United States Senate election in New Jersey, 2006

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The New Jersey 2006 U.S. Senate election held November 7, 2006 determined that Democrat Bob Menendez will represent New Jersey in the United States Senate for a six-year term ending January 2013. The seat was previously held by Democratic Governor of New Jersey Jon Corzine. After he stepped down from his Senate seat and was sworn in Governor, Corzine appointed Rep. Menendez, who was sworn in on January 18, 2006. Menendez was challenged by Republican Thomas Kean, Jr., a challenger and son of former Governor Thomas Kean. Filing for the primary closed on April 10, 2006. The primary election was held on June 6, 2006.[1]

Contents

[edit] Candidates

[edit] Democratic

Bob Menendez, a seven-term Congressman from Union City, was the incumbent Democrat. Menendez was appointed by Jon Corzine, the former holder of that seat who left to take the seat he won as Governor of New Jersey. Menendez is the first Hispanic to hold a U.S. Senate seat from New Jersey, and is the first Latino elected to statewide office in the state. As expected, Menendez won the Democratic primary, with 86% of the vote, against James D. Kelly, Jr., a candidate who had received 8% of the Democratic primary vote in the 2005 gubernatorial election against Jon Corzine.

[edit] Republican

Republican State Senator Thomas Kean, Jr., won the Republican primary by a 3-1 margin over John P. Ginty, an associate director with Standard & Poor's.[2] Ginty represented the conservative wing of the New Jersey Republican party.

Kean is the son of the former Governor of New Jersey Thomas Kean. Important factors in Kean's primary victory were his father's name recognition, along with Kean's self-described persona as a clean-cut corruption fighter.

A showdown between Bergen County Republican Organization (BCRO) conservatives and a group of insurgent moderate Republican critics ignited into a shoving match between supporters, with Kean temporarily refusing to accept the BCRO's endorsement of his candidacy, and refusing to run with the BCRO slate of nominees for the offices of County Executive, Surrogate, and Freeholder. As a result, Ginty was drafted by Bergen County conservatives to fill out the conservative slate of candidates in Bergen County for the Republican primary.[3] Kean eventually accepted the BCRO endorsement.

Ginty's entrance into the primary complicated matters for Kean, who had to consider moving to the right to secure the Republican nomination, something that would likely hamper his chances of defeating Menendez in November. Kean's supporters have argued there is virtually no chance for a pro-life, anti-gay marriage Republican to win a statewide election in New Jersey, where 66% of the voters are self-identified as pro-choice and polls illustrate a distinct majority support gay marriage.

[edit] Independent/third party

Brooks (from Trenton) is a former candidate for New Jersey's 12th congressional district in 2004.[4]
  • J.M. Carter - "God We Trust"
Carter (from Lawrence Township (Mercer County ) is a minister & former candidate for U.S. Senate in 2000.[1]
Flynn (from Marlboro) is a long-time Libertarian Party activist. Supports reductions in spending, taxes and the size of the Federal government.[2][3][4]
Forchion, also known as Weedman, (from Pemberton Township) is a Rastafarian. Supports religious tolerance and the decriminalization of marijuana.[5]
Lariscy (from Newark) is a sewing machine operator and trade unionist. Supports amnesty for all undocumented immigrants, abortion rights and opposes the Iraq War.[6]
Pason (from Maywood) is a social justice activist and former union official. Supports abortion rights and socialized healthcare, and opposes the Iraq war.[7]
Smith (from Hammonton) is a retired teacher, Korean War veteran and former member of the Camden County Board of Chosen Freeholders. Opposes abortion, judicial activism and supports veterans services.[8]

[edit] Write-in

[edit] Events leading up to the Republican primary

On March 20, 2006, Kean arrived late to a fundraising event for his campaign, after featured guest Vice President Dick Cheney had left, which some accused of him doing deliberately to avoid photographs of the two, together, that could be printed in the media.[5]

On March 27, 2006, at a news conference billed as a "major announcement" [6], Kean called for state and federal tax cuts, asking Menendez and Governor of New Jersey Jon Corzine to support them. In response, Matthew Miller, a spokesman for Menendez, said the U.S. senator supports "balanced tax cuts," not just ones that benefit the wealthiest Americans while expanding national debt.

