3G (countries)

3G countries or Global Growth Generators countries are 11 countries economies which have been identified as sources of growth potential and of profitable investment opportunities.

Background

Prepared in February 2011, a Citigroup report prepared by analysts Willem Buiter (Chief Economist) and Ebrahim Rahbari noted that BRICS (BRIC plus South Africa) countries have "outlived their usefulness". "We hold the view that categories emerging markets, advanced economies, developing countries, BRICS, Next Eleven or the Growth Markets are all labels belonging to classification schemes that either have outlived their usefulness or are unlikely to ever have any," the two analysts said. So, long run continues growths are important, although some of the eleven countries identified are poor today and have decades of catch-up growth to look forward to.^[1]

The grouping based on a weighted average of 6 growth drivers:

• Domestic saving/investment
• Demographic prospects
• Health
• Education
• Quality of institutions and policies
• Trade openness

3G Index Score

Global Growth Generators (3G) countries 2010-2050

Country	2010 GDP/Capita[2]	% of US GDP/Capita[3]	% Av. Growth	3G Index
Bangladesh	$1,735	4	6.3	0.39
China	$7,430	16	5.0	0.81
Egypt	$5,878	13	5.0	0.37
India	$3,298	7	6.4	0.71
Indonesia	$4,363	10	5.6	0.70
Iraq	$3,538	8	6.1	0.58
Mongolia	$3,764	8	6.3	0.63
Nigeria	$2,335	5	6.9	0.25
Philippines	$3,684	8	5.5	0.60
Sri Lanka	$4,988	11	5.9	0.33
Vietnam	$3,108	7	6.4	0.86

Note: China and India highligted in Gold with Bold text as also BRIC countries. Bigger index means better conditions. GDP per capita measured at 2010 PPP USD. Average growth is average growth in forecast of real GDP per capita measured at 2010 PPP USD.

3G countries

The most promising growth prospects countries are: Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Mongolia, Nigeria, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. China and India as BRIC countries are 3G countries, but not for Brazil, and Russia. Developing Asia and Africa will be fastest growing regions until 2050, driven by population and income growth, so all of 3G countries came from the both continents (Asia by 9 countries and Africa by 2 countries) and no one from the other continents.^[4] Vietnam has the highest Global Growth Generators Index among the 11 major economies, China is second with 0.81, followed by India's 0.71. This holds Vietnam as world's highest potential source of high growth and profitable investment opportunities.^[5]

October 2011: Based on a report from the HSBC Trade Confidence Index (TCI) and HSBC Trade Forecast there are 4 countries with significant trade volume growth, i.e. Egypt, India, Vietnam and Indonesia with growth expected at least 7.3 percent per year until 2025.^[6]

Others countries

Iran and North Korea could catch the 3G countries if they achieve political transitions and open their economies. Some might add Argentina, Myanmar, and Venezuela. Whether Mexico, Brazil, Turkey and Thailand will catch 3G countries depends on increasing their domestic saving/investment rates substantially. Some developed countries, such as Ireland, Canada, Australia and the USA could also become 3G countries, as stated in the report.

The Top 10 Largest Economies in the World

List of the top 10 largest economies by nominal GDP from 2010 to 2050 (in current USD)^[7]

2010 Rank	Country	GDP	2030 Rank	Country	GDP	2050 Rank	Country	GDP
1	United States	14,612	1	China	57,138	1	China	205,321
2	China	5,860	2	United States	35,739	2	India	180,490
3	Japan	5,465	3	India	24,824	3	United States	83,805
4	Germany	3,292	4	Japan	9,213	4	Indonesia	45,901
5	France	2,602	5	Brazil	8,780	5	Nigeria	42,437
6	United Kingdom	2,259	6	Russia	7,380	6	Brazil	33,199
7	Italy	2,044	7	Indonesia	7,299	7	Russia	19,697
8	Brazil	1,989	8	Germany	6,466	8	Japan	16,394
9	India	1,596	9	United Kingdom	5,819	9	Philippines	14,738
10	Canada	1,572	10	France	5,236	10	United Kingdom	13,846

Note: 3G countries are highlighted in green colour and bold text.

List of the top 10 richest countries by GDP per capita in 2010 and 2050 (in current USD)^[8]

2010 Rank	Country	GDP per capita	2050 Rank	Country	GDP per capita
1	Singapore	56,532	1	Singapore	137,710
2	Norway	51,226	2	Hong Kong	116,639
3	United States	45,511	3	Taiwan	114,093
4	Hong Kong	45,301	4	Republic of Korea	107,752
5	Switzerland	42,470	5	United States	100,802
6	Netherlands	40,736	6	Saudi Arabia	98,311
7	Australia	40,525	7	Canada	96,375
8	Austria	39,073	8	United Kingdom	91,130
9	Canada	38,640	9	Switzerland	90,956
10	Sweden	36,438	10	Austria	90,158

Note: There are no 3G countries on the list above, because most of 3G countries have big population.

References

External links