An unidentified flying object (commonly abbreviated UFO) is a popular term for real or imagined aerial phenomena that are not readily identified. Research by military and civilian groups shows that after investigation UFOs are generally identified either directly or by applying Occam's Razor. [1] Therefore some, such as the USAF, who originally invented the term in 1952, define UFOs as only those objects remaining unidentified after scrutiny by expert investigators, while other definitions call something a UFO from the time it is first reported as being unidentified.
In addition, the term UFO is also often used as a synonym for alien spacecraft in popular culture, though an anomaly may be classified as a UFO independently of opinion as to its origins. Because of the confusion of meanings that have become associated with UFO, some investigators instead prefer to use the broader term Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (or UAP). [2]
All studies agree that only a tiny percentage of reported UFOs are actual hoaxes. [3] The vast majority of reports are of something real, perhaps appearing anomalous, but most of these represent honest misidentifications of conventional objects such as aircraft, balloons, or astronomical objects such as meteors or bright planets.
Modern reports and the first official investigations of UFOs began during World War II with sightings of so-called foo fighters by Allied airplane crews, and in 1946 with widespread sightings of European "ghost rockets". UFO reports became even more common after the first widely publicized United States UFO sighting, by private pilot Kenneth Arnold in mid 1947 (which gave rise to the popular terms "flying saucer" and "flying disc"). Millions of people believe they have seen UFOs since then [4] and tens of thousands of such reports have been cataloged. [5]
Unexplained aerial observations have been reported throughout history. Some were undoubtedly astronomical in nature: comets, bright meteors, one or more of the five planets which can be seen with the naked eye, planetary conjunctions, or atmospheric optical phenomena such as parhelia and lenticular clouds. An example is Halley's Comet, which was recorded first by Chinese astronomers in 240 B.C. and possibly as early as 467 B.C.
Other historical reports seem to defy prosaic explanation, but assessing such accounts is difficult. Whatever their actual cause, such sightings throughout history were often treated as supernatural portents, angels, or other religious omens. Journalist Daniela Giordano says many Medieval-era depictions of unusual aerial objects are difficult to interpret, but argues some that depict airborne saucers and domed-saucer shapes are often strikingly similar to UFO reports from later centuries.[6]Art historians, however, explain those objects as religious symbols, often represented in many other paintings of Middle-Age and Renaissance.[7]
Shen Kuo (1031–1095), a Song Chinese government scholar-official and prolific polymath inventor and scholar, wrote a vivid passage in his Dream Pool Essays (1088) about an unidentified flying object. He recorded the testimony of eyewitnesses in 11th century Anhui and Jiangsu (especially in the city of Yangzhou), who stated that a flying object with opening doors would shine a blinding light from its interior (from an object shaped like a pearl) that would cast shadows from trees for ten miles in radius, and was able to take off at tremendous speeds.[8]
Before the terms "flying saucer" and "UFO" were coined in the late 1940s, there were a number of reports of unidentified aerial phenomena in the West. These reports date from the mid-nineteenth to early twentieth century. They include:
The post World War II UFO phase in the United States began with a famous sighting by American businessman Kenneth Arnold on June 24, 1947 while flying his private plane near Mount Rainier, Washington. He reported seeing nine brilliantly bright objects flying across the face of Rainier towards nearby Mount Adams at "an incredible speed", which he "calculated" as at least 1200 miles per hour by timing their travel between Rainier and Adams.
Although there were other 1947 U.S. sightings of similar objects that preceded this, it was Arnold's sighting that first received significant media attention and captured the public's imagination. Arnold described what he saw as being "flat like a pie pan", "shaped like saucers and were so thin I could barely see them...", "half-moon shaped, oval in front and convex in the rear. ...they looked like a big flat disk" (see Arnold's drawing at right), and flew "like a saucer would if you skipped it across the water". (One of the objects, however, he would describe later as being almost crescent-shaped, as shown in illustration at left.) Arnold’s descriptions were widely reported and within a few days gave rise to the terms flying saucer and flying disk.[11] Arnold’s sighting was followed in the next few weeks by hundreds of other reported sightings, mostly in the U.S., but in other countries as well.
After reports of the Arnold sighting hit the media, other cases began to be reported in increasing numbers. In one instance a United Airlines crew sighting of nine more disc-like objects over Idaho on the evening of July 4. At the time, this sighting was even more widely reported than Arnold’s and lent considerable credence to Arnold’s report.
