An anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) is a military quasiballistic missile system currently in developement, of medium or intermediate range, designed to hit a warship at sea. Because of speeds typically reaching Mach 10 there are currently no ship-board defense mechanisms that could counter an ASBM in the terminal phase.[1]
ASBM are equipped with a conventional warhead large enough, together with the kinetic energy, that a single hit has the potential to cripple or outright destroy a supercarrier, but unlike nuclear weapons have to hit the target precisely to be effective. Thus, and unlike a typical ballistic missile, which follows a ballistic flightpath after the relatively brief initial powered phase of flight, an ASBM would require a precise and high-performance terminal guidance system.
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China has reportedly developed and tested the world's first anti-ship ballistic missile called DF-21D, with a maximum range of around 3,000 kilometres (1,900 mi), in 2005, according to the US Department of Defense. It is estimated to have reached initial operating capability in 2007 or 2008. The guidance system is thought to be still in an evolutionary process as more UAV and satellites are added.[2] The DF-21 anti-ship ballistic missile itself is assumed to have entered active service by 2009.[3][4]
China is reported to be working on an Over-the-horizon radar to locate the targets for the ASBM.[5]
The United States Navy has responded by switching its focus from a close blockade force of shallow water vessels to return to building deep water ballistic defense destroyers.[6] The United States has also assigned most of its ballistic missile defense capable ships to the Pacific, extended the BMD program to all Aegis destroyers and increased procurement of SM-3 BMD missiles.[7] The United States also has a large network optimized for tracking ballistic missile launches which may give carrier groups sufficient warning in order to move away from the target area while the missile is in flight.[8]
Marshall Hoyler writes that the Chinese should be able to overwhelm the American Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System simply because it is cheaper for them to add additional ASBM (and decoys) inside their own country than it is for the United States to have additional forward deployed SM-3s in Arleigh Burke class destroyers standing ready in the Western Pacific.[9] This is especially true if as John E. Pike suggests, multiple interceptors may be required to ensure a kill on every incoming ASBM.[10]
Use of such missile has been said by some experts to potentially lead to nuclear exchange, regional arms races with India and Japan, and the end of the INF Treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union, which the Peoples Republic of China is not a party of.[11][12]
In February 2011, Iran demonstrated a short-range anti-ship ballistic missile named Khalij Fars ( English: Persian Gulf ), a missile based on the Fateh-110 which successfully hit a stationary target vessel. It has been reported as a short ranged ballistic missile, and is based on the Dongfeng 11 missile with a range of 250-300 km.[13]
Admiral Gary Roughead has said that America's few land bases in the Pacific are far more vulnerable to Chinese ballistic missiles because unlike the aircraft carriers they can't evade.[14]