List of SPC high-risk days

The following days had a declaration of a High Risk of severe weather in a certain part of the United States according to the Storm Prediction Center (and its predecessor, the National Severe Storms Forecast Center).

Such indicates a forecast of an extreme severe weather event (in most cases, a major tornado outbreak). There are 88 known days since 1984 that such a declaration was issued. Busts indicate days that a severe weather outbreak was expected but never materialized, with little or no significant severe weather activity, or materialized well outside of the forecasted area. Limited details are available for days before the late 1990s, and it is probable that there were additional High Risk days with no online documentation, especially in the 1980s.

The only month that has not recorded a known High Risk day is September. No High Risk has ever been issued west of the Great Plains.

Date Area Results Notes
March 28, 1984 Carolinas[1] Tornado outbreak produced ≥24 tornadoes; killed 57
May 7, 1988 Oklahoma Busted; few severe reports
November 15, 1989 Southern U.S.[2] Tornado outbreak produced 18 tornadoes; killed 21
March 13, 1990 Central U.S. Tornado outbreak produced 56 tornadoes; killed 2 Unconfirmed risk level
May 15, 1990 Oklahoma Small tornado event produced 19 tornadoes; killed 1
June 2, 1990 Ohio Valley Tornado outbreak produced 88 tornadoes; killed 9
April 11, 1991 Kansas Busted; few severe reports
April 12, 1991 Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Moderate tornado/hail event First known back-to-back High Risk days
April 26, 1991 Kansas, Oklahoma Tornado outbreak produced 58 tornadoes; killed 24
April 28, 1991 Kansas Busted; only a few tornadoes and severe reports
June 16, 1992 Midwest[3] Second day of a three-day tornado outbreak produced 65 tornadoes; killed 1
June 17, 1992 Great Lakes region[3] Third day of a three-day tornado outbreak produced 29 tornadoes and a large serial derecho; no deaths
June 7, 1993 Upper Midwest Tornado outbreak produced 41 tornadoes; no deaths
March 27, 1994 Southern U.S. Tornado outbreak produced 26 tornadoes; killed 42
April 25, 1994 Central U.S. End of tornado outbreak sequence that produced 29 tornadoes and many hail reports; killed 3
August 27, 1994 Upper Midwest Small tornado outbreak produced 12 tornadoes; killed 4 Only High Risk ever issued in August
November 27, 1994 Southern U.S. Tornado outbreak produced 19 tornadoes; killed 6
April 17, 1995 Oklahoma, Texas Primarily a derecho; but 21 tornadoes (mostly weak) reported
May 7, 1995 Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas First part of a tornado outbreak sequence that produced 32 tornadoes; killed 3
May 12, 1995 Kansas Second part of the same tornado outbreak sequence that produced 13 tornadoes; although mostly a bust
May 13, 1995 Ohio Valley Continuation of the same tornado outbreak sequence that produced 27 tornadoes and a long derecho; killed 3
May 17, 1995 Kansas Continuation of the same tornado outbreak sequence although again mostly a bust; only 8 tornadoes and few other reports
April 19, 1996 Illinois, Indiana Tornado outbreak produced 74 tornadoes (plus more the next day); killed 1
May 26, 1996 Kansas, Oklahoma Small tornado event became a mini-derecho
May 2, 1997 Mississippi, Alabama Progressive derecho that also produced 8 tornadoes; killed 1
July 1, 1997 Upper Mississippi Valley Moderate tornado outbreak reorganized into a progressive derecho
February 10, 1998 Texas, Louisiana Rare winter serial derecho