American UFO researcher Ted Bloecher, in his comprehensive review of newspaper reports (including cases that preceded Arnold's), found a sudden surge upwards in sightings on July 4, peaking on July 6–8. Bloecher noted that for the next few days most American newspapers were filled with front-page stories of the new "flying saucers" or "flying discs". Reports began to rapidly tail off after July 8 [12], when officials began issuing press statements on the Roswell UFO incident, in which they explained the debris as being that of a weather balloon. [13]
Over several years in the 1960s, Bloecher (aided by physicist James E. McDonald) discovered 853 flying disc sightings that year from 140 newspapers from Canada, Washington D.C, and every U.S. state except Montana. [14]
It has been estimated from various studies (such as those cited below) that 50-90% of all reported UFO sightings are eventually identified, while 10-20% remain unidentified (the rest being "garbage cases" listed as having "insufficient information" to enable classification). Various studies (such as the U.S. Air Force's Project Blue Book) have also shown that only a small percentage of UFO reports are deliberate hoaxes (typically less than 1%). Instead, the vast majority are honest misidentifications of natural or man-made phenomena.
The following are some major scientific studies undertaken during the past 50 years regarding UFOs:
In contrast, much more conservative numbers for the percentage of UFOs were arrived at individually by astronomer Allan Hendry, who was the chief investigator for the Center for UFO Studies (CUFOS). CUFOS was founded by astronomer Dr. Allen Hynek (who had been a consultant for the Air Force’s Project Blue Book) to provide a serious scientific investigation into UFOs. Hendry spent 15 months personally investigating 1,307 UFO reports.
In 1979, Hendry published his conclusions in The UFO Handbook: A Guide to Investigating, Evaluating, and Reporting UFO Sightings. Hendry admitted that he would like to find evidence for extraterrestrials but noted that the vast majority of cases had prosaic explanations. He deemed 89% IFOs and only 9% unidentified. If only “hardcore” cases -- well-documented events which defied any conceivable conventional explanation -- the figure for UFOs dropped to only 1.5%.
One possible reason for Hendry's more conservative results might be that he was operating from a very different set of data. Hendry examined almost exclusively civilian reports, mostly from inexperienced witnesses. In contrast, government studies, such as the U.S. Project Blue Book or the French GEPAN/SEPRA, or the civilian NICAP study, contained large numbers of civilian and military pilot sightings and other military sightings, usually considered to be higher evidentiary cases because of the greater experience of the witnesses and the presence of corroborating data such as radar.
As an example of the difference, military personnel made up only 1% of Hendry's witnesses, but 38% of the Battelle / Air Force study. The military witnesses also contributed a much higher percentage of “excellent” or “good” cases (58% for the military vs. only 33% for the civilian cases), which were more likely to be judged unknowns in the Battelle study. Overall, 29% of military cases were judged as unknowns vs. 17% for civilian cases.
Because the results for the Battelle BBSR study and Hendry’s CUFOS study are readily available and contain many statistical breakdowns of cases, they will be contrasted in detail below.
Out of 3,201 cases, 69% were judged to be identified, 22% were unidentified, and 9% had insufficient information to make a determination. A report classified as "unidentified" was defined as: "Those reports of sightings wherein the description of the object and its maneuvers could not be fitted to the pattern of any known object or phenomenon."
Only two of four scientific analysts had to agree for a case to be listed as an IFO, but all four analysts had to agree for it to be judged a UFO. About twice as many of the excellent cases were judged UFOs as the poorest cases. The difference was accounted for mostly by cases judged having “insufficient information”, which was only 4% for the best cases but 21% for the worst. Quality of cases didn’t seem to have much effect on the various category percentages for the IFOs, except in the “psychological” category, in which the poorest cases had much higher relative rates.
Category/Case Quality | All | Excellent | Good | Doubtful | Poor |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Astronomical | 22% | 24% | 23% | 19% | 23% |
Aircraft | 22% | 19% | 22% | 25% | 16% |
Balloon | 15% | 12% | 17% | 17% | 13% |
Light phenomena | 2.2% | .9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
Birds | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
Clouds, dust, etc. | 0.4% | 0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0% |
Psychological | 2.0% | 0% | 0.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
Other | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% |
Insufficient information | 9% | 4% | 4% | 14% | 21% |
Unknown origin | 22% | 33% | 25% | 13% | 17% |
BBSR further broke these results down based on whether the identification was considered certain or merely doubtful. For example, in both the astronomical and aircraft IFO categories, 12+% were considered certain and 9+% were doubtful. Overall, of the 69% listed as IFOs, 42% were thought to be solved with certainty, while 27% were still considered doubtful.
In addition, if a case was lacking in adequate data, it was placed in the insufficient information category, separate from both IFOs and UFOs.
Based on the Battelle statistical analysis, the percentages of unknowns increased significantly with the quality of the cases. This is contrary to the contention of some skeptical analyses, such as the 1953 CIA Robertson Panel, that the remaining unidentified cases were the result of poor quality reports or insufficient information.
