User:Shiftchange/Predictions
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[edit] Predictions for 2006 - 2020
2006 Global annual economic growth rate under 3%. average barrel of oil ($58 - 74 prices spiking above $86). Middle East wars spreading, across Asia and Africa. continuing global population growth, rate still decreasing to the rate of just over 1%. Natural gas and light sweet crude supply disruptions and shortages in the USA. USA remains vulnerable to energy supply and price shocks, as Russian, Mexican and Chinese oil production and consumption rate results in export declines. Global unemployment trends all rising steadily, as is inflation. The world is not with the USA and the americans' indifferent ambivalence is bankrupting the nation. International political trend, reversing of entry into international agreements, free trade agenda forgotten as protectionist policies predominate. roll back environmental regulations on government-controlled lands and offshore areas,global warming hazards intensifies in most regions, 1 - 10 millions of lives affected daily, weather related natural disasters reguarly costing 10 of billions of dollars. Storm damage, bushfires, duststorms, flooding, etc across large areas. Linux, open-source free software boom globally, open source development, collobaration and intergration. Broadband surge, wifi growing in popularity, movie piracy prolific, lack of investment in film industry, personal multimedia net broadcasting.
2007 Global annual economic growth rate around 2% OPEC's oil will be re-denominated in euros. Ghawar oil field in decline. Increased global market volatility, average global inflation 15 %, annual average barrel of oil ($68 - 104). Oil sector is increasingly choosing to explore and produce in new areas where environmental and social controversies may be significant. Global energy costs increasing, energy efficiency improvements in the air transport sector. Global energy demand continues to rise, while production will stagnate temporarily and then eventually start to decline. Widespread panics and shortfalls creates capitalistic dissipation in third world, beginning a large pandemic rural retreat. luxury items reduced consumption (meat, fashion, cosmetics, etc) Poverty spreads across African continent, oil production hampered, social indicators still in retreat. Amazon forest basin mostly slashed and burned, Western hemisphere scrambling for natural resources. Embedded computers and smart machines, devices that are alert, intelligent and always on. Expensive fuel cell and hybrid cars widely available. Energy conservation and fuel substitution programs initiated. Over consumption becoming as socially unacceptable as smoking. 4th generation net is mainstream, nearly all drms cracked and failing, Individuals abandon idea of owning information, patents and agreements between individuals.
2008 North Sea and Russian exports of oil negible, average barrel of oil ($84 - 126), transport slump, natural gas and steam-driven vehicles more widely available, higher ticket prices, growing interest in self-propulsion for personal transport, growth of biodeisel, wind and solar-powered passenger vessel. American see their nation slipping into bankrupty. Monetary inflation and recession in third world, spreading to industrial nations. Mssive devaluations and major loss of revenue to all those previously profitting from intellectual property. Mass media retreating due to lack of trust, bias and conflicting interests as internet flourishes, magazine sales declining. Research and technological development continues in areas of biological and medical advances. Research and investments in fuel-saving and fuel-producing technologies. Increasing rates of alcoholism and drug abuse. tropical and temperate ice formations in rapid retreat, lack of snowfall in high altitudues and retreat of permafrost. global media business in recession, alternate underground internet news boom, global newspaper sales down internet devices spread to third world while cocooning in home products demand, reasonable wifi availability. spreading deployment of handheld internet devices, developing world in political choas, increasing international trade disputes. Compulsory military training and conscription programs growing. ther signs of global warming affecting third world, poor, elderly and the disabled. Large islands like New Zealand, Britan, Madagscar, Phillipines, Japan near major oceans and exposed coastal regions with warm waters dealing with constant severe storms, floods, high winds, etc.
