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The 36th New Brunswick general election was held on September 18, 2006, to elect 55 members to the 56th New Brunswick Legislative Assembly, the governing house of the province of New Brunswick, Canada.
The campaign came earlier than expected: the incumbent Premier of New Brunswick, Bernard Lord, had pledged a vote would be held on October 15, 2007 but when the ruling Progressive Conservatives faced a loss of its majority in the legislature, Lord said he did not want to face a minority government and, moreover, feared that a by-election could tip the balance of power to the opposition Liberals.
The campaign was hard fought with pundits and pollsters calling it too close to call throughout the five week campaign. In the end, it was won by the Liberals led by Shawn Graham. The Liberals won 29 seats to 26 for the Progressive Conservatives, although the Progressive Conservatives won a plurality of the popular vote (47.5% to 47.2%).
Unusually, the Liberals won 17 of the 36 predominantly anglophone ridings, their best showing in a competitive election in English New Brunswick since the 1944 election. The Conservatives conversely did better than they have ever done while losing an election among Francophone ridings.
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Following the report of the Commission on Legislative Democracy in December 2004, which recommended fixed election dates beginning on October 15, 2007, Premier Bernard Lord pledged to introduce legislation fixing election dates, beginning on that date. Due to this, and because it is tradition in New Brunswick to hold elections every four years, the Progressive Conservative government and media had routinely referred to this as the "2007 election" though early 2006. The opposition Liberals however always pledged to try to force an early election.
From February through May 2006, it seemed possible that the Liberals might be successful in their goal as on February 17, 2006 Michael Malley left the Progressive Conservative caucus creating a minority government situation, Malley later became Speaker and, as Speaker, controversially rejoined the government caucus. The situation remained difficult for some time as the Liberals gained control of several key committees upon Malley's defection and would not return control to the government as they did not recognize Malley's change of affiliation while speaker. On May 30, 2006, the House reaffirmed its confidence in Malley in a vote and on May 31, 2006 the government and opposition announced a truce to allow the House to function more easily including a legislative calendar through 2007. As a result, it seemed unlikely that the government would fall prior to its chosen date to go to the polls.
However, Peter Mesheau, a Progressive Conservative MLA who had already announced that he would not run for re-election, said he would have to resign his seat as he had accepted a job in the private sector. Lord said that he would not face another hung parliament and announced on August 10, 2006 that he would seek an election date of September 18. On August 18, Lord asked Lieutenant-Governor Herménégilde Chiasson to dissolve the legislature and set the election date. [1]
The emerging key issues of the campaign seem to be leadership and energy prices. The Progressive Conservatives have for some years questioned the leadership abilities of Shawn Graham, the leader of the opposition while the Liberals have been focusing on energy in general as a theme for some time. Moreover, energy has come to the forefront due to the introduction of gas price regulation by Lord's government on July 1, 2006 and the Liberals announced their energy platform prior to beginning of the campaign.
This election was the first campaign since the 1987 election in which Elizabeth Weir did not lead the smaller social democratic New Democratic Party (NDP). In 2005, Weir stepped down after seventeen years as NDP leader. She was succeeded by Fredericton-based social activist Allison Brewer, who stood for election in the riding of Fredericton-Lincoln.
The Progressive Conservative party were again be led by Bernard Lord and the Liberal Party by Shawn Graham.
The campaign was derided by jouralists and political scientists as boring in part because much of the campaign was before Labour Day when many families were still taking summer holidays and also because the overall aspects of the two main parties were similar.
There were three English language debates and two French languages debates with some being declared draws, some wins for Lord and some wins for Graham by the experts. Opinion polls showed the Conservatives with a lead in the early days of the campaign but the last few weeks showed ties or slight edges to the Liberals within the margin of error.
On election day, Shawn Graham and the Liberals won the most seats, however they lost the popular vote. Bernard Lord was the first premier not elected to a third term since Hugh John Flemming lost his bid for a third term in the 1960 election while the NDP suffered a considerable blow being shut out of the legislature despite having won a seat in 5 of the last 6 elections and seeing their popular vote slip 4% to their worst showing since the 1974 election.
