Kardashev scale

The Kardashev scale is a method of measuring an advanced civilization's level of technological advancement. The scale is only theoretical and in terms of an actual civilization highly speculative; however, it puts energy consumption of an entire civilization in a cosmic perspective. It was first proposed in 1964 by the Soviet Russian astronomer Nikolai Kardashev. The scale has three designated categories called Type I, II, and III. These are based on the amount of usable energy a civilization has at its disposal, and the degree of space colonization. In general terms, a Type I civilization has achieved mastery of the resources of its home planet, Type II of its solar system, and Type III of its galaxy.[1]

Contents

Definition

In 1964, Kardashev defined three levels of civilizations, based on the order of magnitude of the amount of power available to them:

Current status of human civilization

Michio Kaku suggested that humans may attain Type I status in about 100–200 years, Type II status in a few thousand years, and Type III status in about 100,000 to a million years.[4]

Carl Sagan suggested to define intermediate values (not considered in Kardashev's original) by interpolating and extrapolating the values given above for types 1, 2 and 3, by using the formula

K = \frac{\log_{10}{MW}} {10},

where value K is a civilization's Kardashev rating and MW is the power it uses for interstellar communication, in megawatts. He calculated humanity's civilization type (in 1973) to be about 0.7, with respect to this extrapolation (apparently using 10 terawatt (TW) as the value for 1970s humanity).[5]

Energy development

Type I civilization methods

Type II civilization methods

Type III civilization methods

Type III civilizations might use the same techniques employed by a Type II civilization, but applied to all of the stars of one or more galaxies individually.[16] They may also be able to tap into the energy released from the supermassive black holes which are believed to exist at the center of most galaxies.

Civilization implications

There are many historical examples of human civilization undergoing large-scale transitions, such as the Industrial Revolution. The transition between Kardashev scale levels could potentially represent similarly dramatic periods of social upheaval, since they entail surpassing the hard limits of the resources available in a civilization's existing territory. A common speculation[17] suggests that the transition from Type 0 to Type I might carry a strong risk of self-destruction since, in some scenarios, there would no longer be room for further expansion on the civilization's home planet, similar to a Malthusian catastrophe. Excessive use of energy without adequate disposal of heat, for example, could plausibly make the planet of a civilization approaching Type I unsuitable to the biology of the dominant life-forms and their food sources. If Earth is an example, then sea temperatures in excess of 35 °C would jeopardize marine life and make the cooling of mammals to temperatures suitable for their metabolism difficult if not impossible. Of course, these theoretical speculations may not become problems in reality thanks to the application of future engineering and technology. Also, by the time a civilization reaches Type I it may have colonized other planets or created O'Neill-type colonies, so the amount of waste heat could be distributed throughout the solar system.

Extensions to the original scale

The state that human civilization currently occupies was originally Type I in the Kardashev scale, but has a K value below 1 using Sagan's logarithmic formula (described above).

Zoltan Galantai has defined a further extrapolation of the scale, a Type IV level which controls the energy output of the visible universe; this is within a few orders of magnitude of 1045 W. Such a civilization approaches or surpasses the limits of speculation based on current scientific understanding, and may not be possible. Frank J. Tipler's Omega point would presumably occupy this level, as would the Biocosm hypothesis. Galantai has argued that such a civilization could not be detected, as its activities would be indistinguishable from the workings of nature (there being nothing to compare them to).[18]

However, Milan M. Ćirković has argued that "Type IV" should instead be used to refer to a civilization that has harnessed the power of its supercluster, or "the largest gravitationally bound structure it originated in."[19] For the Local Supercluster, this would be approximately 1042 W.

