 525 | 30% | 24% | 28% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 2% over LD |
| 20–28 Aug 2014 | Ashcroft | 525 | 27% | 29% | 25% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 2% over Con |
| 19 May–6 Jun 2014 | Ashcroft | 524 | 29% | 25% | 24% | 16% | 6% | 0% | 4% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 55,208 | 34.9% | 26.7% | 32.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% over LD |
Wirral West
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24-30 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 43% | 46% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 3% over Con |
| 3–12 Mar 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 37% | 42% | 5% | 10% | 5% | 1% | 5% over Con |
| 22–26 Oct 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 38% | 39% | 6% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 1% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 39,372 | 42.5% | 36.3% | 16.8% | 2.3% | – | 2.1% | 6.2% over Lab |
Witney
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | LD | UKIP | Lab | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–4 Dec 2014 | Survation/Unite | 531 | 53% | 4% | 19% | 16% | 7% | 1% | 34% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 57,769 | 58.8% | 19.4% | 3.5% | 13.0% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 39.4% over LD |
Worcester
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | BNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3–12 Mar 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,002 | 38% | 33% | 4% | 15% | 7% | – | 2% | 5% over Lab |
| 13–19 Oct 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,002 | 34% | 36% | 5% | 17% | 7% | – | 1% | 2% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 48,974 | 39.5% | 33.4% | 19.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 6.1% over Lab |
Wyre Forest
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | BNP | ICHC | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–20 Nov 2014 | Ashcroft | 518 | 32% | 16% | 7% | 27% | 5% | <1% | - | 13% | 5% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 50,899 | 36.9% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 2.9% | – | 2.2% | 31.7% | – | 5.2% over ICHC |
Wythenshawe and Sale East
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Lab | UKIP | Con | LD | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Feb 2014 | Wythenshawe by-election Result | 23,961 | 55.3% | 18.0% | 14.5% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 37.3% over UKIP |
| 3–5 Feb 2014 | Ashcroft (By-election polling) | 1,009 | 61% | 15% | 14% | 5% | 4% | 46% over UKIP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 40,751 | 44.1% | 3.4% | 25.6% | 22.3% | 4.6% | 18.6% over Con |
Northern Ireland
Belfast East
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | DUP | APNI | UUP | PUP | TUV | SF | UKIP | Green | SDLP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12–28 Jan 2015 | LucidTalk | 820 | 34.4% | 28.7% | 14.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% over APNI |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 34,488 | 32.8% | 37.2% | 21.2% | – | 5.4% | 2.4% | – | – | 1.1% | – | 4.4% over DUP |
Scotland
Airdrie and Shotts
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14–22 Jan 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 7% | 39% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 47% | 0% | 8% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 35,849 | 8.7% | 58.2% | 8.1% | – | – | 23.5% | 1.5% | 34.6% over SNP |
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–19 Feb 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 21% | 31% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 42% | 1% | 11% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 45,893 | 25.5% | 47.1% | 9.3% | – | – | 18.0% | – | 21.6% over Con |
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13-16 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,001 | 30% | 9% | 28% | 3% | 1% | 29% | 0% | 1% over SNP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 40,014 | 33.8% | 10.2% | 45.4% | 1.2% | – | 9.2% | 0.3% | 11.6% over Con |
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7–17 Jan 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,001 | 6% | 43% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 46% | 1% | 3% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 41,635 | 8.1% | 66.6% | 8.5% | – | – | 16.8% | – | 49.8% over SNP |
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14–22 Jan 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 6% | 34% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 52% | 1% | 18% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 41,150 | 8.3% | 57.2% | 9.5% | – | – | 23.8% | 1.2% | 33.3% over SNP |
Dumfries and Galloway
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19–26 Feb 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,002 | 30% | 28% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 34% | 0% | 4% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 52,173 | 31.6% | 45.9% | 8.8% | 1.3% | – | 12.3% | – | 14.3% over Con |
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24-29 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 31% | 17% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 42% | - | 11% over Con |
