Opinion polling for the United Kingdom general election, 2005
In the run up to the general election of 2005, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain (i.e. the UK excluding Northern Ireland, which is usually excluded from such voting intention surveys). Results of such polls are displayed below.
The election took place on 5 May 2005. The previous general election was held on 7 June 2001.
Background
Since each MP is elected separately by the first past the post voting system, it is impossible to precisely project a clear election outcome from overall national shares of the vote. Not only can individual constituencies vary markedly from overall voting trends, but individual countries and regions within the nation may have a very different electoral contest that is not properly reflected in overall share of the vote figures.
Therefore, the first past the post system means that the number of MPs elected may not reflect the overall popular vote share across the parties. Thus, it is not necessarily the party with the largest share of the popular vote that ends up with the largest number of MPs. (See details of the elections in 1951 and February 1974) Since 1935 no party has achieved more than 50% of the popular vote in a British general election. The voting system favours parties with relatively concentrated support: a widely distributed vote leaves a party at risk of getting a large vote share but doing poorly in terms of numbers of seats (as the SDP-Liberal Alliance did in the 1980s), whereas parties with localised votes can win seats with a relatively small share of the vote.
That said, in previous elections, approximate forecasting of results were achieved by assuming that the swing in each individual constituency will be the same across the country. This system, known as uniform national swing (UNS) is used by much of the media in Britain to assess and extrapolate electoral fortunes from opinion poll data, though there has been criticism that such predictions may be naive and unreliable, even from providers of such data.[1]
Normally governments can easily survive for a full parliamentary term on a majority of more than 20 seats over all other parties. Below that level there is a danger of by-elections and MPs crossing the floor of the House reducing the government to a minority such that it would be at increased risk of losing a vote of no confidence.
Poll results
Poll results are initially listed in reverse chronological order showing the most recent first, using the date the fieldwork was undertaken, as opposed to the date of publication.
The figure given in the 'lead' column is the lead held by Labour or the Conservatives over the second placed of the two parties.
| Date(s) Conducted | Polling Organisation/Client | Sample Size | Labour | Conservative | Liberal Democrats | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 May 2005 | 2005 Election Results (GB only) | 27,148,975 | 36.2% | 33.2% | 22.7% | 7.9% | 3.0% over Con |
| 3–4 May 2005 | Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard | 1,164 | 38% | 33% | 23% | 8% | 5% over Con |
| 2–3 May 2005 | Populus/The Times | 1174 | 38% | 32% | 21% | 8% | 6% over Con |
| 1–3 May 2005 | ICM/Guardian | 1,178 | 38% | 32% | 22% | 8% | 6% over Con |
| 29 April – 2 May 2005 | Populus/The Times | 866 | 41% | 27% | 23% | 9% | 14% over Con |
| 27–30 April 2005 | Populus/The Times | 863 | 42% | 29% | 21% | 8% | 13% over Con |
| 25–28 April 2005 | Populus/The Times | 853 | 40% | 31% | 22% | 7% | 9% over Con |
| 24–27 April 2005 | Populus/The Times | 841 | 40% | 31% | 21% | 8% | 9% over Con |
| 24–26 April 2005 | ICM/Guardian | 1,209 | 40% | 32% | 21% | 5% | 8% over Con |
| 23–26 April 2005 | Populus/The Times | 835 | 40% | 31% | 21% | 8% | 9% over Con |
| 22–25 April 2005 | Populus/The Times | 831 | 40% | 31% | 21% | 8% | 9% over Con |
| 21–24 April 2005 | Populus/The Times | 819 | 41% | 33% | 19% | 7% | 8% over Con |
| 20–23 April 2005 | Populus/The Times | 798 | 41% | 32% | 20% | 7% | 9% over Con |
| 19–22 April 2005 | Populus/The Times Online | 798 | 41% | 33% | 20% | 6% | 8% over Con |
