Western Economists 20th-Century Economists (Keynesian economics) |
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![]() John Maynard Keynes (right) and Harry Dexter White at the Bretton Woods Conference |
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Full name | John Maynard Keynes |
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Birth | June 5, 1883Cambridge, England |
Death | April 21, 1946 (aged 62) Tilton, East Sussex, England |
School/tradition | Keynesian |
Main interests | economics, political economy, Probability |
Notable ideas | Spending multiplier |
Influenced by
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Influenced
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John Maynard Keynes (pronounced /ˈkeɪnz/ "cains") (June 5, 1883 – April 21, 1946) was a British economist whose ideas, called Keynesian economics, had a major impact on modern economic and political theory as well as on many governments' fiscal policies. He advocated interventionist government policy, by which the government would use fiscal and monetary measures to mitigate the adverse effects of economic recessions, depressions and booms. He is one of the fathers of modern theoretical macroeconomics and considered by some to be the most influential economist of the 20th century.[1][2][3]
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Born at 6 Harvey Road, Cambridge,[4] John Maynard Keynes was the son of John Neville Keynes, an economics lecturer at Cambridge University, and Florence Ada Brown, a successful author and a social reformer. His younger brother Geoffrey Keynes (1887–1982) was a surgeon and bibliophile and his younger sister Margaret (1890–1974) married the Nobel-prize-winning physiologist Archibald Hill.
Keynes's early romantic and sexual relationships were almost all with men.[5] Homosexuality was not unusual in the Bloomsbury Group in which Keynes was avidly involved. One of his great loves was the artist Duncan Grant, whom he met in 1908, and he was also involved with the writer Lytton Strachey.[5] Keynes appeared to turn away from homosexual relationships around the time of the first World War.[5] In 1918, he met Lydia Lopokova, a well-known Russian ballerina, and they married in 1925.[5][6] Their union was by all accounts happy, [7] but childless.
Keynes was ultimately a successful investor, building up a very substantial private fortune, and a vast collection of fine art (one of the largest private collections of the twentieth century), including amongst others, notable works by Paul Cezanne, Edgar Degas, Amadeo Modigliani, Georges Braque, Picasso, and Georges-Pierre Seurat.[6] He was nearly wiped out following the Stock Market Crash of 1929, but he soon recouped his fortune. He enjoyed collecting books: for example, he collected and protected many of Isaac Newton's papers. He was interested in literature in general and drama in particular and supported the Cambridge Arts Theatre financially, which allowed the institution to become, at least for a while, a major British stage outside of London.[6]
Bertrand Russell named Keynes the most intelligent person he had ever known, commenting, "Every time I argued with Keynes, I felt that I took my life in my hands and I seldom emerged without feeling something of a fool."[6]
Keynes enjoyed an elite education at Eton, where he displayed talent in a wide range of subjects; particularly mathematics, classics and history. His abilities were remarkable for their sheer diversity. He entered King’s College, Cambridge, in 1902, to study mathematics, but the famous Alfred Marshall begged Keynes to become an economist [8] It was at this time when Keynes became the President of the Cambridge University Liberal Club. Keynes received his B.A. in 1905 and his M.A. in 1908.
Keynes accepted a lectureship at Cambridge in economics funded personally by Alfred Marshall, from which position he began to build his reputation. Soon he was appointed to the Royal Commission on Indian Currency and Finance, where he showed his considerable talent at applying economic theory to practical problems.
His expertise was in demand during the First World War. He worked for the Adviser to the Chancellor of the Exchequer and to the Treasury on Financial and Economic Questions. Among his responsibilities were the design of terms of credit between Britain and its continental allies during the war, and the acquisition of scarce currencies.
At this latter endeavor Keynes’ “nerve and mastery became legendary,” in the words of economist Robert Lekachman, as in the case where he managed to put together — with difficulty — a small supply of Spanish pesetas. On hearing the news the secretary of the Treasury was delighted that Keynes had amassed enough to provide a temporary solution for the British Goverment. But Keynes did not hand the pesetas over, instead he sold them all to break the market: it worked, and pesetas became much less scarce and expensive. [9] These accomplishments led eventually to the appointment that would have a huge effect on Keynes’ life and career: financial representative for the Treasury to the 1919 Paris Peace Conference.
