Talk:Toba catastrophe theory

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[edit] earlier conversations

Removing a garbage page full of errors written by a non-scientist. Biology is NOT a matter if personal opinion. This goes way beyond NPOV. Frankly, it is against Wikipedia policy to create a parallel Wikipedia within Wikipedia. If Stevertigo rejects the facts described on the many article we already have on the origin and evolution of humans, then he should go to those talk pages, and describe what changes he believes should be made. But it is totally against Wikipedia protocol to try and subvert the communal consensus process and create a parallel set of Wikipedia articles. RK

I'm not sure whose views this article describes, but it could be a valid addition to Wikipedia if properly attributed (in the article title as well as the text) rather than stated as fact. Deleting without first asking the author to fix his contribution seems harsh. Mkweise 15:05 Feb 22, 2003 (UTC)
NO, Mkweise. Wikipedia is an encyclopedia, and not the appropriate place for Stevertigo to create his own mythical theories of human history and race. This is science based NPOV encyclopedia. Stevertigo's peculiar theories of races and human history have no currency in the scientific community. Further, it is a gross violation of Wikipedia policy to deceitfully make an end-pass by the communal review process of all our articles by setting up parallel articles on a given topic. Wikipedians have not allowed this violation of NPOV before, and we should not change our policy now. RK
Wikipedia is a general encyclopedia, not an encyclopedia of science. Alternative theories and minoriy beliefs, even verifiably incorrect ones, are a matter of interest. There is no violation of NPOV as long as beliefs and theories are represented as such, and not as fact. Mkweise 15:33 Feb 22, 2003 (UTC)
You are way off base here. Stevertigo is making explicitly scientific claims - and his claims are wrong. Worse, he is bypassing the Wikipedia peer-review process. Many scientists already have set their "Watchpages" to follow our Wikipedia articles on human evolution and history, and Stevertigo is doing an end-run around them. How can an honest person like you not have a problem with this? RK

Um, Im not seeing the problem here besides the fact that this article doesn't describe some competing "theories". What is here certainly isn't unencyclopediac, although I guess it would be more POV if we included the theory that aliens created all life about 10,000 years ago. Susan Mason

The problem is that this is an encyclopedia, and not a personal webpage. Again, we have an obligation for us to discuss science and history in accord with the highest levels of academic standards. If we don't all follow this rule, then we descend to the level of Stevertigo who has never shown an ability to distibguish between his own personal theories and actual science, and who actually revels in the belief that his personal views matter more than peer-reviewed science. RK

RK, take a Valium. STV is not Clutch and neither is Susan. I have some difficulties with the entry myself, but thus far it contains nothing to justify those wild accusations you make, nor your confrontational tone. Just calm down a little, OK? Tannin 15:19 Feb 22, 2003 (UTC)

Tannin, please take the time to actually read the comments I made. This is an encyclopedia, not a personal web page, and we have scientific and academic standards we are all obligated to adhere to. If Stevertigo is unwilling to work with us on our science articles, then he must go elsewhere. There are rules, even on Wikipedia. RK
I read them already. If you calm down and stop abusing other contributors, maybe I'll read them again, and if it seems useful, respond to them. When aiming to persuade people to a point of view, it is counterproductive to fill your text with emotive terms like "garbage page", "full of errors", "subvert", "mythical theories", and "deceitfully". If you can focus on the content instead of the personalities for a while, what exactly, are you objecting to? Where is the "racial theory" here? (For that, I take it, is your real objection.) Tannin 15:57 Feb 22, 2003 (UTC)
RK - respectfully - I'm with Tannin (and not just because our usernames are similar). Your points would be better received if you dialed back your rhetoric a bit. --Tannerpittman 17:11, 15 February 2007 (UTC)

I've moved the article to a title that more accurately reflects the article so far. Can we all live with leaving it here while giving the author a fair chance to respond? Mkweise 16:56 Feb 22, 2003 (UTC)

I don't have any problem with an article on Toba catastrophe theory. (Though I suspect that this limited topic was not the intent of the original article.) RK
Well, not being a psychic I have no way of knowing unexpressed intent. But any intent to convince - rather than inform - the reader is out of place in an encyclopedia anyway. Mkweise 17:49 Feb 22, 2003 (UTC)
I agree with RK. It's better placed here. Tannin 00:01 Feb 23, 2003 (UTC)
Not sure what you mean, as right now the article is still at Toba catastrophe theory, where I moved it to. But if you want to move it somewhere else, that's fine with me. I just moved it here as an alternative to RK's solution of deleting it entirely. And, it looks to me to have since evolved into a pretty good article on a subject that wasn't previously covered. Mkweise 00:09 Feb 23, 2003 (UTC)
Sorry, I was unclear. I meant that I agreed with RK agreeing with you - the current location at Toba catastrophe theory is good, and the entry is shaping up. Tannin
I didnt start anything, by tossing this particular stone in the water, did I? I does, after all, contradict Creationism. :] -'Vert

[edit] How does the genetic evidence work?

