Gaelic football rankings

Gaelic Football Rankings
Rankings as of 29-04-2015
RankChange*TeamPoints
1 Steady Dublin 104.31
2 Steady Kerry 99.47
3 Steady Donegal 97.71
4 Steady Cork 96.91
5 Steady Mayo 96.64
6 Steady Monaghan 95.60
7 Steady Tyrone 89.95
8 Steady Armagh 89.28
9 Steady Meath 89.27
10 Steady Derry 88.95
11 Steady Roscommon 87.34
12 Steady Galway 85.46
13 Steady Down 82.98
14 Steady Laois 81.92
15 Steady Kildare 81.32
16 Steady Tipperary 81.21
17 Steady Cavan 80.25
18 Steady Fermanagh 78.39
19 Steady Sligo 77.02
20 Steady Limerick 74.75
21 Steady Clare 74.5
22 Steady Offaly 73.97
23 Steady Longford 73.83
24 Steady Wexford 73.42
25 Steady Westmeath 73.41
26 Steady Louth 71.67
27 Steady Leitrim 69.31
28 Steady Antrim 69.03
29 Steady Wicklow 61.29
30 Steady London 61.07
31 Steady Carlow 60.92
32 Steady Waterford 58.02
33 Steady New York 57.17
*Change from the previous round of games

The Gaelic football rankings is an unofficial ranking system for men's county teams in Gaelic football. The county teams are ranked based on their game results, with the most successful teams being ranked highest. The point system used is based on that used by the IRB [1] with some modifications.

In this exchange-based point system, points are awarded based on the results of National Football League and All-Ireland Senior Football Championship games. The rankings have been computed based on results from the 3rd of May 1925 and were presented in an abbreviated format for the first time in March 2014.[2]

Uses of the rankings

The rankings are used by the followers of the GAA counties to rank the progression and current ability of their team. To date, the rankings have not been officially used by the Gaelic Athletic Association.

Current calculation method

The point system is calculated using a 'Points Exchange' system and is based on that used by the IRB [3] with some modifications. Teams receive points from each other based upon the match result – whatever one side gains, the other loses. The exchanges are based on the match result, the margin of victory, the previous rating points of each team, with a weighting for competition type and an allowance for home advantage, if relevant. As the system aims to reflect current team strengths, past successes or losses will fade and be superseded by more recent results. Although matches often result in an exchange of points, 'predictable' results lead to very minor changes, and may result in no change to either side's rating and subsequent ranking.

The maximum number of points which can be exchanged after a game is currently 4.50 in the National Football League and 9.00 in the Senior Football Championship.

Rules

The system ensures that it is representative of the teams' performance despite playing differing numbers of matches per annum, and the differing strength of opposition that teams have to face. The factors taken into account are as follows:

Match result

For each match played, points exchanges are awarded for the following five outcomes:

Match status

Different competitions have different importance to teams, and the ranking system has tried to respect this by using a weighting system, where the most significant matches are adjudged to be in the Championship. Points exchanges are tripled during the All-Ireland Senior Football Championship to recognise the importance of this competition. Historically, points exchanges during the National Football League were not modified (i.e. had a weighting of 1, one-third of the weighting of Championship games). However, since 2009 the League appears to have increased in competitiveness, and since then, points exchanges have been multiplied by 1.5 during the league (indicating that the results of League games are now weighted at half those of championship games). No further weightings are used within the League or Championship competitions. Matches played in the winter season (O'Byrne Cup, Dr McKenna Cup, McGrath Cup, FBD Insurance League), challenge matches or other secondary competitions are not included.

Opposition strength

A win against a very highly rated opponent is a considerably greater achievement than a win against a low-rated opponent, so the strength of the opposing team is a factor. Thus match results are more important than margins of victory in producing accurate rankings. This is because when a highly rated team plays a lowly rated team and manages to beat them comprehensively, it does not necessarily indicate how either team will perform in the future. The IRB ranking system proposes that if the rating point spread between teams is 10 or greater, the higher rated team will not gain any rating points should they win (conversely, if the lower rated team were to win, the maximum possible points would be exchanged). For the Gaelic Football Rankings, the rating point spread has been extended to 15 in order to take into account the fact that teams with a rating 15 points inferior occasionally beat the higher-rated team, a circumstance which rarely occurs in rugby.

