Tropical Meteorology Project
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The Tropical Meteorology Project is a research initiative at Colorado State University that studies weather patterns and systems in the tropics. It is best known for its annual predictions of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes expected to form each season in the North Atlantic Ocean. These predictions, issued in December, April and June (with mid-season updated issued in August, September and October), are written by Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates.
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[edit] Past predictions
Since at least 1994, the Tropical Meteorology Project team at Colorado State University has issued pre-season predictions in December, April and June for the number of named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes), hurricanes and intense hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5) expected to appear in the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Basin. These are one of many predictions issued for storms. Drawing on data presented at the Tropical Meteorolgy Project's website (for predictions), and the National Hurricane Center (for observed totals), the table that follows shows the historical accuracy of these predictions.[1][2]
| Season | Type | December Prediction |
April Prediction |
June Prediction |
Observed Storms |
December Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | Named storms | 14 | 17 | |||
| Hurricanes | 7 | 9 | ||||
| Intense hurricanes | 3 | 5 | ||||
| 2006 | Named storms | 17 | 17 | 17 | 10 | +7 |
| Hurricanes | 9 | 9 | 9 | 5 | +4 | |
| Intense hurricanes | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | +3 | |
| 2005 | Named storms | 11 | 13 | 15 | 28 | -17 |
| Hurricanes | 6 | 7 | 8 | 15 | -9 | |
| Intense hurricanes | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -4 | |
| 2004 | Named storms | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | -2 |
| Hurricanes | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | -1 | |
| Intense hurricanes | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | |
| 2003 | Named storms | 12 | 12 | 14 | 16 | -4 |
| Hurricanes | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | +1 | |
| Intense hurricanes | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| 2002 | Named storms | 13 | 12 | 11 | 12 | +1 |
| Hurricanes | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | +4 | |
| Intense hurricanes | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | |
| 2001 | Named storms | 9 | 10 | 12 | 15 | -6 |
| Hurricanes | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -3 | |
| Intense hurricanes | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | |
| 2000 | Named storms | 11 | 11 | 12 | 15 | -4 |
| Hurricanes | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | -1 | |
| Intense hurricanes | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| 1999 | Named storms | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | +2 |
| Hurricanes | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | +1 | |
| Intense hurricanes | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 |
[edit] References
- ^ The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University
- ^ National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center: Archive of Hurricane Seasons
[edit] See also
[edit] External links
- The Tropical Meteorology Project
- Seasonal outlook for Western Australia issued by the Bureau of Meteorology
- Seasonal outlook for the Northern Territory issued by the Bureau of Meteorology
- Seasonal outlook for Queensland issued by the Bureau of Meteorology
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