User talk:Sln3412
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
[edit] In general
I've tried to put here information, critiques, suggestions and babbling that don't belong anywhere but on my talk page. I need to clean it up, but mostly it's just stream of conciousness. Hopefully, if you are looking at this, you'll see I'm not a total idiot, but rather an unfocused one.
Note also I don't usually spell check or grammer check, but just write as I think about things.... Duh! :)
[edit] The Earth's temperature compared to local variation of 30-100 F
If you compare the mean temperature anomalies from the GHCN-ERSST data set from 1880-2005 and chart them on a scale as if you lived in a place where it was 30 degrees F in the Winter and 100 degrees F in the Summer, this is what global warming looks like to you:
[edit] Plotted on a 10 degree scale
High point .6 degrees C (4.3%) over average
Low point .73 degrees C (5.2%) under average
Trend rose .7 degrees C (5%) from 1880 to 2005
[edit] Highest and lowest temperatures for the period
I messed up and this is only the January figures, not the entire year. You get the idea I hope.
Given the fact that any month or year is about the same as any other, especially in light of the recent adjustment for 6 years of US data, no I probably won't get to it some day, nor do I need to, I don't think. But you can chart it here for yourself:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gcag/GCAGts?dat=BLEND&SYST=TS&TS=6
Or you can just get the entire 1880 to 2006 Jan-Dec chart here:
As you'll see, the global anomaly trend is .04 degrees centigrade (from absolute anomalies of -.4 C to +.5 C) over the period in question.
Make sure you know where the numbers are actually from, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States Department of Commerce, run by Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., U.S. Navy (Ret.) the Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator.
This is the source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gcag/gcagmerged.html
That page covers the merged land-sea record, and has links to the GHCN for land and ERSST for sea.
[edit] IPCC WGII Technical Summary 1.2 quoted
WGII of the IPCC Technical Summary: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
- Disclaimer at start of Technical Summary
This summary was accepted but not approved in detail at the Sixth Session of IPCC Working Group II (Geneva, Switzerland • 13-16 February 2001). “Acceptance” of IPCC reports at a session of the Working Group or Panel signifies that the material has not been subject to line-by-line discussion and agreement, but nevertheless presents a comprehensive, objective, and balanced view of the subject matter.
First paragraph of section 1.2
- 1.2. What is Potentially at Stake?
- Human activities—primarily burning of fossil fuels and changes in land cover—are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents or properties of the surface that absorb or scatter radiant energy. The WGI contribution to the TAR—Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis—found, “In the light of new evidence and taking into account the remaining uncertainties, most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.” Future changes in climate are expected to include additional warming, changes in precipitation patterns and amounts, sea-level rise, and changes in the frequency and intensity of some extreme events.
- Oreskes: "Human activities ... are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents ... that absorb or scatter radiant energy. ... [M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" [p. 21 in (4)].
- 4. J. J. McCarthy et al., Eds., Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001).
[edit] Oreskes Essay paraphrased by paragraph, no comments
If there’s a lack of disagreement (which later becomes “consensus”) by a (later defined) scientific community that humans influence climate change; that shows climate science is not highly uncertain.
Scientific consensus is shown by the reports of a intergovernmental entity know as the IPCC. Quotes some of WG II (Impact and Adaptation) technical summary 1.2 ‘What is potentially at stake?’ (edited) as being evidence of an unequivocal statement by the IPCC that there is consensus of scientific opinion that humans influence climate change.
An NAS report agrees. The report asks if the IPCC is correct in its summary about professional scientific thinking and the report answers yes.
The AMS, AGU and Science magazine’s AAAS have issued statements there is compelling evidence humans influence climate change.
These reports and statements are gone over a lot, so they probably reflect the views of the members (which would be the scientific community) of these organizations. But the organizations might quash dissenters. So to test that idea, we go look at some abstracts in the ISI database searched for with “climate change” and find 928.
75% either agreed or didn’t disagree that there was a lack of disagreement by the scientific community that humans influence climate change. 25% had no view on it, and none disagreed.
None of the papers argued climate change was natural.
We prove that published scientists agree with the statements of their groups. Some people incorrectly think that climate scientists don’t agree with each other.
The consensus might be wrong, we can’t blame anyone for not acting. But we understand humans change the climate so we should do something about it or we’ll look bad to our descendants.
We don’t understand all the details, and we should keep researching the dynamics of climate. What to do about climate change is not answered. But scientists don’t disagree humans change the climate. Climate scientists keep telling us that and we should listen.
