Talk:Tropical cyclone seasonal forecasting

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[edit] Todo

It needs an international view. The BOM issues seasonal outlooks for all three regions of their area, and CSU isn't the only one to do so. As it stands this article is too CSU-centric, and is too much useless cruft of CSU forecast errors, which we don't need to list. – Chacor 04:57, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

The table would be better served as prose in the article, by the way. There is no real need to list the forecast error for every season. Maybe a short text blurb about how often they're correct with their forecasts would do. – Chacor 05:05, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

Don't agree. I think that the table works fine, it is sourced, and other sources will be added over time. futurebird 05:08, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

There is more to TC seasonal outlooks than CSU ones. To use a table of CSU forecasts is giving undue weight. – Chacor 05:10, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

Are other sources that different? What other sources should be added? futurebird 05:13, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

It is undue weight, but the solution to undue weight is to add other sources, not remove the existing source.The Interloafer 05:17, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

That isn't my point. There is simply no need for this table. If people wanted to know CSU's forecast errors they'd just go look up the CSU page themselves. We're an encyclopedia, and a list of forecast errors is arguably hardly encyclopedic. – Chacor 05:20, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

Indeed, the table's unnecessary. We have this information in the various season articles. It doesn't need to be replicated here. --Coredesat 05:21, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

Yes but the various season articles don't show the data together in one convenient place. And as for CSU's website, that's an external site, there's no guarantee that the information will be there in perpetuity, and it's not organized in one convenient place as it was in the table that had been here. The Interloafer 05:44, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

The website provides no summary. The table helps organize the data. futurebird 05:23, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

I don't dispute that an international view is needed. I added the CSU predictions as a start in the hopes that it would encourage other users to add the predictions of other forecasters. These prections should be added and would attract a lot of interest. I'm glad to leave out the error column.The Interloafer 05:09, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

• If the table stays (I have no opinion about that), then please add NOAA information, info from Tropical Storm Risk, and by any other reputable organizations that provide forecasts for other tropical cyclone basins. Titoxd^{(?!? - cool stuff)} 05:25, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

I think it's a great example of how these predictions work. I support adding NOAA information. futurebird 05:34, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

Alternatively, the table would fit in an article about CSU's tropical project. – Chacor 05:28, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

Is there such an article? It could go there too, but I think it's right on topic for this article. futurebird 05:34, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

This article is not "Colorado State University hurricane forecasting". – Chacor 05:35, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

well then help out by adding other sources instead of hiding others hard work. futurebird 05:37, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

That's a good suggestion. I guess I'll create a page on CSU's tropical project unless someone else does so first. (Please, leave the table in notes for now so I can move it over there.) Meanwhile, the question stands as to whether it remains useful to have a page where historical data on the many tropical cyclone seasonal predictions can be viewed in one place. I think such a page would be useful. The Interloafer 05:48, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

A good place to begin looking would be here. Titoxd^{(?!? - cool stuff)} 05:27, 14 March 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Name change

Just asking, why the name change from "hurricane predictions"? futurebird 05:34, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

The article name was changed because, according to the text of the article at the time, the intent of the article was to discuss seasonal forecasting for all tropical cyclone basins. However, the language used was specific to the Atlantic basin, therefore it was moved to the current name (which reflects a worldwide view) - ignoring all the other basins would constitute systemic bias. --Coredesat 05:37, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

Okay. that seems fair. futurebird 05:37, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

[edit] The table is interesting

It shows important trends and I think many users will find it worth looking at. I don't not understnd why it is commented out? I changed the section heading to make it seem less like these are the only numbers out there. futurebird 05:36, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

The table is commented out because of points brought up in the original "Todo" discussion. It doesn't represent a worldwide view, gives CSU way too much undue weight, and all the information is in the various season articles. --Coredesat 05:38, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

I think that it makes sense to add information rather than hide what we have to balance the article. futurebird 05:46, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

Let's remove the table, it is long and uninteresting. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 71.112.7.212 (talk) 06:25, 13 March 2007 (UTC).