2007 Pacific hurricane season

2007 Pacific hurricane season
Season summary map
First storm formed May 26, 2007
Last storm dissipated October 23, 2007
Strongest storm Flossie – 940 mbar (hPa) (27.77 inHg), 140 mph (220 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Total depressions 15
Total storms 11
Hurricanes 4
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+) 1
Total fatalities 39 total
Total damage $80 million (2007 USD)
Pacific hurricane seasons
2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009

The 2007 Pacific hurricane season was an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. It officially started on May 15, 2007 in the eastern Pacific, designated as the area east of 140°W, and on June 1, 2007 in the central Pacific, which is between the International Date Line and 140°W, and lasted until November 30, 2007. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Pacific basin.

The season began slowly; through the end of July, the seasonal ACE was the third lowest since the geostationary satellite era began in 1966.[1] The inactivity continued through the next month, which was the third quietest August in terms of ACE since reliable records began in the basin in 1971.[2] Tropical Storm Barbara in June caused $55 million (2007 USD) in crop damage in southeastern Mexico from heavy precipitation. In August, Hurricane Flossie formed in the Eastern Pacific and crossed into the Central Pacific, threatening Hawaii but causing little damage. In early September, Hurricane Henriette dropped heavy rainfall in southwest Mexico, which caused nine fatalities and $25 million (2007 USD) in damage.

Contents

Seasonal forecasts

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2007 season
for the Eastern North Pacific
Source Date Named
storms		 Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
NOAA Average[3] 15.3 8.8 4.2
NOAA 22 May 2007 12 – 16 6 – 9 2 – 4
Actual activity 11 4 1

On May 22, 2007, NOAA released their forecast for the 2007 Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific hurricane seasons. They predicted a below-normal level of activity in the Eastern Pacific, with 12 to 16 named storms, of which 6 to 9 were expected to become hurricanes, and 2 to 4 expected to become major hurricanes.[4]

The Central Pacific basin was also expected to be below average, with only two to three tropical cyclones expected to form or cross into the area.[5]

Storms

See also: Timeline of the 2007 Pacific hurricane season

Tropical Storm Alvin

Tropical storm (SSHS)
Duration May 27 – May 31
Intensity 40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min),  1003 mbar (hPa)

A nearly stationary low pressure area developed about 550 miles (890 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico on May 24.[6] Upper-level winds favored development, and the system slowly became better organized.[7] By early on May 26, the system had developed a well-defined circulation, though associated convection had become limited.[8] Later that day convection increased significantly over the center, and early on May 27 Tropical Depression One-E formed 345 mi (555 km) south of the tip of Baja California.[9] Located to the east of a ridge and to the west of a trough, the depression tracked slowly westward through an area of weak steering flow.[10]

Due to unfavorable thermodynamics of the environment, the depression failed to immediately strengthen; the convection weakened, leaving the center located well to the northeast of the poorly organized convective areas.[11] Inflow from the south was cut off by another area of disturbed weather to its southeast, and by late on May 27 one forecaster indicated there was inadequate convection to qualify the system as a tropical depression, although advisories continued since it was expected to strengthen again.[12] Convection again re-developed early on May 28,[13] and by later in the day remained vigorous but limited to the southwestern quadrant of the circulation.[14] It consolidated further and strengthened into a tropical storm early on May 29.[15] By later in the day, the convection again diminished, and the center of Alvin became difficult to locate on satellite imagery.[16] Alvin was thus downgraded to a tropical depression after becoming less organised on May 30.[17] On May 31, Alvin lost all deep convection.[18] Tropical Depression Alvin degenerated into a remnant low on June 1.[9]

Tropical Storm Barbara

Tropical storm (SSHS)
Duration May 29 – June 2
Intensity 50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min),  1000 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Tropical Storm Barbara (2007)

On May 27, an area of disorganized convection extended southwestward from the Gulf of Tehuantepec.[19] On May 28, a small low pressure area developed within the system,[20] and it gradually became better organized as it drifted northward. Banding features developed in the eastern semicircle as the circulation became better defined, and late on May 29 the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Depression Two-E while it was located about 235 miles (378 km) southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Upon becoming a tropical cyclone, the depression was stationary in an area with warm sea surface temperatures, very light wind shear, and favorable upper-level conditions.[21]

