In demography, replacement migration is the migration needed for a region to achieve a particular objective (demographic, economic or social).[1] Generally, studies using this concept have as an objective to avoid the decline of total population and the decline of the working-age population. Projections calculating migration replacement are primarily demographics and theoretical exercises and not forecasts or recommendations.
The concept of replacement migration may vary according to the study and depending on the context in which it applies. It may be a number of annual immigrants,[2] a net migration,[3] an additional number of immigrants compared to a reference scenario,[4] etc.
Contents |
Replacement migration may take several forms because several scenarios of projections population can achieve the same aim. However, two forms predominate: minimal replacement migration and constant replacement migration.
Replacement migration is a minimum migration without surplus to achieve a chosen objective. This form of replacement migration may results in large fluctuations between periods. Its calculation will obviously depend on the chosen objective. For example, Marois (2008) calculates the gross number of immigrants needed to prevent total population decline in Quebec. The formula is then the following:
The constant replacement migration does not fluctuate and remains the same throughout the projection. For example, it will be calculated with a projection providing a migration of X throughout the temporal horizon.
The raw results of replacement migration are not necessarily comparable depending on the type of replacement migration used by the author. Nevertheless, major demographics conclusions are recurrent:
Replacement migration to prevent the total population decline (annual average):
Replacement migration to prevent the decline of population of working age (annual average)
Bijak, Jakub et al. 2005. « Replacement Migration Revisited: Migratory Flows, Population and Labour Force in Europe, 2002–2052 » In UN ECE Work Session on Demographic Projections, Vienne, 21-23 septembre 2005, 37 p. http://circa.europa.eu/irc/dsis/jointestatunece/info/data/paper_Bijak.pdf
Marois, Guillaume. 2007. « Démystification de l’impact de l’immigration sur la démographie québécoise : des résultats surprenants », Mémoire déposé lors de la Consultation publique en vue de la planification triennale des niveaux d’immigration pour la période 2008-2010, Commission de la culture, Gouvernement du Québec, 15 p. http://www.bibliotheque.assnat.qc.ca/01/mono/2007/10/949645.pdf
Marois, Guillaume. 2008. « La « migration de remplacement » : un exercice méthodologique en rapport aux enjeux démographiques du Québec », Cahier québécois de démographie, vol. 37, n° 2, 2008, p. 237-261 http://www.erudit.org/revue/cqd/2008/v37/n2/038132ar.pdf
Statistique Canada. 2002. « La fécondité des immigrantes et de leurs filles au Canada », Rapport sur l’état de la population du Canada, rédigé par Alain Bélanger et Stéphane Gilbert. Ottawa (Ont.) : Statistique Canada, pp. 135–161 http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/app/DocRepository/1/fra/bac/pdf/2006_09_22_belanger_f.pdf
United Nations. 2000. Replacement Migration, UN Population Division, New York (É-U), 143 p. http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/migration/execsumFrench.pdf