The catastrophe supposedly created a population bottleneck. How can you tell that something like that happened if there are no survivors of the extinct genetic lines (by definition) to analyze? I think the article implies noticably small genetic drift in current lines as proof; but isn't that indistinquishable from human genetics starting out with low diversity? Are there fossils with recoverable DNA that do not match any current genetic line? (I'm not an expert; can fossils have recoverable DNA?)

--69.37.220.12 21:47, 21 Oct 2004 (UTC)

As I remember it: If you begin with a single individual (mito-Eve) and extrapolate to the present day, the mutation rate, combined with migration effects would lead to expections of a lot of diversity in mtDNA. They found unepectedly low diversity. The major bifucations due to migration are there, sure enough, but it's as if most of the smaller branches and nearly all of the twigs have been blasted off the family tree. So, after much head-scratching, and some inter-disciplinary consultation, they came up with this theory. (I don't know if other animal species suffered in a comparable way or not). Personally, I see two items, needing to be addressed:- 1) Mito-DNA codes for the structure of the organelle itself and the enzymes for converting carbohydrates to useable energy, which basically keep the cell alive. The potential for a mutation scoring a direct hit on enzyme code, leading to cell death (esp. in egg or sperm) would appear to be higher here than for nuclear DNA. Therefore the expected mutation rate needs to be reduced by a factor to account for the proportion which would be fatal to the cell (and thus not inheritable anyway). 2) Allowances need to be made for the consequences of any cultural preference for male offspring (even if confined to recent history). An 'all-sons' family effectively terminates a maternal mtDNA line, decreasing variety. An 'N daughters to get one son' family certainly helps to keep the male/female ratio in the population close to 50-50 but means multiple copies of the same mtDNA propagate, also contributing to reduced variety.

Unfortunately, fossilisation of bone takes a lot longer than it takes for DNA to spontaneously disintegrate. DNA from the teeth of mummies and burials only 1600+ years old is already fragmentary. The smaller they get the harder it is to find their true place on the map and draw any worthwhile conclusions, compared to modern samples. The best-case preservation scenario are the ice mummies, since chemical reaction rates are halved for every 10 deg C drop in temperature.EatYerGreens 15:51, 21 February 2007 (UTC)

Using only mtDNA or Y-chromosome alone to trace population bottleneck leads to wrong conclusions (see population bottleneck, founder effect, Mitochondrial Eve and Most recent common ancestor). This Ambrose paper claims to base its genetics evidences on work by Harpending (which I am not familiar with). Even though the paper talks mostly about Mitochondrial Eve, it seems to indicate that Harpending et al have used many other genes to trace coalescence points. And the paper seems to imply that all genes coalesce at around 70,000 years ago. This is in stark contrast to current academic consensus that there is no population bottleneck, as different genes show wildly different coalescent points. Fred Hsu 04:16, 17 March 2007 (UTC)

The implied (in your opinion) "all genes coalesce..." is an extravagant claim for the paper to make, since it sounds like they're referring to the entire genome. Surely, if the paper was mostly about mito-DNA (and, perhaps, some parts about Y-chromosomal genes) then what they should have been implying was "all sex-linked genes coalesce..." - a specific sub-set. The whole point of the divergence-rate studies is that the genes concerned have that provenence (females-only; males only), from which they can extrapolate a number of individuals of either sex (eg "as few as 2000 females"), which becomes the headline-grabber. So I am curious about the academic 'concensus' to which you refer - is that referring to coalescence points for genes which are neither mitochondrial nor Y-chromosome? EatYerGreens (talk) 23:04, 13 June 2008 (UTC)