IFO | UFO | Insufficient Information | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mil | Civ | All | Mil | Civ | All | Mil | Civ | All | |
Best reports | 65% | 72% | 68% | 32% | 24% | 28% | 2% | 4% | 3% |
Worst reports | 70% | 70% | 70% | 24% | 14% | 16% | 7% | 17% | 14% |
The Battelle BBSR study consisted of many internal military reports; fully 38% of the cases were designated as military. Military witnesses tended to submit better quality reports, had much fewer reports rated as having insufficient information, and had higher percentages of unknowns. As in the previous breakdown, the percentage of UFOs again rose with case quality for both the military and civilian subcategories.
In the summary table, best reports are those rated excellent and good; worst reports are doubtful” and poor.
A key study of BBSR was to statistically compare IFOs and UFOs by six characteristics: color, number of objects, shape, duration of observations, speed, and light brightness. If there were no significant differences, the two classes were probably the same, the UFOs then representing merely a failure to properly identify prosaic phenomena that could already account for the IFOs. On the other hand, if the differences were statistically significant, this would suggest IFOs and UFOs were indeed distinctly different phenomena.
In the initial results, all characteristics except brightness tested significant at less or much less than 1% (brightness was greater than 5%). By removing "astronomical" sightings from the "knowns" and redoing the test, just two categories, number and speed, were significant at less than 1%, the remainder having results between 3% and 5%. This indicated that there was a statistically significant difference between the characteristics ascribed to UFOs and IFOs, but perhaps not as significant as the initial results suggested. However, for two characteristics, brightness and speed, the significance actually increased with the revised test. Furthermore, even with revision, statistically significant results for six independent characteristics is highly improbable (less than one in a billion, by multiplying all probabilities together), strongly suggesting there was something fundamentally different between the UFOs and IFOs .
Like the Air Force, astronomer Allan Hendry found that only a small percentage of cases were hoaxes and that most sightings were actually honest misidentifications of prosaic phenomena. Hendry attributed most of these to inexperience or misperception.
Out of 1,307 cases Hendry deemed 88.6% had clear prosaic explanations (IFOs) and only 8.6% were unknowns (UFOs). Of the UFOs, Hendry thought that 7.1%, might still have a prosaic explanation while 1.5% (20 cases) had no possible plausible explanation and were completely unexplained. The remaining miscellaneous cases (2.8%) were “garbage” cases, where Hendry deemed the witnesses unreliable, the reports hopelessly contradictory, or lacking in sufficient information.
Overall, in the three major categories, 42% of all cases had astronomical explanations, 37% were aircraft, and 5% were balloons. A further breakdown allowed 77% to be readily explained by five main classes of objects: 29% were bright stars or planets, 19% were advertising planes, 15% were other aircraft, 9% were meteors and reentering space debris, and 5% were balloons of various types (mostly weather or advertising balloons but also a few prank balloons).
Hendry also used a case classification system developed by his mentor Dr. J. Allen Hynek, who established CUFOS, where the study was carried out. In this summary table:
Category | NL | DD | CE | RV | Total Cases | Percent |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Astronomical | ||||||
bright stars or planets | 360 | 2 | 16 | 2 | 380 | 29% |
meteors, re-entering man-made spacecraft | 113 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 122 | 9% |
artificial satellites | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 2% |
moon | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 2% |
TOTAL (all cases) | 519 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 550 | 42% |
Aircraft | ||||||
advertising planes | 230 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 252 | 19% |
other aircraft | 196 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 224 | 17% |
missile launches | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0.7% |
TOTAL | 435 | 22 | 29 | 0 | 486 | 37% |
balloons | 23 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 63 | 5% |
birds | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.5% |
clouds, dust | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0.9% |
light phenomena (mirage, moon dog, ground lights, searchlights, etc.) | 9 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 1.1% |
other (kites, flares, reflections, windblown debris, etc.) | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 1.2% |
TOTALS IFOs | ||||||
Cases | 1024 | 71 | 58 | 5 | 1158 | 88.6% |
Percent | 78.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | .4% | 88.6% | |
TOTALS UFOs | ||||||
Cases | 79 | 18 | 16 | 0 | 113 | 8.6% |
Percent | 6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0% | 8.6% | |
MISC (insufficient information, inconsistent accounts, unreliable witnesses) | 36 | 2.8% | ||||
TOTAL all cases | ||||||
Cases | 1103 | 89 | 74 | 5 | 1307 | 100% |
Percent | 84.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 0.4% | 100% |
Both BBSR and Hendry found that the vast majority of IFOs were caused by three classes of objects or phenomena: Astronomical, aircraft, or balloons. Of all IFOs, 86% were accounted for by these three groups in the BBSR study vs. 83% in the Hendry study. However, there were significant differences in the percentages attributed to each group:
Light distortion from air turbulence can cause celestial bodies to move to a limited degree as can a visual perceptual effect called the autokinetic effect, caused by small, involuntary eye movements after staring at a star-like light against a black background without a frame of reference. To some observers, these may cause stars and planets to appear to start and stop, change direction, or dart around.