Keynes's career lifted off as an adviser to the British finance department from 1915 – 1919 during World War I, and their representative at the Versailles peace conference in 1919. His observations appeared in the highly influential book The Economic Consequences of the Peace in 1919, followed by A Revision of the Treaty in 1922. Using statistics provided to him by the German delegation, he argued that the reparations which Germany was forced to pay to the victors in the war were too large, would lead to the ruin of the German economy and result in further conflict in Europe. These predictions were borne out when the German economy suffered in the hyperinflation of 1923. Only a fraction of reparations were ever paid.
Keynes published his Treatise on Probability in 1921, a notable contribution to the philosophical and mathematical underpinnings of probability theory, championing the important view that probabilities were no more or less than truth values intermediate between simple truth and falsity. He attacked the deflation policies of the 1920s with A Tract on Monetary Reform in 1923, a trenchant argument that countries should target stability of domestic prices and propose flexible exchange rates. The Treatise on Money (1930) (2 volumes) effectively set out his Wicksellian theory of the credit cycle.
As Keynes recognizes in his magnum opus, which was published in 1936, the General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, his efforts challenged the economic paradigm. In the foreword to the German edition of the General Theory,[10] Keynes states that "the theory of aggregated production, which is the point of the following book, nevertheless can be much easier adapted to the conditions of a totalitarian state (eines totalen Staates) than the theory of production and distribution of a given production put forth under conditions of free competition and a large degree of laissez-faire."
In this book Keynes put forward a theory based upon the notion of aggregate demand to explain variations in the overall level of economic activity, such as were observed in the Great Depression. The total income in a society is defined by the sum of consumption and investment; and in a state of unemployment and unused production capacity, one can only enhance employment and total income by first increasing expenditures for either consumption or investment. The book was indexed by Keynes's student, later the economist David Bensusan-Butt.
The total amount of saving in a society is determined by the total income and thus, the economy could achieve an increase of total saving, even if the interest rates were lowered to increase the expenditures for investment. The book advocated activist economic policy by government to stimulate demand in times of high unemployment, for example by spending on public works. The book is often viewed as the foundation of modern macroeconomics. Historians agree that Keynes influenced U.S. president Roosevelt's New Deal, but disagree as to what extent. Deficit spending of the sort the New Deal began in 1938 had previously been called "pump priming" and had been endorsed by President Herbert Hoover. Few senior economists in the U.S. agreed with Keynes in the 1930s. [6] With time, however, his ideas became more widely accepted.[11]
In 1942, Keynes was a highly recognized economist and was raised to the House of Lords as Baron Keynes, of Tilton in the County of Sussex, where he sat on the Liberal benches. During World War II, Keynes argued in How to Pay for the War that the war effort should be largely financed by higher taxation, rather than deficit spending, in order to avoid inflation. As Allied victory began to look certain, Keynes was heavily involved, as leader of the British delegation and chairman of the World Bank commission, in the negotiations that established the Bretton Woods system. The Keynes-plan, concerning an international clearing-union argued for a radical system for the management of currencies. He proposed the creation of a common world unit of currency, the Bancor and of new global institutions - a world central bank and the International Clearing Union. Keynes envisaged these institutions managing an international trade and payments system with strong incentives for countries to avoid substantial trade deficits or surpluses. The USA's greater negotiating strength, however, meant that the final outcomes accorded more closely to the less radical plans of Harry Dexter White. [12] The two new institutions were founded, and would later be known as the World Bank and IMF, but there would be no incentives for states to avoid a large trade surplus. Keynes’ was still pleased when accepting the final agreement, saying that if the institutions stay true to their founding principles "the brother hood of man would become more than a phrase" [13] But later senior positions in both the world bank and IMF were increasingly filled with economists influenced by Keynes’ great rival Milton Friedman. [14]. The two institutions came to be seen as unfairly biased against less developed countries. [15]
Keynes wrote Essays in Biography and Essays in Persuasion, the former giving portraits of economists and notables, whilst the latter presents some of Keynes's attempts to influence decision-makers during the Great Depression. Keynes was editor in chief for the Economic journal from 1912. He was also a member of the Liberal Party.