Home advantage

When calculating points exchanges, the home side is handicapped by treating them as though they are three rating points better than their current rating. This results in the home side gaining fewer points for winning and losing more points for losing, and in doing so, aids to cancel out any advantage that a side may have by playing in front of their home crowd. Although Croke Park is not the official home venue of the Dublin County Board, it is treated as such, as 88% of all home games played by Dublin between 1925 and 2014 have been played at this venue (99% of championship fixtures and 81% of league fixtures).

Initial ratings, new and dormant counties

All counties were initially allocated 80 rating points, with the exception of New York and London who were both allocated 60 rating points. The reason for allocating lower initial rating points to both New York and London was to compensate for these teams' reduced exposure to other teams (i.e. they play significantly less games than the 32 counties from the island of Ireland).

Kilkenny, who have not competed in either League or Championship since May 2012 have been temporarily suspended from the rankings until they rejoin either competition. Their rating point score on suspension was 44.90, and on that date, they were ranked last, in 34th position.

Formula and examples

The rating points exchange is calculated as follows:

PEX = CR_{O,D} * C_{wt} * Sc_{wt}
CR_{O} = 1 - \frac{\Delta RT}{15} ; CR_{D} = -\frac{\Delta RT}{15}
\Delta RT = Previous RT_{A} - Previous RT_{B}

Where:

PEX = Point exchange
CR_{O} = Core rating where there is an outcome (i.e. not a draw); max = 2.00, min = 0.00
CR_{D} = Core rating where the result is a draw ; max = 1.00, min = 0.00
C_{wt} = Competition weighting (1.5 for NFL, 3 for SFC)
Sc_{wt} = Score weighting (1.5 for winning margins greater than 5 points)
\Delta RT = Rating difference between teams prior to match
Previous RT_{A} = Previous rating points of Team A (+3 if Team A play at home)
Previous RT_{B} = Previous rating points of Team B (+3 if Team B play at home)

Example 1

CompetitionVenueRT Team ART Team BTeam A ScTeam B Sc New RT Team ANew RT Team B
NFLTeam A Home73701-121-10 73.969.1
PEX = (1 - \frac{\Delta RT}{15}) * C_{wt} * Sc_{wt} = (1 -\frac{(73+3)-70}{15}) * 1.5 * 1 = 0.6 * 1.5 * 1 = 0.9

Example 2

CompetitionVenueRT Team ART Team BTeam A ScTeam B Sc New RT Team ANew RT Team B
SFCNeutral venue84960-162-09 88.891.2
PEX = (1 - \frac{\Delta RT}{15}) * C_{wt} * Sc_{wt} = (1 - \frac{84-96}{15}) * 3 * 1 = 1.8 * 3 * 1 = 4.8

Example 3

CompetitionVenueRT Team ART Team BTeam A ScTeam B Sc New RT Team ANew RT Team B
SFCTeam B Home76642-142-14 74.265.8
PEX = -\frac{\Delta RT}{15} * C_{wt} * Sc_{wt} = -\frac{76-(64+3)}{15} * 3 * 1 = -0.6 * 3 * 1) = -1.8

Data and model manipulation

Data

Match results dating from the 3rd of May 1925 were used to complete the ratings from which the ranking system is derived. As of the 1st of May 2015, the results of 11,241 games have been included in the calculations used to compile the current rankings. However, the rankings are only reported from the start of the All-Ireland Football Championship of 1930 – this allowed a "bedding-in" period of 5 years for teams to find their level and for the rankings to present a true reflection of team's standing. Although results from pre-1925 are available, the introduction of the National Football League in 1926 greatly increased the number of games played by county teams, and thereby increased the accuaracy of the ranking system. Historical data (pre-2012) were extracted from the series of GAA Statistics books published by L O'Dare.[4] More recent data were extracted from the archive section of www.hoganstand.com.[5] Current results are also taken from www.hoganstand.com.[6]

In total, the results of 73 games are missing from the dataset stretching back to 1925. This represents less than 0.7% of the total number of games. In addition, the venues for 63 games are unknown. The results of games with unknown venues are included in the rating calculations, with the venues allocated as neutral.