Dr. Michio Kaku has discussed a Type IV civilization, which could harness "extragalactic" energy sources such as dark energy, in his book Parallel Worlds.[20]

In contrast to simply increasing the maximum power level covered by the scale, Carl Sagan suggested adding another dimension: the information available to the civilization. He assigned the letter A to represent 106 unique bits of information (less than any recorded human culture) and each successive letter to represent an order of magnitude increase, so that a level Z civilization would have 1031 bits. In this classification, 1973 Earth is a 0.7 H civilization, with access to 1013 bits of information. Sagan believed that no civilization has yet reached level Z, conjecturing that so much unique information would exceed that of all the intelligent species in a galactic supercluster and observing that the universe is not old enough to effectively exchange information over larger distances. The information and energy axes are not strictly interdependent, so that even a level Z civilization would not need to be Kardashev Type III.[5]

Examples in science fiction

Type I

Type II

Type III

Above Type III / "Type IV"

Connections with sociology and anthropology

Kardashev's theory can be viewed as the expansion of some social theories, especially from social evolutionism. It is close to the theory of Leslie White, author of The Evolution of Culture: The Development of Civilization to the Fall of Rome (1959). White attempted to create a theory explaining the entire history of humanity. The most important factor in his theory is technology: Social systems are determined by technological systems, wrote White in his book, echoing the earlier theory of Lewis Henry Morgan. As measure of society advancement he proposed the measure energy consumption of a given society (thus his theory is known as the energy theory of cultural evolution). He differentiates between five stages of human development. In the first stage, people use energy of their own muscles. In the second stage, they use energy of domesticated animals. In the third stage, they use the energy of plants (which White refers to as agricultural revolution). In the fourth stage, they learn to use the energy of natural resources—such as coal, oil, and gas. Finally, in the fifth stage, they harness nuclear energy. White introduced a formula P=E×T, where P measures the advancement of the culture, E is a measure of energy consumed, and T is the measure of efficiency of technical factors utilizing the energy.

Criticism

It has been argued that, because we cannot understand advanced civilizations, we cannot predict their behavior; thus, Kardashev's visualization may not reflect what will actually occur for an advanced civilization. This central argument is found in the book Evolving the Alien: The Science of Extraterrestrial Life.[27]

Robert Zubrin uses the terms to refer to how widespread a civilization is in space, rather than to its energy use. In other words, a Type I civilization has spread across its planet, a Type II has extensive colonies in its respective stellar system, and a Type III has colonized its galaxy.