It became more organised on satellite imagery on May 30, and was upgraded to a tropical storm, marking only the third time that there had been two named storms in May, after 1956 and 1984.[22] It tracked slowly southeastward for the first few days, before losing much of its organisation overnight on May 31, leading to a forecast that Barbara could dissipate later that day.[23] It managed to re-consolidate, however, and regained tropical storm intensity on June 1, when tropical storm watches were put into place. Barbara made landfall near the Mexico-Guatemala border on June 2. Heavy rainfall from the storm caused about $55 million (2007 USD) in crop damage in southeastern Mexico.[24]

Tropical Depression Three-E

Tropical depression (SSHS)
Duration June 11 – June 12
Intensity 35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min),  1004 mbar (hPa)

On the evening of June 9, the National Hurricane Center first mentioned the existence of a large, disorganized area of low pressure, which was located a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, with limited shower activity.[25] The associated thunderstorms gained organization overnight, and on June 10 the National Hurricane Center first mentioned the possibility of some slow development of the system.[26] Environmental conditions were favorable for tropical cyclone formation, but the system changed little in organization.[27] The disturbance finally consolidated and became a tropical depression, the third of the season, on June 11, about 465 miles (748 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.[28] However, the depression soon entered an environment of stable air and cooler sea surface temperatures and gradually weakened over the next two days. The National Hurricane Center issued its last advisory early on June 13 after the system lost most of its convection.

Tropical Depression Four-E

Tropical depression (SSHS)
Duration July 9 – July 11
Intensity 35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min),  1006 mbar (hPa)

On July 9, an area of convection developed about 725 miles (1,167 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico; conditions favored slow development,[29] and it slowly became better organized as it tracked steadily westward.[30] A well-defined low pressure area developed within the system, and at 2100 UTC on July 9 the National Hurricane Center classified it as Tropical Depression Four-E after deep convection was maintained near its low-level circulation. Upon becoming a tropical cyclone, the depression was poorly organized,[31] and by early on July 10 the convection greatly diminished near the ill-defined center of circulation.[32] Later that day, deep convection redeveloped despite detrimental atmospheric and oceanic conditions,[33] though convection again deteriorated later while the winds decreased.[34] After continued weakening the National Hurricane Center issued the final advisory on the system early on July 11.[35]

Tropical Depression Five-E

Tropical depression (SSHS)
Duration July 14 – July 15
Intensity 35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min),  1006 mbar (hPa)

Early on July 11, just as Tropical Depression Four-E had degenerated into a remnant low, an area of disturbed weather formed around 350 miles (560 km) south of Acapulco. The National Hurricane Center noted that there was potential for further development,[36] but conditions were not favorable for development in the short-term, and the disturbance remained poorly consolidated.[37] However, deep convection became more concentrated on July 12,[38] and on July 14 Dvorak technique classifications on the disturbance reached high-end tropical depression to low-end tropical storm strength. Based on this, the National Hurricane Center upgraded it to Tropical Depression Five-E at 1500 UTC.[39] The depression moved west-northwestward and quickly encountered cool sea surface temperatures, increasing wind shear, and outflow from Tropical Storm Cosme. The NHC issued its last advisory late on July 15 after the circulation had become ill-defined and the depression had lost most of its deep convection.[40]

Hurricane Cosme

Category 1 hurricane (SSHS)
Duration July 14 – July 22
Intensity 75 mph (120 km/h) (1-min),  987 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Hurricane Cosme (2007)

Two hours after Tropical Depression Five-E was classified, a disturbed area of weather about halfway between Mexico and the Hawaiian islands acquired a surface circulation and sufficient deep convection for the National Hurricane Center to designate it as a tropical depression.[41] Gradually, the depression became more organized and its circulation became better defined. The National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Cosme on July 15 after analysis with the Dvorak technique estimated that the system had tropical storm force winds.[42]