One problem with "genetic evidence" is it is hardly verifiable and not necessarily unbiased (eg. towards the pharmaceutical industry). Since it hinges on the god-creation concept it has also always been a subject of personal interpretation more then most. That genetic divergence is shaped through bottlenecks is hardly a question. You only have to think of darwins finks. Obviously one big question is : how relevant are these genetical data then. It would be worth having a wiki on that. As far as raw paleological data goes it is very interesting what the recent afar finds will represent, if i am not mistaken a factor of genetic isolation and experimentation in a very early culture (presumably a bottleneck). This and the indication that oral tradition had spanned a longer then 100ka period, put a few questionmarks at the coincedences-theories. Also the article on wich most of this is based does not reach a stronger conclusion really, then that survival rates in tropic refuges would be 300% higher, it does not mention if that correlates with the genetic build up, so i guesstimate that people vye for exclusivity a bit to much in general on these subjects (adams, eves, technology, replacement rates/superiority).77.251.179.188 11:19, 27 August 2007 (UTC)

Well, there are a lot of words (and some interesting bits) but I cannot work out what point it is that you are trying to make there. The genetic evidence was, indeed, lapped up by the creationists at one time (mito-Eve and Y-Adam seemed to serve a purpose for them) but the evidence is more frequently used to club them over the head, since "mito-Eve and Y-Adam never met", as the headline once put it (they lived in eras several thousand years apart). In no way do I see the gathering of this evidence as ever hinging on a god-concept - they set out to characterise human genetics first and foremost and stumbled across this unexpected lack of variety in mitochondrial and Y-chromosome DNA. This catastrophe theory is merely an adjunct to it - an attempt to explain away the anomaly. With more time and more thought, other theories may emerge as to the cause and the Toba thing may be reduced to a historical footnote. EatYerGreens (talk) 23:25, 13 June 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Possible Errata

"Some geological evidence and computed models support the plausibility of the Toba catastrophe theory, and genetic evidence suggests that all humans alive today, despite their apparent variety, are descended from a very small population (see mitochondrial Eve). Using the average rates of genetic mutation, some geneticists have estimated that this population lived at a time coinciding with the Toba event." At the end of the first sentence, the reference (see Mitochondrial Eve) should be edited to (see Y-chromosomal Adam). Under the Mitochondrial Eve article, Eve is believed to have lived about 150,000 years ago. That would predate the Toba catastrophe event by another 75,000 years. Whereas, in the case of Y-chromosomal Adam it is stated, he probably lived between 60,000 and 90,000 years ago. This time frame agrees more with the time of the Toba catastrophe. --Free Citizen 13:53, 29 Dec 2004 (UTC)

I agree with Free Citizen that the link should be changed to Y-chromosomal Adam and will do so in the article. The section below is not written by me and I'm not sure if the author was responding to Free Citizen.

--Finbar 01:33, 18 October 2005 (UTC)

I changed the link to Y-Chromosomal Adam to a link on Population bottleneck which is a better explaination.

-- Finbar 12:08, 18 October 2005 (UTC)

I wouldnt call the article garbage its based on genetic scientific facts,the mitochondrial eve theory is well documented as is the MRCA theory all genetic lines lead to a single person that lived 150000 years ago,there must be a reason for this why do you seem so convinced it a "myth"? I think the real myth is your own ability to think.

The problem is people who would use the Mitochondrial Eve theory to leap to the assumption that the Bible's version of things is correct. Otherwise, I at least see no problem with it. In fact, the article on the theory takes care of that difficulty I see by very carefully explaining that the theory doesn't mean that ME was the only woman alive in her time. So no worries there. Also, your criticism seemed reasonable right up until that last jab at his ability to think that you couldn't resist throwing in. -Andy

Obvious error: one (1) gigaton is not more than 3000x the amount of 350mt (Mt. St. Helens) - please check against the eruption of Mt. St. Helens. Was 1000gt meant? -mkb

1000gT was likely meant, as Crater Lake (Mt Mazama) exceeded 1 gT that I recall, much more recently.Mzmadmike 21:17, 10 April 2007 (UTC)
Also, are there reductions in other species to support this? It couldn't have affected only humans.Mzmadmike 21:18, 10 April 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Ice Age?

