Earned run average

In baseball statistics, earned run average (ERA) is the mean of earned runs given up by a pitcher per nine innings pitched. It is determined by dividing the number of earned runs allowed by the number of innings pitched and multiplying by nine. Runs resulting from defensive errors (including pitchers' defensive errors) are recorded as unearned runs and are not used to determine ERA.

Contents

Origins

\mathrm{ERA} = 9 \times \frac{\mathrm{Earned~Runs~Allowed}}{\mathrm{Innings~Pitched}}

Henry Chadwick is credited with first devising the statistic, which caught on as a measure of pitching effectiveness after relief pitching came into vogue in the 1900s. Prior to 1900 – and, in fact, for many years afterward – pitchers were routinely expected to pitch a complete game, and their win-loss record was considered sufficient in determining their effectiveness.

Some means had to be found to calculate the apportionment of earned-run responsibility where multiple pitchers assume responsibility in a single game since pitchers have sole responsibility to put opposing batters out. A pitcher is assessed an earned run for each earned run scored by a batter (or pinch-runner) who reached base while batting against that pitcher. After pitchers like James Otis Crandall and Charlie Hall made names for themselves as relief specialists, gauging a pitcher's effectiveness became more difficult using the traditional method of tabulating wins and losses. The National League first kept official earned run average statistics in 1912 (the statistic was called "Heydler's statistic" for a while, after then-NL secretary John Heydler), with the American League following suit afterward.

Modern-day baseball encyclopedias notate ERAs for earlier years, but these were computed many years after the actual accomplishments. Negro League pitchers are often rated by RA, or total runs allowed, since the statistics available for Negro League games did not always distinguish between earned and unearned runs.

ERA in different decades and baseball eras

As with batting average, the definition of a "good" ERA varies from year to year. During the dead-ball era of the 1900s and 1910s, an ERA below 2.00 (two earned runs allowed per nine innings) was considered good. In the late 1920s and 1930s, when conditions of the game changed in a way that strongly favored hitters, a good ERA was below 4.00; only the highest caliber pitchers, for example Dazzy Vance or Lefty Grove, would consistently post an ERA under 3.00 during these years. In the 1960s, sub-2.00 ERAs returned, as other influences such as ballparks with different dimensions were introduced. Today, an ERA under 4.00 is again considered good, with pitchers such as Greg Maddux and Pedro Martínez achieving this mark.

The all-time single-season record for lowest ERA is 0.86, set by Tim Keefe in 1880. The modern record is 0.96, set by Dutch Leonard in 1914. The lowest single-season ERA of a pitcher since 1950 is 1.12, achieved by Bob Gibson in 1968. The career record is 1.82, held by Ed Walsh, who played from 1904 through 1917. The active player with the lowest career ERA (among those with more than 1,000 innings pitched) is Mariano Rivera, with an ERA of 2.21 through the 2011 Major League Baseball season.

Some sources may list players with infinite ERAs. This can happen if a pitcher allows one or more earned runs without retiring a batter (usually in a single appearance). Additionally, an undefined ERA occasionally occurs at the beginning of a baseball season. It is sometimes incorrectly displayed as zero or as the lowest ranking ERA, even though it is more akin to the highest.

Other external factors

Starters and relievers

It can be very misleading to judge relief pitchers solely on ERA, because they are charged only for runs scored by batters who reached base while batting against them. Thus, if a relief pitcher enters the game with his team leading by 1 run, with 2 outs and the bases loaded, and then gives up a single which scores 2 runs, he is not charged with those runs. If he retires the next batter (and pitches no more innings), his ERA for that game will be 0.00 despite having surrendered the lead. (He is likely recorded with a blown save in this situation.) Starting pitchers operate under the same rules but are not called upon to start pitching with runners already on base. In addition, relief pitchers know beforehand that they will only be pitching for a relatively short while, allowing them to throw each pitch with maximum energy, unlike starters who typically need to keep something in reserve in case they are asked to pitch 7 or more innings. This freedom to use their maximum energy for a few innings, or even for just a few batters, helps relievers keep their ERAs down.

ERA, taken by itself, can also be misleading when trying to objectively judge starting pitchers, though not to the extent seen with relief pitchers. The advent of the designated hitter rule in the American League in 1973 made the pitching environment significantly different. Since then, pitchers spending all or most of their careers in the AL have been at a disadvantage in maintaining low ERAs, compared to National League pitchers who can often get an easy out when pitching to the opposition's pitcher, who is usually not a very good batter. Since 1997, when teams began playing teams from the other league during the regular season, the DH rule is in effect only when such interleague games are played in an American League park.

