William M. Gray

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William M. "Bill" Gray (born 1929) is a pioneer in the science of forecasting hurricanes. In 1952 he received a B.S. degree in geography from George Washington University, and in 1959 a M.S. in meteorology from the University of Chicago, where he went on to earn a Ph.D. in geophysical sciences in 1964.

Gray pioneered the concept of "seasonal" hurricane forecasting—predicting months in advance the severity of the coming hurricane season. Gray's prognostications have been issued since 1984 and are used by insurance companies to calculate premiums.[1]

Gray is Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU), and head of the Tropical Meteorology Project at CSU's Department of Atmospheric Sciences. Gray is noted for his forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity.

Gray served as a weather forecaster for the United States Air Force, and as a research assistant in the University of Chicago Department of Meteorology. He joined Colorado State University in 1961. He has been advisor of over 70 Ph.D. and M.S. students. His team has been issuing seasonal hurricane forecasts since 1984.

After the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, Gray announced that he was stepping back from the primary authorship of CSU's tropical cyclone probability forecasts, passing the role to Philip J. Klotzbach. Gray indicated that he would be devoting more time to the issue of global warming. He is a controversial figure in the global warming debate, as he does not subscribe to anthropogenic causes for global warming.

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[edit] Seasonal hurricane forecasts

Gray developed a seasonal hurricane forecasting methodology in the 1980s and began reporting his forecasts to the public. His forecasts are widely discussed in the U.S. media. Preliminary forecasts are released before the start of the hurricane season, and the forecasts are then revised as the season progresses.

[edit] Stance on global warming

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Gray is skeptical of current theories of human-induced global warming, which he says is supported by scientists afraid of losing grant funding[2] and promoted by government leaders and environmentalists seeking world government.[3]. He believes that humans are not responsible for the warming of the earth and has stated that "We're brainwashing our children."[4]. He asked, "How can we trust climate forecasts 50 and 100 years into the future (that can’t be verified in our lifetime) when they are not able to make shorter seasonal or yearly forecasts that could be verified?"[5]

Gray said those who had linked global warming to the increased number of hurricanes in recent years were in error. He cites statistics showing that there were 101 hurricanes from 1900 to 1949, in a period of cooler global temperature, compared to 83 from 1957 to 2006 when the earth warmed.[4]

Gray does not say there has not been any warming, but states "I don't question that. And humans might have caused a very slight amount of this warming. Very slight. But this warming trend is not going to keep on going. My belief is that three, four years from now, the globe will start to cool again, as it did from the middle '40s to the middle '70s."[6]

According to an earlier interview reported by Joel Aschenbach, Gray had similarly said that the current warming in the past decades is a natural cycle, driven by a global ocean circulation that manifests itself in the North Atlantic Ocean as the Gulf Stream [3].

In a December 2006 interview with David Harsanyi of The Denver Post, Gray said, "They've been brainwashing us for 20 years, starting with the nuclear winter and now with the global warming. This scare will also run its course. In 15–20 years, we'll look back and see what a hoax this was." In this interview, Gray cites the global cooling article in Newsweek from 1975 as evidence that such a scare has happened in the past.[6]

In 2006, Gray predicted a cooling trend by 2009-2010.[1] In 2008, Gray changed the prediction to "within ten years."[2]


[edit] Criticisms of Gray's statements on global warming

Gray's statements on Global Warming have been the subject of criticism. Peter Webster, a Georgia Institute of Technology professor, has been part of the anonymous peer review on several of Gray's National Science Foundation proposals. In every case he has turned down the global warming research component because he believed it was not up to standards, but recommended that Gray's hurricane research be funded.[7]

Webster, who has co-authored other scientific papers with Gray, is also critical of Gray for his personal attacks on the scientists with whom he disagrees. "Bill, for some very good reasons, has been the go-to man on hurricanes for the last 35 years," says Webster. "All of a sudden there are a lot of people saying things Bill doesn't agree with. And they're getting a lot of press—more press than I like, actually. I like the ivory tower. But he's become more and more radical."[7]

[edit] Attempted betting over global warming

Gray stated in March 2008, "“We should begin to see cooling coming on. I’m willing to make a big financial bet on it. In 10 years, I expect the globe to be somewhat cooler than it is now, because this ocean effect will dominate over the human-induced CO2 effect and I believe the solar effect and the land-use effect. I think this is likely bigger.” [3]

On April 11, 2008 The Rocky Mountain Collegian[4] ran an ad on page 6 of the offline paper version of the newspaper that accepted Gray's bet offer. The ad stated "I gladly accept your offer to bet over global warming. I suggest we each donate $5,000 to the Longbets.org charity to bet over whether temperatures will rise or fall in ten years. When the time’s up, Longbets will give all of our money to the winner’s designated charity, even if neither of us is around to see who’s won." The ad had been placed by a critic of Gray.[5]

[edit] See also

[edit] References

  1. ^ Riccardi, Nicholas. "Eminence Grise of Hurricane Forecasting; William Gray, 76, is a climatology pioneer as well as a throwback, using historical data to predict the severity of future seasons.", Los Angeles Times, 2006-05-30, pp. A.6. Retrieved on 2007-11-12. 
  2. ^ Gray, William M. (2000-11-16). Viewpoint: Get off warming bandwagon. BBC News. Retrieved on 2007-11-10.
  3. ^ a b Achenbach, Joel (2006-05-28). The Tempest. The Washington Post. Retrieved on 2007-04-23.
  4. ^ a b Lyttle, Steve (2007-10-14). Gore gets a cold shoulder. Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved on 2007-11-11.
  5. ^ Gray, William M. (2005-09-28). Statement of Dr. William Gray. United States Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. Retrieved on 2007-04-23.
  6. ^ a b Harsanyi, David (2006-06-05). Chill out over global warming. The Denver Post. Retrieved on 2007-04-23.
  7. ^ a b Prendergast, Alan (2006-06-29). The Skeptic. Denver Westwood News.

[edit] External links

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