| 9-15 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 34% | 20% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 36% | 1% | 2% over Con |
| 10–19 Feb 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,001 | 34% | 18% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 34% | 1% | Tied |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 45,892 | 38.0% | 28.9% | 19.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 10.8% | – | 9.1% over Lab |
Dundee West
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23–30 Jan 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 6% | 25% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 59% | 0% | 34% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 37,126 | 9.3% | 48.5% | 11.4% | – | – | 28.9% | 1.9% | 19.6% over SNP |
East Dunbartonshire
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 12% | 16% | 29% | 1% | 1% | 40% | 0% | 11% over LD |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 47,948 | 15.5% | 34.1% | 38.7% | 1.1% | – | 10.5% | - | 4.6% over Lab |
East Renfrewshire
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24-30 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 20% | 36% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 39% | - | 3% over Lab |
| 11-16 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,002 | 25% | 31% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 40% | - | 9% over Lab |
| 16–26 Feb 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 26% | 34% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 33% | - | 1% over SNP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 51,181 | 30.4% | 50.8% | 9.2% | 0.7% | – | 8.9% | – | 20.4% over Con |
Edinburgh North and Leith
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 - 17 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 14% | 29% | 6% | 1% | 6% | 43% | 0% | 14% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 47,356 | 14.9% | 37.5% | 33.8% | – | 2.2% | 9.6% | 1.6% | 3.5% over LD |
Edinburgh South
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 - 17 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 16% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 4% | 37% | 1% | 3% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 43,801 | 21.6% | 34.7% | 34.0% | – | 2.0% | 7.7% | - | 0.7% over LD |
Edinburgh South West
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–19 Feb 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 19% | 27% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 40% | 0% | 13% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 45,462 | 24.3% | 42.8% | 18.0% | – | 1.9% | 12.2% | 0.8% | 18.6% over Con |
Glasgow Central
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–10 Jan 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 5% | 35% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 45% | 2% | 10% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 30,572 | 7.1% | 52.0% | 16.4% | 0.8% | 2.6% | 17.5% | 3.6% | 34.5% over SNP |
Glasgow East
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–8 Jan 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,001 | 4% | 37% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 51% | 2% | 14% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 32,164 | 4.5% | 61.6% | 5.0% | 0.6% | – | 24.7% | 3.5% | 36.8% over SNP |
Glasgow North
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–10 Jan 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,001 | 5% | 33% | 4% | 1% | 11% | 45% | 1% | 12% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 29,613 | 7.1% | 44.5% | 31.3% | – | 3.2% | 11.9% | 2.0% | 13.2% over LD |
Glasgow North East
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–8 Jan 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,001 | 4% | 46% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 39% | 1% | 7% over SNP |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 29,409 | 5.3% | 68.3% | 7.7% | – | – | 14.1% | 4.4% | 54.2% over SNP |
Glasgow North West
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7–17 Jan 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 7% | 38% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 44% | 1% | 6% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 35,582 | 9.9% | 54.1% | 15.8% | – | 2.5% | 15.3% | 2.5% | 38.3% over LD |
Glasgow South
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7–16 Jan 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,001 | 9% | 33% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 48% | 1% | 15% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 40,094 | 11.5% | 51.7% | 11.8% | – | 2.4% | 20.1% | 2.5% | 31.6% over SNP |
Glasgow South West
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-16 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,003 | 6% | 34% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 55% | 1% | 21% over Lab |
| 7–15 Jan 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 4% | 42% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 45% | 1% | 3% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 31,781 | 6.6% | 62.5% | 9.0% | – | – | 16.3% | 5.5% | 46.2% over SNP |
Gordon
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22–29 Jan 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,002 | 11% | 14% | 26% | 4% | 1% | 43% | 1% | 17% over LD |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 48,775 | 18.7% | 20.1% | 36.0% | – | 1.5% | 22.2% | 1.4% | 13.8% over SNP |
