Peak copper

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World copper production, 1900-2012

Peak copper is a hypothetical point in time at which the maximum global copper production rate is reached. Since copper is a finite resource, at some point in the future new production from within the earth will diminish, and at some earlier time production will reach a maximum. When this will occur is a matter of dispute. Unlike fossil fuels, however, copper is scrapped and reused and it has been estimated that at least 80% of all copper ever mined is still available (having been repeatedly recycled).[1] Copper is among the most important industrial metals, valued for its conductivity and malleability. Copper is used in electrical power cables, data cables, electrical equipment, automobile radiators, cooling and refrigeration tubing, heat exchangers, artillery shell casings, small arms ammunition, water pipes, and jewellery. Copper has been in use at least 10,000 years, but more than 95% of all copper ever mined and smelted has been extracted since 1900. As India and China race to catch up with the West, the copper supply chain is becoming more strained,[2] leading to increased prices and an increase in copper theft.

History

Concern about the copper supply is not new. In 1924, noted geologist and copper-mining expert Ira Joralemon warned:

"... the age of electricity and of copper will be short. At the intense rate of production that must come, the copper supply of the world will last hardly a score of years. ... Our civilization based on electrical power will dwindle and die."[3]

Copper demand

Total world production is about 17 million tonnes per year.[4] Copper demand is increasing by more than 575,000 tons annually and accelerating.[2] Based on 2006 figures for per capita consumption, Tom Graedel and colleagues at Yale University calculate that by 2100 global demand for copper will outstrip the amount extractable from the ground.[5] China accounts for more than 22% of world copper demand.[6]

For some purposes, other metals can substitute. During a copper shortage in the 1970s, aluminium wire was substituted in many applications, but improper design caused a fire danger.[citation needed] The safety issues have since been solved by use of larger sizes of aluminium wire (#8AWG and up), and properly designed aluminium wiring is still being installed in place of copper.

Copper supply

Globally, economic copper resources are being depleted with the equivalent production of three world-class copper mines being consumed annually.[2] Environmental analyst Lester Brown has suggested copper might run out within 25 years based on what he considered a reasonable extrapolation of 2% growth per year.[7]

New copper discoveries

56 new copper discoveries have been made during the three decades 1975-2005.[2] World discoveries of copper peaked in 1996.[8]

Production

See also: List of countries by copper production
Production trends in the top five copper-producing nations

The chief producers of copper are Chile, United States, and Peru.[9] 21 of the 28 largest copper mines in the world are not amenable to expansion.[2] Many large copper mines will be exhausted between 2010 and 2015.[2]

 Copper production (thousands tonnes)[10][11][12][13][14]
Country 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
 Chile 4,580 4,860 5,410 5,320 5,560 5,700 5,330 5,320 5,420 5,420
 Peru 843 850 1,040 1,090 1,049 1,200 1,270 1,260 1,250 1,220
 United States 1,140 1,120 1,160 1,150 1,200 1,190 1,310 1,190 1,110 1,120
 China 585 565 620 640 890 920 950 960 1,190 1,190
 Australia 873 870 854 930 859 860 886 900 870 940
 Indonesia 1,160 1,170 840 1,050 816 780 651 950 872 625
 Russia 695 700 675 675 725 730 750 750 703 710
 Canada 600 580 546 580 607 585 607 520 525 550
 Zambia 330 330 427 450 476 530 546 655 690 715
 Poland 503 500 531 530 512 470 430 440 425 425
 Kazakhstan 490 480 461 400 457 460 420 410 380 360
 Mexico 330 330 406 420 338 400 247 250 260 365
Other countries 1,500 1,500 1,610 1,750 1,835 1,800 2,030 2,180 1,900 2,000
 World 13,600 13,900 14,600 14,900 15,100 15,600 15,400 15,800 15,900 16,100