[edit] Links
-Realclimate blog about the consensus
-TCS Daily article on the essay and blog
-The Economics of Climate Change Volume I: Report
-Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change
-2000 Year Temperature Comparison
-Holocene Temperature Variations
-Get off the fence over global warming
[edit] Oreskes Essay, comments on certain points
Comments on the essay:
- Some corporations whose revenues might be adversely affected by controls on carbon dioxide emissions have also alleged major uncertainties in the science.
- Such statements suggest that there might be substantive disagreement in the scientific community about the reality of anthropogenic climate change. This is not the case.
The first suggests that because these corporations have a possible motive to disagree, their contributions are not to be believed, in their entirety, simply because they have an interest.
The second suggests that searching for "climate change" (as originally published) or "global climate change" (as later corrected) is the same as looking for support of "anthropogenic climate change". Then that is linked to the conclusion that there is no 'substantive disagreement' (which is what?) by the 'scientific community' (which is whom?) to 'anthropogenic climate change' (which correlates how?).
- In its most recent assessment, IPCC states unequivocally that the consensus of scientific opinion is that Earth's climate is being affected by human activities...
That might be replaced by by the activities of plants and animals or by the influence of forests and oceans and volcanoes and so on, as is true about any system in this machine. This all ignores the fact that even some of the members of the IPCC do not totally agree with all the conclusions in total, as well as also making the claim that 'scientific opinion in general' is proven by what we've now found out by: Reviewing abstracts of published articles in the ISI database according to the section of science from the keywords global climate change. In addition, the assessment by the IPCC spoken of is not in the main body of the report, it is in the technical summary of Working Group II. Global climate change meaning what, exactly? The global climate is changing? Ah, yes. It indeed is.
- Others agree. The American Meteorological Society (6), the American Geophysical Union (7), and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) all have issued statements in recent years concluding that the evidence for human modification of climate is compelling (8).
Agreement does not constitute fact, no matter how prestigious (or not) those that are agreeing are. But to that statement; there is probably nobody who would not agree that the evidence for human "modification of" (impact on) on the climate is there. Any variable impacts the whole in some way. What exactly is the modification? This is very vague.
- The drafting of such reports and statements involves many opportunities for comment, criticism, and revision, and it is not likely that they would diverge greatly from the opinions of the societies' members. Nevertheless, they might downplay legitimate dissenting opinions. That hypothesis was tested by analyzing 928 abstracts, published in refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, and listed in the ISI database with the keywords "climate change" (9).
How exactly does reviewing those particular abstracts (or any abstracts) test if the reports and statements downplay anything? While it is probably true that "birds of a feather flock together" these three sentences are not "3 great things that go great together." At least you would think she'd get what she searched for correctly the three times in the essay they are used to apply to the search.
- Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position.
Please spell out someplace exactly what “the consensus position” is so we can know what we're looking for disagreement with. As well as what you looked at exactly. Provide us with a list of the abstracts, how you graded them, and how you excluded them. Further, it would be nice if we could know how searching for either “global climate change” or “climate change” or whatever you really searched for (since we know you removed certain abstracts) are the same as a large majority agreement (or really, the lack of disagreement) on “anthropogenic climate change”. That's not what you searched for. Also, why the search was not further refined by only looking at those created by climatologists, that would be nice to know too.
- Admittedly, authors evaluating impacts, developing methods, or studying paleoclimatic change might believe that current climate change is natural. However, none of these papers argued that point.
Nice of you to admit it. What does none of these papers arguing that point have anything to do with it, and why are these papers proof nobody reliable is arguing that point, even if it did have something to do with it?
- This analysis shows that scientists publishing in the peer-reviewed literature agree with IPCC, the National Academy of Sciences, and the public statements of their professional societies. Politicians, economists, journalists, and others may have the impression of confusion, disagreement, or discord among climate scientists, but that impression is incorrect.
How does 'scientists publishing in the peer-reviewed literature (more correctly put, the abstracts you searched through in the ISI under science and global climate change)' become 'agreement with the IPCC, the NAS and their professional societies' become 'confusion disagreement or discord among climate scientists'?
- The scientific consensus might, of course, be wrong. If the history of science teaches anything, it is humility, and no one can be faulted for failing to act on what is not known. But our grandchildren will surely blame us if they find that we understood the reality of anthropogenic climate change and failed to do anything about it.
Again, we have "scientific consensus". Where are we now again? And we are taught by science history to be humble, so if we don't do anything it's okay. But oh, my, let's not let our grandchildren down. Do we understand the reality of climate change, oh, excuse me, anthropogenic climate change, I mean, global climate change. Hey! Let's do something about it!