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–29 Jan 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 10% | 13% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 50% | 1% | 29% over LD |
| 23–26 May 2014 | ICM/Oakeshott | 500 | 12% | 25% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 32% | 3% | 7% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 47,086 | 13.3% | 22.1% | 40.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 18.7% | 2.5% | 18.6% over Lab |
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19–26 Feb 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 7% | 39% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 45% | 0% | 6% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 45,802 | 9.3% | 64.5% | 9.3% | 1.7% | – | 14.3% | 0.9% | 50.2% over SNP |
Motherwell and Wishaw
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14–22 Jan 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 5% | 39% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 50% | 1% | 11% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 39,123 | 9.4% | 61.1% | 9.8% | – | – | 18.2% | 1.6% | 42.9% over SNP |
North East Fife
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 16% | 9% | 30% | 4% | 1% | 43% | 1% | 13% over LD |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 40,064 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 44.3% | 2.6% | - | 14.2% | - | 22.6% over Con |
Paisley and Renfrewshire South
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-16 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,005 | 6% | 39% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 50% | 1% | 11% over Lab |
| 22–29 Jan 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 6% | 40% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 48% | 1% | 8% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 39,998 | 9.9% | 59.6% | 9.5% | – | – | 18.1% | 2.9% | 41.5% over SNP |
Ross, Skye and Lochaber
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9-15 Apr 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 7% | 6% | 33% | 2% | 3% | 48% | 1% | 15% over LD |
| 16–26 Feb 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,001 | 8% | 9% | 35% | 2% | 5% | 40% | 1% | 5% over LD |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 34,838 | 12.2% | 15.1% | 52.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 15.1% | 0.8% | 37.5% over Lab |
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–19 Feb 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,001 | 25% | 10% | 20% | 3% | 2% | 39% | 0% | 14% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 45,195 | 30.3% | 13.6% | 38.4% | 0.9% | – | 15.7% | 1.1% | 8.1% over Con |
West Dunbartonshire
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | UKIP | Green | SNP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14–22 Jan 2015 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 6% | 38% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 47% | 1% | 9% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 42,266 | 7.7% | 61.3% | 8.1% | 1.6% | – | 20.1% | 1.2% | 41.2% over SNP |
Wales
Brecon and Radnorshire
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Plaid | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct–1 Nov 2014 | Ashcroft | 553 | 8% | 15% | 27% | 31% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 4% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 38,845 | 2.5% | 10.5% | 36.5% | 46.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 9.6% over Con |
Cardiff Central
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Plaid | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19–22 Sep 2014 | Ashcroft | 542 | 9% | 36% | 17% | 24% | 9% | 5% | <0.5% | 12% over LD |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 36,151 | 3.4% | 28.8% | 21.6% | 41.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 12.6% over Lab |
Cardiff North
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Plaid | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18–27 Jun 2014 | Ashcroft | 1,000 | 7% | 41% | 30% | 6% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 11% over Con |
| 31 Mar–6 Apr 2014 | Ashcroft | 461 | 7% | 41% | 34% | 8% | 8% | 1% | <0.5% | 7% over Con |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 47,630 | 3.3% | 37.1% | 37.5% | 18.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% over Lab |
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Plaid | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8–13 Dec 2014 | Ashcroft | 515 | 16% | 29% | 33% | 4% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 4% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 40,507 | 10.4% | 32.7% | 41.1% | 12.1% | 2.8% | – | 0.9% | 8.5% over Lab |
Vale of Glamorgan
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Plaid | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–12 Feb 2015 | Ashcroft | 532 | 12% | 32% | 38% | 4% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 6% over Lab |
| 6 May 2010 | General Election Results | 48,667 | 5.5% | 32.9% | 41.8% | 15.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 8.8% over Lab |
Multiple constituency polling
Some polls are carried out in specified subsets of marginal constituencies. Most of the polls for Lord Ashcroft were compilations of polls in individual constituencies.