Hendry and many skeptics often attribute regular patterns such as “figure eights,” “meandering in a square pattern,” or “falling leaf motion” to these mechanisms and dismiss the sighting as an IFO, but this is far from certain. Movement caused by atmospheric effects or autokinesis is erratic and very limited in range. Therefore, in principle, such effects cannot cause true regular geometric motion such as a square pattern or figure eight, although perhaps those with vivid imaginations may attribute such patterns to random motion. In the case of autokinesis, the effect is very temporary and is destroyed by refixating one’s gaze. Also autokinesis can happen only in the absence of nearby objects. Thus if somebody was viewing a bright object near a visible horizon or in a field of nearby stars, it is very unlikely that autokinesis would be the cause of perceived motion.
Atmospheric distortion also tends to cause motion limited to only few seconds of a degree (causing the familiar twinkling of a star), and autokinesis is typically less than one degree. As Hendry himself noted, very large and prolonged excursions of motion would rule out either mechanism as a suitable explanation.
According to Hendry, moving clouds may also sometimes confuse observers by creating induced motion. Hendry believes this occasionally makes observers also believe objects have suddenly disappeared or make a rapid departure.
Another type of misperceived motion sometimes occurs when people are driving in a vehicle. Witnesses may believe the “UFO” was following them even though the celestial body was actually stationary. Even police and other normally reliable witnesses can occasionally be fooled by sightings of bright stars and planets.
Similarly, in about 10% of Hendry’s cases caused by celestial bodies, witnesses greatly underestimated distances to the objects, giving distance estimates ranging from 200 feet to 125 miles (60 m to 200 km).
Reentering space debris or meteors may appear as a string of lights. This can occasionally be misinterpreted as lights coming from windows, creating the illusion of a spacecraft. However, such mistakes are actually extremely rare. The effect was first noted in a widely observed 1969 re-entry of a Soviet satellite. The Air Force collected hundreds of reports from witnesses. From these, debunker and astronomer Donald Menzel found three anecdotal cases where witnesses reported the effect. (UFO’s, A Scientific Debate, 155-161). This suggests that perhaps only 1% of all witnesses actually interpret similar events in this way. It is thus a mistake to assert that all reports of elongated objects with windows are due to misidentified meteor trains or space debris.
Because Venus is the brightest object in the sky (except for the sun and moon) it is frequently misidentified. Contributing to this, Venus is often visible in the early evening and morning sky, and thus seen by many people. Even experienced witnesses, especially when they are in unfamiliar surroundings or atmospheric conditions are unusual, may be confused, at least temporarily.
For example, Astronaut Gordon Cooper, himself a strong advocate of the Extraterrestrial hypothesis, related that he had once been momentarily fooled by the planet Venus when he was a fighter pilot, thinking it a distant enemy plane, and pursued it for several minutes. Other famous cases involving Venus are the Jimmy Carter UFO Incident of 1969 [7] (though the skeptical explanation of Venus is hotly contested, including by Carter himself) and the flying cross chased by two policemen in Devon, England, in 1967[8].
Although there is no doubt that Venus frequently triggers UFO reports, it is often overplayed as a UFO culprit by many skeptics. For example, astronomer Phil Plait claimed that Venus was responsible for a “majority” of all UFO reports (Plait, 205). But the studies cited here do not support this. BBSR attributed only 22% of sightings to astronomical causes of all types, stars, planets, meteors, etc. Venus constituted some unspecified fraction of these. “Certain” astronomical identifications were only 13% of cases (the other 9% of astronomical IDs being “doubtful”), which would further reduce the number of actual “Venus cases.” Hendry attributed a larger 29% of sightings collectively to “bright stars or planets.” Again the fraction believed caused specifically by Venus isn’t broken down, but likely didn’t exceed 20%.
In other cases, some skeptics will claim Venus (or perhaps Jupiter or a bright star) to be responsible for a sighting when they aren’t even visible or are in the wrong part of the sky. An infamous example occurred in August 1965 when the U.S. Air Force tried to explain away widespread sightings in the midwest as bright stars in or near the constellation Orion. However, Orion, a winter constellation, was still well below the horizon at the time, a fact quickly pointed out by some astronomers, and the Air Force was forced to make a hasty retraction. [9][10]
Further, sometimes impossible properties are ascribed to Venus in order to debunk prominent UFO cases. In one famous case, known as the Portage County UFO Chase from 1966, two policemen in their car chased a brilliant UFO for an extended period of time; in the end, seven police officers were involved in the pursuit, and about half a dozen civilians claimed to have seen the same or a similar object. The deputies said the UFO was as clearly defined and metallic, roughly the size of a house when they first saw it up close, bathed them and the surrounding countryside in bright light, and flew directly over them at one point. Another set of policemen saw the initial two officers' car and the UFO approaching rapidly from the west while Venus was in the east. Despite this, the USAF claimed, after a cursory investigation (only one of the police officers and none of the civilians was interviewed) the police chased a satellite and then Venus. [11] (This incident was the inspiration for the police UFO chase in Steven Spielberg’s Close Encounters of the Third Kind). However, in another famous police chase, the "flying cross" UFO of Devon, England, in October 1967, the culprit was definitely identified as Venus.[15]
In many cases, whether an unknown flying object is ultimately called an IFO or UFO is a judgment call of the researchers involved, and thus the proportion of IFOs to UFOs will inevitably fluctuate and their significance will remain controversial. As Hendry himself noted, “Reasonable UFO proponents admit that ‘genuine’ UFO sightings are in the minority, around 10-20%; the skeptics say, ‘If 90% of the reports are IFOs, why not 100%?'"
