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The next Australian federal election will elect members of the 44th Parliament of Australia. The election must be held by 30 November 2013 and will be called following the dissolution or expiry of the current Parliament as elected at the 2010 federal election.
Australia has compulsory voting (since 1925) and uses preferential ballot (since 1919) in single-member seats for the House of Representatives and single transferable vote (since 1949) with optional group voting tickets (since 1984) in the proportionally represented Senate. The election will be conducted by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC).
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At the 2010 federal election, Labor and the Liberal/National Coalition each won 72 seats in the 150–seat House of Representatives, four short of the requirement for majority government, resulting in the first hung parliament since the 1940 federal election. On the crossbench, one member of the Australian Greens, one member of the National Party of Western Australia, and four independent members held the balance of power. After gaining the support of the Greens and three independents on confidence and supply votes, Labor was able to form a minority government with a 76–74 margin.[1]
On 24 November 2011, Harry Jenkins resigned as Speaker of the House of Representatives and returned to the Labor backbench. Later that day, Deputy Speaker Peter Slipper was elevated to Speaker and quit the Liberal National Party to become an independent. This changed confidence and supply numbers on the floor of the house from 75–74 to 76–73.[2][3]
Previous precedents for independent speakers are Frederick Holder, elected initially for the Free Trade Party at the inaugural 1901 election, and in the Senate, Labor's Mal Colston became an independent and Deputy President of the Senate following the 1996 election. In the previous hung parliament elected at the 1940 election, the United Australia Party's Walter Nairn was speaker during the Curtin Labor government that was formed in 1941. Opposition MP Carty Salmon initially served as speaker for the first federal Australian majority government, the Andrew Fisher Labor government, resulting from the 1910 election. At the 1913 election, Labor's Charles McDonald was offered retention of the speakership by the incoming one-seat-majority Commonwealth Liberal Party, but declined – later however, after Labor's return to government at the 1914 election, McDonald regained the speakership until the subsequent election despite the mid-term change to a Nationalist Party government.[4][5]
Currently, the 76-seat Senate is made up of senators from the Coalition (34), Australian Labor Party (31), Australian Greens (9), Democratic Labor Party (1), and one independent senator, Nick Xenophon. Labor requires an additional eight non-Labor Senators to form a majority, this means the Greens hold the sole balance of power. Previously the Greens held a shared balance of power with the Family First Party and Xenophon.
The previous federal election was held on 21 August 2010. The last date on which the next election can be held is calculated in the following way:[6]
The first meeting of the House of Representatives and the 43rd Parliament occurred on 28 September 2010.[11] It will expire on 27 September 2013, unless dissolved sooner. (Note: Of Australia's 42 completed parliaments, only one, the 3rd Parliament 1907-1910, continued for the full three years, all the others having been dissolved earlier.) The writs must be issued by 7 October 2013 (ten days after the expiry or dissolution). The last date on which nominations can close is 3 November 2013 (27 days after the issue of the writs). The last day that is a Saturday and no more than 31 days following the close of nominations is 30 November 2013. This is therefore the last possible date of the next election.
Barring a double dissolution, an election for half the membership of the Senate must be held between 1 July 2013 and 30 June 2014. Should the current parliament run to or near its full term, the Senate election would be held in conjunction with the House of Representatives election; the first possible date for a house and half-senate election is 3 August 2013.[12] An early election, however, would not include a Senate election.[13]
The current parliament is a hung parliament. It is therefore possible that the government may change without an election if the cross-bench members decide to change their support to the opposition. This last happened following the 1940 federal election when crossbenchers changed their support from Liberal Robert Menzies to Labor's John Curtin.[14] It is also possible that the government might fall with no one party or group being able to command the confidence of the House of Representatives, which would trigger an election. The Government could lose its majority because a member of one of the government parties died, resigned, or otherwise lost office, triggering a by-election. To avoid triggering a general election in these circumstances, the Prime Minister could advise the Governor-General to suspend ("prorogue") parliament until the outcome of the by-election was known. Alternatively, the Opposition could agree to voluntarily suspend one of its number voting so that the government retains an effective majority. This is a practice known as "pairing".[13]
Federal elections usually consist of a full election for the lower house, and an election for half of the Senate.[15] However, it is possible for the elections for the houses to become unsynchronised due to early elections. An election called before 3 August 2013 would only include the lower house and the four territory Senators.
A double dissolution would need to occur before 27 March 2013, with an election between 4 May and 1 June 2013. ABC election analyst Antony Green has opined that it is highly unlikely that such a double dissolution would occur, as the constitutional 'trigger' for such an election (a bill failing to pass through the Senate, or being unacceptably amended by the Senate on two separate occasions three months apart) is unlikely to be met. Moreover, even if such a 'trigger' were achieved, Green believes that Labor is unlikely to seek a double dissolution election. If the Coalition formed government without an election, it could call a double dissolution election if the necessary trigger conditions were met prior to 27 March 2013.[16]
Where a Member of the House of Representatives does not renominate to contest the election, their term will end at the dissolution of the parliament. Members who have indicated their intention to retire are:
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is performed via random telephone number selection in city and country areas, usually each fortnight from Friday to Sunday. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1000 electors, with the declared margin of error at ±3 percent.
| Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lab | Coa | Gre | Oth | Lab | Coa | |
| 2–4 Dec 2011 | 31% | 44% | 13% | 12% | 46% | 54% |
| 18–20 Nov 2011 | 30% | 48% | 10% | 12% | 43% | 57% |
| 4–6 Nov 2011 | 32% | 44% | 12% | 12% | 47% | 53% |
| 21–23 Oct 2011 | 29% | 45% | 15% | 11% | 46% | 54% |
| 7–9 Oct 2011 | 29% | 49% | 12% | 10% | 43% | 57% |
| 16–18 Sep 2011 | 26% | 48% | 13% | 13% | 42% | 58% |
| 2–4 Sep 2011 | 27% | 50% | 12% | 11% | 41% | 59% |
| 19–21 Aug 2011 | 27% | 47% | 14% | 12% | 43% | 57% |
| 5–7 Aug 2011 | 29% | 47% | 12% | 12% | 44% | 56% |
| 22–24 Jul 2011 | 29% | 47% | 13% | 11% | 44% | 56% |
| 8–10 Jul 2011 | 27% | 49% | 12% | 12% | 42% | 58% |
| 24–26 Jun 2011 | 30% | 46% | 11% | 13% | 45% | 55% |
| 10–12 Jun 2011 | 31% | 46% | 11% | 12% | 45% | 55% |
| 27–29 May 2011 | 34% | 44% | 14% | 8% | 48% | 52% |
| 13–15 May 2011 | 33% | 46% | 10% | 11% | 46% | 54% |
| 29 Apr–1 May 2011 | 33% | 44% | 12% | 11% | 47% | 53% |
| 1–3 Apr 2011 | 32% | 45% | 12% | 12% | 45% | 55% |
| 18–20 Mar 2011 | 36% | 40% | 12% | 12% | 51% | 49% |
| 4–6 Mar 2011 | 30% | 45% | 15% | 10% | 46% | 54% |
| 18–20 Feb 2011 | 36% | 41% | 13% | 10% | 50% | 50% |
| 4–6 Feb 2011 | 32% | 44% | 14% | 10% | 48% | 52% |
| 3–5 Dec 2010 | 34% | 41% | 14% | 11% | 50% | 50% |
| 19–21 Nov 2010 | 36% | 39% | 14% | 11% | 52% | 48% |
| 5–7 Nov 2010 | 34% | 43% | 13% | 10% | 48% | 52% |
| 22–24 Oct 2010 | 33% | 43% | 14% | 10% | 48% | 52% |
| 8–10 Oct 2010 | 35% | 42% | 14% | 9% | 50% | 50% |
| 10–12 Sep 2010 | 34% | 41% | 14% | 11% | 50% | 50% |
| 2010 election result | 38.0% | 43.3% | 11.8% | 7.0% | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| 17–19 Aug 2010 | 36.2% | 43.4% | 13.9% | 6.5% | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. | ||||||
| Preferred PM | Gillard | Abbott | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillard | Abbott | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | |||||
| 2–4 Dec 2011 | 43% | 36% | 36% | 56% | 33% | 57% | ||||
| 18–20 Nov 2011 | 40% | 35% | 34% | 55% | 34% | 55% | ||||
| 4–6 Nov 2011 | 39% | 40% | 30% | 60% | 34% | 57% | ||||
| 21–23 Oct 2011 | 36% | 39% | 31% | 61% | 34% | 55% | ||||
| 7–9 Oct 2011 | 35% | 40% | 28% | 60% | 36% | 53% | ||||
| 16–18 Sep 2011 | 35% | 40% | 27% | 61% | 34% | 54% | ||||
| 2–4 Sep 2011 | 34% | 43% | 23% | 68% | 39% | 52% | ||||
| 19–21 Aug 2011 | 38% | 39% | 29% | 61% | 36% | 55% | ||||
| 5–7 Aug 2011 | 39% | 40% | 33% | 58% | 39% | 52% | ||||
| 22–24 Jul 2011 | 40% | 41% | 32% | 59% | 39% | 52% | ||||
| 8–10 Jul 2011 | 38% | 43% | 30% | 59% | 42% | 49% | ||||
| 24–26 Jun 2011 | 39% | 40% | 28% | 62% | 39% | 52% | ||||
| 10–12 Jun 2011 | 41% | 38% | 30% | 55% | 35% | 52% | ||||
| 27–29 May 2011 | 44% | 37% | 35% | 54% | 37% | 53% | ||||
| 13–15 May 2011 | 42% | 38% | 34% | 55% | 38% | 51% | ||||
| 29 Apr–1 May 2011 | 45% | 36% | 38% | 49% | 42% | 48% | ||||
| 1–3 Apr 2011 | 46% | 37% | 39% | 49% | 36% | 53% | ||||
| 18–20 Mar 2011 | 50% | 31% | 40% | 47% | 33% | 54% | ||||
| 4–6 Mar 2011 | 45% | 36% | 39% | 51% | 39% | 51% | ||||
| 18–20 Feb 2011 | 53% | 31% | 50% | 39% | 38% | 49% | ||||
| 4–6 Feb 2011 | 48% | 35% | 45% | 42% | 42% | 44% | ||||
| 3–5 Dec 2010 | 52% | 32% | 45% | 38% | 42% | 43% | ||||
| 19–21 Nov 2010 | 54% | 31% | 46% | 37% | 42% | 45% | ||||
| 5–7 Nov 2010 | 49% | 34% | 41% | 41% | 44% | 42% | ||||
| 22–24 Oct 2010 | 53% | 32% | 44% | 37% | 41% | 46% | ||||
| 8–10 Oct 2010 | 52% | 31% | 48% | 33% | 39% | 47% | ||||
| 10–12 Sep 2010 | 50% | 34% | 44% | 36% | 48% | 38% | ||||
| 2010 election | – | – | – | – | – | – | ||||
| 17–19 Aug 2010 | 50% | 37% | 44% | 43% | 42% | 50% | ||||
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. Remainder were "uncommitted". | ||||||||||
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