Betwen 1977 and 1981, "away" league finals were organised, normally between the winners of Division 2 of the National Football League and an overseas team, such as New York, London, Warwickshire or Lancashire. As Warwickshire or Lancashire teams were not regular competitors in other competitions, the results of games involving Warwickshire or Lancashire were not considered in the calculation of the rankings.

In the earlier years of the GAA, it was not uncommon for the Senior Football Championship to commence prior to the staging of the National Football League final. In addition, the autumn schedule of the National Football league occassionally commenced before All-Ireland final day. In order to provide a true reflection of the ranking of each team at the conclusion of a competition (either the Senior Football Championsip or the National Football League), the results of games were ordered in the following sequence: first by year of competition, second by competition name and third by date.

Model manipulation

Although the calculation of the ratings is purely mathematical, the choice of parameters used for home advantage, championship weighting, score weighting and rating points spread were subjectively chosen so that, in the vast majority of years, the All-Ireland Champions were the number 1 ranked team at the end of that particular championship. In only 3 instances did the All-Ireland champions not finish as the number 1 ranked team. The exceptions to this were in 1933, 1942 and 1947 when the All-Ireland champions Cavan, Dublin and Cavan again, respectively, were beaten to number one position by Kerry teams which had won All-Ireland championships from 1930 to 1932, from 1939 to 1941 and in 1946.

Ranking records

Detailed view of number 1 ranked Gaelic football team - 1930:2014

In keeping with the common belief that the team which wins the All-Ireland championship is the best team at that particular moment in time, the All-Ireland winners have, for the vast majority of cases, occupied the number one ranking position immediately following their success.

It is of no surprise, therefore, that Kerry hold the record for longest period at number 1 and for overall time spent at number one.

Longest individual period at number 1[note 1]
TeamPeriod (days)FromTo
Kerry171201/01/193009/09/1934
Kerry145624/09/197819/09/1982
Kerry93804/12/198329/06/1986
Offaly75618/07/197112/08/1973
Kerry72127/07/196918/07/1971
Kerry68622/09/194009/08/1942
Kerry68620/08/200606/07/2008
Down67225/09/196029/07/1962
Cavan64409/11/194714/08/1949
Galway63726/09/196525/06/1967
Cork53926/02/198919/08/1990
Meath49726/07/198704/12/1988
Mayo44201/08/193617/10/1937
Roscommon41306/08/194423/09/1945
Kerry41310/08/197526/09/1976
Kerry40616/08/195925/09/1960
Dublin39925/06/199528/07/1996
Dublin39921/08/197724/09/1978
Total combined duration at number 1 [note 2]
TeamDuration (days)Most recent
Kerry1200231 December 2014
Dublin305031 August 2014
Galway26044 August 2002
Meath24014 June 2000
Cork221826 August 2012
Down16455 March 1995
Mayo13051 September 2013
Cavan116819 July 1953
Offaly95231 July 1983
Roscommon9179 August 1953
Tyrone7967 March 2009
Donegal64321 September 2014
Derry55318 June 2000
Louth40620 July 1958
Armagh3431 August 2004
Kildare13911 April 1999
Laois1421 August 1938
Fermanagh714 August 2004
  1. ↑ As of 31 December 2014
  2. ↑ As of 31 December 2014

Highest and lowest ranking

The following is a summary of the highest and lowest ranking achieved by each county.