April 8, 1998 Alabama[4] Tornado outbreak produced 15 tornadoes (mostly in more urbanized areas) plus widespread wind and hail; killed 41
April 15, 1998 Middle Mississippi Valley First day of a two-day tornado outbreak that produced 23 tornadoes; killed 4
April 16, 1998 Tennessee Second day of a two-day tornado outbreak that produced 38 tornadoes including the Nashville tornado; killed 8
May 31, 1998 Northeastern U.S.[5][6][7][8] Major derecho and tornado outbreak produced 39 tornadoes and enormous wind damage; killed 7 Only High Risk ever issued in the Northeast
June 14, 1998 Ohio Valley Small tornado event produced 22 mostly weak tornadoes followed by a progressive derecho
January 21, 1999 Arkansas[9][10] Tornado outbreak produced 99 tornadoes; killed 9 Only High Risk ever issued in January
March 8, 1999 Arkansas, Louisiana Busted; few tornadoes with some scattered hail and wind
April 8, 1999 Iowa, Missouri, Illinois Tornado outbreak produced 56 tornadoes; killed 6
May 3, 1999 Oklahoma, Kansas[11] Tornado outbreak produced 61 tornadoes; killed 48
May 4, 1999 Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas[11] Second day of the same tornado outbreak produced 39 tornadoes; killed 1
May 5, 1999 Southern U.S. Third day of the same tornado outbreak produced 18 tornadoes plus a significant serial derecho; killed 3 First and only occurrence of three consecutive High Risk days
June 5, 1999 South Dakota, Nebraska[12] Busted; isolated tornadoes and scattered wind and hail damage A shortwave ridge maintained a capping inversion.[13]
April 6, 2001 Oklahoma, Kansas[14] Serial derecho with widespread wind damage
April 11, 2001 Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin[15] Tornado outbreak produced 40 tornadoes; killed 2[16]
June 11, 2001 Minnesota, Wisconsin[17] Progressive derecho with widespread wind damage. Unofficial thunderstorm wind gust of 119 miles per hour (192 km/h) near Atwater, Minnesota.[18]
October 13, 2001 U.S. Gulf Coast[19] Tornado outbreak produced 31 tornadoes
October 24, 2001 Midwest[20] Tornado outbreak produced 25 tornadoes plus a major serial derecho; killed 2
April 16, 2002 Upper Midwest[21] Busted; isolated wind damage and tornadoes
July 31, 2002 Minnesota, Wisconsin[22] Busted; isolated wind damage
November 10, 2002 Midwest and Southern U.S.[23] Tornado outbreak produced 76 tornadoes and extensive wind damage; killed 36
December 23, 2002 Texas, Louisiana[24] Busted; tornado event produced 15 weak tornadoes Only High Risk ever issued in December
April 6, 2003 Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi[25] Localized tornado event produced 23 tornadoes
May 4, 2003 Central U.S.[26] Day 5 of a tornado outbreak sequence produced 86 tornadoes; killed 38
May 5, 2003 Southern U.S.[27] Day 6 of a tornado outbreak sequence produced 22 tornadoes but no deaths
May 8, 2003 Kansas, Oklahoma[28] Day 9 of a tornado outbreak sequence produced 42 tornadoes but no deaths
May 10, 2003 Central U.S.[29] Day 11 of a tornado outbreak sequence produced 60 tornadoes but no deaths
May 15, 2003 Texas, Oklahoma[30] Tornado outbreak produced 49 tornadoes
March 4, 2004 Texas, Oklahoma[31] Busted; isolated tornadoes outside the risk area reorganized into a large serial derecho
May 22, 2004 Nebraska, Iowa[32] Tornado outbreak produced 68 tornadoes; killed 1
May 24, 2004 Nebraska, Iowa[33] Hybrid derecho/tornado outbreak produced 54 tornadoes; killed 1
May 29, 2004 Central U.S.[34] First day of a two-day tornado outbreak produced 80 tornadoes; killed 3
