Hindcast

A hindcast is a way of testing a mathematical model. Known or closely estimated inputs for past events are entered into the model to see how well the output matches the known results. Hindcasting is also known as backtesting.

An example of hindcasting would be entering climate forcings (events that force change) into a climate model. If the hindcast accurately showed weather events that are known to have occurred, the model would be considered successful.

In oceanography and meteorology, hindcasting usually refers to a numerical model integration of a historical period where no observations have been assimilated. This distinguishes a hindcast run from a reanalysis. Oceanographic observations of salinity and temperature as well as observations of surface wave parameters such as the significant wave height are much scarcer than meteorological observations, making hindcasting more common in oceanography than in meteorology. Also, since surface waves represent a forced system where the wind is the only generating force, wave hindcasting is often considered adequate for generating a reasonable representation of the wave climate with litte need for a full reanalysis.

The ECMWF re-analysis is an example of a combined atmospheric reanalysis coupled with a wave model integration where no wave parameters were assimilated, making the wave part a hindcast run.

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