| 18–21 April 2005 | Populus/The Times | 806 | 40% | 33% | 20% | 7% | 7% over Con |
| 17–20 April 2005 | Populus/The Times | 836 | 39% | 34% | 20% | 7% | 5% over Con |
| 17–19 April 2005 | ICM/Guardian | 1,163 | 39% | 33% | 22% | 7% | 6% over Con |
| 16–19 April 2005 | Populus/The Times | 863 | 39% | 33% | 21% | 7% | 6% over Con |
| 14–17 April 2005 | Populus/The Times | 586 | 40% | 31% | 21% | 8% | 9% over Con |
| 10–12 April 2005 | ICM/Guardian | 1,169 | 39% | 33% | 22% | 7% | 6% over Con |
| 1–3 April 2005 | ICM/Guardian | 973 | 37% | 34% | 21% | 8% | 3% over Con |
| 1–3 April 2005 | Populus/The Times | 812 | 37% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 2% over Con |
| 18–20 March 2005 | ICM/Guardian | 716 | 40% | 32% | 20% | 7% | 8% over Con |
| 4–6 March 2005 | Populus/The Times | 831 | 39% | 32% | 20% | 9% | 7% over Con |
| 18–20 February 2005 | ICM/Guardian | 1,013[2] | 37% | 34% | 21% | 8% | 3% over Con |
| 4–6 February 2005 | Populus/The Times | 814 | 41% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 9% over Con |
| 21–23 January 2005 | ICM/Guardian | 1,000[2] | 38% | 31% | 21% | 9% | 6% over Con |
| 7–9 January 2005 | Populus/The Times | 848 | 38% | 33% | 20% | 9% | 5% over Con |
| 16–19 December 2004 | ICM/Guardian | 1,002[2] | 40% | 31% | 21% | 7% | 8% over Con |
| 3–5 December 2004 | Populus/The Times | 826 | 37% | 33% | 20% | 10% | 4% over Con |
| 12–14 November 2004 | ICM/Guardian | 830 | 38% | 30% | 22% | 10% | 8% over Con |
| 22–24 October 2004 | ICM/Guardian | 1,011 | 37% | 31% | 23% | 9% | 6% over Con |
| 21–23 September 2004 | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2033 | 36% | 34% | 21% | 9% | 2% over Con |
| 17–19 September 2004 | ICM/Guardian | 1,005 | 36% | 32% | 22% | 10% | 4% over Con |
| 2–5 September 2004 | Populus/The Times | 608 | 31% | 30% | 26% | 13% | 1% over Con |
| 13–15 August 2004 | ICM/Guardian | 1,005 | 36% | 33% | 22% | 9% | 3% over Con |
| 30 July – 1 August 2004 | Populus/The Times | 570 | 32% | 32% | 24% | 12% | 0% |
| 16–18 July 2004 | ICM/Guardian | 1,007 | 35% | 30% | 25% | 10% | 5% over Con |
| 2–3 July 2004 | Populus/The Times | 556 | 33% | 29% | 24% | 14% | 4% over Con |
| 18–20 June 2004 | Ipsos MORI/Financial Times | 966 | 32% | 27% | 22% | 19% | 6% over Con |
| 11–13 June 2004 | ICM/Guardian | 1,009 | 34% | 31% | 22% | 13% | 3% over Con |
| 10 June 2004 | 2004 European election | ||||||
| 4–6 June 2004 | Populus/The Times | 589 | 31% | 29% | 22% | 18% | 3% over Con |
| 20–23 May 2004 | ICM/Guardian | 1,001 | 39% | 34% | 20% | 7% | 5% over Con |
| 7–9 May 2004 | Populus/The Times | 578 | 32% | 36% | 22% | 10% | 4% over Lab |
| 16–18 April 2004 | ICM/Guardian | 1,002 | 38% | 33% | 22% | 6% | 5% over Con |
| 10–11 March 2004 | ICM/Guardian | 1,014 | 37% | 35% | 21% | 7% | 2% over Con |
| 5–7 March 2004 | Populus/The Times | 573 | 36% | 34% | 22% | 8% | 2% over Con |
| 20–22 February 2004 | ICM/Guardian | 1,006 | 36% | 34% | 21% | 8% | 2% over Con |
| 6–8 February 2004 | Populus/The Times | 580 | 36% | 31% | 25% | 8% | 5% over Con |
| 16–18 January 2004 | ICM/Guardian | 1,007 | 39% | 34% | 20% | 7% | 5% over Con |
| 2–4 January 2004 | Populus/The Times | 566 | 40% | 35% | 18% | 7% | 5% over Con |
| 12–14 December 2003 | ICM/Guardian[3] | 1,001 | 38% | 33% | 21% | 8% | 5% over Con |
| 5–7 December 2003 | Populus/The Times | 557 | 35% | 33% | 22% | 10% | 2% over Con |
| 14–16 November 2003 | ICM/Guardian[3] | 1,002 | 38% | 33% | 21% | 8% | 5% over Con |
| 7–9 November 2003 | Populus/The Times | 554 | 35% | 31% | 24% | 10% | 4% over Con |
| 17–19 October 2003 | ICM/Guardian[3] | 1,004 | 38% | 33% | 21% | 8% | 5% over Con |
| 3–5 October 2003 | Populus/The Times | 524 | 36% | 28% | 27% | 9% | 8% over Con |
| 23–25 September 2003 | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2306 | 31% | 32% | 30% | 7% | 1% over Lab |
| 19–21 September 2003 | ICM/Guardian | 1,002 | 35% | 30% | 28% | 8% | 5% over Con |
| 5–6 September 2003 | Populus/The Times | 511 | 37% | 35% | 20% | 8% | 2% over Con |