May 30, 2004 Central U.S.[35] Second day of a two-day tornado outbreak produced 86 tornadoes; killed 2 Largest High Risk area ever issued
April 11, 2005 Louisiana, Mississippi[36] Busted; only isolated wind damage which killed 1
June 4, 2005 Central U.S.[37] Tornado outbreak produced 44 tornadoes
November 15, 2005 Midwest and Southern U.S.[38] Tornado outbreak produced 50 tornadoes; killed 2
March 12, 2006 Midwest[39] Tornado outbreak produced 62 tornadoes; killed 8
April 6, 2006 Nebraska, Kansas[40] First day of a three-day tornado outbreak produced 13 tornadoes, but no deaths
April 7, 2006 Southern U.S.[41] Second day of a three-day tornado outbreak produced 49 tornadoes; killed 13 Only High Risk to be issued on Day 2 (the day before the event)[42]
March 1, 2007 Southern U.S.[43] Tornado outbreak produced 37 tornadoes; killed 20
April 13, 2007 Texas[44] Busted; only a few reports of tornadoes and scattered hail damage; killed 1
April 24, 2007 Texas[45] Busted; although some tornadoes and wind reports outside the risk area; killed 7
May 5, 2007 Nebraska, Kansas[46] Second day of a three-day tornado outbreak produced 84 tornadoes; killed 2
June 7, 2007 Upper Midwest[47] Localized tornado event reorganized into a moderate wind event
February 5, 2008 Middle Mississippi Valley[48] Tornado outbreak produced 87 tornadoes; killed 57
March 15, 2008 Georgia, South Carolina[49] Tornado outbreak produced 44 tornadoes; killed 2
May 22, 2008 Kansas[50] Day 1 of a tornado outbreak sequence produced 24 tornadoes; killed 1
May 29, 2008 Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota[51] Day 8 of a tornado outbreak sequence produced 42 tornadoes but no deaths
June 5, 2008 Midwest[52] Day 3 of a tornado outbreak sequence produced 15 tornadoes (and a large serial derecho) but no deaths
April 10, 2009 Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee [53] Second day of a two-day tornado outbreak produced 59 tornadoes; killed 2
April 26, 2009 Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas [54] Busted; few tornadoes reported
April 24, 2010 Southern U.S. [55] Tornado outbreak produced 39 tornadoes; killed 10[56]
April 30, 2010 Arkansas[57] Second day of a five-day tornado outbreak produced 27 tornadoes; killed 1[58]
May 1, 2010 Middle Mississippi Valley[59] Third day of a five-day tornado outbreak produced 35 tornadoes; killed 4 Major flood disaster also occurred from the same storm
May 10, 2010 Oklahoma, Kansas [60] Tornado outbreak produced 67 tornadoes; killed 3
May 19, 2010 Oklahoma [61] Some tornadoes reported, mostly in open country
October 26, 2010 Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan [62] Tornado outbreak produced 54 tornadoes and a major serial derecho, but no deaths Event set record for the deepest extratropical low over the continental US
April 16, 2011 North Carolina, Virginia [63] Third day of a three-day tornado outbreak produced 52 tornadoes; killed 26
April 26, 2011 South-Central U.S.[64] Second day of a four-day tornado outbreak produced 119 tornadoes; killed 4
April 27, 2011 Southern U.S.[65] Third and most prolific day of a four-day tornado outbreak produced 169 tornadoes; killed 313 Deadliest High Risk day, event set record for most tornadoes in a 24-hour period
May 24, 2011 Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas[66] Fourth day of a multi-day tornado outbreak produced 34 tornadoes; killed 17
May 25, 2011 Midwest[67] Fifth day of a multi-day tornado outbreak produced 73 tornadoes and a major serial derecho, but no deaths