Team Best Worst
Rating Most recent year Rating Most recent year
Antrim 5 1952 32 1940
Armagh 1 2004 32 1975
Carlow 2 1944 33 1982
Cavan 1 1953 28 2012
Clare 8 1997 32 2008
Cork 1 2012 22 1940
Derry 1 2000 32 1944
Donegal 1 2015 31 1972
Down 1 1995 32 1936
Dublin 1 2015 19 1973
Fermanagh 1 2004 34 1960
Galway 1 2002 21 2013
Kerry 1 2015 12 2002
Kildare 1 1999 24 2008
Laois 1 1938 28 1958
Leitrim 7 1995 33 1982
Limerick 6 2003 33 1982
London 25 2014 34 1973
Longford 2 1968 33 1981
Louth 1 1958 30 1930
Mayo 1 2013 23 1962
Meath 1 2000 26 1961
Monaghan 2 1988 33 1968
New York 21 1989 33 2015
Offaly 1 1983 31 2013
Roscommon 1 1953 31 1938
Sligo 4 1975 33 1981
Tipperary 4 1932 31 2005
Tyrone 1 2010 34 1947
Waterford 14 1963 33 2007
Westmeath 4 2004 32 1989
Wexford 3 1956 32 1973
Wicklow 8 1992 32 1945

An overview of each team's ranking distribution can also be gleaned from the following heatmap. Please note that fewer than 10 days at a particular ranking position are difficult to visualize due to low levels of shading.

Rating records

Greatest number of rating points amassed

There is a limitation to the number of rating points which a team can accumulate, as a team does not benefit from beating a team who have 15 rating points less than them. However, extended unbeaten runs, and in particular comprising victories against teams with similarly high rating points, have permitted teams to amass large totals.

Rating pointsCountyDate
112.05Kerry 19 November 1978
109.57Dublin 23 February 2014
109.57Donegal 2 February 2013
109.29Galway 9 April 1967
108.71Down 11 March 1962
107.85Meath 16 April 1950
107.54Offaly 10 December 1972
107.48Cork 30 August 2009
107.31Tyrone 15 February 2009
107.24Derry 13 March 1994
107.06Mayo 7 October 1951

Greatest shocks

The greatest shocks as ascertained by the highest number of rating points exchanged following a game were as follows:

DateCompetitionVenueTeam 1 (Rating)ScoreTeam 2 (Rating)Score Rating points exchanged
14 July 2012QualifiersLongfordLongford (84.91)1-15Limerick (72.37)1-219.00
28 May 2006Ulster SFCOmaghTyrone (102.70)0-05Derry (87.95)1-089.00
18 June 1995Ulster SFCBallybofeyDonegal (96.82)0-08Monaghan (80.47)1-149.00
12 June 1983Ulster SFCBallybofeyDonegal (75.39)1-10Armagh (97.19)0-079.00
25 June 1967Connacht SFCGalwayGalway (105.29)1-08Mayo (91.52)3-139.00
29 July 1962Ulster SFC finalCasement ParkDown (108.19)0-05Cavan (81.67)3-069.00
13 July 1952Connacht SFC finalCastlebarMayo (103.97)0-06Roscommon (83.97)3-049.00
24 June 1945Leinster SFCMullingarMeath (99.05)0-05Offaly (83.75)1-089.00

Notes and references

  1. ↑ "World rankings explanation". IRB. 2014-03-27. Retrieved 2014-03-27.
  2. ↑ "Football ranking table". www.boards.ie. 2014-03-26. Retrieved 2014-03-26.
  3. ↑ "World rankings explanation". IRB. 2014-03-27. Retrieved 2014-03-27.
  4. ↑ "GAA Statistics". www.amazon.co.uk. 2014-07-17. Retrieved 2014-07-17.
  5. ↑ "Archived results - Hoganstand.com". www.hoganstand.com. 2014-07-17. Retrieved 2014-07-17.
  6. ↑ "Main Page - Hoganstand.com". www.hoganstand.com. 2015-03-26. Retrieved 2015-03-26.

External links