The Fredericton Daily Gleaner reported on August 11, 2006 that they had asked the leaders of each party for what they thought the key issues of the campaign would be:
An opinion poll, conducted for CTV Atlantic by the Innovative Research Group the last week of the campaign found the follow issues were top of mind for voters:
| Party | Party leader | # of candidates |
Seats | Popular vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | Dissolution | Elected | % Change | # | % | Change | ||||
| Liberal | Shawn Graham | 55 | 26 | 26 | 29 | +11.5% | 176,410 | 47.1% | +2.7% | |
| Progressive Conservative | Bernard Lord | 55 | 28 | 28 | 26 | -7.1% | 177,744 | 47.5% | +2.1% | |
| New Democratic | Allison Brewer | 48 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -100% | 19,212 | 5.1% | -4.6% | |
| Independent | 4 | - | 1 | - | 935 | 0.2% | +0.1% | |||
| Total | 162 | 55 | 55 | 55 | - | 374,301 | 100% | |||
| Source: http://www.gnb.ca/elections | ||||||||||
| Party Name | Central | North East | North West | South East | South West | Total | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | Seats: | 5 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 29 | |||||||||
| Popular Vote: | 46.0% | 53.6% | 41.6% | 43.6% | 48.5% | 47.2% | ||||||||||
| Progressive Conservative |
Seats: | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 26 | |||||||||
| Popular Vote: | 47.7% | 40.2% | 54.2% | 53.0% | 44.5% | 47.5% | ||||||||||
| Total seats: | 9 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 12 | 55 | ||||||||||
| Parties that won no seats: | ||||||||||||||||
| New Democratic |
Popular Vote: | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | |||||||||
| Independents | Popular Vote: | - | 0.3% | - | - | 0.9% | 0.2% | |||||||||
Many new and changed districts will be used for the first time in this election as a result of an electoral redistribution.
Legend
| Electoral District | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PC | Liberal | NDP | Other | |||||||
| 1. Campbellton-Restigouche Centre | Greg Davis 3,248 (43.4%) | Roy Boudreau 4,232 (56.6%) | Roy Boudreau | |||||||
| 2. Dalhousie-Restigouche East | Ronald Barriault 2,081 (25.9%) | Donald Arseneault 5,502 (68.5%) | Lyndsey Gallant 454 (5.6%) | Donald Arseneault | ||||||
| 3. Nigadoo-Chaleur | Gérard Mallais 2,597 (35.7%) | Roland Haché 4,311 (59.5%) | Lucie Desaulnier 334 (4.6%) | Roland Haché | ||||||
| 4. Bathurst | Nancy McKay 3,037 (46.1%) | Brian Kenny 3,224 (48.9%) | Blair Lindsay 328 (5.0%) | Brian Kenny | ||||||
| 5. Nepisiguit | Gerry Legere 2,448 (42.3%) | Cheryl Lavoie 2,844 (49.2%) | Charles Fournier 489 (8.5%) | Frank Branch† | ||||||
| 6. Caraquet | Claude L'Espérance 1,677 (23.2%) | Hédard Albert 4,580 (63.4%) | Stéphane Doiron 966 (13.4%) | Hédard Albert | ||||||
| 7. Lamèque-Shippagan-Miscou | Paul Robichaud 4,348 (57.5%) | Denis Roussel 2,795 (37.0%) | Juliette Paulin 418 (5.5%) | Paul Robichaud | ||||||
| 8. Centre-Péninsule-Saint-Sauveur | Louis-Philippe McGraw 3,235 (43.9%) | Denis Landry 4,142 (56.1%) | Denis Landry | |||||||
| 9. Tracadie-Sheila | Claude Landry 4,043 (53.4%) | Serge Rousselle 3,281 (43.3%) | Stephane Richardson (Ind.) 250 (3.3%) | Elvy Robichaud† | ||||||
| 10. Miramichi Bay-Neguac | Guy Vautour 1,963 (28.7%) | Carmel Robichaud 3,083 (45.1%) | Roger Duguay 1,791 (26.2%) | Carmel Robichaud | ||||||