I am wondering, is this supposed to be describing the ice age man apparently went through a while ago, or would that be a different event? The drop in temperature seems to imply that... sort of like what the old dinosaurs went through but a bit less extreme? Tyciol 19:04, 28 February 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Lake Toba

Lake Toba linked to this article as the "main article" about the eruption. Since that's not what this article is about (directly), I've changed it so that the discussion of this theory links to this article, inline.[1] If anyone thinks that's a bad idea, and that the purpse of this article is really to discuss the eruption 75,000 years ago in general, then feel free to put it back and discuss your reasoning on the talk page. Thanks -Harmil 07:39, 6 October 2006 (UTC)

[edit] How powerful?

If Toba was 1 GT, and Mount St. Helens claims 350 MT, this is more like a factor of 3, not 3,000. So which figure is wrong? Mdwh 03:29, 17 March 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Migration pattern?

How is it possible to migrate from Africa to Australia without passing through the Middle East or fertile cresent? Surely we aren't suggesting a boat trip across the Indian Ocean? The only thing I can think of is that the article is suggesting humans passed through the FC but for some reason never settled there until after the migratory population had reached Australia. This seems implauisble to say the least.138.77.2.130

I was thinking the same thing. How would they move "...first to Arabia and India and onwards to Indochina and Australia, and later to the Fertile Crescent and the Middle East."? How can they move to India without passing through the Middle East? And isn't Arabia a part of the Middle East? Someone needs to clarify this. Parsecboy 00:48, 11 June 2007 (UTC)
Maybe there's a difference between a migratory settlement and a migratory route. They could have passed through the Fertile crescent en route to other countries, only settling there later than the longer migrations. Needs checking for sure. Julia Rossi 06:16, 19 August 2007 (UTC)

[edit] "Theory"?

Is it fair, really, to call this a theory? Should this perhaps be under "Toba catastrophe hypothesis"? DS 13:04, 6 June 2007 (UTC)

They shade into each other. What's the big deal? --Michael C. Price talk 20:03, 6 June 2007 (UTC)
The big deal is creationists who say "evolution's Just A Theory". DS 00:15, 7 June 2007 (UTC)
So? They're morons. --Michael C. Price talk 05:52, 7 June 2007 (UTC)
Granted, but we really shouldn't misuse the terminology. DS 13:28, 9 June 2007 (UTC)
But that's the irony of the situation: "theory" and "hypothesis" shade into each other. When a creationist says that evolution is "just a theory" they reveal their scientific incompetence. We don't have to be concerned with such idiots here, and we shouldn't allow them to drive the language, no matter how indirectly. --Michael C. Price talk 16:16, 9 June 2007 (UTC)
I do agree with you, but let's remain civil, ok? There's no need to call anyone a moron or an idiot, no matter how poorly educated they may be. Parsecboy 00:50, 11 June 2007 (UTC)
Point taken about civility. About the article -- "theory" is better than "hypothesis" since there is some evidence (genetics and archeology) to support it; "hypothesis" would suggest that it is "just an idea" without any data either to support or refute it. However if you wish to describe it as an hypothesis and a theory I wouldn't object.--Michael C. Price talk 13:48, 11 June 2007 (UTC)
I do agree that it should be labeled as a theory, not a hypothesis. There is, as you said, evidence to support it, so it's not just a hypothesis. Parsecboy 15:55, 11 June 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Again?

If we worked out that this was going to happen again, could we stop it? Or would we lose 99% of six billion? — Chameleon 12:52, 15 August 2007 (UTC)

You mean if a similar event was going to happen again, could we do anything? Well I'd say, yes and no. Firstly I don't think there's any known way of stopping or even postponing a volcanic eruption (and the bigger it is the less likely). So all we could really do is prepare, if we knew about it years in advance (which seems probable), then we could predict it and perhaps make it less devastating to the human population. I guess the main problem, would be massive crop failures for years on end, which would cause mass famine. One thing to do might be to store and preserve food in the years running up to the eruption and then attempt to disseminate it on a basis of strict rationing during the "lean" years. I guess it depends how severs the conditions are, but almost certainly millions would die, no matter what. If it was REALLY bad, what you'd have to do is build some giant underground bunker, to shelter as many people as possible, and store enough food and resources to survive there, for however long it takes for the environment to return to normal and then rebuild. I'm just putting out ideas off the top of my head here, I don't know, maybe it wouldn't be as bad as I'm imagining, or maybe it'd be worse. Anyway it's some interesting speculation, maybe they should make a movie out of it (if they haven't already). --Hibernian 01:11, 16 August 2007 (UTC)
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_without_a_summer --Frunobulax (talk) 20:08, 13 March 2008 (UTC)

