Madrilenian parliamentary election, 2015

Madrilenian parliamentary election, 2015
Community of Madrid
24 May 2015
All 129 seats in the Assembly of Madrid
65 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 4,880,471[1] Increase5.6%
 
Leader Cristina Cifuentes Ángel Gabilondo Luis García Montero
Party PP PSOE IU
Leader since 6 March 2015 21 February 2015 27 February 2015
Last election 72 seats, 51.7% 36 seats, 26.3% 13 seats, 9.6%
Current seats 72 36 13
Seats needed Steady Increase29 Increase52
 
Leader Ramón Marcos Ignacio Aguado José Manuel López
Party UPyD C's Podemos
Leader since 18 October 2014 2 March 2015 1 April 2015
Last election 8 seats, 6.3% 0 seats, 0.2% Did not stand
Current seats 8 0 0
Seats needed Increase57 Increase65 Increase65
Incumbent President

Ignacio González
PP

The 2015 Madrilenian parliamentary election will be held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 10th Assembly of Madrid, the unicameral regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Madrid. At stake will be all 129 seats in the Assembly, determining the President of the Community of Madrid.

The election will be held concurrently with the regional elections for 12 other autonomous communities, as well as the 2015 municipal elections.

Cristina Cifuentes will run on behalf of the People's Party (PP), after Esperanza Aguirre's resignation in 2012 and in incumbent President Ignacio González' forced withdrawal as a result of several scandals. University professor Ángel Gabilondo will run as the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) candidate after a party internal crisis resulted in the dismissing of Tomás Gómez. Also running will be ascending parties Podemos and Citizens (C's).

Opposition parties will struggle to end the PP absolute majority 20-year rule in the region.

Electoral system

The number of seats in the regional Assembly is determined by the population count, with 1 seat per each 50,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 25,000, according to the most updated census data.[2] As the updated population census for the 2015 election is the corresponding to year 2014 (6,454,440), the Assembly size is set to 129 seats

All Assembly members are elected in a single multi-member district, consisting of the Community's territory (the province of Madrid), using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Voting is on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 5% of valid votes (which include blank ballots—for none of the above) in all of the community are entitled to enter the seat distribution.[3]

Background

After the 2011 regional election, the People's Party was re-elected for a fifth consecutive term in office with an absolute majority of seats, with the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party under Tomás Gómez obtaining the worst result of its history in the region. President Esperanza Aguirre, which had renewed the office for a third term (Aguirre had succeeded Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón as regional premier in 2003), resigned on 17 September 2012, allegedly a result of health issues, but also for "personal reasons". She was succeeded in the Presidency by her Deputy, Ignacio González.[4]

Opinion polls from 2012 predicted a drop in vote support for the People's Party, to the point that it could lose the absolute majority it had enjoyed from 2003. The same polls had shown that the PSOE remained unable to capitalize on the PP government electoral wear. On the 2014 European Parliament election, both parties obtained historic lows: with 29.9%, the People's Party result in the region was the lowest since the 1989 election, while PSOE's result at 18.9% was the party's lowest score ever. Newly-created party Podemos was able to poll at 11.3%, placing itself as the third political force of the community and within striking distance of PSOE.[5] Podemos' growth in opinion polls since mid-to-late 2014 at the expense of PSOE's vote spectrum inspired fears within the party that it could be displaced to third place both regionally and nationally, thus ceasing to be the main reference party of the left ideology in both Spain and Madrid.[6]

On 11 February 2015, PSOE Secretary-General Pedro Sánchez removed Tomás Gómez, PSM candidate for the 2015 election,[7] from the party's regional leadership.[8][9] The decision came, allegedly, after suspicions of Gómez being involved in a tram project corruption scandal during his time as Mayor of Parla,[10][11] though electoral motives may have helped hasten the move, as Gómez was deemed a bad candidate as Rafael Simancas later recognized.[12] Ángel Gabilondo, former Education Minister in José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero Cabinet from 2009 to 2011, was selected as PSM-PSOE candidate replacing Gómez on 21 February 2015.[13]

In United Left, Tania Sánchez, elected as party's presidential candidate in a primary election held on 1 December 2014,[14] had left the party on 4 February 2015 alongside a number of supporters, over an internal conflict with the party's regional leadership, involved in the Caja Madrid "black" credit cards scandal.[15] Luis García Montero, a Spanish poet and literary critic, was selected to replace Sánchez' as IU candidate to the Madrid Community.[16]