Fata Morgana might be responsible for some UFO sightings. Fata Morgana might display the objects that are located below astronomical horizon hovering in the sky. Fata Morgana might also magnify these objects and make them look absolutely unrecognizable.
The UFOs seen on radars might also be due to Fata Morgana.Offical UFO Investigations in France indicates[16]:
As is well known, atmospheric ducting is the explanation for certain optical mirages, and in particular the arctic illusion called "fata morgana" where distant ocean or surface ice, which is essentially flat, appears to the viewer in the form of vertical columns and spires, or "castles in the air."
People often assume that mirages occur only rarely. This may be true of optical mirages, but conditions for radar mirages are more common, due to the role played by water vapor which strongly affects the atmospheric refractivity in relation to radio waves. Since clouds are closely associated with high levels of water vapor, optical mirages due to water vapor are often rendered undetectable by the accompanying opaque cloud. On the other hand, radar propagation is essentially unaffected by the water droplets of the cloud so that changes in water vapor content with altitude are very effective in producing atmospheric ducting and radar mirages.
Fata Morgana was named as one of hypothesis for mysterious Australian phenomenon Min Min light[17]
Ufology is a neologism describing the collective efforts of those who study UFO reports and associated evidence. While not all UFO researchers believe that all UFOs are necessarily extraterrestrial spacecraft, they do believe the area merits research and that the possibility of extraterrestrial spacecraft should be taken seriously.
An Air Force study by Battelle Memorial Institute scientists from 1952–1955 of 3200 USAF cases found 22% were unknowns, and with the best cases, 33% remained unsolved. Similarly about 30% of the UFO cases studied by the 1969 USAF Condon Committee were deemed unsolved when reviewed by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA). The official French government UFO scientific study (GEIPAN) from 1976 to 2004 listed about 13% of 5800 cases as detailed yet inexplicable (with 46% deemed to have definite or probable explanations and 41% having inadequate information).[18]
There are different opinions about the UFO phenomenon. To account for unsolved UFO cases, several hypotheses have been proposed by both proponents and skeptics. Usually a combination of explanations are invoked to fully explain unknown cases. A few examples are given below:
Among proponents, some of the more common explanations for UFOs are:
Similarly, skeptics usually propose some of the following explanations:
Other skeptical arguments against UFOs include:
Most UFO sightings are transitory events and there is usually no opportunity for the repeat testing called for by the scientific method; this argument is also noted by some mainstream scientists[20] who argue UFOs deserve serious scientific scrutiny.
Besides visual sightings, cases sometimes have indirect physical evidence, including many cases studied by the military and various government agencies of different countries. Indirect physical evidence would be data obtained from afar, such as radar contact and photographs. More direct physical evidence involves physical interactions with the environment at close range—Hynek's "close encounter" or Vallee's "Type-I" cases—which include "landing traces," electromagnetic interference, and physiological/biological effects.
These various reported physical evidence cases have been studied by various scientist and engineers, both privately and in official governmental studies (such as Project Blue Book, the Condon Committee, and the French GEPAN/SEPRA). A comprehensive scientific review of physical evidence cases was carried out by the 1998 Sturrock UFO panel.
Attempts have been made to reverse engineer the possible physics behind UFOs through analysis of both eyewitness reports and the physical evidence. Examples are former NASA and nuclear engineer James McCampbell in his book Ufology,[22] NACA/NASA engineer Paul R. Hill in his book Unconventional Flying Objects, and German rocketry pioneer Hermann Oberth. Among subjects tackled by McCampbell, Hill, and Oberth was the question of how UFOs can fly at supersonic speeds without creating a sonic boom. McCampbell's proposed solution of a microwave plasma parting the air in front of the craft is currently being researched by Dr. Leik Myrabo, Professor of Engineering Physics at the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute as a possible advance in hypersonic flight.[23] In contrast, Hill and Oberth believed UFOs utilize an as yet unknown anti-gravity field to accomplish the same thing as well as provide propulsion and protection of occupants from the effects of high acceleration.