On July 16 it strengthened to become the first hurricane of the season,[43] but shortly after that cooler waters and shearing winds initiated a rapid weakening. However, convection made a comeback and Cosme held on to minimal tropical storm strength for over a day, before finally weakening to a depression as it crossed into the Central Pacific. Cosme continued on a west-northwesterly track, moving closer to the Big Island of Hawaii. It passed about 185 miles (298 km) south of the Big Island on July 21 local time, bringing gusts of 35 to 40 mph (55 to 65 km/h) and heavy rain.[44]

The final advisory was issued on the evening of July 22 local time as the depression started to dissipate.

Tropical Storm Dalila

Tropical storm (SSHS)
Duration July 22 – July 27
Intensity 60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min),  995 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Tropical Storm Dalila (2007)

An area of disturbed weather was first noticed a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the morning of July 20. The National Hurricane Center noted the possibility of some slow development of the system over the following 48 hours.[45] 24 hours later, the circulation of the disturbance started to become more consolidated and better defined, leading the NHC to declare the possibility of the formation of a tropical depression.[46] Late on July 21, the National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Seven-E.[47]

Convection began to flare on the morning of July 23 despite moderate wind shear, and the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Dalila, the fourth tropical storm of the season.[48] Under constant vertical shear,[49] Dalila remained a weak tropical storm during the following days. Dalila started to strengthen during the afternoon of July 24 and reached its peak strength as a moderate tropical storm.[50] Over the next three days, Dalila entered water with sea surface temperatures too cool to support tropical cyclone activity and it ultimately weakened into a tropical depression.[51][52] The final advisory was issued during the morning hours of July 27 as Dalila started degenerating into a remnant low.[53]

Tropical Storm Erick

Tropical storm (SSHS)
Duration July 31 – August 2
Intensity 40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min),  1004 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Tropical Storm Erick (2007)

On July 28, a westward moving area of disturbed weather developed about 950 miles (1,530 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.[54] A broad low pressure area formed on July 29,[55] and initially moderate wind shear prevented significant development.[56] On the morning of July 31, a burst of convection developed in association with a low pressure area.[57] The convection persisted and the first advisory on Tropical Depression Eight-E was issued later that afternoon.[58] Early on August 1, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Erick based on Dvorak estimates of tropical storm status.[59] Continued high amounts of wind shear prevented further strengthening,[60] and the system dissipated on August 2.

Hurricane Flossie

Category 4 hurricane (SSHS)
Duration August 8 – August 16
Intensity 140 mph (220 km/h) (1-min),  949 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Hurricane Flossie (2007)

An area of disturbed weather formed about 600 miles (970 km) south-southeast of Acapulco on August 2. Shower and thunderstorm activity increased in association with a small low pressure area on August 5,[61] and after continued organization, the National Hurricane Center remarked the system could develop into a tropical depression by early the next day.[62] Subsequent to another reduction in convection, thunderstorm activity again increased.[63] Despite marginal upper-level conditions, the system acquired a sufficient amount of organized deep convection for it to be classified Tropical Depression Nine-E late on August 8 while located about 1,260 miles (2,030 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

Upon first being classified, the depression maintained two ragged hooking bands; situated to the south of a mid-level ridge, it tracked steadily westward.[64] Later that day the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Flossie.[65] The storm began to develop an eye late on August 9 with good cirrus outflow in all quadrants.[66] On August 10 the eye became much better defined as the storm strengthened and was upgraded to a hurricane.[67][68] Hurricane Flossie underwent rapid intensification overnight and became a major hurricane on the morning of August 11[69] shortly before crossing into the Central Pacific.

In the Central Pacific, the storm continued to track westwards, moving closer to the Hawaiian islands.[70][71] On the afternoon of August 11 Flossie's wind speeds reached an initial peak of 140 mph (220 km/h),[72] but heading into August 12 increasing vertical shear began restricting outflow and the storm weakened slightly.[73] By that night outflow had been restored and the storm did not lose intensity as predicted,[74] and the CPHC issued a hurricane watch the next morning for the Big Island.