The People's Party had not yet proclaimed a candidate as of February 2015, despite incumbent President Ignacio González widely presumed to stand for a second term in office.[17] On 2 March 2015, Spanish newspaper El Mundo's headlines pointed that González' had asked National Police officers to withhold information over an ongoing investigation on him about a possible tax fraud in the purchase of a luxury penthouse.[18] González announced that he was the victim of policial 'blackmail' and reiterated his wish to be his party's candidate for the 2015 election.[19] However, rumours arose in the media that the party's leadership had withdrawn their support from González and expected him to eventually give up on his intention to run.[20] Finally, on 6 March 2015, incumbent Government Delegate in Madrid Cristina Cifuentes was chosen as PP candidate for the autonomous community, while former regional President Esperanza Aguirre was named as candidate to the Madrid City Council.[21]

Opinion polls

Vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Seats

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 65 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Madrid Assembly.

Results

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Madrid Assembly election results
Party Vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Won +/−
People's Party (PP)
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)
United Left-The Greens (IU-LV)
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)
Animal Rights Party (PACMA)
Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)
Citizens-Party of the Citizenry (C's)
Humanist Party (PH)
Spanish Alternative (AES)
Union for Leganés (ULEG)
Castilian Party (PCAS)
Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn)
We Can (Podemos) New
Vox (VOX) New
Blank Seats (Eb) New
Spanish Falange of the JONS (FE-JONS) New
Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero) New
Individual Freedom Party (P-LIB) New
Spain 2000 (E-2000) New
For Them (A por Ellos) New
Blue Party of Progresist Right (PADP) New
The National Coalition (LCN) New
Let's Win-Madrid (Ganemos) New
Citizen Rights' Party-Green Coalition (C's Verde) New
Blank ballots
Total 100.00 129 ±0
Valid votes
Invalid votes
Votes cast / turnout
Abstentions
Registered voters
Source:

Notes

  1. ↑ This survey shows its poll results projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other surveys, a rule of three has been applied to the survey projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.

References

  1. ↑ National Statistics Institute - INE
  2. ↑ "Statute of Autonomy of Madrid; Title I. Chapter I. Of the Assembly of Madrid.)".
  3. ↑ "Law 11/1986, of 16 December, electoral of the Community of Madrid; Chapter VII. The electoral system.".
  4. ↑ "Esperanza Aguirre resigns" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-09-17.
  5. ↑ "PP wins in Madrid but loses 19 points, while the PSOE collapses" (in Spanish). Madrid Press. 2014-05-26.
  6. ↑ "PSOE fears that the CIS places it in 3rd place in vote estimation" (in Spanish). ABC. 2015-02-04.
  7. ↑ "PSM proclaims Tomás Gómez as candidate to the Presidency of the Community of Madrid" (in Spanish). RTVE. 2014-10-03.
  8. ↑ "Pedro Sánchez dismisses Tomás Gómez and creates a interim committee in the PSM" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-02-11.
  9. ↑ "Gabilondo and Simancas, among the possible successors of Tomás Gómez" (in Spanish). Antena 3. 2015-02-11.
  10. ↑ "Sánchez gives a blow of authority and expels Tomás Gómez as leader in Madrid" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-02-11.
  11. ↑ "Gómez clings on to his office and threatens to go to court" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-02-11.
  12. ↑ "Simancas tell Varcarce that the election will be democratic "but faster" because of the "exceptional" moment" (in Spanish). Europa Press. 2015-02-16.
  13. ↑ "PSOE names Ángel Gabilondo candidate to the Community of Madrid" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-02-21.
  14. ↑ "Tania Sánchez, elected as candidate to the Presidency of the Community of Madrid" (in Spanish). Antena 3. 2014-12-01.
  15. ↑ "Tania Sanchez leaves IU to promote a party of "popular unity"" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-02-05.
  16. ↑ "Conditioned 'yes' from Luis García Montero" (in Spanish). Cadena SER. 2015-02-27.
  17. ↑ "PP, PSOE and IU, without candidates in the Community of Madrid" (in Spanish). El Correo. 2015-02-11.
  18. ↑ "Ignacio González sought help from police to hide the penthouse's case" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-03-02.
  19. ↑ "Ignacio González denounces policial blackmail and says he doesn't renounce to be candidate" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2015-03-02.
  20. ↑ "PP expects Ignacio González expected to step back in his candidacy" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-03-03.
  21. ↑ "Rajoy ignores González and choses Cifuentes as candidate for Madrid" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-03-06.

External links