| 15–17 August 2003 | ICM/Guardian | 1,001 | 37% | 32% | 22% | 9% | 5% over Con |
| 1–3 August 2003 | Populus/The Times | 564 | 35% | 33% | 25% | 7% | 2% over Con |
| 22–24 July 2003 | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2219 | 34% | 37% | 22% | 7% | 3% over Lab |
| 18–20 July 2003 | ICM/Guardian | 1,003 | 36% | 34% | 22% | 9% | 2% over Con |
| 20–22 June 2003 | ICM/Guardian | 1,001 | 38% | 34% | 21% | 7% | 4% over Con |
| 13–15 June 2003 | Populus/The Times | 513 | 36% | 34% | 21% | 9% | 2% over Con |
| 16–18 May 2003 | ICM/Guardian | 1,000 | 42% | 29% | 21% | 8% | 13% over Con |
| 2–4 March 2003 | Populus/The Times | 565 | 35% | 34% | 23% | 8% | 1% over Con |
| 22–24 April 2003 | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2390 | 40% | 32% | 21% | 7% | 8% over Con |
| 17–19 April 2003 | ICM/Guardian | 1,000 | 42% | 30% | 21% | 7% | 12% over Con |
| 26–27 March 2003 | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2282 | 40% | 33% | 20% | 7% | 7% over Con |
| 19 March 2003 | Invasion of Iraq | ||||||
| 10–12 March 2003 | Populus/The Times | 540 | 42% | 29% | 22% | 7% | 13% over Con |
| 14–16 March 2003 | ICM/Guardian | 1,002 | 38% | 32% | 24% | 6% | 6% over Con |
| 7–9 March 2003 | Populus/The Times | 498 | 34% | 34% | 24% | 8% | 0% |
| 14–16 February 2003 | ICM/Guardian | 1,003 | 39% | 31% | 22% | 8% | 8% over Con |
| 7–9 February 2003 | Populus/The Times | 555 | 35% | 34% | 25% | 6% | 1% over Con |
| 28–30 January 2003 | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1949 | 36% | 32% | 24% | 8% | 4% over Con |
| 17–19 January 2003 | ICM/Guardian | 1,002 | 43% | 30% | 21% | 6% | 13% over Con |
| 3–5 January 2003 | Populus/The Times | 565 | 38% | 31% | 25% | 6% | 7% over Con |
| 13–15 December 2002 | ICM/Guardian | 1,006 | 41% | 27% | 23% | 8% | 14% over Con |
| 15–17 November 2002 | ICM/Guardian | 1,000 | 42% | 29% | 22% | 7% | 13% over Con |
| 18–20 October 2002 | ICM/Guardian | 1,001 | 43% | 32% | 20% | 6% | 11% over Con |
| 11–13 October 2002 | Populus/The Times | 1,001 | 42% | 30% | 21% | 6% | 12% over Con |
| 20–22 September 2002 | ICM/Guardian | 1,000 | 39% | 34% | 20% | 7% | 5% over Con |
| 5–7 September 2002 | Populus/The Times | 610 | 39% | 33% | 21% | 6% | 6% over Con |
| 23–25 August 2002 | ICM/Guardian | 1,003 | 41% | 32% | 21% | 6% | 9% over Con |
| 26–27 July 2002 | ICM/Guardian | 1,002 | 42% | 33% | 20% | 4% | 9% over Con |
| 21–23 June 2002 | ICM/Guardian | 1,002 | 42% | 32% | 20% | 7% | 10% over Con |
| 17–19 May 2002 | ICM/Guardian | 1,003 | 42% | 34% | 19% | 5% | 8% over Con |
| 20–21 April 2002 | ICM/Guardian | 1,000 | 45% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 16% over Con |
| 15–17 March 2002 | ICM/Guardian | 1,001 | 43% | 34% | 17% | 6% | 9% over Con |
| 15–17 February 2002 | ICM/Guardian | 1,003 | 47% | 30% | 18% | 5% | 17% over Con |
| 18–20 January 2002 | ICM/Guardian | 1,003 | 45% | 30% | 19% | 6% | 15% over Con |
| 14–16 December 2001 | ICM/Guardian | 1,000 | 44% | 29% | 20% | 7% | 15% over Con |
| 16–18 November 2001 | ICM/Guardian | 1,004 | 46% | 29% | 19% | 6% | 17% over Con |
| 19–20 October 2001 | ICM/Guardian | 1,000 | 47% | 29% | 19% | 5% | 18% over Con |
| 14–16 September 2001 | ICM/Guardian | 1,007 | 46% | 29% | 20% | 5% | 17% over Con |
| 17–19 August 2001 | ICM/Guardian | 1,004 | 46% | 30% | 17% | 7% | 16% over Con |
| 13–14 July 2001 | ICM/Guardian | 1,001 | 46% | 30% | 18% | 6% | 16% over Con |
| 31 May - 1 June 2001 | Ipsos MORI/The Sunday Telegraph | 1,021 | 50% | 27% | 17% | 6% | 23% over Con |
| 7 June 2001 | 2001 Election Results | 26,368,530 | 42.0% | 32.7% | 18.8% | 6.5% | 9.3% over Con |
References
- ↑ Predicting Results UK Polling Report
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 The number of responses used to calculate the voting intention was not provided; the total number of participants in the poll is therefore listed.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 The responses to the questions on voting intention are not included in this document; they have therefore instead been taken from Guardian/ICM polls: every one since 1984.