DH rule

This difference between the leagues (the DH) also affects relievers, but not to the same degree, as National League relievers actually pitch to pitchers far less than do AL starters for a number of reasons, chiefly because relievers are usually active in later innings when pinch hitters tend to be used in the pitcher's batting spot.

Location

ERA is also affected somewhat by the ballpark in which a pitcher's team plays half its games, as well as the tendency of hometown official scorers to assign errors instead of base hits in plays that could be either.

As an extreme example, pitchers for the Colorado Rockies have historically faced many problems, all damaging to their ERAs. The combination of high altitude (5,280 ft or 1,610 m) and a semi-arid climate in Denver causes fly balls to travel up to 10% farther than at sea level. Denver's altitude and low humidity also reduce the ability of pitchers to throw effective breaking balls, due to both reduced air resistance and difficulty in gripping very dry baseballs. These conditions have been countered to some extent since 2002 by the team's use of humidors to store baseballs before games. These difficult circumstances for Rockies pitchers may not adversely affect their won-lost records, since opposing pitchers must deal with the same problems. Indeed, hometown hurlers have some advantage in any given game since they are physically acclimated to the altitude and often develop techniques to mitigate the challenges of this ballpark. Still, conditions there tend to inflate Rockies' ERAs relative to the rest of the league.

Sabermetric treatment of ERA

In modern baseball, sabermetrics uses several defense independent pitching statistics including a Defense-Independent ERA in an attempt to measure a pitcher's ability regardless of factors outside his control. Further, because of the dependence of ERA on factors over which a pitcher has little control, forecasting future ERAs on the basis of the past ERAs of a given pitcher is not very reliable and can be improved if analysts rely on other performance indicators such as strike out rates and walk rates. For example, this is the premise of Nate Silver's forecasts of ERAs using his PECOTA system.[1] Silver also developed a "quick" earned run average (QuikERA or QERA) to calculate an ERA from peripheral statistics including strikeouts, walks, and groundball percentage. Unlike peripheral ERA OR PERA, it does not take into account park effects.[2] Another statistic derived from ERA is Adjusted ERA, also called ERA+, which adjusts a pitcher's ERA to a scale where 100 is average for the league and takes into account the various dimensions and other factors of each ballpark.

All-time career leaders

Rank ERA Player Team(s) Year(s)
1 1.82 Ed Walsh Chicago (AL), Boston (NL) 1904–17
2 1.89 Addie Joss Cleveland (AL) 1902–10
3 1.89 Jim Devlin Chicago (NA), Louisville (NL) 1875–77
4 2.02 Jack Pfiester Pittsburgh (NL), Chicago (NL) 1903–04, 1906–11
5 2.03 Smoky Joe Wood Boston (AL), Cleveland (AL) 1908–15, 1917–22

Career leaders in the live-ball era (post-1920)

Because of rules changes post-1920, most notably the abolition of the spitball and frequent replacement of soiled or scuffed baseballs, the increased importance of the home run (largely due to Babe Ruth), and the American League's adoption of the designated hitter rule, ERAs have been noticeably higher than in the early decades of the sport.

The players listed here played their entire careers after 1920. Note that only one of the top five in this list, Whitey Ford, was exclusively a starting pitcher. Hoyt Wilhelm spent considerable time both as a starter and reliever, while the other three are all closers.

Rank ERA Player Team(s) Year(s)
1 2.21 Mariano Rivera New York (AL) 1995–
2 2.31 Billy Wagner Atlanta, Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox 1995–2010
3 2.52 Hoyt Wilhelm New York (NL), St. Louis, Cleveland, Baltimore, Chicago (AL), Los Angeles (Anaheim), Atlanta, Chicago (NL), Los Angeles (NL) 1952–72
4 2.75 Whitey Ford New York Yankees (AL) 1950–67
5 2.76 Dan Quisenberry Kansas City, St. Louis, San Francisco 1979–90

See also

References

  1. ^ Schwarz, Alan (August 22, 2004). "Numbers Suggest Mets Are Gambling on Zambrano". The New York Times (New York City). http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/22/sports/baseball/22score.html. Retrieved July 19, 2011. 
  2. ^ Silver, Nate (September 27, 2006). "Lies,Damned Lies: Playoff Hurlers". Baseball Prospectus. Prospectus Entertainment Ventures. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5560. Retrieved July 19, 2011. 
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