Some studies show that after investigation, the majority of UFOs are usually identified (see identified flying object). For example, a 1979 study by CUFOS researcher Allan Hendry found that up to 91.4% of the reports he investigated were either identifiable (91.4%) or could possibly be attributable (7.1%) to known artificial objects and natural phenomena.[26] Hendry's figure for unidentified cases is considerably lower than many official UFO studies such as Project Blue Book or the Condon Report which found unidentified cases made up 6% and 30% of reports respectively.
UFOs have been subject to various investigations over the years, varying widely in scope and scientific rigor. Governments or independent academics in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, Sweden, Brazil, Mexico, Spain, and the Soviet Union are known to have investigated UFO reports at various times.
Among the best known government studies are Project Blue Book, previously Project Sign and Project Grudge, conducted by the United States Air Force from 1947 until 1969, the secret U.S. Army/Air Force Project Twinkle investigation into green fireballs (1948–1951), and Brazilian Air Force Operation Saucer (1977). Major civilian UFO groups in the U.S that have conducted extensive investigations were/are NICAP, APRO, MUFON, and CUFOS.
Starting July 9, Army Air Force (AAF) intelligence, in cooperation with the FBI, began a formal investigation into selected sightings with characteristics that could not be immediately rationalized, which included Arnold’s and the United crew’s. The AAF used "all of its scientists" to determine whether or not "such a phenomenon could, in fact, occur". The research was "being conducted with the thought that the flying objects might be a celestial phenomenon," or that "they might be a foreign body mechanically devised and controlled."[27] Three weeks later in a preliminary defense estimate, the air force investigation decided that, "This ‘flying saucer’ situation is not all imaginary or seeing too much in some natural phenomenon. Something is really flying around."[28]
A further review by the intelligence and technical divisions of the Air Materiel Command at Wright Field reached the same conclusion, that "the phenomenon is something real and not visionary or fictitious," that there were objects in the shape of a disc, metallic in appearance, and as big as man-made aircraft. They were characterized by "extreme rates of climb [and] maneuverability," general lack of noise, absence of trail, occasional formation flying, and "evasive" behavior "when sighted or contacted by friendly aircraft and radar," suggesting a controlled craft. It was thus recommended in late September 1947 that an official Air Force investigation be set up to investigate the phenomenon.
This led to the creation of the Air Force’s Project Sign at the end of 1947, one of the earliest government studies to come to a secret ETH conclusion. In August 1948, Sign investigators wrote a top-secret intelligence estimate to that effect. The Air Force Chief of Staff Hoyt Vandenberg ordered it destroyed. The existence of this suppressed report was revealed by several insiders who had read it, such as astronomer and USAF consultant Dr. J. Allen Hynek and Edward J. Ruppelt, the first head of the USAF's Project Blue Book. (Ruppelt, Chapt. 3)
Project Sign was dismantled and became Project Grudge at the end of 1948, and then Project Blue Book In 1952. Blue Book closed down in 1970, ending the official Air Force UFO investigations. However, a 1969 USAF document, known as the Bolender memo, plus later government documents revealed that nonpublic U.S. government UFO investigations continued after 1970. The Bollender memo first stated that "reports of unidentified flying objects which could affect national security... are not part of the Blue Book system," indicating that more serious UFO incidents were already handled outside of the public Blue Book investigation. The memo then added, "reports of UFOs which could affect national security would continue to be handled through the standard Air Force procedures designed for this purpose."
An early U.S. Army study, of which little is known, was called the Interplanetary Phenomenon Unit (IPU). In 1987, British UFO researcher Timothy Good received a letter confirming the existence of the IPU from the Army Director of Counter-intelligence, in which it was stated, "...the aforementioned Army unit was disestablished during the late 1950s and never reactivated. All records pertaining to this unit were surrendered to the U.S. Air Force Office of Special Investigations in conjunction with operation BLUEBOOK." The IPU records have never been released.[29]
Use of UFO instead of flying saucer was first suggested in 1952 by Capt. Edward J. Ruppelt, the first director of Project Blue Book, who felt that flying saucer did not reflect the diversity of the sightings. Ruppelt suggested that UFO should be pronounced as a word — you-foe. However it is generally pronounced by forming each letter: U.F.O. His term was quickly adopted by the Air Force, which also briefly used "UFOB" circa 1954, for Unidentified Flying Object. Ruppelt recounted his experiences with Project Blue Book in his memoir, The Report on Unidentified Flying Objects (1956), also the first book to use the term.[30]
Air Force Regulation 200-2,[31] issued in 1954, defined an Unidentified Flying Object (UFOB) as "any airborne object which by performance, aerodynamic characteristics, or unusual features, does not conform to any presently known aircraft or missile type, or which cannot be positively identified as a familiar object." The regulation also said UFOBs were to be investigated as a "possible threat to the security of the United States" and "to determine technical aspects involved." As with any then-ongoing investigation, Air Force personnel did not discuss the investigation with the press.[32][33]
Well known American investigations include:
In Canada, the Department of National Defence has dealt with reports, sightings and investigations of UFOs across Canada. In addition to conducting investigations into crop circles in Duhamel, Alberta, it still identifies the Falcon Lake incident in Manitoba and the Shag Harbour incident in Nova Scotia as "unsolved".[34]
The Canadian studies include Project Magnet (1950–1954) and Project Second Story (1952–1954)
In March 2007, the French Centre National d'Études Spatiales (CNES) published an archive of UFO sightings and other phenomena online.[35]
French studies include GEPAN/SEPRA/GEIPAN (1977–), within the French space agency CNES, the longest ongoing government-sponsored investigation, and the private French COMETA panel (1996–1999)
The UK conducted various investigations into UFO sightings and related stories. The contents of some of these investigations have since been released to the public.