However, as the storm moved closer to the Big Island on August 13, the shear began to take a toll on the storm, and it weakened to a low-end Category 3 hurricane by late in the day local time, with further weakening expected before it approached the Big Island.[75] Late on August 14 it was downgraded to a tropical storm as it veered to the south of the Big Island,[76] and on August 16 it degenerated to a tropical depression.[77]

Tropical Storm Gil

Tropical storm (SSHS)
Duration August 29 – September 2
Intensity 45 mph (75 km/h) (1-min),  1001 mbar (hPa)

Early on August 29, an area of disturbed weather west of Manzanillo, Colima, Mexico, was designated Tropical Depression Ten-E.[78] That afternoon, it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Gil, the seventh tropical storm of the season. [79] Gil soon weakened as it encountered shearing winds and stable air layering, and it dissipated on September 2 as it moved over cooler waters.

One fatality was reported on August 29, when a 14-year-old boy was swept away by a flood-swollen river in Culiacán, Sinaloa, as parts of the town were flooded by up to 4.9 ft (1.5 m).[80]

Hurricane Henriette

Category 1 hurricane (SSHS)
Duration August 30 – September 6
Intensity 85 mph (140 km/h) (1-min),  972 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Hurricane Henriette (2007)

An area of disturbed weather 400 kilometres (250 mi) southeast of Acapulco, Mexico was designated Tropical Depression Eleven-E on August 30.[81] The next day it strengthened to become Tropical Storm Henriette,[82] as it moved parallel to the Mexican coast bringing heavy rains. It continued to strengthen as it moved away from Jalisco towards Baja California, and reached hurricane strength on September 4.

Hurricane Henriette made landfall on the tip of the Baja California peninsula near San José del Cabo on September 4.[83] It was over land for only about six hours before emeging into the Sea of Cortez, still at hurricane strength.[84] The next day it made final landfall near Guaymas in the state of Sonora.[85]

Rock and mudfalls caused by the heavy rainfall in the Acapulco area caused seven deaths. In Baja California Sur, the threat of the hurricane prompted the evacuations of about 300 people.[86] Two fishermen were reported killed off the Sonora coast.[87] Damage in Mexico totaled about $275 million (2007 MXN, $25 million 2007 USD).[88]

Hurricane Ivo

Category 1 hurricane (SSHS)
Duration September 18 – September 23
Intensity 80 mph (130 km/h) (1-min),  984 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Hurricane Ivo (2007)

On September 18, Tropical Depression Twelve-E formed about 670 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Later the same day it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Ivo, and it reached hurricane strength the next day. It weakened as it curved towards the southern Baja California Peninsula, causing a tropical storm watch that was issued for part of the southern tip on September 22 to be canceled on September 23 as it was downgraded to a tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E

Tropical depression (SSHS)
Duration September 19 – September 20
Intensity 35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min),  1007 mbar (hPa)

On September 19, an area of disturbed weather southwest of the southern tip of Baja California acquired enough organization to be classified as a tropical depression.[89] Faced with low surface temperatures and stable air it could not strengthen further, and it dissipated the next day.

Tropical Storm Juliette

Tropical storm (SSHS)
Duration September 29 – October 2
Intensity 60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min),  997 mbar (hPa)

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E formed from a low-pressure west-southwest of Manzanillo on September 29. It strengthened to Tropical Storm Juliette later the same day. It peaked at 60 mph (85 km/h) on September 30 before weakening due to increased shear. Juliette dissipated early on October 2, never threatening land.

Tropical Storm Kiko

Tropical storm (SSHS)
Duration October 15 – October 23
Intensity 70 mph (110 km/h) (1-min),  991 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Tropical Storm Kiko (2007)

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E formed from a low-pressure area about 400 miles southwest of Manzanillo on October 15. It briefly strengthened to Tropical Storm Kiko the next day while its center remained almost stationary, but soon weakened again under the influence of shearing winds. On October 17 it was once more upgraded to a tropical storm and began to move east or northeast towards mainland Mexico, causing storm warnings to be issued. On October 19 it turned to the northwest parallel to the Mexican coast and commenced strengthening, peaking just below hurricane strength on October 21. Thereafter it weakened as it moved westward, dissipating on October 23.

