United States Senate election in Montana, 2006
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The 2006 U.S. Senate Election for the state of Montana was held November 7, 2006. The filing deadline was March 23; the primary was held on June 6.
After a very close election, on November 9, incumbent Conrad Burns conceded defeat.[1] Democrat Jon Tester will represent Montana in the United States Senate from January 3, 2007 to January 3, 2013.
Burns was running for re-election to a fourth term in the United States Senate, where he served since 1989. Tester served as President of the Montana State Senate. He defeated John Morrison, the Montana State Auditor, in the June primary.
The race was expected to be close, due to Burns' previous narrow winning margins and recent political scandal involving him personally; Republican incumbents everywhere were facing more challenging races in 2006 due to the waning popularity of Congress and the leadership of President George W. Bush. In July 2006, the Rasmussen report viewed Burns as the "second most vulnerable Senator seeking re-election this year (Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum was still the most vulnerable)."[2]
Due to errors with polling machines the Montana count was delayed well into Wednesday 8 November. The race was too close to call throughout the night and many pundits predicted the need for a recount.
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[edit] Election results
Official results as of Tuesday, November 28. [3]
| 2006 United States Senate election, Montana | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
| Democratic | Jon Tester | 199,845 | 49.2 | +2.0 | |
| Republican | Conrad Burns (incumbent) | 196,283 | 48.3 | –2.3 | |
| Libertarian | Stan Jones | 10,377 | 2.6 | +0.4 | |
| Majority | 3,562 | 0.9 | |||
| Turnout | 406,505 | ||||
| Democratic gain from Republican | Swing | ||||
Just before 11:00 (MST) on November 8, Jon Tester was declared Senator elect for Montana in USA Today.[4] At 2:27 PM EST on November 8, CNN projected that Jon Tester will be the Senator elect for Montana. [5]
Under Montana law, if the margin of defeat is more than 0.25% but less than 0.5%, the losing candidate can request a recount if they pay for it themselves.[6] However, this election did not qualify for a recount because the margin was larger than 0.5%. Burns conceded the race on November 9, and congratulated Tester on his victory.[7]
The race was the closest Senate election of 2006 in terms of absolute vote difference; the closest race by percentage difference was the Virginia senate election.
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[edit] Incumbent
Burns was first elected as the junior United States Senator from Montana in 1988, when he defeated Democratic incumbent John Melcher in a close race, 51% to 48%. Burns was re-elected in a landslide, 70% to 30%, over Jack Mudd in the so called Republican Revolution year of 1994. In 2000, however, Burns faced well-financed farmer Brian Schweitzer whom he beat by only 51% to 47%. In 2004, Schweitzer was elected as Governor of Montana.
Burns appears to be much less popular than his Democratic colleague in the Senate, Max Baucus, who has served since 1978. In 2000, George W. Bush carried Montana 58% to 33% in the race for President, but Burns won by only 4%. Since the direct election of Senators began in 1913, Burns is only the second Republican Montana has elected to the U.S. Senate. Also, for thirty-two straight years, 1952 to 1984, Montana elected only Democratic Senators.
Burns' involvement in the Jack Abramoff scandal made him vulnerable. A SurveyUSA poll released in March 2006 found that 38% of Montanans approved of him, while 52% disapproved of him.[8] Polls against leading Democratic candidates had him below his challengers.
[edit] Republican candidate
- Conrad Burns, three-term U.S. Senator.[9]
[edit] Democratic candidate
- Jon Tester, an organic grain farmer from Big Sandy, Montana, and president of the Montana State Senate. He has a music degree from the University of Great Falls.[10][11]
[edit] Libertarian candidate
- Stan Jones, project/contract manager and commercial pilot.
[edit] Out of running
[edit] Republicans
- Bob Keenan who was Burns' main challenger was first elected to the Montana House in 1994 and served on the Bigfork School Board before that. He was elected to the state Senate in 1998 and served as Senate president in 2003 and 2004. Facing term limits in the state Senate, he withdrew from earlier plans to run again for a state House seat.[12]
- Bob Kelleher,[13] an attorney, liberal activist, and frequent candidate (including being a Green Party candidate).[14]
- Daniel Lloyd Neste Huffman of Great Falls, a car salesman and bingo parlor caller, who has lost three bids for office in Cascade County as a Reform Party candidate.[12][15]
Keenan ran a very low key campaign, and Burns won in a landslide.