Eight file collections on UFO sightings, dating from 1978 to 1987, were first released on May 14, 2008, to the UK National Archives by the Ministry of Defence.[36] Although kept secret from the public for many years, most of the files have low levels of classification and none is classified Top Secret. 200 files are set to be made public by 2012. The files are correspondence from the public sent to government officials, such as the MoD and Margaret Thatcher. The MoD released the files under the Freedom of Information Act due to requests from researchers. [37] These files include, but are not limited to, UFOs over Liverpool and the Waterloo Bridge in London.[38]
On 20th October 2008 more UFO files were released. One case released detailed that in 1991 an Alitalia passenger aircraft was approaching Heathrow Airport when the pilots saw what they descibed as a "cruise missile" flew extremely close to the cockpit. The pilots believed that a collision was imminent. UFO expert Dr David Clarke says that this is one of the most convincing cases for a UFO he has come across. [39]
British investigations include The UK's Flying Saucer Working Party. Its final report, published in 1951, remained secret for over 50 years. The Working Party concluded that all UFO sightings could be explained as misidentifications of ordinary objects or phenomena, optical illusions, psychological delusions or hoaxes. The report stated: ‘We accordingly recommend very strongly that no further investigation of reported mysterious aerial phenomena be undertaken, unless and until some material evidence becomes available’. Another notable investigation was Project Condign (1997–2000)
A secret study of UFOs undertaken for the UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) between 1996 and 2000 and was publicly released in 2006. The report is titled "Unidentified Aerial Phenomena in the UK Defence Region" and was code-named Project Condign. The report confirmed earlier findings that the main causes of UFO sightings are misidentification of man-made and natural objects. The report noted: "No artefacts of unknown or unexplained origin have been reported or handed to the UK authorities, despite thousands of UAP reports. There are no SIGINT, ELINT or radiation measurements and little useful video or still IMINT." It concluded: "There is no evidence that any UAP, seen in the UKADR [UK Air Defence Region], are incursions by air-objects of any intelligent (extraterrestrial or foreign) origin, or that they represent any hostile intent." In contrast to the official government position, Nick Pope, the head of the UK government UFO desk for a number of years, is an advocate of the ETH, based on the inexplicable (to him) cases he reviewed, such as the Rendlesham UFO incident and the so-called Cosford Incident.
The Air Force's Project Blue Book files indicate that approximately 1%[40] of all unknown reports came from amateur and professional astronomers or other users of telescopes (such as missile trackers or surveyors). In the 1970s, astrophysicist Peter A. Sturrock conducted two surveys of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics and American Astronomical Society. About 5% of the members polled indicated that they had had UFO sightings. In 1980, a survey of 1800 members of various amateur astronomer associations by Gert Helb and astronomer J. Allen Hynek of the Center for UFO Studies (CUFOS) found that 24% responded "yes" to the question "Have you ever observed an object which resisted your most exhaustive efforts at identification?"
Astronomer Clyde Tombaugh, who admitted to six UFO sightings, including three green fireballs supported the Extraterrestrial hypothesis (ETH) for UFOs and stated he thought scientists who dismissed it without study were being "unscientific." Another astronomer was Dr. Lincoln LaPaz, who had headed the Air Force's investigation into the green fireballs and other UFO phenomena in New Mexico. LaPaz reported two personal sightings, one of a green fireball, the other of an anomalous disc-like object. Even later UFO debunker Dr. Donald Menzel filed a UFO report in 1949.
Some studies were neutral in their conclusions, but argued the inexplicable core cases called for continued scientific study. Examples are the Sturrock Panel study of 1998 and the 1970 AIAA review of the Condon Report. Other private or governmental studies, some secret, have concluded in favor of the ETH, or have had members who disagreed with the official conclusions. The following are examples of such studies and individuals:
On November 12, 2007, Former Arizona Governor Fife Symington moderated a panel of former high-ranking government, aviation and military officials from seven countries at the National Press Club;[46] discussing the UFO topic and governmental investigations. The press conference was open for credentialed media and congressional staff only.[47][48][49][50][51][52]
Some researchers recommend that observations be classified according to the features of the phenomenon or object that are reported or recorded. Typical categories include:
Dr. J. Allen Hynek developed another system of description, dividing sightings into six categories.[53][54]
The distant classification is useful in terms of evidentiary value, with RV cases usually considered to be the highest because of radar corroboration and NL cases the lowest because of the ease in which lights seen at night are often confused with prosaic phenomena such as meteors, bright stars, or airplanes. RV reports are also fewest in number, while NL are largest.