- Many details about climate interactions are not well understood, and there are ample grounds for continued research to provide a better basis for understanding climate dynamics. The question of what to do about climate change is also still open. But there is a scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change. Climate scientists have repeatedly tried to make this clear. It is time for the rest of us to listen.
Another impassioned plea.
We don't understand all the details. We should do more research to learn climate dynamics better. We don't know what to do about climate change.
Climate scientists have kept trying to tell us it's clear there's a scientific consensus that there is anthropogenic climate change and it's time we listen!!!!!!
[edit] Thoughts on the Peiser debacle
Reading the blogs and associated topics again, and then rereading the Deltoid blog on the abstracts again, wrote the following.
The original study was not duplicated. This is a given from the evidence.
Dr. Peiser searched a wider subject range of abstracts, and seems more to be an exercise in researching policy rather than science. Which probably has lead to most of the discussion. He does not admit the study in the essay wasn't really duplicated after all, nor that the abstracts are rather iffy to prove anything regardless. Most of his comments in the blog hurt him rather than help him.
The 34 abstracts are probably too old on the average to matter anyway, and they in large are pretty non-specific either way. More interesting (but maybe too old on average to matter anyway, either) would be how many of the others not here are specific that human activity causes our observed temperature increase. Or in other words, if lack of clear dissent provides evidence of clear endorcement. Or asking if either the essay or Peiser's comments on it are scientific at all in the first place.
A lot of time is spent on debating Peiser's honesty or motives, not if a certain collection of abstracts was a representative sample or not, nor what would (does) constitute a representative sample under what criteria.
Dr. Oreskes in her essay originally 1) reported incorrect search terms, 2) did not provide which part of the database she searched, and 3) did not give the criteria by which she judged an abstract not to be included. By and large, Peiser is attacked for using the wrong terms at first, or later for not knowing these points and/or not asking about them, when attempting to recreate.
At times questions of what a representative sample is, if the consensus (or not) proves (or doesn't) anything and similar subjects are mentioned, but not delved into in a major way, if at all.
New points made or new questions asked are usually ignored, where the details already discussed are gone back into instead.
A lot of the blog discussion seems to revolve around logical fallacy, constantly using various forms of argument by consensus, argument from authority, appeal to consequences, false dilemma, begging the question, non causa pro causa, faulty analogy, guilt by association and other red herrings, fallacy of propositional logic, fake precision, ad hominem...
- This is perhaps evidenced in various posts (paraphrased, incomplete and in somewhat a thread recreation rather than as a chronology):
-
- coop takes "greenhouse gasses acting as amplifiers" and turns it into "human-emitted greenhouse gases" acting as amplifiers in response to comments by Peiser and Eli Rabbit, after Peiser quotes a Geoscience Canada journal piece by Jan Veizer. Eli has some comments on the quote. Comments on the Veizer bit spread over the 3 pages off and on.
-
- Tall Dave remarks to Eli that Eli's claim of FUD by the denialists is what the alarmists are doing. Eli answers back that's what Tall is doing is FUD. Yelling says to Tall the denialists are saying 'be afraid' about Kyoto, Tall answers it's 'be sensible' about it. BobWi compares spending money on gobal warming is the same as spending money on invading Iraq. Tall again says take it a bit easy, too much FUD going on. etc Later on, Tall answers BobWi that his analogy is flawed and tells him he's not being realistic
-
- In reference to Tall saying more study needs to be done on AGW, Dano as a point makes an odd analogy about the effect of gun ownership on crime. Tall makes as a counter-point an odd anology back about Hitler being against freedom because he advocated for gun control. Disputo comments on Godwin's Law. etc
-
- From the FUD discussion above, a new thread. Eli tells Tall to listen to Jeffrey Harvey about some of the points discussed. Jeff writes in that Tall is making conservative US imperial rants, discusses some matters of ecology, and tells Tall he's out of his depth and delusional. Tall answers Eli that being an expert doesn't make one predictive nor having of good judgement. Tall answers Jeff that being an expert doesn't make everything he says correct by mocking the logic of why Jeff should be listened to.
-
- New line of thought. Tim Lambert tells Tall the argument is hurting him and that he should ask for ecosystem references. Tall answers Tim that the burden of proof is on those making the claim that spending the money is justified, and that there's been a lot of good work done but more needs to be done, suggests nuclear power and alternative energy research. Eli says the sea levels will rise and cost a lot of money. Tall answers back how much will they rise? Discussion starts to flake out, going towards sun shields, age of reports, FUD from both sides, horticulture and CO2, satire, etc
- Blog goes back to Peiser/Oreskes discussions, it appears there's more of the old stuff to talk about again, as storys written by Peiser have been published still claiming to recreate the essay, but nobody's sure of when they were written vs published. Peiser has taken to emails and interviews rather than a blog.
