Ukrainian presidential election, 2004

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Ukrainian presidential election, 2004
31 October and 26 December 2004
Nominee		Viktor Yushchenko	Viktor Yanukovych
Party		Independent	Party of Regions
Popular vote		15,115,712	12,848,528
Percentage		51.99%	44.20%
Results of the December 26, 2004 repeated run-off presidential election. Orange denotes provinces where Yushchenko won the popular vote. Blue represents provinces where Yanukovych led in the popular vote.
Incumbent President Leonid Kuchma Non-Partisan President-Elect Viktor Yushchenko Non-Partisan

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The presidential election held in November and December 2004 in Ukraine was mostly a political battle between then Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and former Prime Minister and opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko. The election was held in a highly charged atmosphere, with allegations of media bias, intimidation, and even a poisoning of Yushchenko that was later confirmed to be the result of the poison dioxin.

According to official Central Election Commission results announced on November 23, the election was won by Yanukovych, but Yushchenko and his supporters, as well as many international observers, denounced the election as rigged. This led to a serious political crisis, widespread acts of civil disobedience, dubbed the "Orange Revolution", which eventually led to the Ukrainian Supreme Court annulling the results and ordering a repeat of the second round.

The second vote was re-run on December 26. Observers reported a much fairer vote, and Viktor Yushchenko won with about 52% of the vote, to Yanukovych's 44%. Yushchenko was eventually declared the winner on January 10, 2005 after the failure of a legal action brought by Yanukovych.

For a timeline of events that followed the runoff, see Post-election developments in Ukraine, 2004.

Candidates

The two major contenders were Viktor Yanukovych and Viktor Yushchenko. Yanukovych, Ukrainian prime minister since 2002, was supported by the out-going President Leonid Kuchma, as well as Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin.

Yushchenko on the other hand, was considered more pro-Western, and enjoyed the support of the European Union and the United States.

In total, there were 26 candidates to the presidency, with other candidates receiving much fewer votes than the two leaders.

Summary

Viktor Yanukovych, Prime Minister at the time. Election poster in Vinnytsia (where support for Yanukovych was minimal).

Preliminary vote

The initial vote of the 2004 Ukrainian presidential election was held on October 31, 2004. The results announced were a near-draw: official figures gave Yanukovych 39.32% and Yushchenko 39.87% of the votes cast. As no candidate reached the 50% margin required for outright victory, a runoff election was to be held on November 21. Although a 75% turnout was recorded in the initial vote, observers reported many irregularities, particularly in the regions where Yushchenko's support was seen to be strongest. It was unclear how much of an impact this had on the result. 27,897,559 voters participated. Results of the preliminary vote were as follows:

Runoff

In the November 21 runoff, Ukraine's electoral commission declared Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych the winner. According to electoral commission data, Yanukovych had 49.42% and Yushchenko had 46.69% of the votes cast [1]. Observers for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) said the run-off vote "did not meet international standards" and U.S. senior election observer, Senator Richard Lugar, called it a "concerted and forceful program of election day fraud."

Official results of the Nov 21 vote for each oblast. Although the results have been heavily manipulated, the map still shows a political divide between eastern and western Ukraine.

The geographic distribution of the votes showed a clear east-west division of Ukraine, which is rooted deeply in the country's history. The western and central parts roughly correspond with the former territories of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in the 17th century. They are considered more pro-Western, with the population mostly Ukrainian-speaking and Ukrainian Greek Catholic (Uniate) in the west or Ukrainian Orthodox in the center, and have voted predominantly for Yushchenko. The heavy-industrialized eastern part, including the Autonomous Republic of Crimean, where the links with Russia and the Russian Orthodox Church are much stronger, and which contains many ethnic Russians, is a Yanukovych stronghold.

First-round voters in Kamianets-Podilskyi, October 31, 2004.

Between the two rounds of the election, dramatic increases in turnout were recorded in Yanukovych-supporting regions, while Yushchenko-supporting regions recorded the same turnout or lower than recorded in the first round. This effect was most marked in eastern Ukraine and especially in Yanukovych's stronghold of Donetsk Oblast, where a turnout of 98.5% was reportedly claimed—more than 40% up from the first round. In some districts, turnout was claimed to be more than 100%, with one district reported by observers to have claimed a 127% turnout. According to election observers and post-election criminal investigations, pro-Yanukovych activists traveled around the country and voted many times as absentees. Some groups dependent on government assistance, such as students, hospital patients and prisoners, were told to vote for the government candidate.

Many other irregularities were reported, including ballot-stuffing, intimidation at voting booths and huge numbers of new voters appearing on the electoral rolls—in Donetsk alone, half a million more voters were registered for the runoff election. Yanukovych won all but one of the regions where significant increases in turnout were claimed. It was later determined by the Ukrainian Supreme Court that this was in fact due to widespread falsification of the results.

Change in claimed turnout between the 1st and 2nd rounds of the election according to the Central Election Commission

International influence and reaction

Many commentators saw the elections as being influenced by outside powers, notably the United States, the European Union and Russia, with the US backing Yushchenko (Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski and Senator John McCain all visited Kiev, in official or private capacities), and Russian president Vladimir Putin publicly backing Yanukovych. In the media the two candidates were contrasted, with Yushchenko representing both the pro-Western Kiev residents as well as the rural Ukrainians, whereas Yanukovych represents the Eastern, pro-Russian industrial laborers.