On April 1, 2006, at the Middlesex County Republican Convention, Kean won the endorsement for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate (in other words, Kean was chosen as the county organization's recommended candidate for the June primary) over Ginty by a vote of 79% to 21%. However, the deadline for local Republicans to register to attend the convention had passed before Ginty announced his candidacy.

The New Jersey Right To Life Political Action Committee endorsed Ginty on April 27, 2006[7].

On May 2, 2006, Ginty publicly called on Kean to stop soliciting the endorsement of the Sierra Club. Ginty said Kean should not seek their endorsement because the Sierra Club is an "environmental extremist group with a deep history of involvement in left-wing causes" [8].

In early May, Ginty announced that he favors oil exploration in Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), something that Kean and Menendez both opposed[9].

[edit] General election

[edit] Factors

The biggest factors in the New Jersey Senate race may have little to do with the candidates involved and more to do with Governor of New Jersey Jon Corzine and President George W. Bush.

In mid-summer, Jon Corzine and the Democratic-controlled state legislature held a brief shutdown of state government, which ultimately resulted in a sales tax increase, among other things.

In a September 2006 poll, SurveyUSA found that Governor Jon Corzine received an approval rate of only 43%, with 48% of the state disapproving [10]. Since Menendez was appointed by Corzine, some pundits have argued that this will be a resonating factor with a number of voters.

According to a separate September 2006 poll, SurveyUSA found that the state of New Jersey has a rather high disapproval rating for Republican President George W. Bush, with 64% disapproving and only 32% approving[11]. This has led some pundits to argue that other voters will take their discontent with Bush out on Kean in the November election.

Some pundits have attributed Kean's surprisingly strong showing in the polls of this blue state to uninformed voters confusing the three-year state senator with his father, the popular former governor and 9/11 Commission chairman.[12]

Because of Kean's perceived liberalism on social issues, he has been labeled by some conservatives as a Republican in Name Only (RINO) [13].

[edit] Events leading up to the general election

On June 13, 2006, Kean held a fundraiser in Ocean County featuring First Lady Laura Bush. It was here that both Senator Kean and Mrs. Bush pointed out that Kean is not George W. Bush, claiming that Senator Menendez seems to confuse the two[14].

On June 16, 2006 at a New Jersey Association of Counties speaking event in Atlantic City, Kean and his aides beat a hasty retreat from the ballroom engagement and "stampeded" into an elevator in an abortive attempt to avoid the press, only to exit on the same floor as they had entered. Kean declined to answer questions about the scathing attacks on his integrity which his opponent had delivered minutes earlier, instead opting to repeat "a few slogans."[15]

In late June, the Associated Press reported that Kean's campaign was planning a "Swift Boat"-style film accusing Menendez of involvement in a New Jersey mob-connected kickback scheme "despite public records and statements disputing that claim." The AP article noted that "[f]our former federal prosecutors who oversaw the case have said Menendez was never involved in any wrongdoing."[16] The airing of unsubstantiated allegations years or even decades old is a hallmark of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth campaign attack style, which gained notoriety during the 2004 U.S. presidential election.

In mid-September, The Star-Ledger reported that Sen. Menendez had declined a national debate with Kean on the popular Sunday morning talk-show, Meet the Press. A Menendez spokesperson stated that the incumbent Democrat would prefer to focus on local citizens and press. Menendez did agree to take place in three locally-aired debates with Kean, which will be aired between October 7-17. [17] Kean withdrew from one of the scheduled debates to which he had previously committed, an October 14, 2006, debate sponsored by the League of Women Voters, insisting on a national TV debate as a condition of his participation.[18]

Both candidates have agreed to participate in a virtual debate sponsored by the nonpartisan Hall Institute of Public Policy which provides "an unprecedented opportunity for candidates and citizens to engage in an interactive forum on the important issues confronting" New Jersey. Beginning in July and running through Election Day in November, the institute will submit questions to the candidates and then post their responses on its website.[19] As of October 6, 2006, responses to six questions have been posted (see External Links below).