Given that the modern human population boom has occurred over such a relatively short period of time, such an event resulting in billions of casualties is not unthinkable. Despite the fact that humans are large-bodied consumers, complete human extinction is an unlikely result due to their oft-celebrated behavioral adaptability, unless some unprecedent event devastates the first-order producers. The most interesting aspect of such a hypotheized catastrophe, in my opinion, is that the resulting isolation of the surviving human populations could catalyze speciation in the human lineage. --129.81.157.169 14:27, 24 October 2007 (UTC)

The Yellowstone Caldera is a good candidate for a Toba-like eruption, and it might be good if it did. If it erupts soon enough, it could reverse global warming, which is the biggest threat faced by life today. Negritos and other masters of Late Stone Age technology should be able to survive, though whatever stories they pass on would likely not be believed by future generations. But no matter--they won't find any easily accessible coal or oil to start it all over again. Alas, Peter Ward (paleontologist) in Under a Green Sky: Global Warming, the Mass Extinctions of the Past, and What They Can Tell Us About Our Future (2007) ISBN 9780061137921 0061137928; says that climate change — the same global warming that occurs today — brought on four out of five major extinction events. (Reviewer Doug Brown goes a bit further, averring This Is How the World Ends.) Scientists at the Universities of York and Leeds also warn that the fossil record supports evidence of impending mass extinction, according to this Science Daily release of Oct. 24, 2007. On the Beach would only need up-dating to show life (and death) Under a Green Sky. Analog Science Fiction and Fact has already run stories of what life might be like trying for humans trying to survive in greenhouses as closed ecological systems that make the effort appear commendable, but futile. As did Biosphere 2 Pawyilee —Preceding comment was added at 15:29, 25 October 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Index gauge

Near the link for Volcanic Explosivity Index the copy says 8 is "mega-colossal" on this index. Following the link the graph shows "very large", so maybe "colossal" would be enough. Mega colossal sounds like an enthusiastic exaggeration in this context. If no-one objects I'll edit then. Julia Rossi 06:12, 19 August 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Name of the Late Pleistocene Toba eruption?

Does this eruption have any specific name? I mean like we don't say "Taupo eruption" but "Oruanui eruption" to point specificly on the eruption that occured 26,500 years ago. Does the Lake Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago have a similar kind of name? ––Bender235 14:44, 20 August 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Climate change

I moved the following addition by User:Pawyilee to article, to this talk page. Fred Hsu 12:26, 7 September 2007 (UTC)

Climate Change Spurred Human Evolution by Andrea Thompson, LiveScience Staff Writer, posted: 06 September 2007 12:13 pm ET; information that may have a bearing on this article, but has not yet been evaluated for inclusion.

[edit] See Also

http://www.andaman.org/BOOK/originals/Weber-Toba/ch5_bottleneck/textr5.htm http://www.andaman.org/BOOK/originals/Weber-Toba/textr.htm

Pawyilee 11:43, 9 September 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Migration

I may have jumped the gun in the citation I just added to Migration. The paragraph as presently written is better supported by the link (with map) that I just added to External links Out Of Africa -- Bacteria, As Well: Homo Sapiens And H. Pylori Jointly Spread Across The Globe. Pawyilee 15:49, 20 October 2007 (UTC)

New Research Confirms 'Out Of Africa' Theory Of Human Evolution ScienceDaily (May 10, 2007). This article includes a migratory map, a paragraph on Related Information: "Australia's archaeological record provides several apparent inconsistencies with the “Out Of Africa” theory..."; and also has links to other articles pertinent to this subject. Pawyilee 16:45, 20 October 2007 (UTC)

[edit] photo contrast

Does somebody want to adjust the contrast or brightness of the picture as I think it is very dark! Regards, 122.148.173.37 (talk) 23:32, 14 March 2008 (UTC)

Done. I will upload the image atop the existing one. - Arcayne (cast a spell) 20:38, 19 March 2008 (UTC)
Er, actually, I've never uploaded an image via WikiCommons before, and would prefer not to bollix matter up. Can someone let me know on my talk page how to do so without clusterfucking things up? - Arcayne (cast a spell) 20:44, 19 March 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Modern humans survived unscathed?

I'm about to head back to the UK from the US so don't have time to work on this, but I've added a mention and 2 references.--Doug Weller (talk) 13:36, 20 April 2008 (UTC)