2009 average barrel of oil ($122 - spiking to $180),Stagflation, oil price shock waves, a reduction in cars manufactured and sold by 25%. People inc older climates freezing in their homes as space heating prices skyrocket. Overall, industrial activity slowing down drastically as the nation goes bankrpt. global insurance industry collapse, major reductions in business and government activity. The chemical and fertilizer industry are sent reeling. aerospace industry contracting, insurance industry restructure. decommodification of all forms of information, professional education system in retreat, realestate agents, brokerages, consultants, (3 rd party members in information transactions) facing obsolesence due to technological diffusion globally. global insurance industry faces collapse, takeaway, restaurant business retreat and printing media collapse, book industry failing, luxury goods purchase spiral downward. Farmers going bankrupt and the price of food climbing, followed by renewed investment in agriculture and energy sectors, to make smaller, longer-lasting power sources. most third world economies collapsing as globalisation plunders local resources, major coastal inudations in densely populated regions, major refugee crisis continues, global transport systems in retreat, decentralisation, fragementation, isolation of more regions. chemical, detergents and plastic industries shrinking vast food shortages in the periphery. Increasing endemic poverty and feelings of hopelessness. World fish stocks seriously threatened (2 - 5 % of original populations). Large climate variations becoming regular and expected, Low lying ocean and coastal islands ravaged by increased storm intensity and periodic sea rises. spreading of new diseases following animals eg mosquitos
2010 Permanent global oil shock. Oil production facing growing supply backstops. Oil production focuses on the Middle East, severe natural gas shortages in Asia, Europe, North American worsening, average barrel of oil is more than $170, global average inflation 60 %, global average inflation 30 %, political turmoil following fuel shortages. UK, Australia and other developed nations experiencing regular power cuts. Reregulation of all aspects of energy production and distribution. Major car companies selling fuel-cell vehicle with substantial speed and range, electronic motorised segway transport popular, motor powered sports in decline Corn ethanol and other petroleum alternatives experiencing growth. Congress abolishes global aid, Government funding for roads steadily decreasing. Global tourism slump, leading to increased unemployment Cycles of fiscal deficits, trade deficits become totally unsustainable. Mass public protest, wage cuts, labour force reductions across many industries and countries. Venture capital investments retreating and inflation soaring everywhere, Grid Electrical supply becoming spotty, rationed, rolling blackouts, and less and less of it each month. Street and domestic violence growing. Major terrorist attacks, continuing biological, chemical or nuclear terrorist attacks on USA and allies. World's natural forests approaching depletion, minimal reserves protected.global climatic patterns change and shift, weather instability, increased tornado and hurricane activity. species extinction rate approaching 500 every year. Africa in choas as Aids ravages populations and economies. animal product prices soar, beef increasingly unavailable Information technology delivers massive global social change, becoming faster, hidden and ubiquitous as any and all forms of knowledge available easily and freely within a couple of mouse clicks, via network connections
2011 global hydocarbon fuel peak (gas and oil), oil prices rise steeply as production declines and many fields close. Iraq oil production declining, reduced production and delivery of fossil fuels, inflation approaching 100%, average barrel of oil is more than $250, Reductions in the licensing of fossil fuel power plants. fossil fuel transport collapse (road, sea, plane). global insurance industry collapse, financial risk and economic uncertainty growing, breakdown of international trade. A reduction in new house starts of around 50% in many countries. Civil authority in large US cities will be disintegrating. Biomanufacturing and directed evolution amid a fall in industrial production approaching 33%, personality problems, psychotic thinking and behaviour, mass rioting in developed countries. Nuclear war or nuclear explosion in low Earth orbit (disruption of satelites and ozone layer). Increasing conflicts, starvation, economic recession in developing nations. Large changes in animal and plant biogeography continuing. Sewage and watse disposal systems failing, The internet and various sub networks will go be going down in blackouts and brownouts, Efforts to move low lying nuclear facilities away from sea level begin. noticeable sea level rises, mangroves and wetlands enduring ecosystem stressall major ice formations disappearing. World's coral reefs face destruction. Inland lakes shrinking below 5% capacity. thawing of permafrost, and the migration of warm weather species into far northern and southern latitudes. Health systems collapsing, lack of services, hygeine standards in densily populated areas, industrial agriculture in dramatic decline. Extreme global geopolitical instability, Oil producing persian gulf states in decline. Africa plunges into a period of pure barbarism, as food, water, shelter go unprovided for.
2012 average barrel of oil is more than $250 - $500 per barrel and rising. Permanent oil shock, Saudi Arabian and Iraq oil production peaks, beggining decline of last major oil region, Global banking collapse, financial shocks that affect wealth of large groups of people. Rates of suicide, depression, anxiety at extremely high levels. Merchandise trade dropping, radical social changes, Skyrocketing interest rates, hyperinflation, and widespread increases in unemployment rates of up to 25%-40% annually in developed countries, global environmental war economy, many liberties lost. Broader program of ecological fiscal reform Robber baron capitalism, criminal economies, increasing organised crime, neo-fascist regimes creating new countries. Individual energy efficiency and conservation become fashionable, electrical power production declining in some areas. local water shortages, disputes and wars micro-hydro, ground source, and geothermal energy supplies expanding Manufacturing, agriculture and transportation contracting as oil prices rise to unheralded figures. World agriculture under severe stress. Unprecedented national & household debt. South American continent following Africa's demise, protests, riots, unemployment spreading. 100's millions of people dying from AIDS. Nationwide rationing and safety net plans so that the most needy. World refugee crisis intensifies, escaping from 3 overcrowded and environmentally degraded areas (North America, Western Europe and North East Asia). Global birth rate becoming one child per couple. Weather extremes intensify globally, drought, winds, sandstorms, flooding, ground subsidence spreading into new regions, intensifying. etc. Growing apostasy and individuals turn to science abandon religions and other logical fallacies. major global recession begins global banking collapse, panicky run on banks, brokerage firms and mutual funds # Information technology industry contracting to high tech regions. Average silicon chips contain a billion or more transistors and run at speeds exceeding 25 billion cycles per second
2013 Global population decreasing, Canada's production oil production dropping considerably, global oil production reducing at between 7 - 14 % annually. electrical grids collapsing all around the world. Road and transport structures contracting. Chronic oil scarcity producing a large recession affecting most societies, developing into plunging depression. liquidity crisis, a sudden, stomach-churning plunge in stock prices, widespread bankruptcy throughout most industries. Global food production shrinking by 10%-15%. organic farming becoming popular. Marked increase in disputes involving water. energy consumption still increasing while energy efficiency standards developing. rail passenger travel increasing, mag lev development, trams and sailing construction, revival. Driving for pleasure banned as battery, fuel cell cars in high tech regions, bicycle and horse drawn carrage revival a number of super-disasters driven by human-induced climate change. Many instances of average maximum temperatures rising through lower atmospehere to ground levels, late into the evening. tropical forests, savannas, deserts and remnant native grasslands undergoing physical alterations due to global climate change. more and more people voluntarily cutting personal consumption. Intensification of ecological degradation, increased topsoil and water depletion. food and everyday items become increasing expensive. Global human consumption begins to de-accelerate and reverse. disease (antibiotic-resistant and much more dangerous bacteria) causing fatalities in new areas. massive political change and wealth redistribution, global rioting, property redistribution.
