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Legislative elections for the Cortes Generales in Spain are scheluded to take place on November 2015 at the latest, as the Cortes' approximate duration between disolutions (a legislature) must not exceed 4 years.
The elections will be for 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies, and the 208 directly elected seats in the upper house, the Senate, determining the Prime Minister of Spain. The governing People's Party, led by current Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will battle against the main opposition party, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, whose next leader and (arguably) Prime Ministerial candidate is yet to be determined. After former PM José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero announcing he would not seek a third term and his intention to withdraw from politics after the 2011 elections, the PSOE will hold its 38th Congress in February that is expected to elect the next Secretary-General.
Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, PSOE candidate for the 2011 elections and current acting head of the Socialist Group in the Congress, and Carme Chacón, former Minister of Defence in the 9th Legislature, are the main favourites to succeed Zapatero.[1]
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The Congress of Deputies is composed of 350 members of Congress, which are elected in 50 multi-member circumscriptions using the D'Hondt voting distribution system with the 2 autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla electing one member each using plurality voting.
176 seats will give an absolute majority in the Congress, and thus in the government, for any party, though it is not required to win an election. Traditionally, should an election results in a hung parliament, the largest party will form a minority government rather than seek a coalition with other parties, instead relying on punctual pacts and alliances in order to pass legislation into the Congress of Deputies.
By tradition, the first candidate on each Madrid party list for the Congress of Deputies is the Prime Ministerial candidate for that party. Nationalist parties who do not expect to win enough seats to be contenders for the office of Prime Minister typically designate one of their list leaders as their main candidate. Those candidates are generally featured more prominently in the Spanish national media than other list leaders or candidates. Regional, provincial and local media nearly always cover the activities of the Prime Ministerial candidates, together with the leading candidates in their area.
Opinion polling for major parties is as such (included only significant parties at the national level. CiU also included due to their comparatively large parliamentary representation):
Date(s) Conducted | Polling institute | PP | PSOE | IU | UPyD | CiU | Others / undecided | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
17 December | Metroscopia [3] | 44.9% | 28.4% | — | — | — | — | 16.5% |
20 November 2011 | Election Results | 44.6% 186 seats |
28.8% 110 seats |
6.9% 11 seats |
4.7% 5 seats |
4.2% 16 seats |
10.8% 22 seats |
15.8% |
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