National Assembly for Wales election, 2016

National Assembly for Wales election, 2016
Wales
5 May 2016
All 60 seats to the National Assembly for Wales
31 seats needed for a majority
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Carwyn Jones Andrew R. T. Davies Leanne Wood
Party Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru
Leader's seat Bridgend South Wales Central South Wales Central
Last election 30 seats, 42.3% 14 seats, 25.0% 11 seats, 19.3%
  Fourth party
 
Leader Kirsty Williams
Party Liberal Democrats
Leader's seat Brecon and Radnorshire
Last election 5 seats, 10.6%
First Minister before election

Carwyn Jones
Labour

 Elected First Minister

TBD
TBD

This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
Wales

British politics portal

The National Assembly for Wales election 2016 is the next election for the National Assembly. The poll will be held on Thursday, 5 May 2016 and will decide the incumbency for all the assembly's seats. It will be the fifth election for seats in the National Assembly for Wales (previous elections having been held in 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011), and the third election taken under the rules of the Government of Wales Act 2006 (though several rules have now been changed by the Wales Act 2014).

The previous election resulted in gains for the then incumbent Welsh Labour Party, which gained four seats compared to the previous election and currently holds 30 seats, exactly half of the Assembly, one short of an overall majority. The party also secured a swing in its favour of over 10 percentage points. The Welsh Conservatives are currently the largest opposition party with 14 seats, a net gain of two from 2007, but former party leader Nick Bourne lost his seat. The junior party in the government coalition, the nationalist Plaid Cymru, suffered a drop in its vote and lost 4 seats. The Welsh Liberal Democrats lost significantly in the popular vote and returned five AMs, a loss of one.[1])

British, Irish, Commonwealth and European Union citizens living in Wales aged eighteen or over on election day will be entitled to vote. It will be held on the same day as elections for the Scottish Parliament, the Northern Irish Assembly and a number of local elections in England. This election and elections to the other devolved chambers have been delayed by a year from 2015 to 2016. This is a result of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, which ensured that the Next United Kingdom general election will take place on 7 May 2015.[2] General elections to the Welsh Assembly have now been permanently moved to a five-year cycle with the Wales Act 2014.

Electoral method

In general elections for the National Assembly for Wales, each voter has two votes in a mixed member system. The first vote may be used to vote for a candidate to become the Assembly Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote may be used to vote for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the d'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.

The previous restriction on the ability to stand in both a constituency and a regional list was lifted by the Wales Act 2014. The Act also removes the ability to dual mandate with the House of Commons — an Assembly member will no longer allowed to also be an MP.

Opinion polls

Constituency Vote (FPTP)


Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample sizeLab Cons Plaid Lib Dem UKIP Others Lead
5 - 9 March 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,279 37% 22% 20% 6% 11% 5% 15%
19 - 21 January 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,036 34% 21% 18% 7% 13% 7% 13%
2 - 5 December 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,131 35% 22% 19% 6% 12% 6% 13%
8 – 11 September 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,025 36% 21% 19% 6% 12% 6% 15%
26 June – 1 July 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,035 39% 20% 19% 8% 13% 5% 19%
11–22 April 2014 YouGov/IPPR, Cardiff University, Edinburgh University 1,027 41% 21% 20% 8% 7% 2% 20%
10–12 February 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,250 42% 21% 19% 9% 5% 3% 21%
2–4 December 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,001 43% 19% 20% 9% 7% 3% 23%
18–22 July 2013 YouGov/Elections in Wales Blog 1,012 47% 19% 17% 8% 6% 3% 28%
28 Feb 2013 Ynys Môn by-election, 2013
18-20 Feb 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,007 46% 21% 17% 10% 5% 2% 25%
5 May 2011 National Assembly for Wales election, 2011 (constituency) 949,252 42.3% 25.0% 19.3% 10.6% N/A 2.8% 17.3%

Regional Vote (AMS)

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample sizeLab Cons Plaid Lib Dem UKIP Green Others Lead
5–9 March 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,279 33% 22% 21% 5% 12% 5% 2% 11%
19–21 January 2015 [fn 1] YouGov/ITV Wales 1,036 32% 20% 15% 8% 16% 8% 2% 12%
2–5 December 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,131 31% 20% 19% 6% 15% 7% 2% 11%
8 - 11 September 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,025 31% 21% 16% 5% 17% 7% 3% 10%
26 June – 1 July 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,035 34% 21% 18% 5% 16% 4% 3% 13%
12 – 14 May 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,092 35% 19% 17% 7% 14% 6% 2% 16%
11–22 April 2014 YouGov/IPPR, Cardiff University, Edinburgh University 1,027 37% 21% 19% 7% 10% 4% 2% 16%
10–12 February 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,250 39% 19% 17% 9% 10% 6% 20%
2–4 December 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,001 40% 19% 15% 9% 10% 7% 21%
18–22 July 2013 YouGov/Elections in Wales Blog 1,012 25% 12% 23% 9% 16% 14% 2%
28 Feb 2013 Ynys Môn by-election, 2013
18-20 Feb 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,007 26% 14% 26% 8% 13% 6% 7% Tie
5 May 2011 National Assembly for Wales election, 2011 (regional) 949,388 36.9% 22.5% 17.9% 8.0% 4.6% 3.4% 6.7% 14.4%

See also

References

  1. ↑ name="Wales Elections">"Assembly national votes and seats by party, and links to constituency results". BBC Online. 16 March 2011. Retrieved 26 October 2013.
  2. ↑ Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 section 5
  1. ↑ Seat estimates are based on constituency and regional poll.