| 11. Miramichi-Bay du Vin | Michael Malley 2,720 (38.4%) | Bill Fraser 4,187 (59.1%) | Dwayne Hancock 181 (2.6%) | Michael Malley | ||||||
| 12. Miramichi Centre | George Smith 2,732 (40.6%) | John Foran 3,747 (55.6%) | Douglas Mullin 258 (3.8%) | John Foran | ||||||
| 13. Southwest Miramichi | Brent Taylor 2,844 (44.5%) | Rick Brewer 3,327 (52.1%) | Lydia Calhoun 217 (3.4%) | Rick Brewer | ||||||
| Electoral District | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PC | Liberal | NDP | Other | |||||||
| 14. Rogersville-Kouchibouguac | Rose-May Poirier 4,332 (55.5%) | Emery Comeau 3,112 (39.9%) | Oscar Doucet 356 (4.6%) | Rose-May Poirier | ||||||
| 15. Kent | Aldéo Saulnier 3,060 (45.0%) | Shawn Graham 3,534 (51.9%) | Graham Cox 209 (3.1%) | Shawn Graham | ||||||
| 16. Kent South | Claude Williams 4,890 (58.5%) | Nadine Hébert 3,463 (41.5%) | Claude Williams | |||||||
| 17. Shediac-Cap-Pelé | Leo Doiron 3,639 (40.3%) | Victor Boudreau 5,116 (56.6%) | Richard Pellerin 283 (3.1%) | Victor Boudreau | ||||||
| 18. Tantramar | Mike Olscamp 2,690 (54.4%) | John Higham 1,718 (34.7%) | Virgil Hammock 536 (10.8%) | Peter Mesheau† | ||||||
| 19. Memramcook-Lakeville-Dieppe | Fortunat Duguay 2,680 (39.3%) | Bernard LeBlanc 3,845 (56.4%) | Carl Bainbridge 287 (4.2%) | new district | ||||||
| 20. Dieppe Centre-Lewisville | Cy LeBlanc* 4,347 (48.8%) | Bruno Roy 4,289 (48.2%) | Valier Santerre 271 (3.0%) | new district | ||||||
| 21. Moncton East | Bernard Lord 3,816 (54.8%) | Brian Gallant 2,827 (40.6%) | Mark Robar 319 (4.6%) | Bernard Lord | ||||||
| 22. Moncton West | Joan MacAlpine-Stiles 3,317 (52.4%) | Gene Devereux 3,012 (47.6%) | Joan MacAlpine-Stiles | |||||||
| 23. Moncton North | Marie-Claude Blais 2,469 (44.9%) | Mike Murphy 2,707 (49.2%) | Cindy Rix 326 (5.9%) | Mike Murphy | ||||||
| 24. Moncton Crescent | John Betts 4,271 (54.6%) | Shirley Smallwood 3,278 (41.9%) | Ian Thorn 283 (3.6%) | John Betts | ||||||
| 25. Petitcodiac | Wally Stiles 4,651 (65.0%) | Terry Keating 2,116 (29.6%) | Rebecca Lewis-Marshall 392 (5.5%) | Wally Stiles | ||||||
| 26. Riverview | Bruce Fitch 4,326 (63.3%) | Ward White 2,302 (33.7%) | Richard Grant 202 (3.0%) | Bruce Fitch | ||||||
| 27. Albert | Wayne Steeves 4,439 (70.0%) | Clark Butland 1,902 (30.0%) | Wayne Steeves | |||||||
| Electoral District | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PC | Liberal | NDP | Other | |||||||
| 28. Kings East | Bruce Northrup 4,071 (57.2%) | LeRoy Armstrong 2,798 (39.3%) | Dana Brown 248 (3.5%) | LeRoy Armstrong | ||||||
| 29. Hampton-Kings | Bev Harrison 4,195 (58.6%) | Linda Watson 1,787 (25.0%) | Pat Hanratty 918 (12.8%) | John Sabine (Ind.) 255 (3.6%) | Bev Harrison | |||||
| 30. Quispamsis | Brenda Fowlie 3,108 (44.0%) | Mary Schryer 3,625 (51.3%) | Lorena Henry 334 (4.7%) | Brenda Fowlie | ||||||
| 31. Saint John-Fundy | James Huttges 2,132 (37.8%) | Stuart Jamieson 3,124 (55.5%) | Mark LeBlanc 377 (6.7%) | Stuart Jamieson | ||||||
| 32. Rothesay | Margaret-Ann Blaney 2,853 (48.6%) | Paul Barry 2,765 (47.1%) | Troy Polchies 249 (4.2%) | Margaret-Ann Blaney | ||||||
| 33. Saint John East | Joe Mott 1,860 (32.9%) | Roly MacIntyre 3,406 (60.2%) | Maureen Michaud 394 (7.0%) | Roly MacIntyre | ||||||
| 34. Saint John Harbour | Idee Inyangudor 1,139 (25.8%) | Ed Doherty 2,690 (60.9%) | Dan Robichaud 547 (12.4%) | David Raymond Amos (Ind.) 44 (1.0%) | Ed Doherty | |||||