In his magnum opus, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (1936), Keynes laid the foundation for the branch of economics termed "Macroeconomics" today. Based on the methods devised by Alfred Marshall, he argued that macroeconomic relationships differ from their microeconomic counterparts because the ceteris paribus clauses applicable to different levels of aggregation differ. The innovation in his core argument is to stop taking prices and wages as perfectly flexible, arguing instead for a certain degree of stickiness. Thanks to stickiness, it is established that the interaction of "aggregate demand" (in his sense) and "aggregate supply" (in his sense) may lead to stable unemployment equilibria. His work on employment went against the idea that the market ultimately settles at a state of full employment - a central tenet of Classical economists. Instead he argued that there exists a continuum of equilibria, the full employment equilibrium position being just one of them.(This idea underlies the choice of the title "General Theory": the classical theory being just a special case.)
His main contribution can be seen in establishing an approach to macroeconomics that maintains its relationship to the underlying microeconomic behaviors, but assumes a form qualitatively different from microeconomic models. (This contrasts with the assumption made in New Classical Economics where macro relationships are modelled analogously to micro-relationships, →Robert Lucas, Jr.).
He assumed that (marginal) labour productivity decreases with expanding employment. This is incompatible with the empirical findings summarized in Okun's Law. He combined this position with the marginal productivity theory of wages, implying that real wages decrease with increasing employment. This was shown to be empirically incorrect by the economist Dunlop, and Keynes accepted this. Keynes also suggested in the General Theory that inflation would occur only near "full employment" (in his sense), but it has been observed in many cases that inflation creeps up in states of severe underemployment (Stagflation). The assumption entertained by Keynes that inflation can only occur near full employment is still maintained in modern macroeconomics (→NAIRU). Keynes held that the cause of unemployment is a too high rate of savings, or insufficient investment expenditure. He conjectured that the amount of labour supplied is different when the decrease in real wages is due to a decrease in the money wage, than when it is due to an increase in the price level, assuming money wages stay constant. This conjecture relates to the "actual attitudes of workers" and is "not theoretically fundamental," although the New Keynesian economics emphasizes this point.
In his Theory of Money, Keynes said that savings and investment were independently determined. The amount saved had little to do with variations in interest rates which in turn had little to do with how much was invested. Keynes thought that changes in saving depended on the changes in the predisposition to consume which resulted from marginal, incremental changes to income. Therefore, investment was determined by the relationship between expected rates of return on investment and the rate of interest.
Keynes's personal interest in Classical Opera and Dance focused on his support of the Royal Opera House, Covent Garden and the Ballet Company at Sadlers Wells. During the War as a member of CEMA (Council for the Encouragement of Music and the Arts) Keynes helped secure government funds to maintain both companies while their venues were shut. Following the War Keynes was instrumental in establishing the Arts Council of Great Britain and was the founding Chairman in 1946. Unsurprisingly from the start the two organizations that received the largest grant from the new body were the Royal Opera House and Sadlers Wells.
Keynes served as Treasurer for the Cambridge University Eugenics Society between 1911-1913[16], and was on the board of directors of the British Eugenics Society in 1945. In 1946, Keynes still declared eugenics "the most important, significant and, I would add, genuine branch of sociology which exists."[17] Eugenics has since fallen into disfavor, owing to its association with the Nazi movement in Germany.
Keynes died of a heart attack at his holiday home in Tilton, East Sussex on the 21st April 1946. He died soon after arranging a guarantee of an Anglo-American loan to Great Britain, a process he described as "absolute hell".[18] Keynes's father, John Neville Keynes (1852 – 1949) outlived his son by three years. Keynes's brother Sir Geoffrey Keynes (1887 – 1982) was a distinguished surgeon, scholar and bibliophile. His nephews include Richard Keynes (born 1919) a physiologist; and Quentin Keynes (1921 – 2003) an adventurer and bibliophile.