2014 Depression continues, increasing severe hardship around the world, inflation approaching 1600 %, mass hunger, global water shortage, serious soil degradation farm cultivation dwindling to small pockets of remaining good soil. die-off from HIV/AIDS other biological problems SARS, West Nile, bird flu, increasing resistance to antibiotics and other worsening medical disasters. Global oil production will also be declining at 14 - 22% per year. Even more layoffs, bankruptcies, electric power grids falling apart. Country after country either disintegrates into anarchy or becomes a police state. global changes in the intensity and magnitude of rain and snowfall. Uncontrolled methane outgassing, glacial recession and melting of the ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica. break up of West Antartic Ice sheet Ice sheets dissolving, sea rises accelerated, begins to affect urban areas such as London, New Orleans, Asia and Florida, Miami face inudation, major sea wall construction beginning. net die-off of about 300,000 people per day for the last six years. Decession, de-integration or reverse globalization of the world economy with sever conflict. Wierd climatic and atmospheric fluctuations
2015 Everyday life has undergone drastic changes in response to global warming and lack of cheap fuel, 100's of millions affected daily. Thermohaline conveyor collapse as precise weather forecast exist and computational cosmology problems solved a permanent and deepening shortage of petrol and diesel, natural gas everywhere. Cloned people becoming public, simple neural circuits developed. World's weapons, armies and military equipment are abolished, turned into basic goods. 'rude to be rich' period All indications of material wealth will be symbols for targetted attack New political ethic in which possessions, other than essential needs are abandoned. scientific rationale will reign supreme as a deep ecological survivalist discourse predominates mediated communications, break up of West Antartic Ice sheet, mountain top cloud forests and alpine ecosystems under fatal stress, Artic ice no longer exists, massive wildlife extinctions Netherlands, Bangladesh inundated, river deltas flooded, enclosed coastal reserves threatened by sea level rise. Russia, China and Canada developing new lands in artic and high altitude regions in response to global warming and landscape changes. Huge species extinction and changes in global climate patterns. Increased the rate of evaporation from dams, rivers, soil and vegetation leading to more water shortages. ecological debt tax on liqued fuels taxing previous high polluters such as motorists, plane travellers, meat eaters, etc
2016 Carbon fuel energy production, consumption monitored and regulated as noxious biological agent. Strict energy rationing, regulation, monitoring. bans on the production and sale of cars for private use, residential and highway construction halted, and CO2 emission over 400 ppm Taxes on fuels increased, blowing garbage and trash constant filthy water, increasing soot and fine particles emissions from bio-fuel combustion, abandoned and rotting nuclear facilities dispersing contaminents, spreading cannibalism and roaming gangs. Pacific over fishing, logging and coral depletion endemic. Coral reef bleaching in tropical areas occuring every year. ISS abadoned due to costs, failed colonies on Mars abandoned, all human spaceflight programs cancelled,
2017 Industrial activity decreasing at 60%-90% by country and by sector. slavery in farming regions, Toxic chemical fires, Global inflation rate is currently around 500 %, severe genetic mutations, Natural gas reserves in the Middle East reduce output significantly, deep sea natural gas tapped, vegetative die-off releasing copious quantities of carbon disoxide in the atmosphere.
2018 huge majority of lakes and aquifers depleted, return to low energy primitive and subsidence lifestyles, underearth constructions, rise of nightime nomads hunting out last vestages of the now destroyed modern civilisation
2019 low cost uranium reserves depleted, hydrocarbon production approaching very small neglegible amounts prices reaching 10 of thousands of dollars per litre.
2020 harmful effects of electro-magnetic pulse radiation reaching surface in regular storms, overdoor recreational activities curtailed