| 35. Saint John Portland | Trevor Holder 2,987 (50.0%) | Colleen Knudson 2,710 (45.3%) | Claire Mudge 281 (4.7%) | Trevor Holder | ||||||
| 36. Saint John Lancaster | Peter Hyslop 2,499 (36.8%) | Abel LeBlanc 4,002 (59.0%) | Jennifer Carkner 283 (4.2%) | Abel LeBlanc | ||||||
| 37. Fundy-River Valley | Borden DeLong 2,594 (42.8%) | Jack Keir 2,793 (46.1%) | Percy Ward 285 (4.7%) | Colby Fraser (Ind.) 386 (6.4%) | Milt Sherwood† | |||||
| 38. Charlotte-The Isles | Wayne Sturgeon 2,627 (40.3%) | Rick Doucet 3,619 (55.6%) | Sharon Greenlaw 267 (4.1%) | Rick Doucet | ||||||
| merged district | ||||||||||
| Eric Allaby† | ||||||||||
| 39. Charlotte-Campobello | Tony Huntjens 3,157 (50.0%) | Robert Tinker 2,875 (45.3%) | Andrew Graham 312 (4.9%) | Tony Huntjens | ||||||
| Electoral District | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PC | Liberal | NDP | Other | |||||||
| 40. Oromocto | Jody Carr 3,181 (66.4%) | Shelby Mercer 1,451 (30.3%) | Stephen Beam 157 (3.3%) | Jody Carr | ||||||
| 41. Grand Lake-Gagetown | Jack Carr 3,324 (45.7%) | Eugene McGinley* 3,545 (48.7%) | Helen Partridge 412 (5.7%) | new district | ||||||
| 42. Fredericton-Nashwaaksis | Mike Smith 3,698 (47.1%) | T.J. Burke* 3,855 (49.1%) | Aaron Doucette 304 (3.9%) | new district | ||||||
| 43. Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak | Heather Hughes 2,800 (42.3%) | Kelly Lamrock 3,817 (57.7%) | T.J. Burke | |||||||
| merged district | ||||||||||
| Kelly Lamrock | ||||||||||
| 44. Fredericton-Lincoln | William Forrestall 2,427 (35.5%) | Greg Byrne 3,354 (49.0%) | Allison Brewer 1,057 (15.5%) | new district | ||||||
| 45. Fredericton-Silverwood | Brad Green 2,880 (40.1%) | Rick Miles 3,335 (47.4%) | Dennis Atchison 815 (11.6%) | Brad Green | ||||||
| 46. New Maryland-Sunbury West | Keith Ashfield 3,222 (52.0%) | Les Smith 2,666 (43.0%) | Brecken Hancock 307 (5.0%) | Keith Ashfield | ||||||
| 47. York | Carl Urquhart 3,100 (48.2%) | Trent Jewett 2,943 (45.8%) | Derek Simons 382 (5.9%) | Scott Targett† | ||||||
| 48. York North | Kirk MacDonald 4,061 (55.7%) | Larry Jewett 2,854 (39.1%) | Anne Leslie 379 (5.2%) | Kirk MacDonald | ||||||
| Electoral District | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PC | Liberal | NDP | Other | |||||||
| 49. Woodstock | David Alward 3,867 (54.1%) | Art Slipp 2,936 (41.1%) | Garth Brewer 345 (4.8%) | David Alward | ||||||
| 50. Carleton | Dale Graham 4,148 (64.1%) | Gwen Cullins-Jones 2,086 (32.2%) | Jason Robar 235 (3.6%) | Dale Graham | ||||||
| 51. Victoria-Tobique | Chris McLaughlin 1,447 (25.6%) | Larry Kennedy 4,043 (71.6%) | Paul Kendal 153 (2.7%) | Larry Kennedy | ||||||
| 52. Grand Falls-Drummond-Saint-André | Maurice Picard 2,733 (40.6%) | Ron Ouellette 3,752 (55.7%) | Pierre Cyr 254 (3.8%) | Ron Ouellette | ||||||
| 53. Restigouche-La-Vallée | Percy Mockler 3,835 (53.0%) | Burt Paulin 2,806 (38.8%) | Alain Martel 599 (8.3%) | Burt Paulin | ||||||
| merged district | ||||||||||
| Percy Mockler | ||||||||||
| 54. Edmundston-Saint-Basile | Madeleine Dubé 5,631 (71.6%) | Jean-Louis Johnson 2,000 (25.4%) | Michael Bosse 235 (3.0%) | Madeleine Dubé | ||||||
| 55. Madawaska-les-Lacs | Jeannot Volpé 4,268 (63.2%) | Élaine Albert 2,297 (34.0%) | Jeff Thibodeau 183 (2.7%) | Jeannot Volpé | ||||||