- One interview, reported out of the main thread, Peiser mentions "I accept that it was a mistake to include the abstract you mentioned (and some other rather ambiguous ones) in my critique of the Oreskes essay." and "It certainly deflected attention from my main criticism, i.e. that her claim of a unanimous consensus on AGW (as opposed to a majority consensus) is tenuous." Of course, she never claimed there was unanimous consensus. In fact, if you read her essay, it is mostly an opinion piece, but makes a lot of very good points. Others aren't so good. The essay does not seem "scientific" overall. The idea that something is unanimous consensus probably comes from the essay saying: "In its most recent assessment, IPCC states unequivocally that the consensus of scientific opinion is that Earth's climate is being affected by human activities."
-
- Off again. z goes back to pick out two of Tall's claims, out of context, to show that Tall's rhetoric exhibit asymmetric logic (fallacy). Dano agrees with z and says that this seems a common political-style yes.
-
- Dr. Johnson contrasts the millions of years of ice cores against the couple hundred documented, and claims that Oreskes should have done more study into the long-term data and not concentrate so much on the short. coop compares the time frames, suggesting J doesn't know the difference. J clarifies recent observations aren't as good as long term. Dano says data from long ago isn't important to the current problem. Bob says J is using a strawman argument. J says you can't show today is anything out of the ordinary if you compare it to the long-term, that long term variations drown out the short term. coop says modern data is a high rate-change and that as living beings we don't have time to wait. Bob says J is contradicting himself, and then Bob uses an example which shows no contradiction (long term doesn't show show term and we're making a big deal about it). Dano complains about writing style, references, and says the planet was too different back then. J says "I'm outta here" in a fancy but belitting wayway. CEK tells J this ain't no place for science. Dano calls J a hack and says go away more quietly next time. z remarks that J's goodbye was funny. Then z complains about J's grammer and spelling, as well as method of speaking, in a style somewhat like it, even pedantic perhaps.
- Further things are discussed in the more interesting "Peiser watch" post. http://timlambert.org/2005/05/peiser2/
The point of all this is one thing; if we're going to have a discussion about something, we shouldn't be mixing what we're talking about. We've mixed in discussions of viewpoints, discussions of character, discussions of consensus, discussions of science, discussions of logic, discusssions of publications, discussions of studies, discussions of methodology, discussions on statistics, discussions on climate, discussions on politics, discussions on policy, discussions on economics, and more. Then we act like we're talking about the same thing, and we are not.
- For example, I read an explanation of how we know the CO2 in the atmosphere is ours. Well, of course it's ours. That's not the question. The question is why is the Earth holding onto it in the quantity it's holding onto. That's it. Or you can ask if CO2 levels causes warming. Or you can ask if the amount of warming is excessive. You can't ask those all at once. Especially if you then add another 20 questions in. You can't.
- What does the methods and movtivations of The Sierra Club versus those of The Cato Institute have to do with a discussion of the water vapor levels in the atmosphere affecting clouds? What does the merits of Oreskes' sample vs Peiser's sample have to do with the temperature change in Alabama since 1900? Or even the conclusions of the samples with each other? What does that some groups think the Earth is flat have to do with experiments to measure the effects of burning methane? What does a study into tree rings have to do with a study of average glacier thickness in the arctic?
To bring up again an idea that TallDave brought up that was rather mixing too many (or not enough) things into 3 AND statements. There's actually a lot of things that need to be thought about:
- That Global Warming is real: It is. The observed rise in the Earth's average temperature is real.
- That the rise in Earth's average temperature is "too much" and has to have something done about it:
- What constitutes "too much":
- What can be done about it:
- If average temperature is a good indicator if there's a problem or not:
- That humans are producing CO2: Yes, x number of tons per year, x number of tons over y years.
- That the level of CO2 produced is excessive:
- That the level of CO2 in the atmosphere has risen: Yes, x amount ppmv (or x percentage) per year, x amount ppmv (or x percentage) over y years.
- That atmospheric CO2 levels is an important indicator:
- What constitutes an important indicator:
- What else is that that is an important indicator:
- That important indicator a's levels have risen excessivly:
- That important indicator b's levels have risen excessivly:
- That there is a demonstrated consistent (positive or negative) provable correlation between indicator a and b:
- What are the other important indicators:
- Are there more relationships between x number of important indicators into a matrix:
- Can we isolate variables to prove direct cause/effect relationships:
- Are there cost/benefit ratios between action x and result y:
So, taking one mix of these questions and such:
- Is the Earth's warming excessive AND is the creation of CO2 excessive AND is the rise of CO2 in the atmosphere excessive AND (is there a correlation between creating CO2 AND rising atmospheric levels of CO2 AND if so to what degree) AND (is there a correlation between that AND rising temperatures) AND would reducing CO2 creation result in a change AND is it worth the cost.