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[edit] Recent allegations of past ethics violations

During 26 years in politics, Menendez has faced some unflattering editorials and reports in local newspapers. In the past, op-eds in the New York Times and Star-Ledger have complained of bossism by Menendez, claiming he runs Hudson County as a political machine. [20][21][22] The Bergen Record has made an issue of his campaign spending, claiming the majority of his recent spending is not for traditional campaign activities such as advertising[23]. Despite the allegations noted above, Menendez has never been charged or prosecuted for any crime related to his 26 year political political career. Indeed, a June 25 New York Times article reports that the charges of ethical misconduct conflict with historical accounts and records which portray Menendez as crusading against the very corruption of which he stands accused. [24]

On August 27, 2006, two Republican state lawmakers filed an ethics complaint against Menendez, alleging he broke conflict-of-interest rules when he collected more than $300,000 in rent over a period of nine years from a nonprofit agency which he aided in winning millions of dollars from federal funds. Menendez questioned the proximity of the complaints, based on events of 14 years ago, so close to the election: "We have seen an orchestrated series of leaks, bogus ethics complaints and outright fabrications since the beginning of this campaign."[25] The ethics complaint stated that Menendez's actions while a Congressman violated the ethics rules of the House of Representatives.[26] For his part, Menendez maintains that he received verbal clearance from the House Ethics Committee in 1994 before entering a lease agreement with the organization[25]. On September 8, Menendez identified Mark Davis as the committee lawyer whom he consulted. However, Roll Call reported that Davis left the ethics committee in 1993, prompting Menendez campaign spokesman Matt Miller to offer an alternate explanation: "It was his recollection that he talked to him about this, but it must have been someone else. It was 12 years ago."[27] Governor Corzine, who appointed Menendez in January to serve out the remaining year of his own Senate term, said the investigation "has the appearance of being less than objective"[25]. Meanwhile, in response to charges of Republican complicity in spurring the investigation, Tom Kean said his campaign "absolutely" did not have any contact at any point with the U.S. Attorney's Office regarding the probe[27].

On September 15, 2006, The Star-Ledger reported, "the same day state Sen. Tom Kean voted twice to let Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey keep a $40 million tax exemption, he collected $13,300 in contributions for his U.S. Senate race from 17 company executives and their family members.[28] Kean cast the votes on the final day of the fight over the 2005 state budget and on the day of those votes, records show Kean received $13,300 in campaign donations from the Horizon executives, including $4,100 from Horizon CEO and president William Marino and his wife, Paula. The news report noted, "Aides to Kean said there was no connection between the votes and the contributions."

On September 28, 2006, The Star-Ledger reported that Sen. Menendez had fired his closest political adviser for seeking favors on behalf of then-Representative Menendez. A tape recorded in 1999 reveals the adviser, Donald Scarinci, asking a Hudson County psychiatrist named Oscar Sandoval to hire another physician as a favor to Menendez. He also states that he had helped Davila Colon, who worked in Menendez's congressional office from 1992-1997, get a job with Carl Goldberg, a developer and big fundraiser for Bob Menendez. A spokesperson for the Menendez campaign stated that "Scarinci was using Menendez's name without his authorization or his knowledge."[17]

[edit] Issues

Menendez, while still in the House of Representatives, voted against the Iraq War Resolution of 2002. He has argued that, "even knowing that there were no weapons of mass destruction, Tom Kean Jr. has continually said he supports the war in Iraq and would have voted for it."[29] Kean responded that Menendez "has traditionally been on the fringe of his own party. The case [for war] was clearly made with people who had far better information than he did."[29]

The Sierra Club, which had endorsed both candidates in some of their past races, endorsed Menendez for the Senate, citing his "15-year, extremely strong record on many federal [environmental] issues -- often achieving a League of Conservation Voters voting record of 100%." [30]