Reserves

Copper is a fairly common element, with an estimated concentration of 50-70 ppm (0.005-0.007%) in Earth's crust (1 kg of copper per 15-20 tons of crustal rock).[15] If all this copper were extractable, that would provide humans with a nearly inexhaustible supply of the element (millions of years worth), from that concentration adding up to around 2 quadrillion tons over the mass of the crust.[16] However, most of it can not be extracted profitably at the current level of technology and the current market value. At the present time, copper deposits are considered potentially profitable if they are located sufficiently close to the surface and they contain at least 0.3-0.5% of copper.[citation needed]

The U.S. Geological Survey reported a current total reserve base of copper in potentially recoverable ores of 1.6 billion tonnes as of 2005, of which 950 million tonnes was considered economically recoverable.[17]

 Copper reserves (thousands of tonnes)[12]
Country Reserves Percent Reserve base Percent
 Chile 150,000 30.61% 360,000 38.30%
 United States 35,000 7.14% 70,000 7.45%
 China 26,000 5.31% 63,000 6.70%
 Peru 30,000 6.12% 60,000 6.38%
 Poland 30,000 6.12% 48,000 5.11%
 Australia 24,000 4.90% 43,000 4.57%
 Mexico 30,000 6.12% 40,000 4.26%
 Indonesia 35,000 7.14% 38,000 4.04%
 Zambia 19,000 3.88% 35,000 3.72%
 Russia 20,000 4.08% 30,000 3.19%
 Kazakhstan 14,000 2.86% 20,000 2.13%
 Canada 9,000 1.84% 20,000 2.13%
Other countries 35,000 7.14% 110,000 11.70%
 World 490,000 100% 940,000 100%

Known conventional resources

Recycling

Each year in the USA, more copper is recovered and put back into service from recycled material than is derived from newly mined ore. Copper’s recycle value is so great that premium-grade scrap normally has at least 95% of the value of primary metal from newly mined ore.[18]

Undiscovered conventional resources

Based on current discovery rates and existing geologic surveys, researchers have estimated that 1.6 billion metric tons of copper exist that could potentially be brought into use. This figure relies on the broadest possible definition of available copper as well as a lack of energy constraints and environmental concerns.[17]

Unconventional resources

Deep-sea nodules are estimated to contain 700 million tonnes of copper.[12]

Polities

Chile

Chile is the world's largest copper producer, and in 2007 accounted for 37% of the world's primary copper production (see table above). One researcher has stated that Chile copper production may begin to decline irreversibly in 2008.[2] However, this is contradicted by the Chilean Copper Commission, which has projected that, based on planned expansion projects, Chilean copper production will continue to increase through at least 2012.[19]

Zaire

In Zaire, copper production fell by 90% from 1976 (502,000 tons) to wartime 1993 (50,000 tons). Resumption depends on political factors.[20]

Copper prices

Copper tonne prices 1986 – early 2011 in USD, showing 2008's price collapse

The price of copper struck a first peak level on March 6, 2008, on the London Metal Exchange (LME), surging 5.8 percent over the previous trading day to US$4.02 per pound. The previous record was set on May 12, 2006, at $3.98/lb. The international copper price increased rapidly in early 2008, rising 23 percent in February 2008,[21] then declined 40% before December 2008,[22] and reached $1.30 by year's end.[23] In February 2011 the price peaked at over US$10,100/tonne[24] ($4.58/lb) but soon fell to below $8,000, around where it was fairly stable during 2012, with a decline to around $7000 ($3.18/lb) during 2013.


Criticism

Julian Simon was a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a professor of business and economics. In his book The Ultimate Resource 2 (first printed in 1981 and reprinted in 1998), he extensively criticizes the notion of "peak resources", and uses copper as one example. He argues that, even though "peak copper" has been a persistent scare since the early 20th century, "known reserves" grew at a rate that outpaced demand, and the price of copper was not rising but falling in the long run. For example, even though world production of copper in 1950 was only 1/8 of what it was today, known reserves were also much lower at the time – around 100 million metric tons – making it appear that the world would run out of copper in 40 to 50 years at most.