Even as a young man Keynes possessed the easy self assurance that an Eton education often imparts. Yet he was convinced he was ugly from an early age. [19] Keynes was often mocked by his more sophisticated and elegant friends, yet he invariably retained a lifelong loyalty for them. [20] Keynes could sometimes appear cruel in the course of advancing his ideas. For example, his General Theory contains several personal attacks on the economist Arthur Cecil Pigou. An economist with few allies to defend him, Pigou had become eccentric and reclusive after harrowing experiences in WWI. As a seminal influence on both welfare and environmental economists [21] , Pigou was far from being a cold hearted advocate of raw laissez faire capitalism and even according to sources generally very favourable to Keynes assert Piago was chosen as a victim for Keynes attacks just because he was a soft target. [22] Keynes was said to have an unequalled capacity for rudeness and a shattering wit, yet he showed no malice no matter how heated the debate and was so charming that even those he attacked rarely bore a grudge. [23] Throughout his life Keynes worked energetically for the benefit both of the public and his friends – even when his health was poor he laboured to sort out the finances of his old college[19] , to help Great Britain in her post war negotiations with the US , and he suffered his final series of fatal heart attacks trying to negotiate a compromise on the Bretton Woods settlement that would have seen world trade governed more fairly. [21] Since his death on Easter 1946 Keynes has been being described several times as a saviour. [19] [21] [24]
Keynes attended church up to his teens ,[25] but by university he had became an agnostic, which he remained until his death. [26]
Keynes's theories were so influential, even when disputed, that a subfield of macroeconomics called Keynesian economics is further developing and discussing his theories and their applications.
While working on his General Theory, Keynes wrote to George Bernard Shaw saying "I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize, not I suppose at once but in the course of the next ten years – the way the world thinks about economic problems … I don't merely hope what I say, in my own mind I'm quite sure" [27] Professor Keith Shaw wrote that this degree of self confidence was quite amazing especially considering it took more than fifty years for the Newtonian revolution to gain universal recognition; but also that Keynes's confidence was fully justified. [28] Keynes provided the main inspiration for European and American economic policy makers from about 1941 – 1979. The fifties and sixties , where Keynes's influence was at its peak, appears in retrospect as a golden age. [22] In late 1965 Time magazine ran a cover article with the title echoing Richard Nixon's statement that "We Are All Keynesians Now". The article described the exceptionally favourable economic conditions then prevailing, and reported that "Washington's economic managers scaled these heights by their adherence to Keynes's central theme: the modern capitalist economy does not automatically work at top efficiency, but can be raised to that level by the intervention and influence of the government." The article also states that Keynes was one of the three most important economists ever, and that his General Theory was more influential than the magna opera of his rivals - Smith's The Wealth of Nations and Marx's Das Kapital. [29]
The adverse economic conditions of the seventies, most especially the 1973 oil crisis and the recession that followed, unleashed a swelling tide of criticism for Keynesian Economics, most notably from Friedrich von Hayek's Austrian School and Milton Friedman's Chicago School. By 1979 Monetarist/Austrian principles had displaced Keynes as the primary influence on Anglo American economic policy.[22] However many officials and economists on both sides of the Atlantic retained a preference for Keynes, and in 1984 the Federal Reserve officially discarded monetarism, after which Keynesian principles made a partial come back.[30] Yet free market doctrine remained strong in powerful institutions like the world bank, IMF and US treasury, as well as the foremost opinion forming media such as the Financial Times and the Economist.
