Redskins Rule

The Redskins Rule is a bellwether involving National Football League games and United States presidential elections. Briefly stated, there is a high correlation between the outcome of the last Washington Redskins home football game prior to the U.S. Presidential Election and the outcome of the election: when the Redskins win, the incumbent party wins the electoral vote for the White House; when the Redskins lose, the non-incumbent party wins. This coincidence was noted by many sports and political commentators and held true in every election from 1940 through 2000, and with modifications in 2004 and 2008.

History

The Redskins moved to Washington in 1937. Since then, there have been 19 presidential elections. In 17 of those, the following rule applied:

"If the Redskins win their last home game before the election, the party that won the previous election wins the next election and that if the Redskins lose, the challenging party's candidate wins."

The Redskins Rule was first noticed prior to the 2000 election by Steve Hirdt, executive vice president of the Elias Sports Bureau.^[1] That year, the Redskins would begin what would become a four game losing streak with retrospect to the rule when they lost to the Tennessee Titans. George W. Bush defeated Al Gore in the Electoral College, but lost the popular vote. This would cause problems for the original version of the rule after the 2004 election.

In 2004 election, the Redskins lost their last home game before the presidential election, indicating that the incumbent should have lost. However, President George W. Bush (the incumbent) went on to defeat John Kerry. Steve Hirdt modified the rule, establishing Redskins Rule 2.0:^[2]

When the popular vote winner does not win the election, the impact of the Redskins game on the subsequent presidential election gets flipped.

In the election in 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote while Bush won the electoral vote, and thereby the revised Redskins Rule was upheld for the 2004 election.

In the 2008 election, the Redskins lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, predicting a win for Illinois Senator Barack Obama over Arizona Senator John McCain because George W. Bush won the popular vote in the previous election.^[3]

Prior to the 2012 election, the Redskins lost against the Carolina Panthers on November 4. The Redskins Rule predicted an outright loss for incumbent Barack Obama against challenger Mitt Romney, or that Obama would lose the popular vote and still win the Electoral College.^[4] However, incumbent Barack Obama won the election with 332 electoral votes to Romney's 206,^[5] held the advantage in the popular vote by more than 4.7 million votes, and the Redskins Rule did not hold in 2012.

The rule typically does not count the team's time playing in Boston (1932-1936). The team competed as the Boston Braves in 1932 when they won 19-6 over the Staten Island Stapletons. This game does not conform to the rule as Franklin D. Roosevelt defeated Herbert Hoover in that election. However, in 1936, the first election year the team competed under its current nickname, they defeated the Chicago Cardinals and the incumbent Democrat, Roosevelt, went on to win reelection.

Results

* Upheld under revised rule
** Competed as the Boston Redskins
*** Competed as the Boston Braves

See also

• Mierscheid law

References