One could probably put together the same question for Methane levels, or another set of questions for the burning of methane resulting in twice as much water as carbon dioxide, or some other set of questions for the interactions of elements w, x, y and z interacting with each other, ad nausem, ad infinitum.
[edit] MIT
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meterology
Not that the school or the title or the branch of science means anything or not. Or that anyone would ever just draw conclusions or biases without reading it first, just because it's on the Cato website.
But if anyone would like to look at a Lindzen dealy, Global Warming: The Origin and Nature of the Alleged Scientific Consensus and rip it up or compare it to the other essay, feel free.
[edit] Ego sum lux mundi qui sequitur me non ambulabit in tenebris sed habebit lucem vitae
I have added a "{{prod}}" template to the article Ego sum lux mundi qui sequitur me non ambulabit in tenebris sed habebit lucem vitae, suggesting that it be deleted according to the proposed deletion process. All contributions are appreciated, but I don't believe it satisfies Wikipedia's criteria for inclusion, and I've explained why in the deletion notice (see also "What Wikipedia is not" and Wikipedia's deletion policy). Please either work to improve the article if the topic is worthy of inclusion in Wikipedia, or, if you disagree with the notice, discuss the issues at its talk page. Removing the deletion notice will prevent deletion through the proposed deletion process, but the article may still be sent to Articles for Deletion, where it may be deleted if consensus to delete is reached, or if it matches any of the speedy deletion criteria. Awyong Jeffrey Mordecai Salleh 10:28, 16 February 2007 (UTC)
[edit] AfD nomination of Ego sum lux mundi qui sequitur me non ambulabit in tenebris sed habebit lucem vitae
I've nominated Ego sum lux mundi qui sequitur me non ambulabit in tenebris sed habebit lucem vitae, an article you created, for deletion. We appreciate your contributions, but in this particular case I do not feel that Ego sum lux mundi qui sequitur me non ambulabit in tenebris sed habebit lucem vitae satisfies Wikipedia's criteria for inclusion; I have explained why in the nomination space (see also "What Wikipedia is not" and the Wikipedia deletion policy). Your opinions on the matter are welcome; please participate in the discussion by adding your comments at Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/Ego sum lux mundi qui sequitur me non ambulabit in tenebris sed habebit lucem vitae and please be sure to sign your comments with four tildes (~~~~). You are free to edit the content of Ego sum lux mundi qui sequitur me non ambulabit in tenebris sed habebit lucem vitae during the discussion but should not remove the articles for deletion template from the top of the article; such removal will not end the deletion discussion. Thank you. Awyong J. M. Salleh 14:35, 16 February 2007 (UTC)
[edit] Hunh?
Two posts in one day about the same thing? Then a 5 day delete? For that? Thanks everyone for giving me enough time to comment.... :) And then the page was closed so I couldn't. :( So. Although I do see the thoughts of the worth of it were almost universally against it. Oh well.
Here's the article:
Ego sum lux mundi qui sequitur me non ambulabit in tenebris sed habebit lucem vitae This is the Vulgate phrase that Jesus says to the scribes and Pharisees in John 8:12 (Iohannes VIII:XII) after His actions stop the stoning of the "woman taken in adultery" (John 8:3)
Literal translations of the phrase include "i am light world who follow me not walk in darkness but keep light mode of life" or "i exist daylight mankind who accompany myself by no means travels on ignorance however manages daylight career"
English bible versions translate it thusly:
I am the light of the world: he that followeth me shall not walk in darkness, but shall have the light of life. (King James)
I am the light of the world. If you follow me, you won't be stumbling through the darkness, because you will have the light that leads to life. (New Living Translation)
The phonetic Greek is ego eimi phos kosmos akoloutheo emoi peripateo ou me peripateo en skotia alla echo phos zoe
The full text of the Stutgart Vulgate verse is iterum ergo locutus est eis Iesus dicens ego sum lux mundi qui sequitur me non ambulabit in tenebris sed habebit lucem vitae. The Clemintine Vulgate verse is the same but uses the word "lumen" instead of "lucem". The official Roman Catholic Church version is Iterum ergo locutus est eis Iesus dicens: " Ego sum lux mundi; qui sequitur me, non ambulabit in tenebris, sed habebit lucem vitae." which is in Ecclesiastical Latin and includes modern punctuation.
See also (from Wikisource)
External links