As Kiko traveled parallel to the coast, heavy rain affected the region for two days.[90][91] In Kiko's rough seas off the coast of Mexico, a ship capsized with twenty-five passengers and crew.[92]

Storm names

The following names were used for named storms that formed in the northeast Pacific in 2007. This is the same list that was used in the 2001 season, except for Alvin, which replaced Adolph, which was retired due to political sensitivities. The name Alvin was used for a storm for the first time this year.

  • Ivo
  • Juliette
  • Kiko
  • Lorena (unused)
  • Manuel (unused)
  • Narda (unused)
  • Octave (unused)
  • Priscilla (unused)
  • Raymond (unused)
  • Sonia (unused)
  • Tico (unused)
  • Velma (unused)
  • Wallis (unused)
  • Xina (unused)
  • York (unused)
  • Zelda (unused)

For the central Pacific Ocean, four consecutive lists are used, with the names used sequentially until exhausted, rather than until the end of the year, due to the low number of storms each year. No central pacific names were used; the next one used would have been Kika.

No names were retired for the 2007 Pacific hurricane season. The same list of names will be reused in the 2013 Pacific hurricane season.

Season impact

This is a table of the storms in 2007 and their landfall(s), if any. Deaths in parentheses are indirect; an example of such would be a traffic accident, but still storm-related. Damage and death totals include times when the storm was an extratropical storm or precursor wave.

Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2007 Pacific hurricane statistics
Storm
name		 Dates active Storm category

at peak intensity

 Max
wind

(mph)

 Min.
press.
(mbar)		 Landfall(s) Damage
(millions
USD)		 Deaths
Where When Wind

(mph)
Alvin May 27 – May 31 Tropical storm 40 1003 none none 0 
Barbara May 29 – June 2 Tropical storm 50 1000 Southern Chiapas, Mexico June 2 50 55  4 
Three-E June 11 – June 12 Tropical depression 35 1005 none none  0 
Four-E July 9 – July 11 Tropical depression 35 1006 none none  0 
Five-E July 14 – July 15 Tropical depression 35 1006 none none  0 
Cosme July 14 – July 22 Category 1 hurricane 75 987 none minimal  0 
Dalila July 22 – July 27 Tropical storm 60 995 none none  11 
Erick July 31 – August 2 Tropical storm 40 1004 none none  0 
Flossie August 8 – August 16 Category 4 hurricane 140 949 none none  0 
Gil August 29 – September 2 Tropical storm 45 1001 none none  0 
Henriette August 30 – September 6 Category 1 hurricane 85 972 Colima, Mexico (Direct hit, no landfall) September 2 60 25  9 
Cabo San Lucas, Mexico September 4 80
Guaymas, Mexico September 5 75
Ivo September 18 – September 23 Category 1 hurricane 80 984 none none  0 
Thirteen-E September 19 – September 20 Tropical depression 35 1007 none none  0 
Juliette September 29 – October 2 Tropical storm 60 997 none none  0 
Kiko October 15 – October 23 Tropical storm 70 991 none none  15 
Season Aggregates
15 cyclones May 27 – October 23   140 949 3 landfalls 80 39

See also

References

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  2. ^ Blake & Mainelli (2007). "August Monthly Tropical Weather Summary". National Hurricane Center. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/tws/MIATWSEP_aug.shtml?. Retrieved 2007-09-01. 
  3. ^ Climate Prediction Center, NOAA (2006-05-22). "Background Information: East Pacific Hurricane Season". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on 2009-05-18. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/background_information.html. Retrieved 2007-05-22. 
  4. ^ Climate Prediction Center, NOAA (2007-05-22). "NOAA: 2007 Tropical Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Outlook". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on 2009-06-11. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/Epac_hurricane.html. Retrieved 2007-05-22. 
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