In addition were three "close encounter" (CE) subcategories, again thought to be higher in evidentiary value, because it includes measurable physical effects and the objects seen up close are less likely to be the result of misperception. As in RV cases, these tend to be relatively rare:
Hynek's CE classification system has since been expanded to include such things as alleged alien abductions (CE4s) and cattle mutilation phenomena, military and civilians being attacked by UFOs, civilians and/or military attacking UFOs and alleged aliens.
Jacques Vallee has devised a UFO classification system which is preferred by many UFO investigators over Hynek's system as it is considerably more descriptive than Hynek's, especially in terms of the reported behavior of UFOs.[55]
Type I (a, b, c, d): Observation of an unusual object, spherical discoidal, or of another geometry, on or situated close to the ground (tree height, or lower), which may be associated with traces – thermal, luminous, or mechanical effects.
Type II (a, b, c): Observation of an unusual object with vertical cylindrical formation in the sky, associated with a diffuse cloud. This phenomenon has been given various names such as "cloud-cigar" or "cloud-sphere."
Type III (a, b, c, d, e): Observation of an unusual object of spherical, discoidal or elliptical shape, stationary in the sky.
Type IV (a, b, c, d): Observation of an unusual object in continuous flight.
Type V (a, b, c): Observation of an unusual object of indistinct appearance, i.e., appearing to be not fully material or solid in structure.
Source: 1. Jacques and Janine Vallee: Challenge To Science: The UFO Enigma, LC# 66-25843
UFOs are sometimes an element of elaborate conspiracy theories in which governments are said to be intentionally covering up the existence of aliens, or sometimes collaborating with them. There are many versions of this story; some are exclusive, while others overlap with various other conspiracy theories.
In the U.S., opinion polls again indicate that a strong majority of people believe the U.S. government is withholding such information. Various notables have also expressed such views. Some examples are astronauts Gordon Cooper and Edgar Mitchell, Senator Barry Goldwater, Vice Admiral Roscoe H. Hillenkoetter (the first CIA director), Lord Hill-Norton (former British Chief of Defense Staff and NATO head), the 1999 high-level French COMETA report by various French generals and aerospace experts, and Yves Sillard (former director of the French space agency CNES, new director of French UFO research organization GEIPAN).[56]
There is also speculation that UFO phenomena are tests of experimental aircraft or advanced weapons. In this case UFOs are viewed as failures to retain secrecy, or deliberate attempts at misinformation: to deride the phenomenon so that it can be pursued unhindered. This explanation may or may not feed back into the previous one, where current advanced military technology is considered to be adapted alien technology (see also: skunk works and Area 51).
It has also been suggested by a few paranormal authors that all or most human technology and culture is based on extraterrestrial contact. See also ancient astronauts.
Some also contend regarding physical evidence that it exists abundantly but is swiftly and sometimes clumsily suppressed by governments, aiming to insulate a population they regard as unprepared for the social, theological, and security implications of such evidence. See the Brookings Report.
There have been allegations of suppression of UFO related evidence for many decades. There are also conspiracy theories which claim that physical evidence might have been removed and/or destroyed/suppressed by some governments. (See also Men in Black) Some examples are:
UFOs constitute a widespread international cultural phenomenon of the last half-century. Gallup polls rank UFOs near the top of lists for subjects of widespread recognition. In 1973, a survey found that 95 percent of the public reported having heard of UFOs, whereas only 92 percent had heard of US President Gerald Ford in a 1977 poll taken just nine months after he left the White House. (Bullard, 141) A 1996 Gallup poll reported that 71 percent of the United States population believed that the government was covering up information regarding UFOs. A 2002 Roper poll for the Sci Fi channel found similar results, but with more people believing UFOs were extraterrestrial craft. In that latest poll, 56 percent thought UFOs were real craft and 48 percent that aliens had visited the Earth. Again, about 70 percent felt the government was not sharing everything it knew about UFOs or extraterrestrial life.[68][69][70] Another effect of the flying saucer type of UFO sightings has been Earth-made flying saucer craft in space fiction, for example the Earth-made craft Starship C-57D in Forbidden Planet, and the saucer part of the USS Enterprise in Star Trek And many others. For an excellent analysis of the interrelationship between popular culture and UFOs consult the research by psychologist Armando Simon, especially his contribution in Richard Haines' book, UFO Phenomena and the Behavioral Scientist.
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