Simon's own explanation for this development is that the very notion of known reserves is deeply flawed,[25] as it does not take into account changes in mining profitability. As richer mines are exhausted, developers turn their attention to poorer sources of the element and eventually develop cheap methods of extracting it, raising "known reserves". Thus, for example, copper was so abundant 5000 years ago, occurring in pure form as well as in highly concentrated copper ores, that prehistoric peoples were able to collect and process it with very basic technology. As of the early 21st century, copper is commonly mined from ores that contain 0.3% to 0.6% of copper by weight. Yet, despite the material being far less "widespread", the cost of, for example, a copper pot is vastly lower today in real terms than it was 5000 years ago.[26]

Simon essentially states that not all viable copper has been discovered and that not all technological advancements in mining and refining have occurred, so statements that the point of peak copper has been or will be reached must be false. Simon supports his argument by showing that copper supplies have increased and prices have fallen. Simon's thesis of peak resources is not based on current scientific analysis or geological measurements, but the analysis of historical trends and the assumption that they can and will continue.

See also

References

  1. ↑ http://www.copperinfo.com/environment/recycling.html
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 Andrew Leonard (2006-03-02). "Peak copper?". Salon - How the World Works. Retrieved 2008-03-23. 
  3. ↑ "Copper and electricity to vanish in twenty years?" Engineering and Mining Journal-Press 26 July 1924, v.118 n.4 p.122.
  4. ↑ Copper Statistics and Information, Mineral Commodity Summaries, 2013, http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/copper/
  5. ↑ David Cohen (2007-05-23). "Earth's natural wealth: an audit". New Scientist (2605): 34–41. Retrieved 2008-04-09. 
  6. ↑ Dan Glaister, Tania Branigan and Owen Bowcott (2008-03-20). "Deaths and disruption as price rise sees copper thefts soar". The Guardian. Retrieved 2008-04-09. 
  7. ↑ Brown, Lester (2006). Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble. New York: W.W. Norton. p. 109. ISBN 0-393-32831-7. 
  8. ↑ "Peak Copper Means Peak Silver". Charleston Voice. 2005-12-29. Retrieved 2008-04-09. 
  9. ↑ Samuel K. Moore (March 2008). "Supply Risk, Scarcity, and Cellphones". IEEE Spectrum. IEEE. Retrieved 2008-03-23. 
  10. ↑ "pg. 54 - Copper" (PDF). USGS. 2004. Retrieved 2008-04-09. 
  11. ↑ "pg. 56 - Copper" (PDF). USGS. 2006. Retrieved 2008-04-09. 
  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 12.2 "pg. 54 - Copper" (PDF). USGS. 2008. Retrieved 2008-04-09. 
  13. ↑ "pg. 49 - Copper" (PDF). USGS. 2010. Retrieved 2012-07-15. 
  14. ↑ "pg. 49 - Copper" (PDF). USGS. 2012. Retrieved 2012-07-15. 
  15. ↑ Emsley, John (11 August 2003). Nature's building blocks: an A-Z guide to the elements. Oxford University Press. pp. 121–125. ISBN 978-0-19-850340-8. Retrieved 2 May 2011. 
  16. ↑ American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2007, abstract #V33A-1161. Mass and Composition of the Continental Crust
  17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 David Biello (2006-01-17). "Measure of Metal Supply Finds Future Shortage". Scientific American. Retrieved 2008-03-23. 
  18. ↑ "Copper in the USA: Bright Future – Glorious Past". Copper Development Association. Retrieved 2008-04-09. 
  19. ↑ Chilean Copper Commission (Sept. 2006): Current and future situation of the copper industry in Chile (Adobe *.PDF file)
  20. ↑ "Zaire: IRIN Briefing Part II". University Of Pennsylvania. 1997-02-27. Retrieved 2008-04-09. 
  21. ↑ "International copper price hits record high". China view. 2008-03-08. Retrieved 2008-04-09. 
  22. ↑ Base Metals decline Times of India
  23. ↑ $1.30 price
  24. ↑ http://www.lme.com/copper.asp
  25. ↑ Chapt 12, The Ultimate Resource II, by Julian Simon
  26. ↑ The Ultimate Resource 2, by Julian Simon

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