The 2006 New Brunswick general election provided a textbook example of what non-partisan electoral reform groups see as the major problems with what they describe as an outdated first-past-the-post voting system.
Generally speaking, concern from these groups focuses around the facts that a) the party that won the popular vote (Progressive Conservatives by 0.3%) received three fewer seats than the party that finished second in overall votes (Liberals); b) a party that finished with less than 50% of the popular vote (Liberals with 47.2%) received a "false majority" and total effective governing power over the province; and c) over 20,000 votes cast for NDP and independent candidates are completely unrepresented in the New Brunswick Legislature.
Fair Vote Canada Executive Director Larry Gordon was quick to express his dismay with the outcome. "In a democracy, you would think any party failing to win a majority of votes should not have majority control of the legislature," he said. "You would certainly not expect a party coming in second place to be given complete control of the political agenda."[2]
There is a history of similar "false results" in the province and across Canada. In fact, despite being "penalized" by the system this time, over the last 40 years the New Brunswick Progressive Conservatives have twice been awarded more seats than any other party despite finishing second in the popular vote (1970 and 1974). Outgoing Premier Bernard Lord stated as much on election night and therefore chose not to criticize this election's result.
Lord had previously promised to hold an electoral reform referendum on May 12, 2008. If the promised vote on a mixed-member proportional system (MMP) goes ahead under the new government, "pro side" groups advocating reform are likely to make much of the 1970, 1974 and 2006 election results as well as numerous other false majorities recorded throughout the province's history.
The only inter-election opinion polling regularly conducted in New Brunswick is by the Halifax, Nova Scotia-based Corporate Research Associates. Every CRA poll from the November 2003 to June 2006 showed the Liberals in the lead by varying amounts. However, their last pre-election poll, released on June 12, 2006, showed the Progressive Conservatives making a come back with 45% to 39% for the Liberals and 9% for the NDP. The CRA poll conducted during the 2003 election campaign showed the Liberals and PCs tied at 41% each, the only polling company to predict the close result that became of that campaign.
Polls conducted during the election campaign - Figures represent decided voters
| Polling firm | Dates | PC Party | Liberal | NDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omnifacts Bristol | September 10 to 13, 2006 | 46% | 46% | 7% |
| Innovative Research Group | September 8 to 10, 2006 | 43% | 45% | 11% |
| Corporate Research Associates | September 7 to 10, 2006 | 42% | 44% | 10% |
| Omnifacts Bristol* | September 5 to 7, 2006 | 50% | 44% | 5% |
| Corporate Research Associates | August 17 to August 30, 2006 | 45% | 38% | 10% |
| Omnifacts Bristol | August 22 to 24, 2006 | 46% | 45% | 8% |
* This poll reused the same sample as the August 22-24 poll and is therefore not a random sampling and not technically an opinion poll.
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