[edit] Democrats
Early in the race, Clint Wilkes, a Bozeman resident, 55, and a newcomer to politics, had announced that he was running.[16][17] However, he did not file by the deadline.
Four Democratic candidates other than Tester did file by the deadline:[18]
- Robert Candee, a farmer who unsuccessfully ran for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. House in 2002.
- Ken Marcure, a man who has been living in Japan.[12]
- John Morrison, an attorney who was re-elected as the Montana State Auditor in November 2004. He also serves as Montana's Insurance and Securities Commissioner. He was the first to announce his candidacy, in April 2005.[19][20]
- Paul Richards, the owner of a PR consulting firm and a member of the Montana House of Representatives[21]
On May 31, 2006, Richards, citing the closeness of the race, and his own position (third) in the polls, withdrew from the race, and threw his support to Tester.[22]
Morrison started off strong in the race for the Democratic nomination for Senator, collecting $1.05 million as of the start of 2006, including $409,241 in the last three months of 2005.[23] but Morrison’s advantages in fundraising and name identification did not translate into a lead in the polls.[24] Later, the race was called a "deadlock,"[25] but Tester continued to gather momentum.
On primary night, June 6, 2006, Tester won by a 25-point margin despite polls indicating a close race between Morrison and him just before the election.
[edit] A race to watch
Senator Conrad Burns of Montana faced a strong challenge from current Governor Brian Schweitzer in 2000, being re-elected by a mere 3% in a state that went for Bush twice by margins of over 20%. This, combined with the increasing strength of the state Democratic party and accusations of ethical issues related to the Jack Abramoff scandal, made this a highly competitive race. The two major candidates vying for the Democratic nomination were State Auditor John Morrison and state Senate President Jon Tester. But Morrison's campaign was undermined by a scandal involving his affair with a woman whose fiancé was being investigated by Morrison's office, and Tester ended up winning the primary by a 61% to 35% margin, despite being outspent 2 to 1 by Morrison.
On March 22, 2006, one day before the filing deadline, Republican state Senate Minority Leader Bob Keenan announced that he would challenge Burns in the June 6, 2006 primary. A former Big Fork School Board member and tavern owner, Keenan claimed that Burns will be defeated if he's the nominee. Nevertheless, Burns won the primary with approximately 74% of the vote; Keenan attracted only 21% of support.
On July 27, Burns was forced to apologize after he confronted out of state firefighters who were preparing to leave Montana after helping contain a summer forest fire and directly questioned their competence and skill; Burns was strongly criticized.[26]
On August 31, in a letter faxed to the office of Montana governor Brian Schweitzer, Burns urged the governor, a Democrat, to declare a fire state of emergency and activate the Montana Army National Guard for firefighting. Schweitzer had already declared such a state of emergency on July 11 — thus, activating the Montana Army National Guard. He issued a second declaration on August 11. James Pendleton, a Burns spokesman, said the senator was "pretty sure" Schweitzer had already issued such a disaster declaration, but just wanted to make sure. "The genesis of the letter was just to make sure that all the bases were covered," Pendleton said. "This is not a political football. It’s just a cover-the-bases letter and certainly casts no aspersions on the governor."[27]
A survey by Rasmussen Reports indicated Tester increased his advantage over Burns from a 4 percentage-point lead in May to a 7-point lead, 50 percent to 43 percent, in July. A survey by Rasmussen Reports in September shows Tester leading Burns 52 percent to 43 percent.[28] In early August, CQPolitics changed its rating on the race from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."[29]