References

  1. ^ http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/19840328/conv_outlook_19z.jpg
  2. ^ http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/significant_events/1989/11_15/graphics/swody15z.jpg
  3. ^ a b Ostby, Frederick P. (1992). "Operations of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center". National Severe Storms Forecast Center. http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0434/7/4/pdf/i1520-0434-7-4-546.pdf. Retrieved 2008-08-02. 
  4. ^ NOAA's National Weather Service - Birmingham, Alabama
  5. ^ Derecho - May 31, 1998
  6. ^ The Southern Great Lakes Derecho of 1998
  7. ^ Storm Prediction Center May 31, 1998 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  8. ^ Storm Prediction Center May 31, 1998 1500 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  9. ^ http://www.targetarea.net/pic3/high21.jpg
  10. ^ Front Page Display and Description-Example
  11. ^ a b Eric Nguyen's 1999 Chase Documents!
  12. ^ http://www.nwas.org/ej/2007-EJ3/figure_1.htm
  13. ^ Identification of Inhibiting Factors of a Null Significant Tornado Event
  14. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2001). "Severe weather outlook for April 6, 2001". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/010406/spcotlk-nav-4.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  15. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2001). "Severe weather outlook for April 11, 2001". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/010411/spcotlk-nav-4.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  16. ^ Fox News Story (April 12, 2001). "Two dead in Agency Twister". http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,6436,00.html. Retrieved 2008-04-10. 
  17. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2001). "Severe weather outlook for June 11, 2001". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/010611/spcotlk-nav-4.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  18. ^ http://climate.umn.edu/pdf/day_in_weather_history/june_wx_history.pdf
  19. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2001). "Severe weather outlook for October 13, 2001". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/011013/spcotlk-nav-4.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  20. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2001). "Severe weather outlook for October 24, 2001". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/011024/spcotlk-nav-4.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  21. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2002). "Severe weather outlook for April 16, 2002". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/020416/spcotlk-nav-2.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  22. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2002). "Severe weather outlook for July 31, 2002". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/020731/spcotlk-nav-1.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  23. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2002). "Severe weather outlook for November 10, 2002". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/021110/spcotlk-nav-5.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  24. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2002). "Severe weather outlook for December 23, 2002". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/021223/spcotlk-nav-4.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  25. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2003). "Severe weather outlook for April 6, 2003". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2003/day1otlk_20030406_2000.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  26. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2003). "Severe weather outlook for May 4, 2003". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2003/day1otlk_20030504_2000.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  27. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2003). "Severe weather outlook for May 5, 2003". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2003/day1otlk_20030505_2000.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  28. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2003). "Severe weather outlook for May 8, 2003". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2003/day1otlk_20030508_2000.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  29. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2003). "Severe weather outlook for May 10, 2003". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2003/day1otlk_20030510_1630.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  30. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2003). "Severe weather report for May 15, 2003". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2003/day1otlk_20030515_2000.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  31. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2004). "Severe weather outlook for March 4, 2004". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2004/day1otlk_20040304_2000.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  32. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2004). "Severe weather outlook for May 22, 2004". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2004/day1otlk_20040523_0100.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  33. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2004). "Severe weather outlook for May 24, 2004". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2004/day1otlk_20040524_1200.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  34. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2004). "Severe weather outlook for May 29, 2004". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2004/day1otlk_20040529_2000.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  35. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2004). "Severe weather outlook for May 30, 2004". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2004/day1otlk_20040530_2000.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  36. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2005). "Severe weather outlook for April 11, 2005". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2005/day1otlk_20050411_1630.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  37. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2005). "Severe weather outlook for June 4, 2005". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2005/day1otlk_20050604_1300.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  38. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2005). "Severe weather outlook for November 15, 2005". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2005/day1otlk_20051115_1630.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  39. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2006). "Severe weather outlook for March 12, 2006". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day1otlk_20060312_2000.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  40. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2006). "Severe weather outlook for April 6, 2006". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day1otlk_20060406_1630.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  41. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2006). "Severe weather outlook for April 7, 2006". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day1otlk_20060407_2000.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  42. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2006). "Severe weather outlook for April 7, 2006 (Day 2)". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day2otlk_20060406_1730.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  43. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2007). "Severe weather outlook for March 1, 2007". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2007/day1otlk_20070301_1300.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  44. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2007). "Severe weather outlook for April 13, 2007". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2007/day1otlk_20070413_2000.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  45. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2007). "Severe weather outlook for April 24, 2007". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2007/day1otlk_20070424_2000.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  46. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2007). "Severe weather outlook for May 5, 2007". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2007/day1otlk_20070505_1630.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  47. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2007). "Severe weather outlook for June 7, 2007". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2007/day1otlk_20070607_1200.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  48. ^ Storm Prediction Center (2008). "Severe weather outlook for February 5, 2008". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2008/day1otlk_20080205_2000.html. Retrieved 2008-03-12. 
  49. ^ Storm Prediction Center Mar 15, 2008 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  50. ^ Storm Prediction Center May 22, 2008 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  51. ^ Storm Prediction Center May 29, 2008 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  52. ^ Storm Prediction Center June 5, 2008 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  53. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 10, 2009 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  54. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 26, 2009 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  55. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 24, 2010 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  56. ^ http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html
  57. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 30, 2010 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  58. ^ http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36882634/ns/weather/
  59. ^ Storm Prediction Center May 1, 2010 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  60. ^ Storm Prediction Center May 10, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  61. ^ Storm Prediction Center May 19, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  62. ^ Storm Prediction Center October 26, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  63. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 16, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  64. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 26, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  65. ^ Storm Prediction Center April 27, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  66. ^ Storm Prediction Center May 24, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
  67. ^ Storm Prediction Center May 25, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

External links