The Financial crisis of 2007-2008 began to denounce the free market consensus. In March, free market guru Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, announced the death of the dream of global free-market capitalism, and quoted Josef Ackermann, chief executive of Deutsche Bank, as saying "I no longer believe in the market's self-healing power."[31] Shortly afterward influential Economist Robert Shiller began advocating robust government intervention to tackle the financial crises, specifically citing Keynes.[32][33] A series of major bail outs followed starting on September 7th with the announcement that the U.S. government was to nationalize the two firms which oversaw most of the U.S. subprime mortgage market—Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In October, the British Chancellor of the Exchequer referred to Keynes as he announced plans for substantial fiscal stimulus to head off the worst effects of recession, in accordance with Keynesian economic thought.[34] Similar policies have been announced in other European countries, by the U.S., and by China. [35] This is in stark contrast to the action permitted to Indonesia during its financial crisis of 1997, when it was forced by the IMF to close 16 banks at the same time, prompting a bank run.[36]
Prominent Keynesian economists included Paul Krugman, Greg Mankiw, and Joseph Stiglitz. The works on Keynes of Hyman Minsky[37], Robert Skidelsky[38], and Donald Markwell[39] were widely cited. Much discussion reflected Keynes's advocacy of international coordination of fiscal or monetary stimulus, and of international economic institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, which he had helped to create at Bretton Woods in 1944, and which many argued should be reformed at a 'new Bretton Woods'.[40] This was evident at the G20 and APEC meetings in Washington, DC, and Lima, Peru, in November 2008, and in coordinated reductions of interest rates by many countries in November and December 2008.
Keynesian thinking was reflected in the appointment by US President-elect Barack Obama of Lawrence Summers, Timothy F. Geithner, and Christina Romer to the principal economic positions in his administration.
John Maynard Keynes had several cultural interests and was a central figure in the so-called Bloomsbury group, consisting of prominent artists and authors in Britain. His autobiographical essays Two Memoirs appeared in 1949. His important contribution to thinking about international relations - including economic causes of war and economic means of promoting peace - has been neglected until recently.[41]
Friedrich von Hayek extensively critiqued Keynes's 1930 Treatise on Money,[42] only to have Keynes assert that the Treatise no longer reflected his thinking. However, after reading Hayek's The Road to Serfdom Keynes said, "In my opinion it is a grand book ... Morally and philosophically I find myself in agreement with virtually the whole of it: and not only in agreement with it, but in deeply moved agreement." Keynes was known, however, to open his letters with such complimentary language. He concluded the same letter with the prophecy, "What we need therefore, in my opinion, is not a change in our economic programmes, which would only lead in practice to disillusion with the results of your philosophy; but perhaps even the contrary, namely, an enlargement of them. Your greatest danger is the probable practical failure of the application of your philosophy in the United States."[43] On the pressing issue of the time, whether deficit spending could lift a country from depression, Keynes replied to Hayek's criticism in the following way,
"I should... conclude rather differently. I should say that what we want is not no planning, or even less planning, indeed I should say we almost certainly want more. But the planning should take place in a community in which as many people as possible, both leaders and followers wholly share your own moral position. Moderate planning will be safe enough if those carrying it out are rightly oriented in their own minds and hearts to the moral issue. This is in fact already true of some of them. But the curse is that there is also an important section who could be said to want planning not in order to enjoy its fruits but because morally they hold ideas exactly the opposite of yours, and wish to serve not God but the devil."[44]
Hayek explained the first section of the letter saying that this is "because Keynes believed that he was fundamentally still a classical English liberal and wasn't quite aware of how far he had moved away from it. His basic ideas were still those of individual freedom. He did not think systematically enough to see the conflicts."[45]
The Keynes-Hayek conflict was but one battle in the Cambridge-LSE war. Hayek also felt that application of Keynes's policies would give too much power to the state and lead to socialism.[46]
While Milton Friedman described The General Theory as 'a great book', he argues that its implicit separation of nominal from real magnitudes is neither possible nor desirable; macroeconomic policy, Friedman argues, can reliably influence only the nominal.[47] He and other monetarists have consequently argued that Keynesian economics can result in stagflation, the combination of low growth and high inflation that developed economies suffered in the early 1970s. More to Friedman's taste was the Tract on Monetary Reform (1923), which he regarded as Keynes's best work because of its focus on maintaining domestic price stability.[47]
Keynes family
Peerage of the United Kingdom | ||
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Preceded by New Creation |
Baron Keynes 1942-46 |
Succeeded by Extinct |
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Persondata | |
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NAME | Keynes, John Maynard, 1st Baron Keynes |
ALTERNATIVE NAMES | |
SHORT DESCRIPTION | British economist |
DATE OF BIRTH | 5 June 1883 |
PLACE OF BIRTH | Cambridge, UK |
DATE OF DEATH | 21 April 1946 |
PLACE OF DEATH | Tilton, East Sussex, UK |