More specifically it was believed that a Yushchenko victory would represent a halt of Ukraine's integration with the rest of the Commonwealth of Independent States, and possibly a cancellation of the Common Economic Space between Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan that had already been agreed to by the Ukrainian parliament; he would instead be likely to increase attempts at further integration with Europe and a possible membership in the EU and NATO. On the other hand Yanukovych had already promised to make Russian an official language for Ukraine, as is already the case in fellow CIS member states Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

Russia and the CIS

Putin congratulated Yanukovych, followed shortly afterwards by Belorussian president Alexander Lukashenko , on his victory before election results were even made official^[1] CIS election observers praised the second round of the elections as "legitimate and of a nature that reflected democratic standards", a view in direct contradiction to other monitoring organizations such as the ENEMO, the Committee of Voters of Ukraine and the IEOM.^[2]

Prominent hardliners in Russia cast the election as opposition to renewed Western imperialism. Russian Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov, for example, blames the West for interfering in the situation in Ukraine in the run-up to the October 31 presidential election:

On November 28, Yuriy Luzhkov, the Mayor of Moscow, gave a speech denouncing the Ukrainian opposition, calling its members a "sabbath of witches" pretending to "represent the whole of the nation."^[4] Russian newspapers have printed increasingly shrill warnings, with the Communist party paper Pravda claiming: "Nato troops in Hungary and Poland are preparing to move, and Romanian and Slovakian military units have been put on alert. Ukrainian towns are in their sights."

Several other CIS countries lined up with Russia in supporting Yanukovych. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko phoned Yanukovych to offer his own congratulations before the results had been officially declared. Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev wrote to Yanukovych that "Your victory shows that the Ukrainian people have made a choice in favour of the unity of the nation, of democratic development and economic progress." The presidents of Kyrgyzstan (Askar Akayev) and of Uzbekistan (Islom Karimov) likewise sent their congratulations. However, later Karimov criticized Russia's involvement in the Ukrainian election, saying that "Russia’s excessive demonstration of its willingness to see a certain outcome in the vote has done more harm than good."^[5]

In contrast, the Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili indicated his support for the supporters of Yushchenko, saying that "What is happening in Ukraine today clearly attests to the importance of Georgia's example for the rest of the world."^[6] This was a reference to the Rose Revolution of late 2003. Indeed, Georgians have been highly visible in the demonstrations in Kiev and the flag of Georgia has been among those on display in the city's Independence Square, while Yushchenko himself held up a rose in a seeming reference to the Rose Revolution.

Armenia and Azerbaijan kept more cautious positions, supporting neither side but stressing the need for Ukrainian unity.

On December 2, one day before the Supreme Court decided in favour of repeating the runoff election, President Kuchma visited Moscow to discuss the crisis with Vladimir Putin. Putin supported Kuchma's position of desiring wholly new elections, rather than just a repeat of the second round.

European Union

The European Union made it clear that they would not recognize the results of the election. All 25 member countries of the EU summoned their ambassadors from Ukraine in order to register a sharp protest against what is seen as election fraud.

The European Union disputed the election process in Ukraine, with European Commission President José Manuel Barroso warning of consequences if there is no review of the election. During a meeting between Putin and EU officials in the Hague, the Russian president opposed the EU reaction by saying that he was "deeply convinced that we have no moral right to push a big European state to any kind of massive disorder."

Among EU member states, Ukraine's western neighbours were most concerned. In Poland, Ukraine's largest western neighbour, politicians, the media and ordinary citizens enthusiastically supported Yushchenko and opposed the election fraud. Polish deputies to the European Parliament have called for giving Ukraine the prospect of future EU membership provided the country obeyed democratic standards. Western EU members are however more reluctant with the idea of Ukrainian membership in the EU, which results in Polish media accusing them of being more interested in the integration process with Turkey and maintaining good relations with Russia.

On November 25, former Ukrainian foreign minister and a close collaborator of Yushchenko, Borys Tarasyuk delivered a speech before the Polish Sejm, urging Poland not to recognize the election result and help solve the political crisis. On the same day former Polish President Lech Wałęsa went to Kiev to publicly express his support for Viktor Yushchenko. He was later followed by a number of Polish MPs from different parties.

On November 26 the President of Poland Aleksander Kwaśniewski arrived in Kiev, followed on the same day by the EU Minister for Foreign Affairs Javier Solana and the Lithuanian president Valdas Adamkus.

United States

The United States government also decided not to recognize the election, and expressed dissatisfaction with the results; the outgoing US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, quite unequivocally stated that the result announced could not be accepted as legitimate by the United States. President George W. Bush and various members of Congress made statements disclosing their concern over the legitimacy of the polling. Prominent former Cold War hawk Zbigniew Brzezinski cast the election as an opposition to renewed Russian imperialism:

U.S. Senators John McCain and Hillary Clinton jointly wrote a letter to nominate him along with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Rerun

Repeated voting, December 26 2004.

The final tally states that Viktor Yushchenko received 52.00% of the votes, while Viktor Yanukovych got 44.19%; Yanukovych finally conceded defeat on December 31, 2004, resigning as Ukraine's Prime Minister the same day. Despite Yushchenko's victory in the second round of voting, the regional voting patterns were largely unchanged from the first one, with many southern and eastern provinces going largely for Yanukovych, with the west and central regions again favoring Yushchenko.

Ukraine's supreme court rejected Yanukovych's appeal against the electoral commission's handling of the results on January 6.

On January 10 the Ukrainian Electoral Commission officially declared Yushchenko as the winner and on January 11 published the final election results,^[8] clearing the way for Yushchenko to be inaugurated as independent Ukraine's President. The official ceremonies took place on Sunday, January 23 at about noon, when Yushchenko was sworn in as President.

References

External links

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