Unknown unknown
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The term unknown unknown refers to a statement by United States Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld in 2002.
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[edit] The quote
The following statement was made by Donald Rumsfeld at the Defense Department Briefing on February 12, 2002:
| “ | There are known knowns. There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we do not know we don’t know. | ” |
This statement is an accurate transcription based on the video of the original press briefing. The Department of Defense transcript is inaccurate and lacks the same poetic quality as the original quote.
[edit] Decision theory
A similar distinction is made in decision theory. For example, Modica and Rustichini (1994, p. 107):
“A subject is certain of something when he knows that thing; he is uncertain when he does not know it, but he knows he does not: he is consciously uncertain. On the other hand, he is unaware of something when he does not know it, and he does not know he does not know, and so on ad infinitum: he does not perceive, does not have in mind, the object of knowledge. The opposite of unawareness is awareness.”
Unlike its use in everyday language, where risk is often synonymous with uncertainty, in decision theory uncertainty may be defined as "awareness of ignorance" (Vercelli, 1999). Vercelli (1999) distinguished between first-order ignorance as ignorance about characteristics of empirical phenomena and second-order ignorance defined as ignorance about characteristics of beliefs (about the characteristics of empirical phenomena).
[edit] Plain language
Donald Rumsfeld's statement won the 2003 Foot in Mouth award from the Plain English Campaign,[1] and is also hailed as an example of found poetry.
[edit] In popular culture
- In The Boondocks animated series, the character Gin Rummy, a representation of Donald Rumsfeld, makes several references to unknown unknowns.
- The band No Use for a Name used the entire aforementioned quote in their song Fields of Agony (Acoustic) on the record Rock Against Bush, Vol. 2.
- In "Lil' George and Lil' Tony Blair", an episode of Lil' Bush, Lil' Rummy makes a reference to the unknown unknowns.
- The Joan Jett song "Riddles" features the full unknown unknowns quote.
[edit] References
- ^ Foot in Mouth. Retrieved on 2007-12-17.
Vecelli, A. (1999). The recent advances in decision theory under uncertainty: a non-technical introduction. In Uncertain Decisions: bridging theory and experiment (ed. Luigi Luini). Kluwer Academic Publishers.
[edit] See also
- List of cognitive biases
- Quasi-empiricism in mathematics
- Ignoramus et ignorabimus
- I know that I know nothing
- Johari window