[edit] Alleged Internet activity by Kean campaign associates

Democratic-advocacy site Blue Jersey alleged that a member of the Kean campaign was "astroturfing," posing as a disillusioned Democrat when posting comments critical of Menendez on the site. The Kean campaign denied the charges, but major newspapers (such as the New York Times and the Star-Ledger) reported that the IP address used to make the comments was identical to one used by the Kean campaign in their official emails. The Kean campaign could not explain this discrepancy. [31] [32] The same IP address was also used to make edits to Wikipedia pages related to the election.[33] [34]

[edit] Election Day vandalism

The Kean headquarters was vandalized during the night before the general election. Vandals chained and locked the doors to the headquarters and broke off keys within the locks, attempting to hinder the Kean campaign. The Menendez campaign has denied any involvement.[citation needed]

[edit] Polls

Since the publication of an August 4, 2006, Rasmussen poll showing Menendez ahead, 44% to Kean's 38%, Kean appeared to surge into the lead according to subsequent Zogby, Monmouth, Quinnipiac, and Fairleigh Dickinson polls, outpolling Menendez by varying differences within the margin of error. However, on the heels of an advertising blitz, Menendez has reclaimed the lead in the most recent FDU, Mason-Dixon, Gallup, and Zogby polling. In light of to the race's volatility, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, Congressional Quarterly, and pundit Larry Sabato shifted the race from "Leans Democratic" to "Toss-Up" or "No Clear Favorite" in their early September revisions despite the state's historically strong Democratic tilt.[35][36][37]

New Jerseyans had not seen a summer poll with a Republican leading in a race for United States Senator since 1972, when incumbent Clifford Case led former Congressman Paul Krebs by a 44%-22% margin. (Case won the race 63%-35%.) Here are some past summer polling numbers from the Eagleton Institute archive:

  • 1990: Incumbent Bill Bradley led Christine Todd Whitman by 46 points, 62%-16%. Bradley won in November by a 50%-47% margin.
  • 1994: Incumbent Frank Lautenberg was ahead of Assembly Speaker Chuck Haytaian by a 55%-29% margin, and won 50%-47%.
  • 1996: In the race between two Congressmen for Bradley's open seat, Democrat Bob Torricelli led Republican Dick Zimmer by eight points, 39%-31%. Torricelli won, 53%-43%.
  • 2000: Competing for Lautenberg's open seat, former Goldman Sachs CEO Jon Corzine had an eight point lead over GOP Congressman Bob Franks, 39%-31%. Corzine won the seat, 50%-47%.
  • 2002: Incumbent Bob Torricelli led Republican Douglas Forrester by fourteen points, 43%-29%. By the end of September, Forrester had seized the lead and Torricelli withdrew. Frank Lautenberg entered the race in his place, and won the seat by ten points, 54%-44%. [38]

A September 2006 SurveyUSA poll showed Menendez's approval rating at 40% and disapproval rating at 40% with 20% undecided, resulting in a net approval of 0%[39][40].

