United States presidential election in Arkansas, 2008

The 2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on November 4, 2008 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 6 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Arkansas was won by Republican John McCain by a 19.9% margin of victory, an even greater margin than George W. Bush did in 2004, despite the national Democratic trend. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. The state trended dramatically Republican in 2008, as McCain performed over 4% better than Bush did in 2004, more than any other state. Only five counties swung more Democratic that year, and the vast majority of counties swung heavily Republican (some by as much as a 30% swing toward the Republicans).^[1]

Primaries

Arkansas swung and trended more Republican than any other state in the nation during the election due in large part to disappointment and remorse over the 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary in which former First Lady of Arkansas Hillary Rodham Clinton was narrowly defeated by Barack Obama.

• Arkansas Democratic primary, 2008
• Arkansas Republican primary, 2008

Campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are there last predictions before election day:

1. D.C. Political Report: Republican^[2]
2. Cook Political Report: Solid Republican^[3]
3. Takeaway: Leaning McCain^[4]
4. Election Projection: Leaning McCain^[5]
5. Electoral-vote.com: Leaning Republican^[6]
6. Washington Post: Leaning McCain^[7]
7. Politico: Solid McCain^[8]
8. Real Clear Politics: Leaning McCain^[9]
9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid McCain^[7]
10. CQ Politics: Safe Republican^[10]
11. New York Times: Solid Republican^[11]
12. CNN: Leaning Republican^[12]
13. NPR: Solid McCain^[7]
14. MSNBC: Solid McCain^[7]
15. Fox News: Republican^[13]
16. Associated Press: Republican^[14]
17. Rasmussen Reports: Safe Republican^[15]

Polling

John McCain won every single opinion poll taken in Arkansas prior to the election. Although, McCain polled just in the low 50% range.^[16] RealClearPolitics gave the state an average of 52.3% for McCain, compared to 38.8% for Obama. The margin of victory on election day was more than double of the RCP average.^[17] The state was not seriously contested by either campaign.

Fundraising

Obama raised $1,004,783. McCain raised $934,884. Both candidates raised the most in Pulaski County.^[18][19]

Advertising and visits

Obama spent over $110,350. McCain spent only $459.^[20] Neither candidate visited the state.^[21]

Analysis

Although former President Bill Clinton, a Democrat, easily carried his home state of Arkansas in 1992 and again in 1996, the state was largely considered a safe state for John McCain. Early polls gave McCain a double-digit lead among possible voters on Election Day.^[22] Although the state remains strongly Democratic at the state and local levels, on Election Day, Arkansas showcased its reliability as a Republican stronghold in presidential elections by voting for McCain by a margin of approximately 20%. A possible factor for such the large swing away from the Democrats could have been the fact that Hillary Rodham Clinton, who once served as First Lady of Arkansas while her husband was Governor, did not receive the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008. The polls showed Hillary Clinton defeating McCain in Arkansas. Obama became the first Democrat in history to win the White House without carrying Arkansas.

During the same election, however, freshman Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Pryor faced no Republican opposition, and was reelected in a landslide victory over Rebekah Kennedy of the Green Party. The four members of the state's delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives (three Democrats and one Republican) were also reelected with no major-party opposition. Republicans, however, picked up three seats in the Arkansas House of Representatives and one Democratic state representative became a Green (he later returned to the Democratic Party in 2009).

Results

Results breakdown

By county

By congressional district

McCain swept every congressional district in Arkansas, three of which are held by Democrats.

Electors

Technically the voters of Arkansas cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arkansas is allocated 6 electors because it has 4 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 6 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 6 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.^[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 6 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:^[25]

1. Jim Burnett
2. Reta Hamilton
3. Rose Bryant Jones
4. Phyllis Kincannon
5. Steve Lux
6. Kermit Parks

References

See also