See also

References

  1. ^ Zubrin, Robert, 1999, Entering Space — Creating a Spacefaring Civilization
  2. ^ a b c Kardashev, Nikolai (1964). "Transmission of Information by Extraterrestrial Civilizations" (PDF). Soviet Astronomy 8: 217. Bibcode 1964SvA.....8..217K. 
  3. ^ a b c Lemarchand, Guillermo A. Detectability of Extraterrestrial Technological Activities. Coseti. http://www.coseti.org/lemarch1.htm. .
  4. ^ Kaku, Michio (2010). "The Physics of Interstellar Travel: To one day, reach the stars.". http://mkaku.org/home/?page_id=250. Retrieved 2010-08-29. 
  5. ^ a b Sagan, Carl (October 2000) [1973]. Jerome Agel. ed. Cosmic Connection: An Extraterrestrial Perspective. Freeman J. Dyson, David Morrison. Cambridge Press. ISBN 05-21-7830-38. http://books.google.com/?id=lL57o9YB0mAC&pg=PA156. Retrieved 2008-01-01. 
  6. ^ Souers, P. C. (1986). Hydrogen properties for fusion energy. University of California Press. pp. 4. ISBN 978-0520055001. http://books.google.com/?id=I2K6DKA1IMwC&printsec=frontcover. 
  7. ^ "discover.positron.edu.au/fact-or-fiction/solving-the-energy-crisis/". http://discover.positron.edu.au/fact-or-fiction/solving-the-energy-crisis/. 
  8. ^ Borowski, Steve K. (1987-07-29). "Comparison of Fusion/Anti-matter Propulsion Systems for Interplanetary Travel" (PDF). Technical Memorandum 107030. San Diego, California, USA: National Aeronautics and Space Administration. pp. 1–3. http://gltrs.grc.nasa.gov/reports/1996/TM-107030.pdf. Retrieved 2008-01-28. 
  9. ^ By the mass-energy equivalence formula E = mc². See anti-matter as a fuel source for the energy comparisons.
  10. ^ http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/08/110810-antimatter-belt-earth-trapped-pamela-space-science/
  11. ^ Adriani; Barbarino; Bazilevskaya; Bellotti; Boezio; Bogomolov; Bongi; Bonvicini et al. (2011). "The discovery of geomagnetically trapped cosmic ray antiprotons". The Astrophysical Journal 736 (29): L1. arXiv:1107.4882. doi:10.1088/2041-8205/736/1/L1. 
  12. ^ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12158718
  13. ^ Dyson, Freeman J. (1966). "The Search for Extraterrestrial Technology". Perspectives in Modern Physics (New York: John Wiley & Sons). 
  14. ^ Newman, Phil (2001-10-22). "New Energy Source "Wrings" Power from Black Hole Spin". NASA. Archived from the original on 2008-02-09. http://web.archive.org/web/20080209231442/http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20011015blackhole.html. Retrieved 2008-02-19. 
  15. ^ Schutz, Bernard F. (1985). A First Course in General Relativity. New York: Cambridge University Press. pp. 304, 305. ISBN 0521277035. http://books.google.com/?id=qhDFuWbLlgQC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Bernard+Schutz+%22A+First+Course+in+General+Relativity%22. 
  16. ^ Kardashev, Nikolai. "On the Inevitability and the Possible Structures of Supercivilizations", The search for extraterrestrial life: Recent developments; Proceedings of the Symposium, Boston, MA, June 18–21, 1984 (A86-38126 17-88). Dordrecht, D. Reidel Publishing Co., 1985, p. 497–504.
  17. ^ Dyson, Freeman (1960-06-03). "Search for Artificial Stellar Sources of Infrared Radiation". Science (New York: W. A. Benjamin, Inc) 131 (3414): 1667–1668. Bibcode 1960Sci...131.1667D. doi:10.1126/science.131.3414.1667. PMID 17780673. http://www.islandone.org/LEOBiblio/SETI1.HTM. Retrieved 2008-01-30. 
  18. ^ Galantai, Zoltan (September 7, 2003). "Long Futures and Type IV Civilizations" (PDF). http://longfuture.inno.bme.hu/long_futures_article1.pdf. Retrieved 2006-05-26. 
  19. ^ Milan M. Ćirković (February 2004). "Forecast for the Next Eon : Applied Cosmology and the Long-Term Fate of Intelligent Beings". Foundations of Physics (Springer Netherlands) 34 (2): 239–261. arXiv:astro-ph/0211414. Bibcode 2004FoPh...34..239C. doi:10.1023/B:FOOP.0000019583.67831.60. ISSN (Print) 1572-9516 (Online) 0015-9018 (Print) 1572-9516 (Online). 
  20. ^ Kaku, Michio (2005). Parallel Worlds: The Science of Alternative Universes and Our Future in the Cosmos. New York: Doubleday. p. 317. ISBN 0713997281. 
  21. ^ "Afro - Hallawiki". Hallawiki.a.wiki-site.com. http://hallawiki.a.wiki-site.com/index.php/Eelong#Technology. Retrieved 2010-09-19. 
  22. ^ "Star Trek: The Next Generation Relics (TV episode 1992) - IMDb". IMDB. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0708764/. Retrieved 2011-11-21. 
  23. ^ Stapledon, Olaf Last and First Men [ 1931 ] and Star Maker [ 1937 ] New York:1968—Dover Chapters IX through XI Pages 346 to 396
  24. ^ Moorcock, Michael: Tales From the End of Time, page 121. Berkley Publishing, 1976.
  25. ^ Parkin, Lance (2005). The Gallifrey Chronicles. BBC Books. p. 56. ISBN 0-563-48624-4. 
  26. ^ Swirski, Peter (2006). The art and science of Stanislaw Lem. McGill-Queen's Press. p. 147. ISBN 0773530460. 
  27. ^ Jack Cohen and Ian Stewart: Evolving the Alien: The Science of Extraterrestrial Life, Ebury Press, 2002, ISBN 0-09-187927-2

Further reading

External links