Ayr (Scottish Parliament constituency)

Not to be confused with Ayr (UK Parliament constituency).
Ayr
county constituency
for the Scottish Parliament

Ayr shown within the South Scotland electoral region and the region shown within Scotland
Current constituency
Created 1999
Party Conservative
MSP John Scott
Council area South Ayrshire

Ayr is a constituency of the Scottish Parliament (Holyrood). It elects one Member of the Scottish Parliament (MSP) by the plurality (first past the post) method of election. Also, however, it is one of nine constituencies in the South Scotland electoral region, which elects seven additional members, in addition to nine constituency MSPs, to produce a form of proportional representation for the region as a whole.

Electoral region

The other eight constituencies of the South Scotland region are Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley, Clydesdale, Dumfriesshire, East Lothian, Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire, Galloway and West Dumfries, Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley and Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale.

The region covers the Dumfries and Galloway council area, part of the East Ayrshire council area, part of the East Lothian council area, part of the Midlothian council area, the Scottish Borders council area, the South Ayrshire council area and part of the South Lanarkshire council area.

Constituency boundaries and council area

The Ayr constituency was created at the same time as the Scottish Parliament, in 1999, with the name and boundaries of an existing Westminster constituency. In 2005, however, Scottish Westminster (House of Commons) constituencies were mostly replaced with new constituencies.[1]

The constituency covered the electoral wards of:

The rest of South Ayrshire is covered by the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency.

Following their First Periodic review into constituencies to the Scottish Parliament in time for the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, the Boundary Commission for Scotland recommended alterations to the existing Ayr constituency.

The Ayr constituency takes in the electoral wards of:

Constituency profile and voting patterns

Constituency profile

Ayr encompasses the coastal towns of Ayr, Prestwick and Troon. The area is a popular tourist location famed for its golf courses – particularly in Troon and Prestwick, airport, sea-side activities and Robert Burns-related activities. The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation highlights that the area contains a mixture of some of the most deprived areas in Scotland (particularly in North Ayr, south-east Prestwick, Forehill, Kincaidston, south Belmont and west Troon) and some of the most affluent areas in the country. 33.4% of the areas population live in the 20% least deprived data-zones in Scotland and 43.1% live in the 30% least deprived data-zones.[3][4][5]

Voting patterns

Historically, the area has held a high level of support for the Conservative and Unionist Party by comparison to elsewhere in Scotland and the United Kingdom as a whole. The party won the Westminister seat of Ayr from it's creation in the 1950 General Election and held it until the 1997 general election. The constituency's boundaries were altered in 1997 in a move which saw a number of suburbs being transferred to the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency: the main beneficiaries of this transfer was the Labour Party. Most of the Conservative party's support is found in Ayr's most affluent areas. In the 2003 local council elections, the party's support was concentrated in suburban areas along the boundaries of the constituency, primarily contained within Doonfoot and Seafield (where they received over 77% of the vote), Alloway, Ayr Fort, St Leonard's, North Belmont, Masonhill, Holmston, Castlehill, Barassie, Muirhead, South Troon and in north, west and central Prestwick.[6]

Area Classification mapping for the 2011 census suggests that the majority of those defined as Urban- and Suburbanites in the constituency tend to vote for the Conservatives whilst those described as "Constrained City Dwellers", "Hard-Pressed Living" and "Cosmopolitans" are more likely to vote in favour of Labour and the SNP.[7] The Ayr constituency contains a mixture of both Urban/Suburbanites and Constrained City Dwellers/Hard-pressed Living with most areas south of the river Ayr and in Prestwick and Troon being classed as Urban/Suburbanites and north of the river Ayr being overwhelmingly composed of Hard-Pressed Living and Constrained City Dwellers. Ayr East is a mix of the two, with Kincadineston, Forehill and South Belmont all being largely Hard-Pressed Living whilst St. Leonard's, much of North Belmont and Masonhill being defined as Suburban. Prestwick east and south show similar levels of deprivation, as is true for west Troon - all of these areas have demonstrated a high level of support for the Labour Party in local elections.

The Labour Party held a significant level of support in the more deprived parts of the constituency and were able to win the constituency in 1999 due to a high turnout and the constituency's boundaries, which excluded the Conservative-voting suburbs of Alloway, Doonfoot and Masonhill. Labour's decline in support in the Scottish parliament, coupled with a low-turnout enabled the Conservatives to secure the constituency comfortably in the 2000 by-election - the first by-election of the Scottish parliament making it their first constituency seat in the Scottish parliament. The constituency was won by the Conservative party in 2003 and 2007. Data from the 2007 Scottish parliamentary election and the 2012 local elections suggests that the SNP have made considerable gains in Kincaidston, Forehill and South Belmont by topping the poll in the Ayr East electoral ward. In 2011, the constituency boundaries were altered with the electoral ward of Kyle being transferred to the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency. Alloway, Doonfoot and Masonhill along with part of Forehill and Kincaidston were transferred back to the Ayr constituency resulting in a Conservative win in 2011.

Members of the Scottish Parliament

Election Member Party
1999 Ian Welsh Labour
2000 by-election John Scott Conservative
2003
2007
2011

Election results

2011 election

Scottish Parliament election, 2011: Ayr

Notes: Green background denotes the winner of the electorate vote.
Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list.
Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member.
A Green tick or Red X denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.