[edit] Polling

Source Date Menendez (D) Kean Jr. (R)
OnPoint Polling and Research November 6, 2006 50% 41%
Quinnipiac November 6, 2006 48% 43%
Strategic Vision (R) November 6, 2006 49% 42%
USA Today/Gallup November 5, 2006 50% 40%
Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy November 5, 2006 48% 41%
Monmouth University/Gannett November 5, 2006 45% 42%
WNBC/Marist Poll November 4, 2006 50% 42%
Rasmussen November 3, 2006 48% 43%
Fairleigh Dickinson/PublicMind November 2, 2006 48% 38%
Reuters/Zogby International November 2, 2006 49% 37%
Rutgers/Eagleton November 2, 2006 46% 42%
Zogby Interactive October 31, 2006 48.7% 42.8%
Quinnipiac October 31, 2006 49% 44%
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation October 31, 2006 51% 44%
Strategic Vision (R) October 31, 2006 43% 42%
Rasmussen October 30, 2006 49% 44%
Research 2000 October 29, 2006 48% 42%
CBS News/New York Times October 26, 2006 40% 39%
Rasmussen October 25, 2006 45% 45%
Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal (D) October 23-25, 2006 45% 36%
Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg October 24, 2006 45% 41%
Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC October 24, 2006 45% 42%
Monmouth University October 22, 2006 48% 39%
Zogby Interactive October 19, 2006 44.8% 47.1%
Rasmussen October 14, 2006 42% 39%
Quinnipiac October 12, 2006 49% 45%
USA Today/Gallup October 6, 2006 46% 43%
Reuters/Zogby October 5, 2006 46% 35%
Fairleigh Dickinson October 5, 2006 46% 39%
Strategic Vision (R) October 5, 2006 41% 46%
Mason-Dixon/MSNBC October 2, 2006 44% 41%
WNBC/Marist Poll September 30, 2006 37% 42%
Zogby Interactive September 28, 2006 46.6% 40.9%
Rutgers/Eagleton September 28, 2006 45% 44%
Rasmussen September 25, 2006 40% 41%
Monmouth University September 24, 2006 38% 44%
Quinnipiac September 20, 2006 45% 48%
Strategic Vision (R) September 14, 2006 40% 44%
Zogby Interactive September 11, 2006 40.4% 40.2%
Rasmussen August 31, 2006 39% 44%
Fairleigh Dickinson August 30, 2006 39% 43%
Zogby Interactive August 28, 2006 43.3% 40.5%
Strategic Vision (R) August 17, 2006 42% 40%
Rasmussen August 4, 2006 44% 38%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) August 2, 2006 38% 39%
Zogby Interactive July 24, 2006 44.8% 39.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson July 20, 2006 43% 40%
Quinnipiac July 17, 2006 38% 40%
Monmouth University July 17, 2006 38% 37%
Strategic Vision (R) July 12, 2006 43% 37%
Rasmussen June 27, 2006 46% 40%
Rutgers/Eagleton June 23, 2006 42% 38%
Zogby Interactive June 21, 2006 41.0% 40.2%
Strategic Vision (R) June 16-18, 2006 38% 36%
Quinnipiac June 7-13, 2006 43% 36%
Rasmussen May 26, 2006 37% 40%
Strategic Vision (R) May 12-14, 2006 35% 35%
Quinnipiac April 18-24, 2006 40% 34%
Rasmussen April 18, 2006 36% 43%
Strategic Vision (R) April 14, 2006 32% 34%
Fairleigh Dickinson April 6, 2006 38% 42%
Rutgers/Eagleton April 4, 2006 40% 35%
Rasmussen March 31, 2006 39% 41%
Zogby Interactive March 31, 2006 40.1% 39.7%
Quinnipiac March 20, 2006 40% 36%
Strategic Vision (R) March 10, 2006 30% 32%
Fairleigh Dickinson March 6, 2006 42% 37%
Rasmussen February 14, 2006 39% 36%
Strategic Vision (R) February 8, 2006 28% 33%
Quinnipiac January 25, 2006 38% 36%
Rasmussen January 25, 2006 35% 42%
Fairleigh Dickinson January 16, 2006 25% 37%
Quinnipiac December 15, 2005 44% 38%
Rasmussen December 7, 2005 38% 34%
Quinnipiac November 22, 2005 41% 39%

[edit] Election results

2006 United States Senate election, Senate Class 1, New Jersey[41]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Bob Menendez (inc.) 1,200,843 53.3 +3.1
Republican Thomas Kean, Jr. 997,775 44.3 -2.8
Libertarian Len Flynn 14,637 0.7 +0.4
Marijuana Edward Forchion 11,593 0.5 n/a
Independent J.M. Carter 7,918 0.4 +0.2
Independent N. Leonard Smith 6,243 0.3 n/a
Independent Daryl Brooks 5,138 0.2 n/a
Socialist Workers Angela Lariscy 3,433 0.2 +0.1
Socialist Gregory Pason 2,490 0.1 +0.0
Majority 203,068 9.0
Turnout 2,250,070
Democratic hold Swing 3.26
Election results by county.
Election results by county.

