Intended Nationally Determined Contributions

Leading up to the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference to be held in Paris, France in 2015, countries have been asked to publicly declare what actions they intend to take under a new global agreement, by March 2015. The country commitments, known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions or INDCs, are expected to indicate through their form and strength what shape any 2015 agreement might take.^[1]

Process

The INDCs combine the top-down system of a United Nations climate agreement with bottom-up system-in elements through which countries put forward their agreements in the context of their own national circumstances, capabilities and priorities, within the ambition to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions enough to keep global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius.^[1]

The INDCs will not only contain steps taken towards emission reductions, but also aim to address steps taken to adapt to climate change impacts, and what support the country needs-or will provide to address climate change. After the initial submission of INDCs in March 2015, an assessment phase follows to review and if needed adjust submitted INDCs before the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference.^[1]

Submission

Several INDCs are expected to be submitted during March 2015, with a second wave possible during September 2015 as INDCs submitted after October 1, 2015 will not be included in the UNFCCC synthesis report to the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference. Research released by NewClimate Institute for UNFCCC and UNDP concludes that as of March 2015, one third of the 81 surveyed countries have yet to begin their INDC. Approximately another third have started the national discussion, but not proceeded to the technical design. Submission ambitions vary somewhat geographically; for instance, African countries often report the latest intended submission dates.^[2]

On February 27, 2015, Switzerland became the first nation to submit its INDC to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, later followed by the European Union.^[3] As the first country to submit its commitments, Switzerland has experienced a temperature rise of 1.75 °C since 1864, and aim to set up a new policy framework and build on existing strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030. The country does also "support the inclusion of international aviation and shipping on the basis of future internationally agreed rules", although aviation and shipping do not form part of the country's INDC.^[4]

The European Union has submitted its climate action plan in the form of quantifiable INDCs, in line with objectives to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030, using the year 1990 as the baseline year with which emission reductions are compared. However, aviation is not explicitly mentioned in the INDCs. Since then, the EU has been criticized by members of civil society claiming that its 40% emission reduction target is not ambitious enough.^[4]

India is expected to submit its INDC by June 2015.^[4]

Challenges

Of surveyed countries, approximately 85% report that they feel challenged by the short timeframe available to develop the INDC. Other challenges reported include difficulty to secure high-level political support, a lack of certainty and guidance on what should be included in INDCs, and limited expertise for the assessment of technical options. However, despite challenges, less than a quarter of countries have received international support to prepare their INDCs, and more than a quarter indicate they are still applying for international support.^[5] The INDC process and the challenges it is presenting are unique to each country and there is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach or methodology.^[6]

Opportunities

For Less Developed Countries (LDCs), adopting an ambitious approach to towards their INDC provides many economic and development opportunities. While future of greenhouse gases will largely be determined by the actions of major economies, the approach taken by progressive LDCs will be key to building political momentum ahead of the Paris Conference of the Parties (COP) in December 2015, which will put pressure on the larger economies to take ambitious action. Research by the Climate & Development Knowledge Network and Ricardo-AEA, who are helping to support LDCs through the INDC process shows that opportunities for LDCs include:

• showing that economic growth is compatible with low-carbon and climate-resilient pathways, which will avoid lock-in to high carbon-intensive infrastructure;
• highlighting the adaptation-related benefits of mitigation actions, as well as other co-benefits including poverty alleviation, health, energy access and security;
• capturing the potential for mitigation within planned and potential adaptation activities;
• encouraging other countries to take equivalent action, increasing global ambition and reducing climate impacts;
• attracting financial, capacity-building, technology transfer and other types of international support.^[6]

References