Party Candidate Votes % ±% Party Votes % ±%
Conservative Green tick John Scott 12,997 38.9 -1.04 8,539 25.51
SNP Chic Brodie 11,884 35.6 +9.28 14,377 42.96
Labour Gordon McKenzie 7,779 23.3 -4.01 7,513 22.45
Liberal Democrats Eileen Taylor 713 2.1 -3.58 744 2.22
Scottish Green   685 2.05
All Scotland Pensioners Party 595 1.78
UKIP   293 0.88
Scottish Christian   237 0.71
BNP   211 0.63
Socialist Labour   168 0.50
Scottish Socialist   76 0.23
Solidarity   30 0.09
Informal votes 118 67
Total Valid votes 33,373 33,468
Conservative hold Majority 1,113 3.34
Scottish Parliament election, 2007 Notional Result: Ayr
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative 13,626 39.3
Labour 9,751 28.1
SNP 9,174 26.4
Liberal Democrats 2,007 5.8
Others 135 0.4
Majority 3,875 11.2
Conservative hold Swing

2007 election result

Scottish Parliament election, 2007: Ayr[8]

Notes: Green background denotes the winner of the electorate vote.
Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list.
Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member.
A Green tick or Red X denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.

Party Candidate Votes % ±% Party Votes % ±%
Conservative Green tick John Scott 12,619 40.67 -0.05 8,983 28.90 -6.60
Labour John Duncan 8,713 28.08 -6.67 8,871 28.54 -2.29
SNP Iain White 7,952 25.63 +11.91 8,560 27.54 +13.73
Liberal Democrats Stuart Ritchie 1,741 5.61 +0.01 1,601 5.15 -0.18
Scottish Green   840 2.70 -1.92
Scottish Senior Citizens   723 2.34 -0.25(a)
Solidarity   346 1.11 +1.11
BNP   338 1.09 +1.09
Scottish Christian   253 0.81 +0.81
Socialist Labour   146 0.47 -0.29
Scottish Socialist   134 0.43 -5.29
UKIP   120 0.39 -0.14
Christian Peoples   90 0.29 +0.29
Independent - Paddy Scott Hogg 46 0.15 +0.15
Scottish Voice   27 0.09 +0.09
Informal votes 873 820
Total Valid votes 31,898 31,708
Turnout 32,681
Conservative hold Majority 3,906 12.5 +6.52

(a)-comparison with Pensioners Party (Scotland)

2003 election result

Scottish Parliament election, 2003: Ayr[9]

Notes: Green background denotes the winner of the electorate vote.
Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list.
Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member.
A Green tick or Red X denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.

Party Candidate Votes % ±% Party Votes % ±%
Conservative Green tick John Scott 12,865 40.72 +2.72 11,221 35.51 +4.58
Labour Rita Miller 10,975 34.75 -3.36 9,745 30.84 -1.31
SNP James Dornan 4,334 13.72 -5.60 4,366 13.82 -8.82
Liberal Democrats Stuart David Ritchie 1,769 5.60 +1.20 1,684 5.33 -0.84
Scottish Socialist James Scott Stewart 1,648 5.22 +5.22 1,808 5.72 +4.79
Scottish Green   1,462 4.63 +2.40
Pensioners Party 813 2.57 +2.57
Socialist Labour   240 0.76 -3.27
UKIP   166 0.53 +0.21
Scottish People's   65 0.21 +0.21
Am Partaidh Dhuthchail - The Rural Party 32 0.10 +0.10
Informal votes 145 136
Total Valid votes 31,591 31,602
Conservative hold Majority 1,890 5.98

2000 by-election result[10]

Ayr by-election, 2000

Notes: Green background denotes the winner of the by-election.
Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list prior to the by-election.
Yellow background denotes the winner of the by-election, who was a list MP prior to the by-election.
A Green tick or Red X denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.

Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative John Scott 12,580 39.44 +1.43
SNP Jim Mather 9,236 28.95 +9.48
Labour Rita Miller 7,054 22.1 -15.97
Scottish Socialist James Stewart 1,345 4.22 +4.22
Liberal Democrats Stuart Ritchie 800 2.51 -1.91
Scottish Green Gavin Nelson Corbett 460 1.44 +1.44
The Radio Vet William Clifton Botcherby 186 0.53 +0.53
UKIP Alistair David Mconnachie 113 0.35 +0.35
ProLife Alliance Robert Graham 111 0.35 +0.35
Independent Kevin James Dillion 15 0.05 +0.05
Informal votes 58
Total Valid votes 31,900
Conservative gain from Labour Majority 3,344 10.48

1999 election result

Scottish Parliament election, 1999: Ayr[11]

Notes: Green background denotes the winner of the electorate vote.
Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list.
Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member.
A Green tick or Red X denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.

Party Candidate Votes % ±% Party Votes % ±%
Labour Ian Welsh 14,263 38.08 12,039 32.14
Conservative Phil Gallie 14,238 38.01 11,582 30.92
SNP Roger Mullin 7,291 19.47 8,477 22.63
Liberal Democrats Elaine Morris 1,662 4.42 2,312 6.17
Socialist Labour   1,510 4.03
Scottish Green   832 2.22
Scottish Socialist   347 0.93
Liberal   150 0.40
UKIP   119 0.32
Natural Law   87 0.23
Informal votes 114 97
Total Valid votes 37,454 37,455
Labour win new seat Majority 25 0.07

Footnotes

  1. ↑ See The 5th Periodical Report of the Boundary Commission for Scotland
  2. ↑ See Scottish Parliament constituencies 1999 - 2011
  3. ↑ 'Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics'
  4. ↑ 'Local Authority Summary – SIMD 2012, South Ayrshire'
  5. ↑ 'Population estimates for Data and Intermediate Zones Using Administrative Data: A Feasibility Study using Scotland DataZones and Intermediate Zones'
  6. ↑ 'South Ayrshire Council - Election Results - 2003'
  7. ↑
  8. ↑
  9. ↑ - accessed 11 March 2011
  10. ↑ South Ayrshire Council - election result 2000 - accessed 11 March 2011
  11. ↑ - accessed 11 March 2011