[edit] References

  1. ^ New Jersey Election Deadlines, Politics1.com, accessed June 7, 2006
  2. ^ S&P/Citigroup Global Equity Index Group, accessed July 2, 2006
  3. ^ N.J. GOP Senate Candidate Faces Threat in June Primary, FoxNews, April 25, 2006
  4. ^ Long-shot for U.S. Senate says online networking ‘for campaigning only’, Trentonian, August 28, 2006
  5. ^ Cheney, but no candidate, at fundraiser, United Press International, March 21, 2006
  6. ^ Tom Kean for U.S. Senate press release
  7. ^ New Jersey Pro-Life Group Backs John Ginty for Senate, Abortion Pols Lead, LifeNews.com, April 28, 2006
  8. ^ Daily Record, May 3, 2006
  9. ^ Senate long-shot stands firm on policing border, The Record, May 25, 2006
  10. ^ APPROVAL RATINGS FOR ALL 50 GOVERNORS AS OF 09/21/06
  11. ^ APPROVAL RATING FOR GEORGE W BUSH AS OF 08/15/06
  12. ^ Fred Snowflack, "Some are confusing Kean Jr. with his dad", Daily Record (Morristown), September 6, 2006
  13. ^ Republican Senate.org (April 10, 2006)
  14. ^ "Kean draws Laura Bush for Campaign Fundraiser", Star-Ledger, June 10, 2006
  15. ^ Josh Gohlke, "Kean ducks confrontation", The Record (Bergen County), June 17, 2006
  16. ^ "GOP's Kean Plans 'Swift Boat'-Style Film", Associated Press, June 30, 2006
  17. ^ a b "Menendez declines national debate", The Star-Ledger, September 14, 2006
  18. ^ "Kean demands adding a national TV debate vs. Menendez", The Star-Ledger, October 4, 2006
  19. ^ Hall Institute of Public Policy - NJ, accessed September 12, 2006
  20. ^ "New Jersey's New Senator", The New York Times, December 9, 2005
  21. ^ Tom Moran, The Past May Haunt Future For Menendez, The Star-Ledger, November 23, 2005
  22. ^ Raymond Hernandez, "Menendez's Moment of Truth", The New York Times, January 16, 2005
  23. ^ Herb Jackson, "Fund Raising Is Menendez’s Meal Ticket," The Record (Bergen County), March 12, 2006
  24. ^ Jim Dwyer, "New Jersey Senator's Rival Faults Him in 80's Corruption Case, but History Disagrees", New York Times, June 25, 2006
  25. ^ a b c Menendez questions timing of reported federal probe, Press of Atlantic City, September 8, 2006
  26. ^ "Pair accuse Menendez in conflict", The Star-Ledger, August 28, 2006
  27. ^ a b "Menendez defends himself, denounces timing of probe", The Star-Ledger, September 9, 2006
  28. ^ Deborah Howlett, "Democrats question donations to Kean: Horizon gave $13,300 on day of a big vote", The Star-Ledger, September 15, 2006
  29. ^ a b "Garden State Grapple", from Newsweek Politics on MSNBC website, September 15, 2006
  30. ^ "Menendez Endorsed for US Senate", from The Jersey Sierran, October-December 2006
  31. ^ A Blog Suspects That an Aide to Kean Posted Jabs at Menendez, The New York Times, September 21, 2006
  32. ^ Kean aide denies a hand in blog hits on Menendez,Star-Ledger, September 21, 2006
  33. ^ Edits made by 70.90.20.85,Wikipedia, September 21, 2006
  34. ^ BUSTED: Why is the Kean-Jr. campaign lying to the media?, Blue Jersey, September 21, 2006
  35. ^ "2006 Senate Ratings", Cook Political Report, September 7, 2006
  36. ^ "Senate Balance of Power Scorecard Details", Congressional Quarterly, retrieved on September 15, 2006
  37. ^ "Sabato's Crystal Ball - 2006 Senate", Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, retrieved on September 15, 2006
  38. ^ Inside Edge - Politics NJ
  39. ^ SurveyUSA News Poll, SurveyUSA, September 18, 2006
  40. ^ APPROVAL RATINGS FOR ALL 100 U.S. SENATORS AS OF 09/26/06, SurveyUSA, September 26, 2006
  41. ^ Official List: Candidates for US Senate For November 2006 General Election, New Jersey Department of Law and Public Safety, Division of Elections, dated December 4, 2006. Accessed September 26, 2007.
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