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | No of Seats surveyed | Incumbents by party | Sample size | Con | Lab | UKIP | LD | Green | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–14 Dec 2014 | Ashcroft | 8 | 8 Con | 8,000 | 36% | 35% | 14% | 6% | 5%[16] | 2% |
| 20–29 Nov 2014 | Ashcroft | 4 | 4 Lab | 4,002 | 22% | 37% | 33% | 5% | 2%[17] | 1% |
| 15–24 Nov 2014 | ComRes/ITV News | 40 | 25 Con, 15 Lab | 743 | 31% | 39% | 18% | 7% | 4% | <0.5% |
| 2–27 Oct 2014 | Ashcroft | 12 | 12 Con | 12,008 | 32% | 35% | 23% | 5% | 4% | 1% |
| 10 Sep–3 Oct 2014 | Ashcroft | 11 | 11 Con | 11,002 | 32% | 38% | 18% | 5% | 5% | 1% |
| 18–26 Sep 2014 | ComRes/ITV News | 40 | 25 Con, 15 Lab | 766 | 30% | 41% | 17% | 6% | 5% | 2% |
| 31 Jul–14 Sep 2014 | Ashcroft | 5 | 5 LibDem | 5,000 | 15% | 38% | 10% | 28% | 6% | 3% |
| 31 Jul–6 Sep 2014 | Ashcroft | 17 | 2 Con, 15 LibDem | 8,909 | 32% | 13% | 17% | 32% | 4% | 1% |
| 11 Jul–11 Aug 2014 | Ashcroft | 8 | 8 Con | 8,005 | 30% | 40% | 8% | 17% | 5% | 1% |
| 11 Jul–11 Aug 2014 | Ashcroft | 4 | 4 Lab | 4,001 | 30% | 43% | 9% | 13% | 4% | 1% |
| 18 Jun–16 Jul 2014 | Ashcroft | 14 | 14 Con | 14,004 | 31% | 38% | 4% | 21% | 4% | 2% |
| 18–25 Jun 2014 | ComRes/ITV News | 40 | 25 Con, 15 Lab | 795 | 31% | 36% | 17% | 7% | 6% | 3% |
| 11–22 Jun 2014 | Ashcroft | 4 | 4 LD | 1,963 | 12% | 47% | 10% | 19% | 9% | 2% |
| 11 May–14 Jun 2014 | Ashcroft | 17 | 6 Con, 11 LibDem | 8,728 | 33% | 14% | 18% | 28% | 6%[18] | 1% |
| 15–20 May 2014 | ComRes/Independent | 40 | 25 Con, 15 Lab | 1,030 | 33% (−4) | 35% (−2) | 17% (+14) | 8% (−10) | 4% | 2% |
| 31 Mar–18 May 2014 | Ashcroft | 26 | 14 Con, 12 Lab | 26,025 | 29% | 41% | 18% | 8% | 4% | |
| 1 Aug–5 Sep 2013 | Ashcroft | 40 | 40 Con | 12,809 | 30% | 35% | 12% | 13% | 10% | |
Explanatory notes
The Lord Ashcroft polls typically ask two voting intention questions, with the second question asking the respondent to think "specifically about your own constituency and the candidates who are likely to stand there".[2] This latter question is reported in the tables above.
Most polling companies are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its disclosure rules; however, Michael Ashcroft, who commissioned many of these polls, is not a BPC member, despite having been invited to join. However, he contracts the conduct of his polls to BPC members.[19]
See also
References and notes
- ↑ Patrick Wintour. "Lib Dem polling brings hope of future coalition role". the Guardian.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 "Introducing the New Statesman Political Index: Lib Dems to win at least 30 seats". newstatesman.com.
- ↑ "Ed Miliband and Doncaster North: a correction (and apology) – Lord Ashcroft Polls". lordashcroftpolls.com.
- ↑ Percentages for UKIP/Others based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
- ↑ Percentages for UKIP/Others based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
- ↑ Percentage for Greens based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
- ↑ Percentages for UKIP/Green/Others based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
- ↑ based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
- ↑ based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
- ↑ Based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/won't say
- ↑ By-election polling
- ↑ This poll originally, erroneously, showed a small lead for the LDs: see http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/sheffield-hallam-doncaster-north-thanet-south/#more-7536
- ↑ Candidates named in the poll.
- ↑ Candidates named in the poll.
- ↑ Share for Greens based on a table that did not further prompt "don't know" and refusers.
- ↑ Based on a mean of the (non-aggregated) shares of 3%, 9%, 3%, 3%, 3%, 5%, 3% and 7% in the eight constituencies
- ↑ Based on non-aggregated shares of 3%, 2%, 2% and 2% in the four constituencies
- ↑ Based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
- ↑ "Sheffield Hallam, Doncaster North and Thanet South". Michael Ashcroft. Retrieved 2015-02-07."Minutes of the Annual General Meeting 2013". British Polling Council. Retrieved 2014-05-19.
P – The dates when the fieldwork for this poll was carried out is unknown, therefore the date of publication has been given.