[edit] Polling
| Source | Date | Tester (D) | Burns (R) | Jones (L) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint Polling and Research | November 6, 2006 | 49% | 44% | |
| USA Today/Gallup | November 4, 2006 | 50% | 41% | |
| Rasmussen | November 3, 2006 | 50% | 46% | |
| Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy | November 3, 2006 | 47% | 47% | 1% |
| Reuters/Zogby | October 31, 2006 | 47% | 46% | 2% |
| Rasmussen | October 29, 2006 | 51% | 47% | |
| Harstad Strategic (D) | October 25, 2006 | 48% | 42% | |
| Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC | October 24, 2006 | 46% | 43% | |
| Montana State University-Billings | October 19, 2006 | 46% | 35% | |
| Rasmussen | October 18, 2006 | 48% | 46% | |
| Rasmussen | October 11, 2006 | 49% | 42% | |
| Reuters/Zogby | October 5, 2006 | 46% | 42% | |
| Mason-Dixon | October 1, 2006 | 47% | 40% | 3% |
| Rasmussen | September 20, 2006 | 50% | 43% | |
| Rasmussen | September 13, 2006 | 52% | 43% | |
| Gallup | September 5, 2006 | 48% | 45% | |
| Lake Research (D) | August 10, 2006 | 44% | 37% | |
| Rasmussen | August 10, 2006 | 47% | 47% | |
| Rasmussen | July 11, 2006 | 50% | 43% | |
| Lake Research (D) | June 20-26, 2006 | 43% | 42% | |
| Mason Dixon | May 28, 2006 | 45% | 42% | |
| Rasmussen | May 16, 2006 | 48% | 44% | |
| Ayres McHenry & Associates (R) | May 2, 2006 | 48% | 42% | |
| Rasmussen | April 15, 2006 | 44% | 47% | |
| Rasmussen | March 20, 2006 | 46% | 43% | |
| Rasmussen | February 13, 2006 | 46% | 46% | |
| Rasmussen | January 11, 2006 | 45% | 45% | |
| Mason Dixon | December 24, 2005 | 35% | 49% | |
| Rasmussen | September 8, 2005 | 38% | 51% | |
| Mason Dixon | May, 2005 | 26% | 50% |
[edit] References
- ^ Sen. Burns Concedes Montana Race. NPR (2006-11-09).
- ^ Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election
- ^ "2006 Statewide General Canvass - November 7th". Montana Secretary of State (November 2006). Retrieved on 2006-11-28.
- ^ Democrat challenger takes Montana - USATODAY.com
- ^ Canvass points to Democratic control of Senate - CNN.com
- ^ 13-16-211. Recounts allowed if bond posted to cover all costs
- ^ http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2006/2006-11-09-burns-tester_x.htm
- ^ SurveyUSA News Poll #8541
- ^ http://www.conradburns.com
- ^ Jon Tester for U.S. Senate | Montana 2006
- ^ http://www.dscc.org/2006races/bios/tester
- ^ a b c helenair.com
- ^ Bob Kelleher for U.S. Senate
- ^ Politics1 - Online Guide to Montana Politics
- ^ helenair.com
- ^ Missoulian: Tester begins campaign for U.S. Senate seat
- ^ billingsgazette.com
- ^ Western Democrat: Western Senate Races, the heart of Swinging 2006 to the left
- ^ John Morrison Montana
- ^ http://www.dscc.org/2006races/bios/morrison/
- ^ Paul Richards, U.S. Senate 2006, Montana
- ^ BillingsGazette.com :: Richards: Tester is best choice
- ^ BillingsGazette.com :: Burns' fundraising nears $5 million; Morrison's hits $1 million
- ^ http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/05/mt_senate_race_to_take_on_emba.html
- ^ helenair.com
- ^ Conrad Burns Issues Apology for Altercation with Firefighters | Missoula | New West Network
- ^ helenair.com
- ^ Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election
- ^ http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/08/burns_edge_in_montana_senate_r.html
[edit] External links
- Jon Tester's official campaign site
- Conrad Burns' official campaign site
- "Montana Senator in Fight of Political Life," Associated Press, October 15, 2006
- Robert 'Bob' Candee's official campaign site
- Stan Jones' official campaign site
- Bob Keenan's official campaign site
- John Morrison's official campaign site
- Paul Richards' official campaign site
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee page on this election
| Preceded by 2002 Max Baucus |
Montana U.S. Senate elections 2006 |
Succeeded by 2008 |
